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The map highlights the locations impacted by heavy rainfall and fire in the Hawaiian islands. Circular dots indicate the location of rain gauges used for estimating precipitation from Hurricane Lane, and the 4-day accumulated rainfall totals (mm) from August 22-25, 2018. Also included are the locations of the wildfires on Maui and O ' ahu with their burned areas denoted in red and the locations of the Kalaeloa Airport (PHJR) and Lahaina, Maui (PHJH) weather stations used for analysis denoted with purple triangles.
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Hurricane Lane (2018) was an impactful event for the Hawaiian Islands and provided a textbook example of the compounding hazards that can be produced from a single storm. Over a 4-day period, the island of Hawaiʻi received an island-wide average of 424 mm (17 in.) of rainfall, with a 4-day single-station maximum of 1,444 mm (57 in.), making Hurrica...
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Context 1
... local networks. A 25-yr (1990-2014) time series of daily rainfall maps on a 250-m grid were utilized to characterize past rainfall events [see Longman et al. (2018) for a complete description of local networks and data sources in Hawaiʻi]. In total, 156 rainfall stations with continuous data over the 4-day event were identified across the state (Fig. 2). Mean monthly rainfall climatologies were obtained from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawai'i ( Giambelluca et al. ...
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Citations
... The first major bleaching event documented in Maui Nui occurred just before the start of our timeseries (2015), and a second bleaching event of similar magnitude occurred during our timeseries in 2019 (Couch et al. 2017;McCarthy, Winston Pomeroy, and Smith 2024;Winston et al. 2022;Yadav et al. 2023). Hurricane Lane narrowly missed Maui Nui in 2018 but still generated a large swell, while a historic south swell impacted the region in 2022 (Nugent et al. 2020;Osher 2022). Finally, changes in human behavior due to the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., lockdowns, temporary cessation of tourism) altered anthropogenic impacts on Maui Nui's reefs in 2020 (Weng et al. 2023). ...
High spatial or temporal variability in community composition makes it challenging for natural resource managers to predict ecosystem trajectories at scales relevant to management. This is commonly the case in nearshore marine environments, where the frequency and intensity of disturbance events vary at the sub‐kilometer to meter scale, creating a patchwork of successional stages within a single ecosystem. The successional stage of a community impacts its stability, recovery potential, and trajectory over time in predictable ways. Here we demonstrate the value of successional theory for interpreting fine‐scale community heterogeneity using Hawaiian coral reefs as a case study. We tracked benthic community dynamics on 36 forereefs over a 6‐year period (2017–2023) that captures impacts from high surf events, a marine heatwave, and unprecedented shifts in human behavior due to the COVID‐19 pandemic. We document high spatial variation in benthic community composition that was only partially explained by island and environmental regime. Through hierarchical clustering, we identify three distinct community types that appear to represent different successional stages of reef development. Reefs belonging to the same community type exhibited similar rates of change in coral cover and structural complexity over time, more so than reefs located on the same island. Importantly, communities that were indicative of early succession (low coral cover reefs dominated by stress‐tolerant corals) were most likely to experience an increase in coral cover over time, while later‐stage successional communities were more likely to experience coral decline. Our findings highlight the influence of life history and successional stage on community trajectories. Accounting for these factors, not simply overall coral cover, is essential for designing effective management interventions. Site‐specific management that accounts for a community's unique composition and history of disturbance is needed to effectively conserve these important ecosystems.
... While heavy rain is a familiar feature of tropical storms, the strong convection near the storm centre is also associated with descending air around the storm's periphery. This subsiding air is warm and dry, and together with intense storm-driven winds, could increase the risk of fire hazard in the periphery of the hurricane, especially if preexisting conditions predisposed the area to fire (Nugent et al., 2020). ...
... The 2017/18 wet season (November-April) was relatively wet resulting in grass accumulation. Then, during the three months leading up to Hurricane Lane (May-July), a drying pattern was observed in leeward areas (Nugent et al., 2020). ...
Of all natural disasters, those especially liable to exhaust capacity are those that occur without a precedent, and cause surprise to public administration officials. This paper addresses this issue. Surprise can be mitigated by considering downward counterfactuals, which can be viewed as contributing to surprise management. These are alternative realizations of historical events, where things turned for the worse. Disaster risk may be mitigated by focusing on downward counterfactuals. Particular focus is given to the earthquake and volcanic risk at Campi Flegrei, in the Naples region of Italy, where the bradyseism crisis of 1982–1983 is considered from a downward counterfactual perspective.
