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The MSR toolset comprises of five Python scripts that are run sequentially. A high-level description of each script and process flow is illustrated in this figure.
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With solar and wind power generation reaching unprecedented growth rates globally, much research effort has recently gone into a comprehensive mapping of the worldwide potential of these variable renewable electricity (VRE) sources. From a perspective of energy systems analysis, the locations with the strongest resources may not necessarily be the...
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Integrated energy–water systems have been explored using different process integration techniques considering the energy–water–carbon nexus to minimize the carbon footprint, e.g., pinch analysis techniques (power cascade table, water cascade table, and energy planning pinch diagram). However, the power and water losses while considering the energy–...
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... Onshore wind turbines were found to be positively associated with wind power density, air density, and wind speed [10,11,13]. In the context of solar PV installations, an ample influx of solar radiation fuels energy generation [9,14,15]. Yet, more subtle factors such as humidity and air temperature can negatively affect the energy potential, possibly reducing the likelihood of installation occurrence [16,17]. Elevation remains subject to scholarly debate regarding its influence on solar PV placement. ...
... For both wind and solar installations, the proximity to the grid and proximity to road infrastructure emerge as crucial considerations. These connections are indispensable for both electricity transmission and the cost-efficient execution of installation and maintenance procedures [10,11,15]. ...
... On the orographic factors, the analysis reveals a negative impact of elevation on the presence of solar PV installations, where existing literature offered mixed insights. While some studies hinted at the potential benefits of high-elevation PV installations [27], other studies assumed a negative influence [9,14,15]. The preference for lower elevations can be attributed to flatter terrain and readily available land requiring minimal levelling and facilitating installation [10,11,19]. ...
The transition to renewable energy sources, particularly wind turbines and solar photovoltaics, is critical to achieving a climate-neutral European Union. However, challenges in deployment arise related to land conflicts, aesthetics, regulatory barriers and others. While studies have indicated optimal locations, their actual location and associated location determinants remain unknown. This study addresses this gap, with contributions in three key areas. Firstly, it presents the most recent and coherent spatial dataset of onshore wind turbines (118,238) and industrial solar photovoltaics (670 km 2) in the European Union, extracted from Open Street Map. The results present an 8.5-fold and 2.5-fold increase in onshore wind turbines and solar photovoltaics, respectively, compared to similar results from 2020. Secondly, the study provides two models to understand the significance, associated relationship, and strength of a wide range of variables as location determinants. It identifies 16 significant predictors for onshore wind turbines, and 13 for solar PV, uncovering previously unconsidered pre-dictors in optimal placement studies. A 50-fold cross-validation concluded the robustness of both models, allowing for the development of probability maps that illustrate the future expansion potential in the European Union. The regions with the highest wind turbine potential include Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, northern Germany and France. For solar PV, areas with significant potential are found in the Netherlands, Germany, flat regions in Italy, southern and central Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary.
... The process of siting WPPs is complex. Local expertise and participatory planning are valuable to prevent conflict and identify best locations (Sterl et al 2022). To improve planning at larger scale, consensus on how to define the total area of (projected) WPPs will support scientific research on future potential and impact. ...
Wind energy (WE) is one of the key renewable energy technologies required to transform the energy sector to reduce climate change. In the global expansion of WE, one main concern is that wind-power parks (WPPs) take up large areas of land, causing conflicts with other uses such as nature conservation. Existing impact analyses for WPPs are mostly restricted to case studies, and it lacks studies that investigate potential impacts at a larger scale because no scientific consensus on the area associated to a WPP exists. This study proposes a continental, GIS-based approach to estimate the area required for proposed onshore WPPs and to estimate their potential overlap with protected areas (PAs) on the African continent. The results of the spatial analysis show that, in total, the currently proposed 149 WPPs would require 852 km² of land on the African continent, thereof 11 would overlap with PAs. The overlaps sum up to an area of 42 km², which corresponds to an affected nominal power of 834 MW (5% of the total projected wind power capacity). These findings reveal the need for further purposefully local in-depth analyses to investigate if the WPP can be operated in accordance with the conservation of the PA. This work provides new data and a transferable methodological approach on the expansion of WE and its potential space requirement and contributes to the investigation of potential land-use conflicts of proposed onshore WPPs on a broader scale.
... Chad has recently advanced in wind energy with the Amjarass Wind Farm project. Located in the northern part of the country, this project highlights the region's substantial wind potential, characterized by strong and consistent winds, and serves as a model for similar future initiatives (Didane et al., 2017;Sterl et al., 2022). Indeed, the Amjarass Wind Farm represents a significant advancement in harnessing wind resources and reflects a growing interest in renewable energy development (Medjo Nouadje et al., 2024). ...
