Figure - uploaded by Bradford H. Morrison
Content may be subject to copyright.
The Subjects (Titles and Positions).
Source publication
A white paper with the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA)
Executive Summary: The UBC research group assessed psychological processes of six DPRK leaders, including Kim Jong-un, using thematic content analysis for integrative complexity and motive imagery, and Profiler Plus® computer-scored measures of Belief in Ability to Control Events (BACE),...
Context in source publication
Citations
... The advantages to being perceived as someone who cannot be pressured into changing course may, under some circumstances, also apply to political leaders. For example, Kim Jong-un has unusually low integrative complexity for a political leader (Suedfeld & Morrison, 2019), and his regime survives, in part, by threatening other states with destruction, and by using these threats to deter challenges to the regime, and to coerce concessions, such as food aid. Although we cannot be certain of causality from the evidence available, it is plausible that his low integrative complexity makes his threats more credible, thereby making them more likely to succeed. ...
Political leaders are responsible for making decisions that can lead to, or avert, international violence and war. The goal of this dissertation is to better understand how the cognitive complexity, specifically integrative complexity, of political leaders relates to processes by which international crises or confrontations become violent. It tests two hypotheses that point in opposing directions. The strategic judgment hypothesis posits that leaders with high integrative complexity are better able to solve coordination problems, and therefore to avoid violence. The demonstration-of-resolve hypothesis posits that leaders with low integrative complexity are better able to deter aggression, and therefore to avoid violence. This investigation tests these hypotheses by scoring Auto IC, an automated measure of integrative complexity, from a large corpus of texts from American, British, and Russian/Soviet heads of government from the 19th to 21st centuries. It uses regressions to test whether, controlling for multiple variables, the integrative complexity of leaders, prior to and during international confrontations and crises, is a predictor of variables relevant to the use of violence. These include the initiation of violence, degree of reliance on violence, level of hostility, number of fatalities suffered, and degree of success achieved at the resolution of the crisis. Chapter 6 does this using the data in the Militarized Interstate Confrontations (MIC) dataset. Chapter 7 does this using the data in the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) dataset. The results show that lower integrative complexity is associated with greater reliance on violence, hostility, and number of fatalities suffered, giving more support to the strategic judgment hypothesis. The initial results concerning initiation of violence and success achieved, while not statistically significant, suggested additional exploratory analyses, and modifications to the hypotheses. Theoretical and methodological contributions, limitations, and opportunities for future research are discussed.
... Focusing on their personality traits, specifically their selfconfidence and cognitive ability, this author argued that leaders with high self-confidence and a low degree of conceptual complexity (namely, a worldview based on dichotomies: good/bad, friend/foe, black/white) have problems processing information and making decisions in war situations, such as the Falklands War and the Iraq War of 2003, and uncertain situations, such as the economic crisis of 2008. Recently, Suedfeld and Morrison (2019) analyzed the negative impact of low conceptual complexity (and power motivation) of leaders of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on the probability of negotiating mutual concessions in conflict contexts. ...
The purpose of is article is to examine the relationship between presidents’ leadership styles and peace policies in the Colombian armed conflict. To do so, this study analyzes the peace policies and styles of Colombia’s presidents from 1982 to 2017. The structure of this article is as follows: an examination of the literature on leadership styles and peace policies in turbulent conflicts and a definition of the theoretical framework; a review of the historical-biographical context; a description of the methodology, specifically an explanation of the content analysis employed to measure leadership styles; an analysis of the peace policies adopted in Colombia and conditions related to the personality of the political leaders that might explain them; and the conclusions. It will be argued that the adoption of those peace policies that resulted in the demobilization of insurgent groups in Colombia depended not only on structural, situational, and organizational factors but also on factors related to the personality of political leaders.
A white paper with the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA)
In order to gain a quantified, evidence-based picture of decision-making tendencies of Chinese industrial, technical, economic, and political leaders, the UBC research group assessed the integrative complexity and motivational hierarchy of high-level figures in government and (ostensibly) private enterprise. We selected leaders who have been involved in developing and implementing the global commercial and political strategies of the People’s Republic of China. We used thematic content analysis of open-source texts to assess two categories of psychological processes: (1) patterns of cognition that underlie information search and evaluation, flexibility, contextual monitoring and responding, information inclusivity, and perspective-taking bases of planning and strategizing; and (2) the relative strengths of three basic motives that guide those cognitive processes. The measures are related to planning, decision-making, goal-setting, and relations with other individuals and entities, as well as to strategies for coping with stressful conditions. Excerpts from texts by important figures in the Chinese economy were collected and analyzed. The texts concerned Chinese-American economic relations; the sources were leaders of four major sectors of the national economy: high-level political leaders discussing general economic issues, and top executives in the technology, space, and cyberspace areas. The results showed high Achievement motivation among all four groups of leaders, indicating the desire to excel, progress, and succeed. Power motivation was relatively low among the political leadership, whose concern with influencing and controlling events may have been focused on areas other than the economy (e.g., international relations, domestic unrest). It was quite high among the executives of the other three areas, most notably in the technological sector. The third basic motivation, which is for Affiliation (warm, friendly relations with others), was very low across all groups. Low Affiliation motivation is not unusual among leaders in several areas of life and in many countries. These results suggest that Chinese elites will respond flexibly to changing events, modifying policies and strategies to fit new circumstances; will maintain a strong competitive drive and act to exert increasing influence over events and other countries (whether friendly or adversarial); and will show little concern about non-pragmatic (i.e., traditional or emotional) relations with others.
