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The market equilibrium occurs at the intersection of the downward-sloping demand curve D and the upward-sloping supply curve S. The equilibrium point E reconciles buyers and sellers to agree on quantity Q exchanged and at what price P this transaction takes place
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This paper investigates the implications for coal supply security for the domestic South African market when faced with weaker export demand. A model is proposed of domestic coal trade via a trading hub which links coal production to consumer markets. An application of the theory for equilibrium price discovery at the mine-trader and trader-consume...
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Citations
... Cui and Wei (2017) study the phenomenon of thermal-coal price distortion through economic theoretical modeling and empirical cointegration analysis from the perspective of market forces [20]. Rademeyer et al. (2021) find that a profit-maximizing trader will seek to sell more volumes to domestic consumers of higher grade coal to compensate for earnings lost due to lower export volumes [21]. With the goal of minimizing the expected cost of the government (buyer) and maximizing the profit of the enterprise (supplier), examine the optimal reserve of emergency materials and investigate the coordination of an emergency supply chain [22]. ...
The total quota control and reserve of rare earths are important means for the sustainable development and utilization of rare-earth resources. Focusing on the government reserve of rare-earth products under stochastic demand, this paper analyses the interactive decisions of the government and the rare-earth firms from a game-theoretic perspective. The government determines the total quantity, reserve quantity and reserve–release quantity of the rare-earth products to maximize social warfare, while the firm decides the price of rare-earth products to maximize its own profit. The results show that the production cost and the expected net present value (NPV) of the reserve are important factors affecting the government’s decisions. When the expected NPV of the reserve is below a threshold, the government adopts the no-reserve strategy: it determines only a total quota index that maximizes the current-period social welfare but keeps no reserve. When the expected NPV of a reserve is higher than the above threshold but lower than the production cost, the government adopts the low-reserve strategy: it determines a total quota index and a low reserve that are both in increasing in the expected NPV of reserve, and will release the reserve as many as possible if there is a supply shortage. When the expected NPV of a reserve is higher than both the above threshold and the production cost, the government adopts the high-reserve strategy: it sets a total quota index which is sufficiently large to cover the entire market demand, reserves a large amount, and releases part of the reserve to completely fill the demand gap (if any).
... The LSTM-DNN model results are compared to the multivariable Perceptron neural networks (MLP) and support vector machines (SVM). Rademeyer et al. (2020) examined the implications of coal prices for the South African domestic market. They had well demonstrated the distribution of multi-product coal production, pricing for domestic markets through mathematical optimization. ...
This paper estimates the coal prices using two-time series and combined radial basis function (RBF) neural network methods. The time series method was simulated using the Monte Carlo simulation, while the combined RBF neural network method was employed using MATLAB software. The required data, including historical daily coal prices from 2018 to 2020, were collected. This hybrid method has eventually approximated the coal price with acceptable precision concerning the time series method. Due to the high differences among historical data in some periods, the root means squared error (RMSE), 1.49, and the correlation coefficient, 0.93651, of the combined model have provided a better prediction than the time series method RMSE, 2.68, and the correlation coefficient, 0.32. The results revealed that the combination of Brownian motion with mean return (BMMR) and RBF NN model (CBRN) has eventually been able to satisfactorily reduce the error value considering the data differences due to the critical factors, including economic and political conditions. The hybrid method can be used as an appropriate method for estimating prices in many financial markets.
... As discussions on the role of coal in the global energy mix continue, it is worthwhile to consider what impact a global shift away from coal fuel and a subsequent deterioration in international coal trade would have on South Africa's coal market and, by extension, South Africa's economy. The DOTRAMOD model for domestic coal trade, as proposed by Rademeyer et al. (2020b), was developed with the purpose of clarifying the relationships spanning South Africa's domestic coal industry and connecting this industry to the international coal market. However, this model does not account for the mining investment problem which drives the supply-side equation of the market equilibrium model. ...
... The objective of this research paper is to build the mining investment problem into the model of domestic coal trade introduced in Rademeyer et al. (2020b) by taking account of the miner's profit. That is, an algorithm is proposed in this paper that effectively allows for the miners to evaluate the future profitability of their operations and the subsequent decision on whether to continue producing coal or shut down the mine. ...
... DOTRAMOD is a computational model of domestic coal trade in which trade is facilitated by a single trader intermediary (Rademeyer et al. 2020b). This construction is illustrated in Fig. 1. ...
This paper investigates the implications for coal supply security for the domestic South African market when faced with weaker export demand. It expands on a previously introduced model of domestic coal trade, DOTRAMOD, by accounting for mining profit, the opening of new mines and the closing of loss-making mines. The results indicate that declining demand for exported coal would result in declining profits for multi-product mines. This would lead to the closure of some mines and reduced coal supply to domestic power producers. These results highlight the importance of the mine investment problem in commodity market studies.
There is an everlasting distance and interdependence between mines and end-users as it involves different types of equipment, infrastructure, and facilities, including excavators, trucks, processing plants, stockpiles, railways, ports, ships, etc. Precise management of a complex mine-to-customer supply chain system is essential to guarantee delivering mineral products from remote mines to overseas clients in a well-organised way. In the literature of mining management, both academic scholars and industrial managers are paying more and more attention to develop state-of-the-art mine supply chain management (MSCM) methodologies. To meet this emerging demand, this study aims to conduct a comprehensive and up-to-date literature review on MSCM research topics by evaluating over 200 papers, mostly published in the last decade (2010–2021). We analyse the characteristics of the reviewed papers from perspectives of the mine supply chain's links and the interdisciplinary classification. Thus, we classify these papers into nine main categories, namely, capacity planning, logistics, inventory control, network design, economic issues (e.g., pricing), efficiency evaluation, risk control, environmental protection, and production scheduling. Based on this classification, we present potential research opportunities and managerial insights in the area of MSCM.