... This analysis will investigate variations in wind speeds and directions across different climatic zones and seasons. By providing a detailed assessment of wind resources, this research will address the existing information gap and support the strategic planning of wind energy development in the region, complementing the oil industry and electrification efforts (Lemoalle et al., 2012;Sterl et al., 2022). The findings will be crucial for policymakers, energy planners, and investors interested in renewable energy development in Chad. ...
This study provides a climatological assessment of wind resources in Chad using 100-m wind data from the ERA5 reanalysis. The results highlight spatio-temporal variations in wind potential, Enabling the identification of climate zones suitable for wind farm development. Wind speeds range from 1.5 to 11 m/s, with increasing gradients from south to north. Maximum wind speeds are observed between autumn and spring, particularly from October to April, while minimum speeds, below 5 m/s, occur during the wet season. A distinct diurnal cycle is noted, with nighttime wind speeds averaging 26% higher than daytime speeds. Winds predominantly blow in favorable directions, primarily toward the northeast. The study indicates that almost the entire northern region of Chad (north of 15°N latitude) is particularly favorable for wind farm installations, except for areas around the Tibesti mountain range, where wind speeds remain low due to the presence of a permanent anticyclone. Three zones are identified as particularly promising: the region around Faya, the far northeastern part of the country, and the area around Amjarass. Additionally, long-term analysis reveals a slight decrease in 100-m wind speeds, possibly linked to the increased frequency of La Niña events over the past decade. In conclusion, this study provides a comprehensive assessment of Chad's wind potential, emphasizing that the most suitable areas are located between the Saharan and Sahelian zones.
... For this study, we upgraded an existing OSeMOSYS-FlexTool workflow for Kenya (see Kihara et al. 32 for details) by including spatially explicit information on potential VRE locationsincluding location-dependent resource strength and temporal power generation profiles, site-specific transmission grid and road network expansion costs, and terrain-constrained available land area for each location-in the optimization procedure, according to the ''model supply regions'' (MSRs) approach developed by IRENA. 36 Essentially, instead of using a single representative technology for solar PV and wind power each among the investment options in the capacity expansion model, we split up the investment options for solar and wind in the model into spatially disaggregated clusters-ten for solar and ten for wind-each with its own characteristic power generation profile, its own characteristic transmission grid and road network expansion costs to link it to existing infrastructures, and its own specific maximum deployment potential according to constraints dictated by the terrain. For details, the reader is referred to ''experimental procedures,'' sub-section ''representation of solar and wind investment options.'' ...
... This constraint therefore pushes the model to deploy VRE across multiple locations according to a priority ranking of clusters, typically starting with a single preferred region and progressively spreading across more and more clusters. A geospatial representation of the clusters included in the model workflow, adapted from Sterl et al., 36,41 is provided in Figure 2. ...
... The tables include details on the buildout, notably their first year of operation and total capacity by 2050 according to OSeMOSYS results. Further, we show each cluster's average CF and average supplementary CAPEX for grid and road buildout (trCAPEX) and for wind power, as well as the wind turbine class allocated to each specific cluster as per Sterl et al. 36,41 We note that CF and trCAPEX can be combined into a single indicator, namely the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), including the infrastructure expansion CAPEX. For the sake of better understanding the individual drivers and trade-offs of geospatial selection, we show CF and trCAPEX separately in the tables; however, graphical representations of the LCOE-based marginal cost curves of solar and wind clusters are given in Figures 41 and re-visualized for purposes of this paper. ...
For many African countries, energy models point toward variable renewable energy (VRE), mainly solar photovoltaics and wind power, as the potential backbone of future power systems. However, such models have not typically been able to explicitly include geospatial aspects around future VRE power plant siting with respect to cost optimization. For instance, should one build far from the grid in search of excellent resources or rather stay close to existing infrastructure to keep costs low? Here, we present an open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS)-FlexTool workflow for capacity expansion and dispatch optimization planning for African countries that explicitly includes the geospatial dimension of VRE buildout. Applying the model to Kenya, we identify clear and nontrivial links between site characteristics and siting preferences in the optimization results, which moreover differ markedly for solar and wind power. This highly replicable approach has important implications for power system planning, especially in African countries whose grids will be VRE-heavy in the future.
... Customization and automation of controllers have streamlined operations and reduced maintenance needs. Efficient AC and DC applications further boost performance [55][56][57][58]. ...
