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The area of research: (a) Croatia's position in Europe; (b) territory of Croatia with the spatial distribution of 74 meteorological stations included in the standard meteorological network in three viticulture zones according to the Winkler index (GDD); B (stations 12–26), C I (stations 1–11), C II (stations 27–74). The stations that have available data from 1961 are represented by blue stars, and those covering the period from 1981 to 2018 are marked by red dots. Squares present reference vineyards/winery locations (V1–V7, green) where phenological dates were available with variable degrees from 1994 to 2018 (Table 3). Different shades of grey areas indicate the current valid zoning in agreement with GDD division in Croatia from 2013 (source: EUROSTAT and DG AGRI C.03 Cartography DG AGRI GIS‐Team 09/2015 c Euro Geographics for administrative boundaries; https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/sites/agriculture/files/wine/statistics/wine‐growing‐regions_en.pdf)
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Since changes in temperature and precipitation have different effects on (a) all developmental stages of grapevines in most of the wine regions worldwide (i.e., on their phenological characteristics) and (b) different varieties, a comprehensive database of bioclimatic indices has been calculated and analysed for Croatian wine producing regions. The...
Citations
... This study examines the present and future climate suitability of Coffea arabica cultivation in California. Numerous studies have examined modern and future climate suitability of agricultural crops using various approaches (Fraga et al. 2016;Fain et al. 2018;Omazić et al. 2020). We review the scientific literature on climate suitability of coffee, assemble high-resolution climate datasets and create spatial models for climate suitability of coffee cultivation. ...
Increased market for specialty coffee and climate volatility in traditional coffee‐growing regions of the world has prompted interest in cultivating coffee outside of the tropics, including in California. While several small coffee farms have established in California over the past couple decade, no studies have identified and quantified climatically suitable regions for growing coffee. We developed a model of Coffea arabica suitability based on agronomic studies of thermal constraints to coffee cultivation, combining heat and cold intolerance with energy requirements for maturation. This model was applied to agricultural lands across California using high‐resolution climate datasets for both modern (1991–2020) and projected near‐term (2021–2050) conditions. We explored the potential for farm thermal management approaches—such as using agroforestry shade trees—to buffer temperature extremes and augment thermal suitability. Results indicate that, in the absence of thermal management approaches, nearly all agricultural lands in the state experience temperature extremes detrimental to coffee cultivation in modern climate. By contrast, we found that over 230 km² of agricultural land in coastal southern and central California is thermally suitable for coffee with management efforts. These suitable areas include most of the state's avocado cultivation—which may serve as a thermal buffer for coffee and favour the environmental and economic agricultural sustainability of this coupled crop system. We additionally show that projected near‐term climate coupled with management efforts leads to moderate increases in thermally suitable agricultural lands for coffee cultivation. Despite numerous economic and logistical challenges, that impede the growth of a burgeoning coffee region in coastal, southern and central California, we demonstrate that climate conditions in both today and in the future, combined with agronomic management efforts such as shading, provide an opportunity for a viable coffee production in California.
... However, there is also considerable spread between individual climate models, which is related to the uncertainty of the future scenarios (Coppola et al., 2021). This range of predictions for certain periods and scenarios has to be considered when discussing climate change impacts and selecting adaptation strategies (Omazić et al., 2020;Teslić et al., 2019). Nevertheless, adaptation strategies are most likely required in many cases to improve the climate resilience of the viticultural system and continue the production of high-quality wine products. ...
Wine production and quality both strongly depend on suitable climatic conditions. Increasing the climate resilience of wine regions is therefore of critical importance but requires instruments to evaluate shifts in climatic conditions and growing suitability. This evaluation is particularly challenging in mountain viticultural areas due to their complex topoclimatic patterns, yet they offer the possibility to analyze climate change impacts and adaptation strategies across various climatic conditions and cultivated varieties. Here, we assessed historical and future bioclimatic conditions and identified effective adaptation strategies toward more sustainable and climate‐resilient wine production in the mountain winegrowing regions within South Tyrol in the Italian Alps. We found significant changes in climatic conditions under future scenarios, such as an increase in the Huglin index (HI) and cool night index (CNI) as well as a decreased dryness index (DI), causing an expansion of suitable areas for viticulture as well as a spread of unprecedented climatic conditions in traditional vineyards. Impacts and suitable adaptation options varied depending on climate type and grape variety, highlighting the need for targeted solutions that balance the need for high‐quality wine production with environmental protection and sustainability. Higher elevated areas over 1000 m a.s.l. will experience an increased suitability raising the need for restrictions regarding the expansion of vineyards to avoid degradation of natural ecosystems and biodiversity declines. In contrast, many traditional winegrowing areas will need to implement a combination of short‐ and long‐term adaptation measures to maintain traditional wine styles. Our findings provide a framework for the assessment of viticultural suitability and the formulation of appropriate adaptation strategies for the sustainable cultivation of wine grapes in a changing climate that applies to a variety of climates and grape varieties.
