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The availability of land for energy crop production in different countries in the EU 15. 

The availability of land for energy crop production in different countries in the EU 15. 

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The overall objective of the Biomass Energy Europe (BEE) project is to improve the accuracy and comparability of future biomass resource assessments for energy by reducing heterogeneity, increasing harmonisation and exchanging knowledge. First, similarities and differences between the various approaches, methodologies and datasets used in biomass r...

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... Energy crops on agricultural land and marginal land Here a comparison of results for the availability of land for energy crops in the EU15 is presented. More results will be made available in the future. All studies indicate considerable amount of agricultural land potentially available for energy crops in the EU. Figure 1 shows the land available for energy crops in selected studies and scenarios. The comparison shows that variations between results are growing in future projections. The lowest potential is estimated by Thrän et al [39] in case of the environmentally oriented scenario and in the RENEW project [33, 34]. Values start from around 4 Mha in 2000 to between 14 and 17 Mha. The highest estimates are given in REFUEL [32], in case of the ‘high estimate’ scenario. The highest value is about 79 Mha in 2040, which is calculated by Ericsson and Nilsson [4]. This estimate gives extremely high potential also in most countries and is a consequence of the simple assumption that 0.24 ha per capita is needed for food production and rest of land may be managed for energy crops. When the results for the EU27 are disaggregated into two groups, namely the EU15 (old EU member states) and EU12 (new EU member states), the variability in results appears to be different for these two regions. The variability of results is significantly lower for EU15 than for EU12. The estimates by Thrän et al [39] for EU15 in 2020 are an exception and the same estimates are rather moderate in results for EU12. Further, an analysis of national results also reveals interesting results. Thrän et al [39] projects no potential for energy crops in case of the environmental scenario in Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and United Kingdom. However, in EEA [16] opposite trends are projected for some countries. Despite of growing trend in averages in Greece, Finland, Portugal and Sweden the trend of land availability is considerable decreasing. In some countries like Spain, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Poland, Bulgaria and Romania the differences are higher than in other countries. The assumption made by Ericsson and Nilsson [4] of 0,24 ha per capita for food also gives interesting results. In most countries land availability estimated with this assumption and methodology results in the highest value. There are some exception, countries like Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands, where there is no land available according to this assumption. 3.4 Forestry and forestry residues Figure 2 provides an overview of biomass potentials of forestry and forestry residues of some of the studies that are investigated. More results will be made available in the future. These potentials reported by Thrän et al. [39] and by Ericsson and Nilsson [4] amount to 2.9 EJ/year for the year 2000, which decreases to 2.2 EJ/year for 2030. The numbers refer to technical potentials which are derived from forest and logging residues as well as additional feelings in the case of Thrän et al. [39]. The figure for 2030 given by Ericsson and Nilsson [4] includes forest residues and forest industry by-products under a scenario of high biomass removal. Thrän et al. [39] assume that future demand for roundwood will increase stronger than the amount of fellings. This results in a decrease of the estimated bioenergy potential between 2000 and 2030. Ericsson and Nilsson give a further estimate for the technical potential in 2030 under a scenario of low biomass removal which is 0.5 EJ/year lower than the number stated above. Estimates by Ericsson and his colleague for the years 2010 and 2020 are lower than those reported by other studies. Technical potentials with consideration of environmental sustainability are estimated by EEA [16, 17] and RENEW [33]. When considering complementary fellings (wood balance fraction) based on unused forest growth, the given figures vary between 0.7 EJ/year in the year 2000 [33], 2.2 EJ/year in 2010 [16, 17], 0.8 – 2.1 EJ/year in 2020 [16, 17, 33] and 2.1 EJ/year in 2030 [16, 17]. While the results of RENEW [33] are based on EU27 (excl. Malta and Cyprus), the EEA [16, 17] estimates refer only to 21 EU countries. The given sustainable potentials in RENEW [33] seem low when considering the fact that forest residues, thinnings, roots, stumps and additional fellings (wood balance fellings) are included. However, the study accounts for different factors which reduce the biomass potential considerably. These factors reflect the fraction of woody biomass used for industry and the fraction which cannot be removed for ecological or other reasons. Furthermore, only forest available for wood supply is considered. In contrary, the environmentally sustainable potentials listed in EEA [16, 17] seem rather high which can be explained by the fact that they (at least in the ‘Maximum scenario’) do not only cover regular forestry residues, but also complementary fellings and residues from these fellings. Under a scenario considering protected forest areas and biodiversity, the potentials given by EEA [16, 17] are lower: 1.8 EJ/year in 2010 and 1.6 in 2020 and 2030. Furthermore, without the consideration of complementary fellings the numbers are much lower, equalling only 0.6 EJ/year in 2010 and 0.7 EJ/year in 2020 and 2030. The results of the study represent the average resource potentials per unit of forest area in a pixel based map of the 'environmentally compatible' resource potentials (technical potential). It was then aggregated from 1x1km to NUTS 2 level for 21 EU countries. The estimated potentials by EEA [16, 17] do not differ much in time, depending on scenario the potential is 0.6 – 2.2 EJ in 2010 and 0.7 – 2.1 EJ in 2030. The implementation potential as reported by REFUEL [32] for the EU27 represents the lowest estimates with 0.1 EJ/year in 2010 and an increase to 0.5 EJ/year in 2020 and 2030. These estimates cover second- generation biofuels not only from forestry residues and wood industry by-products, but also from lignocellulosic agricultural residues such as straw. However, no complementary fellings are considered here. In contrast to REFUEL [32] the implementation potential given by Siemons et al. [37] for the EU27 is much higher and amounts to 1.8, 2.0 and 2.2 EUJ/year in the years 2000, 2010 and 2020, respectively. These numbers cover bioenergy derived from forest by-products and wood fuels. 3.51 Agricultural residues and organic waste Results are currently not available. More detailed results will be made available in the ...

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