... Increased research and development investment can drive technology advancements suited to Africa's unique environmental and energy needs, as shown in Fig. 14. Sterl, S., et al. [55], highlighting Somalia's leading solar capacity and Kenya's wind capacity. Renewable energy holds transformative potential for Africa's energy system, fostering sustainable growth and mitigating climate change impacts. ...
Hybrid renewable energy, combining wind and solar sources, is crucial globally, notably in Africa, addressing electricity shortages and complementing each other's performance. However, both sources are intermittent, challenging grids without sufficient storage capacity. Many countries invest in these systems for sustainable electricity, especially in rural Africa. This paper reviews Photovoltaic solar and wind hybrid systems, analysing integration, opportunities, and technologies for enhanced energy output. It examines design, technologies, and policies from the last decade, with case studies from Kenya, South Africa, and China, and forecasts developments in Southern and Eastern Africa.
... 3. The replacement potential assesses how much proposed hydropower capacity would be replaced if onshore wind and solar photovoltaic were fully exploited. This analysis includes the modelled energy supply regions (MSR) which are technically and economically feasible areas for onshore wind or solar photovoltaic exploitation supply regions for solar photovoltaic and onshore wind, respectively (Sterl et al., 2022). While Analysis 1 implements an in-depth analysis of RePP Africa attributes on historical operating times, Analyses 2 and 3 use geospatial methods to analyse the different datasets. ...
... RePP Africa also lists-if information is available-the year of first operation start, full operation start and operation stop if applicable. We used data on modelled energy supply regions to assess the economically feasible wind and solar power potential for the entire continent (Sterl et al., 2022). The regions include all areas where solar irradiation or wind speed, respectively, are sufficient for commercial exploitation, but exclude areas of high human population, high elevation, steep slope, certain categories of land use (e.g. ...
... The potential wind and solar electricity in gigawatt hours (GWh) given for the modelled electricity supply regions were cumulated for each country (Sterl et al., 2022). The modelled electricity supply regions are areas that are technically and economically feasible for onshore wind or solar PV exploitation. ...
In Africa, mitigating climate change in a context of a growing human population and developing economies requires a bold transition to renewable energy (RE) resources. Declining costs for solar photovoltaics (by 90% between 2009 and 2023) and wind turbines (by 57% between 2010 and 2023) fuelled their construction, and hybrid forms such as floating photovoltaics (FPV) on existing hydropower reservoirs are increasingly being explored. Nevertheless, 65% of the proposed RE capacity in Africa remains hydropower, despite confirmed ecological, socioeconomic, and political ramifications on different spatiotemporal scales. The 673 proposed hydropower plants (HPPs) would increasingly affect river systems and threaten their biodiversity. While there is clear evidence that a transition to RE in Africa is technically feasible, there is a lack of spatially explicit studies on how this transition could be implemented. Hence, the aim of the present study is to explore options for an RE mix that avoids additional hydropower construction and, therefore, further river fragmentation. Attribute data of the open-accessible Renewable Power Plant Database (RePP Africa) were analysed to assess the amount of lost capacity due to operation stops. Geospatial analyses of solar irradiation and existing reservoir data were used to derive the potential for FPV. The degree of possible replacement of future hydropower was assessed under consideration of economically feasible wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) potential. To enhance electricity generation from existing HPPs, efficient and sustainable renewable power plant planning must integrate the risk of failure, as it has diminished the available capacity in the past up to 24%. Our findings further reveal that 25 African countries could replace the proposed hydropower development by FPV covering less than 25% of the surface area of their existing hydropower reservoirs. All 36 African countries could replace proposed hydroelectricity generation by fully exploiting feasible onshore wind and solar PV potential with a mean surplus of 371 TWh per year. In summary, our findings provide scientific evidence to support policy discussions on the potential electricity gains from (1) minimizing plant failure, (2) installing FPV as a co-use option, and (3) exploiting wind and solar resources. This study provides quantitative, data-based, and spatially explicit scenarios on the implementation of an RE mix that could relieve the dam building pressure on African rivers.
... Consequently, the formulation of sustainable criteria for PV site selection becomes vital for balancing PV development with limited land resources and safeguarding ecosystems. Previous researches on evaluating potential PV sites have predominantly concentrated on essential factors like solar resources, topographical conditions, and proximity to power infrastructure [48][49][50][51][52], with lesser emphasis on risk factors such as types of vegetation and the rarity of landscape values. The findings of this study advocate for prioritizing degraded lands with lower greenness levels during the PV site selection process. ...