... The summer peak is likely related to a higher frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs). These TCs bring high winds and intense rainfall when they pass near the state(Nugent et al. 2020). Since these TCs originate in the eastern Pacific and have a westward-moving track, the affected areas are mostly over the southeastern part of the state, i.e., Hawai'i Island and Maui.Most divisions have the same general seasonality as the statewide mean, i.e., a wet winter and a drier summer(Figure 3). ...
The Hawaiian Islands have some of the most spatially diverse rainfall patterns on earth, affected by prevailing trade winds, midlatitude disturbances, tropical cyclones, and complex island topography. However, it is the only state in the U.S. that does not have assigned climate divisions (boundaries defining climatically homogeneous areas), which excludes it from many national climate analyses. This study establishes, for the first time, official climate divisions for the State of Hawai‘i using cluster analysis applied to monthly gridded rainfall data from 1990 to 2019. Twelve climate divisions have been identified: two divisions were found each for the islands of Kaua‘i (Leeward Kaua‘i and Windward Kaua‘i), O‘ahu (Waianae and Ko‘olau), and Maui County (Leeward Maui Nui and Windward Maui Nui), and six divisions were identified for Hawai‘i Island (Leeward Kohala, Windward Kohala, Kona, Hawai‘i Mauka, Ka‘u, and Hilo). The climate divisions were validated using a statewide area-weighted division-average rainfall index which successfully captured the annual cycle and interannual rainfall variations in the statewide average rainfall series. Distinct rainfall seasonality features and interannual/decadal variability are found among the different divisions; Leeward Maui Nui, Leeward Kaua‘i, Kona, and Hawai‘i Mauka displayed the most significant rainfall seasonality. The western Hawai‘i Island divisions show the most significant long-term decreasing trends in annual rainfall during the past 100 years (ranging from -2.5% to -5.0% per decade). With these climate divisions now available, Hawai‘i will have access to numerous operational climate analyses that will greatly improve climatic research, monitoring, education and outreach, as well as forecasting applications.
... Meanwhile, Maui and Oʻahu recorded wildfires, with 2577 acres burning on Maui and 400 acres burning on Oʻahu. 9 Trauernicht points to the invasive grasses 10 which grow prodigiously during rains, with root systems that survive burns. They outcompete native grasses and during droughts serve as kindling. ...
Maui as an idea and experience to be consumed by visitors permeated our work even in the aftermath of the disaster.
The attacks on our resources are ongoing and insidious.
The tourist industry of Hawaiʻi, dependent on international commercial air travel and private jets, contributes directly to the climate catastrophe.
We are advocates for healthy families, healthy communities, and a healthy planet. We believe in the human right to clean air, clean water, and livable temperatures for the people. This puts us in opposition to tourism and militarism that have for too long been the basis of the economy of Hawaiʻi, Ka Pae ʻAina.
... Hurricane Lane passed close to the Hawaiian Islands on 23-26 August 2018, where it caused heavy rains. It produced the highest total rainfall of any tropical cyclone ever recorded in the state of Hawaii (Beven and Wroe 2019, Nugent et al. 2020). The daily precipitation at the CFHTweather station peaked on August 23 at 200 mm, delivering one quarter of the calendar year's precipitation in one day. ...
Few ponds are found in the permeable volcanic landscape of Hawaii. After Hurricane Lane passed close to Hawaii Island in August 2018, causing record rainfalls, a pond temporarily emerged on the Mauna Kea summit plateau that had never been reported before. We characterize the pond using satellite observations and electrical resistivity tomography. The shallow pond is located on glacial till 3,594 m a.s.l., and was visible for less than 1 week. The geophysical survey, carried out 10 months after the pond's appearance and disappearance, revealed a layer of low electrical resistivity at depths of about 1–3 m below the surface, which, based on laboratory analysis, likely represents a perennial body of water well protected from evaporation. The existence of a third pond, in addition to Lake Waiau and Pu‘upōhaku Pond, in the previously glaciated area suggests perching layers are not uncommon. Montmorillonite, a 3-layer shrink-swell clay that can help to perch water, was identified in the Lake Waiau area. Mineral analysis on surface samples of the third pond did not reveal such a clay mineral.