... Climate change led to the earlier development of phenological stages as reported by Ruml [51] in Croatia. Some regions in Croatia are becoming less suitable for economically sustainable grape production [52]. In the Western part of the Carpathian basin (Hungary), climate change has several positive effects in the Sopron wine-growing region, this may result in the cultivation of more quality wine grapes and wines [53], which is also expected in other Hungarian regions [54]. ...
This study examined the structure and trends of climate parameters important for grape production from 1952 to 2022 in the wine-growing regions of Podravje, Posavje, and Primorska in Slovenia. Average and extreme temperature and precipitation data from six meteorological stations in three wine-growing regions were divided into annual and growing seasons. The results show that in the period 1991–2022, there was a warming in the growing season in all regions by 1.4–1.7 °C, except the southern part of Primorska (Koper station) 0.6 °C, compared to the reference period 1961–1990. The heat accumulation indices (GDDs and HI) increased significantly, which is mainly due to the increase in the maximum temperature in the growing season temperature (GST max) and the number of days with Tmax > 30 °C (NDT30). The NDT30 increased the most, by a factor of more than four. In the reference period (1961–1990), however, the trend in the number of hot days was even slightly negative. The mean seasonal temperature rose to around 17 °C in regions with a continental climate and to around 19 °C in the Mediterranean region, which could be reflected in the earlier ripening of the grapes. The trends show a decrease in total annual precipitation (AP) after 1991, but this was significant only at one inland location (Maribor), while the total precipitation during the growing season (GSP) decreased significantly at three locations (Maribor, Bilje, and Koper).
... Climate change is affecting the entire biosphere, including viticulture (Lalić et al. 2018). Recent changes in temperature and precipitation have led to changes in the growth and development of grapevines (Van Leeuwen et al. 2019), in the quantity and quality of the harvest (Bock et al. 2013) and in the concentration of sugars and acids in the must (Omazić et al. 2020). In addition, the areas suitable for viticulture in Europe have been moved further north of the continent or to higher elevations (Malherio et al. 2010). ...
... from the EURO-CORDEX database with a grid spacing of 0.11° are used. The selected models proved to be good for predicting bioclimatic indices in the present climate (Omazić et al. 2020). The observed and modeled data were spatially interpolated using regression kriging, assuming a linear relationship between the meteorological parameters and four predictors: Latitude, Longitude, Elevation and Distance from the Sea. ...
... The distribution of DI also shows the differences between the two climatic norms, which indicates a further drying out of the southern part of the Croatian territory. Climate models indicate a further increase in air temperature over the course of the year, particularly during the growing season (Omazić et al. 2020). ...
Most parts of Croatia are suitable for viticulture, but the choice of grape variety depends heavily on the temperature conditions of the areas and thus on the wine-growing regions and zones in which the areas are located. Since the last revision of the wine-growing zones, the temperature characteristics in Croatia have changed, making it necessary to revise the existing zones and regions. In this study, the changes of five biometeorological indices (Growing Degree-Days (GDD), Temperature Growing Season (TGS), Huglin Index (HI), Cool night Index (CI) and Dryness Index (DI)) were calculated at 80 stations of the Croatian Hydrometeorological Institute in the period 1961-2020 and in three CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations for period 2041-2070. The observed and modelled data were spatially interpolated using regression kriging, assuming a linear relationship between the meteorological parameters and four predictors: Latitude, Longitude, Elevation and Distance from the Sea. The results show significant changes in the bioclimatic indices over the observed period, which were not always accompanied by administrative changes in the wine-growing regions and zones. As a result of climate change, there are also new areas suitable for viticulture, and climate model simulations indicate further changes and shihs in the regions and zones.
... The multiple bar plots in Figure 4 indicate a steady increase in the surface area under agroclimatic conditions of GDDs ≥ 2000 due to CC. All the above findings corroborated previous related research, indicating extensive shifting of the GDDs and vine areas to more northern (in Europe) and higher areas [10,34,54,[86][87][88]. Albania (from 4900 to 8800 km 2 ), Montenegro (1100 to 2100 km 2 ), Croatia (from 1300 to 8400 km 2 ), and Bulgaria (from 300 to 6600 km 2 ) are among the countries demonstrating relatively significant surface increases with GDDs ≥ 2000, especially between the P1 and P3 intervals. ...
