Figure 3 - uploaded by Nils-Axel Mörner
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The Tarawa/Betio record (PSMSL 1804) show vitually no rising trend (but a strong post-ENSO recovery that must be held outside the trend analysis). In conclusion, available tide gauge records in Kiribati document stable condition with sea level varying between ±0.0 and 0.5 mm/yr, posing no threats what so ever of any flooding in the next century.
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... claim by the IPCC that global sea level is rapidly rising is a misguiding myth built up from weird computer modelling. Observational facts document no to negligible changes in sea level over tha last 50 years ( Figure 1, below). Values obtained by observational facts and measurements give a spectrum ranging between ±0.0 to +1.0 mm/year, which poses no threats to low-lying coasts and islands over the next century (Mörner, 2014, 2015a, 2015b). Your own tide gauge date fail to support your idea of a rapidly rising sea level. None of your 10 stations have records for the minimum required period of 60 years. Two of you stations have records over 30 years. This is Christmas Island II (from 1974 to 2015) with a minute mean rise of 0.36 mm/yr (Figure 2), and Kanton Island (from 1972 to 2012) with a small mean rise of 0.52 mm/year. Both these values fit well within the globally observed range of +0.0–1.0 mm/yr, and poses no problem for Kiribali or any other coastal area over a century or more. The Tarawa C tide gauge has been claimed to give a higer value of sea level rise. This is not correct, however, because it is strongly affected by ENSO (El Niño) pulses and recoveries from their low levels. Over the period of measurement (1993-2015), the Betio station give virtually no rise at all (Figure 3). The idea that CO2 is driving global temperature is not backed up by observation, nor does it concur with the physical lay of CO2/temterature relation (it is logarithmic, not linear. The IPCC group has run 102 AGW-models (i.e. models where the concentration of CO2 drives the global temperature in a linear relation). All of those 102 modells give trends far above the actually measured temperature on the surface of the Earth as well as in the troposphere (Figure ...