... Wildland fires in Hawai'i are most extensive in dry and mesic nonnative grasslands and shrublands, which cover 24% of the total land area in the state and account for approximately 80% of annual area burned [96], although, under severe drought conditions, wildfires have affected native wet forests [97,98]. During drought, wildfire risk in grasslands increases rapidly, making drought an important contributor to the invasive grass-wildfire cycle [95,99]. Land use transitions from active agriculture to fallow areas dominated by non-native fire-prone grasses and shrubs [41] combined with recurring droughts are expected to increase the risk of future wildfires in Hawai'i [100]. ...
... grass-wildfire cycle [95,99]. Land use transitions from active agriculture to fallow areas dominated by non-native fire-prone grasses and shrubs [41] combined with recurring droughts are expected to increase the risk of future wildfires in Hawaiʻi [100]. ...
Drought is a prominent feature of Hawaiʻi’s climate. However, it has been over 30 years since the last comprehensive meteorological drought analysis, and recent drying trends have emphasized the need to better understand drought dynamics and multi-sector effects in Hawaiʻi. Here, we provide a comprehensive synthesis of past drought effects in Hawaiʻi that we integrate with geospatial analysis of drought characteristics using a newly developed 100-year (1920–2019) gridded Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dataset. The synthesis examines past droughts classified into five categories: Meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic drought. Results show that drought duration and magnitude have increased significantly, consistent with trends found in other Pacific Islands. We found that most droughts were associated with El Niño events, and the two worst droughts of the past century were multi-year events occurring in 1998–2002 and 2007–2014. The former event was most severe on the islands of O’ahu and Kaua’i while the latter event was most severe on Hawaiʻi Island. Within islands, we found different spatial patterns depending on leeward versus windward contrasts. Droughts have resulted in over $80 million in agricultural relief since 1996 and have increased wildfire risk, especially during El Niño years. In addition to providing the historical context needed to better understand future drought projections and to develop effective policies and management strategies to protect natural, cultural, hydrological, and agricultural resources, this work provides a framework for conducting drought analyses in other tropical island systems, especially those with a complex topography and strong climatic gradients.
... Rather, they are typically "compound" events, occurring in combination (Raymond et al., 2020), and with ongoing environmental, historical, and societal stresses. Recent (spatial or temporal) compound events include extreme rainfall, flooding and wildfire (Nugent et al., 2020); a particularly destructive 2018 typhoon season; land and ocean heatwaves and coral bleaching and death (Couch et al., 2017; NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information., 2020); El Niño and drought (Annamalai et al., 2015); and wave, tide, and surge events with rising sea levels (Vitousek et al., 2017). While the need for cross-sectoral climate adaptation is great, the Pacific Islands are relatively data-scarce compared to the Continental United States, and IPCC and NCA assessments are insufficient to inform island-scale policy (Keener et al., 2012;Moser, 2013; National Academies of Sciences Engineering Medicine, 2021). ...
As the impacts and risks from climate change increase, the climate assessment landscape has expanded in scope and application, resulting in the desire for more information relevant to local decision-making. Some regions lack detailed climate projections and a body of consensus findings about sector-specific impacts, and there is a need for actionable, culturally cognizant, translated climate information suitable for integration into operations and management, budgeting, funding proposals, and domestic and international policy. The Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment, or PIRCA, is the subject of this decade-long case study illustrating the need, development, and benefit of creating and sustaining a nuanced, collaborative, and deliberately inclusive climate assessment effort among researchers and practitioners in Hawai‘i and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). Using external evaluations done in 2013 and 2021, and our observations as participants in the process, we describe regional adaptive capacity challenges—an important component of the decision context for PIRCA stakeholders—and analyze the role of the PIRCA network in accelerating climate adaptation. We also examine how regional and national assessments complement each other, and how assessment processes can aid in translation to sub-national decision making across the climate science-policy interface. Results reveal components of the PIRCA that are foundational to its effectiveness: framing climate information in human and decision-centric ways; use of inclusive and non-extractive methods; willingness to shift approaches to meet stakeholder objectives; leveraging the resources of the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) and other boundary organizations; taking the time to build relationships; and creating a dedicated position to sustain collaborations and relationships within the region and at larger assessment scales. Our experience and the feedback received through the evaluation suggest that these lessons are transferable to other regions and scales, and that sustained and collaborative regional climate assessments can serve a key function in complementing major national and international assessments, by translating and more effectively targeting information to meet local needs in support of regional climate adaptation and policymaking.