... According to the results of Omazić et al. in their 2020 work [86] on the spatial distribution of the GDDs over Croatia (HR) for the historical period of 1971-2000, similarities are evident given that values of the index ≥2000 units correspond to the country's southernmost Adriatic shoreline, which is almost the case for P2 (Figure 2). Leder et al. (2021) [126], in their research on the geographical discrimination of Croatian wines, mention low values in the calculated GDDs in both western and eastern continental Croatian regions, which ranged from 1323.9 to 1652.5 GDDs for the investigated climatologic period . ...
The agricultural sector faces significant challenges worldwide due to climate change. The pressure exerted by altered thermal conditions drives the zonal shift for various cultivations. This study aims to analyze and present the spatiotemporal evolution of the growing degree days (GDD) index in the northern Mediterranean Basin (NMB). More specifically, this research presents the multiyear analysis of the GDD index, which is focused on a high-value vine cultivation derived from the E-OBS dataset. The investigated time period spans from 1969 to 2018, and the performed analysis indicates a broad shift/expansion in areas with GDDs exceeding 2000 heat units. This is present in traditional winemaker countries such as France and Italy. Still, it is also evident that there is a high positive change in countries such as Serbia, Bulgaria, and other Balkans countries. The findings may be helpful in the strategic planning of the agricultural sector in these countries or on a vinery scale.
... The multiple bar plots in Figure 4 indicate a steady increase in the surface area under agroclimatic conditions of GDD ≥ 2000 due to CC. All the above findings are corroborated with previous related research, which indicates extensive shifting of GDD and vine areas to northern (in Europe) and higher areas [10,34,54,[85][86][87]. Albania (from 4900 to 8800 km 2 ), Montenegro (1100 to 2100 km 2 ), Croatia (from 1300 to 8400 km 2 ), and Bulgaria (from 300 to 6600 km 2 ) are among the countries demonstrating relatively significant surface increases with GDD ≥ 2000, especially between the P1 and P3 intervals. ...
Climate change is challenging the agricultural sector worldwide. The pressure exerted by the altered thermal conditions drives the zonal shift for various cultivations. This study presents the multiyear analysis of the Growing Degree Days (GDD) index over the Northern Mediterranean Basin (NMB), focused on the high-value vine cultivation derived from the E-OBS dataset. To handle this extensive environmental dataset, R-language scripts and packages were applied, along with the capabilities of the GIS software. The investigated time period spans from 1969 to 2018, and the performed analysis indicates a broad shift/expansion in areas of GDD exceeding 2000 heat units. The extracted results specify the viticultural areas where the GDD index surpasses the suitable values for vine cultivation, owing to the increase of the thermal stress risk. In addition to mapping areas with GDD ≥ 2000, spatial calculations of the surface of areas meeting this criterion per country in the study area were made. In the northern parts of the NMB, the rise of the GDD index values indicates the establishment of vine plantations in the future.
... Cuxart and Guijarro (2010) reported a significant trend in the rise in temperature on the island of Majorca and the shortening of the season comprising days with temperatures below 0 and 7 • C, but the last and the first occurrences of these values did not show a certain tendency. Considering the expected further increase in the temperature due to climate change, as well as the impact on the cultivation of certain fruits (Omazić et al., 2020), it has been projected that the frost-free season will increase (Charalampopoulos and . Precisely because of this, it is necessary to develop a method that can be used to optimally predict the occurrence of frost, and can be used as an output of climate models (since frost occurrence is not an output of climate models) and determine areas with an increased or decreased frost risk in the future. ...
Due to the earlier start of phenological cycles among fruit trees, frost represents one of the most notable hazards for agriculture. There is no unique method for forecasting frost, and different methods for describing frost under present and future climate conditions can be found in the literature. Often these methods are applied in a certain area without prior control. Five such frost detection methods were assessed in Croatia. In addition, five new frost estimation methods that rely on measurements of the daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and dew point temperature (Td), calculated using Tmin, relative humidity (RH), and the Clausius Clapeyron equation, as well as machine learning, were introduced in this research and compared to other methods. Overall, the frost prediction results showed that the minimum temperature measured at the meteorological shelter that best describes frost formation is 2.5 • C. Additionally, the condition whereby the dew point temperature is lower than 0 • C results in a reduction in the proportion of false alarms. Methods that introduce additional variables outperform those that rely solely on the temperature. The method in which days are classified as exhibiting frost using a Tmin threshold of 3 • C and Td threshold of 0 • C (ased on Tmin and daily mean RH) could capture the most frost days with the smallest error. This method is the most suited for continental areas with a high probability of detection (POD > 0.9) and a probability of false detection (POFD < 0.3) which conforms with the history of frost occurrence in this type of climate zone. These findings were corroborated by signal detection theory analysis, yielding high values of the accuracy index and beta values below 1, indicating a bias toward estimating frost events (with high hit rate values and high false alarm values). This method could be used to identify geographic areas most susceptible to frost formation and, if coupled with a climate model, enable the study of the frost vulnerability due to climate change.