... seasons. In the dry season, an extreme precipitation event is often attributed to hurricanes or TCs (e.g., Nugent et al., 2020). The TC activity is more favorable under El Niño conditions (Chu and Wang, 1997;Jin et al., 2014) and associates with the Western North Pacific (WNP) biennial oscillations (Luo et al., 2020). ...
Flooding is a significant threat to life and property in Hawaiʻi. As climate warming continues to alter precipitation patterns and hydrological processes in the tropics, characterizing the shifting patterns in magnitude, seasonality, and location of floods would improve our understanding of the consequences and better prepare us for future flood events. In this study, 84 rain gauges and 111 crest gauges across five major Hawaiian Islands were analyzed from 1970 to 2005. We estimated trends in the annual maximum daily rainfall (RFmax) and the annual peak flow (PFmax) using the Mann-Kendall test and Senʻs slope. Subsequently, we examined the association between PFmax and rainfall. Then, we assessed temporal shifting by combining circular analysis with Senʻs slope. The main identified trends were a decrease in RFmax and PFmax (67% and 61% of all gauges, respectively). The physiography of the Hawaii islands (i.e., windward vs. leeward) has little contribution to both trends. In addition, RFmax trend cannot be fully attributed to PFmax trend, and in many cases, RFmax and PFmax did not occur coincidently. The timing of RFmax and PFmax occurred earlier in the wet season during the El Niño years. Therefore, RFmax and PFmax’s timing have shifted earlier from 1970 to 2005 likely due to the change of El Niño. These findings have implications for assessing flood risk. Our finding will aid watershed management and flood mitigation, and can increase resilience of downstream communities and near-shore environments.
... Unlike the winter season, Hawai'i experiences very few mid-latitude rain-producing synoptic disturbances in summer. Tropical cyclones from the tropical eastern Pacific occasionally bring intense rainfall when they reach the Hawai'i area (Nugent et al., 2020). While the summer climate features steadier trade winds and fewer mid-latitude disturbances, total rainfall varies notably from year to year, with a standard deviation of about 25% of its seasonal mean. ...
Summer precipitation in Hawai'i accounts for 40% of the annual total and provides important water sources. However, our knowledge about its variability remains limited. Here we show that statewide Hawai'i summer rainfall (HSR) variability exhibits two distinct regimes: quasi-biennial (QB, ~2 years) and interdecadal (~30–40 years). The QB variation is linked to alternating occurrences of the Western North Pacific (WNP) cyclone and anticyclone in successive years, which is modulated by the intrinsic El Niño–Southern Oscillation biennial variability and involves a positive feedback between atmospheric Rossby waves and underlying sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The interdecadal variation of HSR is largely modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation through affecting upstream low-level humidity that affects topographic rainfall. HSR shows weak long-term drying trend during 1920–2019. This first description of the major physical drivers of summer rainfall variability provides key information for seasonal rainfall prediction in Hawai'i.
... Although less frequent, ENP TCs are also known to affect the Hawaiian islands occasionally (Chiu, 1983;Coffman & Noy, 2012). For example, Hurricane Lane battered the Big Island with up to 1444 mm of rain during August 2018 (Nugent et al., 2020;Wood et al., 2019). Finally, the moisture from some of these TCs is shown to cause substantial rainfall in the southwest United States and contribute significantly to the water budget of that region (Corbosiero et al., 2009;Ritchie et al., 2011). ...
Plain Language Summary
During an El Niño, the warm water that traditionally resides in the tropical western Pacific migrates to the eastern part of the basin, causing an increase in the upper‐ocean heat content and thereby enhancing tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the eastern North Pacific (ENP). This is because heat energy available at the ocean surface is extracted by storms passing over them and used as fuel for their intensification. Despite this knowledge, the question of whether an accurate information of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) improves seasonal predictability of ENP TCs remains unanswered to date. In this study, we show that unlike traditional indices of ENSO that are based on fixed thresholds and are almost empirical, the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI) improves the predictability of ENP TCs significantly at lead times of 5–6 months facilitated by the ocean's memory. By accounting for changes in the Walker circulation, and associated east‐west shifts in the location of deep convection and warm water volume, ELI better explains interannual variations in the upper‐ocean heat content in the ENP TC basin. These results promote the potential use of the ELI for seasonal forecasts of ENP TC activity.