... Some of the most direct impacts concern variations in the phenological development stages of grapes and the growing season length (Fraga et al. 2016;Ruml et al. 2016;Cola et al. 2017;Alikadic et al. 2019;Dinu et al. 2021;Rodrigues et al. 2021); grape quality and production (Holland and Smit 2014;Blanco-Ward et al. 2017Bonfante et al. 2017;Biasi et al. 2019;Cardell et al. 2019a;Meggio et al. 2020;Venios et al. 2020;Hewer and Gough 2021) and the distribution of insect pests and pathogens (Caffarra et al. 2012;Reineke and Thiéry 2016;Bois et al. 2017;Rigamonti et al. 2018;Lessio and Alma 2021). Climate change can also cause variations in the geographic distribution of vineyards (Malheiro et al. 2010Gaál et al. 2012;Fraga et al. 2013Fraga et al. , 2014Hannah et al. 2013;Moriondo et al. 2013;Tóth and Végvári 2016;Omazić et al. 2020;Sgubin et al. 2023;Vlăduț et al. 2023). ...
... Nevertheless, and to the best of our knowledge, few studies (Hannah et al. 2013; Tóth and Végvári 2016)-although none in NW Spain-have used MaxEnt to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the potential distribution of vineyards. In addition, the climatic variables are frequently processed independently in such studies (Gaál et al. 2012;Fraga et al. 2013;Moriondo et al. 2013;Lazoglou et al. 2018;Cardell et al. 2019a;Omazić et al. 2020;Piña-Rey et al. 2020;Alba et al. 2021), without taking into consideration the combination and integration of all the bioclimatic indices simultaneously. ...
Spain accounts for 13.1% of the world’s vineyard area, and viticulture is crucial for the socioeconomic and cultural sectors. Vineyards are among the perennial crops that can suffer most negative impacts under climate change which can pose challenges to the sustainability of viticulture. Local and regional studies are needed to assess these impacts to help implement effective strategies in response to climate change. To this end, our approach involves integrating both conventional agroclimatic indices and those new bioclimatic indices that have proven to be essential for the characterization and demarcation of vineyards into species distribution models to assess areas suitable for viticulture under climate change projections. The proposed methodology was tested in a viticultural region located in northwestern Spain (DO León). An ensemble platform was used to build consensus models encompassing three general circulation models, two emission scenario pathways and two time horizons. Only the predictors that effectively characterize each grape variety were included in the models. The results revealed increases in the continentality index, compensated thermicity index, hydrothermic index of Branas, and temperature range during ripening in all the future scenarios analyzed in comparison to current conditions. Conversely, the values for the annual ombrothermic index and growing season precipitation may decrease in the future. The pattern of changes for 2070 will be more pronounced than for 2050. A significant loss of future habitat suitability was detected within the limits of the study area for the grape varieties analyzed. This negative impact could be counteracted to some degree with new and favorable areas for the cultivation of vineyards in territories located at the north of the DO limits. We suggest that our results could help policymakers to develop practices and strategies to conserve existing grape varieties and to implement efficient adaptation measures for mitigating or anticipating the effects of climate change on viticulture.
... Recent climate changes, characterized by increased temperatures and exacerbated droughts, are having a significant impact on various agricultural sectors, particularly in the semi-arid and arid Mediterranean regions [1]. Unfortunately, future projections indicate even more severe drought conditions in the Mediterranean region [2,3]. Although grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is generally well adapted to dry conditions [4,5], it can suffer significant tissue damage and reduce fruit quality and yield under prolonged drought conditions. ...
The biochemical response and gene expression in different grapevine cultivars to water deficit are still not well understood. In this study, we investigated the performance of four traditional Croatian Vitis vinifera L. cultivars (‘Plavac mali crni’, ‘Istrian Malvasia’, ‘Graševina’, and ‘Tribidrag’), and one wild (Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris) genotype exposed to water deficit (WD) for nine days under semi-controlled conditions in the greenhouse. Sampling for biochemical and gene expression analyses was performed at days six and nine from the beginning of WD treatment. The WD affected the accumulation of metabolites with a significant increase in abscisic acid (ABA), salicylic acid (SA), and proline in the leaves of the stressed genotypes when the WD continued for nine days. Lipid peroxidation (MDA) was not significantly different from that of the control plants after six days of WD, whereas it was significantly lower (297.40 nmol/g dw) in the stressed plants after nine days. The cultivar ‘Istrian Malvasia’ responded rapidly to the WD and showed the highest and earliest increase in ABA levels (1.16 ng mg−1 dw, i.e., 3.4-fold increase compared to control). ‘Graševina’ differed significantly from the other genotypes in SA content at both time points analyzed (six and nine days, 47.26 and 49.63 ng mg−1 dw, respectively). Proline level increased significantly under WD (up to 5-fold at day nine), and proline variation was not genotype driven. The expression of aquaporin genes (TIP2;1 and PIP2;1) was down-regulated in all genotypes, coinciding with the accumulation of ABA. The gene NCED1 (9-cis-epoxycarotenoid dioxygenase) related to ABA was up-regulated in all genotypes under stress conditions and served as a reliable marker of drought stress. This work suggests that the stress response in metabolite synthesis and accumulation is complex, treatment- and genotype-dependent.
... Because temperature changes are more pronounced during the warm period of the year (Beniston et al., 2007), which is the vegetation period, a further shortening of the vegetation period is to be expected (Malheiro et al., 2010;Droulia and Charalampopoulos, 2021). This is also indicated by the numerous climate studies for different climate scenarios (e.g., Fraga et al. 2014, Omazić et al. 2020, Ramos and Jones 2018. However, although recent studies showed a positive correlation between temperature and earlier onset of most phenological stages under warmer climates (e.g., Fila et al. 2014, Fraga et al. 2017, the impact of climate change on budburst is not fully evident in different locations. ...
... Because of the lack of measurements (instrument malfunction or lack of observation, especially in the war period in the early 1990s), space and time interpolation was necessary. Here, the interpolation procedure suggested by Perčec Tadić (2010) and performed by Omazić et al. (2020) has been used. The interpolation procedure was applied to calculate GDD if less than 35% of the daily data in the vegetation period (April-October) were missing. ...
... Koufos et al. (2018) showed that the GDD trend for the baseline period in Grece was from 28 to 140 • C units/10 years. In northeastern Spain (Ramos et al., 2008), a positive trend of GDD is visible, and research in Croatia shows that the growth of the indices will continue in the future (Omazić et al., 2020). ...
In recent decades, there have been significant changes in temperature and precipitation, as well as in the occurrence of phenological stages of the grapevine in most wine-growing regions around the world. These changes are not the same for each variety, nor in all locations. Due to the vulnerability of the viticulture sector, including the possible losses in production in the current winegrowing areas, as well as the planting of vineyards in new areas, it is of great importance to examine the trends in the occurrence of individual stages and to link them as successfully as possible with changes in meteorological parameters. The simplest approach to this is using agrometeorological indices (e.g., Growing degree day, GDD) which can determine the possibility of growing a certain variety. There is also the possibility of developing and testing simple statistical phenological models that serve to predict the occurrence of phenological stages. Four such models were tested for the prediction of four phenological stages (budburst, flowering, veraison, and harvest) for four grape varieties ('Graševina', 'Chardonnay', 'Merlot', and 'Plavac mali') in Croatia. The first two models are commonly used GDD models with a temperature base of 10 °C or 5 °C, and thresholds necessary for phenological stage to start depending on variety or variety and location. The other two models are based on the determination of the best multi-linear regression using as predictors monthly and multi-month averages of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, and total precipitation. The increase in temperature index values from the 1990s to today is particularly significant. Statistical phenological models also proved to be a good indicator of the occurrence of individual phenological stages. GDD models proved to be somewhat better in prediction, GDD models that use a temperature of 5 °C as a base proved to be better for predicting budburst, those that use a base of 10 °C proved to be better for the other stages and particularly for flowering (with agreement index d up to 0.8 and root mean square error of prediction RMSE from 5 to 10 days). Linear regression that uses temperature as a predictor and the same equation regardless of location proved to be very good in predicting the harvest of autochthonous varieties ('Graševina' and 'Plavac mali') with low RMSE (up to 10 days). The presented results indicate that these models could be applied to future scenarios and with that help to make decisions in the wine sector in Croatia and worldwide.