Photovoltaic (PV) solar energy is considered as a promising solution to mitigate the environmental costs associated with the use of fossil fuels. However, the environmental impacts of constructing and operating PV solar energy remain unclear. This study assesses the environmental consequences of PV construction and operation by examining changes in vegetation greenness on a national scale in China, where PV solar energy has rapidly expanded. Utilizing 30-meter vegetation indices and PV maps, we discover that the construction of PV facilities could significantly reduce greenness, with the magnitude of the impacts varying according to local greenness levels. Forests were found to suffer the greatest adverse impacts, while barrens were less affected. Small and medium-sized PV facilities, often established in regions with high levels of greenness, exhibited a stronger negative influence on greenness compared to larger ones. However, during the operational phase, an increase in vegetation greenness is generally observed in PV facilities, particularly in barrens. The magnitude of green recovery may vary considerably across different facilities, with approximately 21% of PV facilities showing an improvement in greenness compared to their pre-construction levels. This study provides a reference for guiding the synergistic development of renewable energy and environmental protection.
... However, with the rapid increase of wind power integration into the power grid, the weather-related variability of total wind power output at the provincial level necessitates a reliable PRWPCM (i.e., mapping relationship between the total wind power output and the corresponding meteorological information at a provincial level) to ensure the wellinformed planning and dispatching for provincial power systems [7,8]. Specifically, (1) when planning the provincial power systems with high shares of wind power, energy planning models must be fed with long-enough temporal series of wind power output to take the wind power variability on different time scales (from sub-hourly to interannual) into consideration, so that the planned regional energy system could have rational flexibility resources deployments to safeguard generation-load balance [9,10]. While datasets such as ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalysis have provided long-term meteorological data over the past few decades to the present day with high spatiotemporal resolution, they lack PRWPCMs to convert meteorological data into wind power output. ...
... To inform energy planning, operating and policymaking, costoptimization mathematical models for energy system at the provincial level must be fed with adequate data series of potential wind power generation or capacity factors [10], which can properly represent the operating characteristics of wind power, including stochasticity, regulation capacity demands, ramp etc. To this end, an important objective of PRWPCM is to generate long-time-series WPCFs from meteorological data of historical observation, reanalysis or global climate model outputs. ...
Estimating the total wind power output from the meteorological information at a province level (called Provincial Regional Wind Power Conversion Model, PRWPCM) plays vital and fundamental roles in energy modeling community and regional wind power forecasting. How to construct a reliable PRWPCM is a real challenge, since PRWPCM involves a large number of widely distributed wind turbines, massive meteorological data across the whole province, and complex nonlinear correlations. This paper proposes a lightweight PRWPCM by integrating Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis technology and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). First, we conduct the land suitability analysis for wind turbine sites through the multi-criteria GIS layer overlay method to make the provincial wind turbine land suitability map (WTLSM) with scored divisions from the least suitable to the most suitable areas. On this basis, a new fusion mechanism for geographic and meteorological information is proposed, through which the raw meteorological data matrix can be reconstructed to filter and amplify the meteorological information that is more relevant to the total wind power output of the province, and avoid the time-consuming and labor-intensive data collection and processing, large-size model construction and validation. Second, a CNN-based regression architecture is designed to further capture the mapping relationship between the reconstructed meteorological data and total wind power output of the province; each type of meteorological factor is considered as an input channel and the attention modules are introduced to adaptively enhance useful channels and suppress less useful ones. Numerical experiments based on the wind power operation data of Yunnan Province, China, are conducted to validate the superiority of the proposed PRWPCM via benchmarking against 13 classical methods.
... The following four sub-sections address the details of each of the four principal questions posed in figure 1 in turn. exceed those of other continents, and various regions within SSA offer substantial wind energy potential, with ample land suitable for solar and wind power plants without conflicting with other land uses (Sterl et al 2022). Several countries also boast important hydroelectric power potential, which can play important near-term roles to mitigate solar and wind intermittency (Sterl 2021a(Sterl , 2021b, although recent research suggests hydropower will rapidly cede in importance towards mid-century (Carlino et al 2023). ...
This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of research on African energy transitions and pinpoints critical questions that require answering to allow science-based policymaking. It both highlights unique elements of energy transitions research in the African context, and explains why these need deeper investigation to enable decisions informed by clear and objective country-specific analysis. In doing so, it pinpoints clear areas of future study that are urgently needed at the country level to enable science-informed policy.
... For wind, we used hourly wind speed data from ERA5 (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts -ECMWF -Reanalysis 5) 54 , applying a linear bias correction to the coarse spatial resolution data to match the annual average wind speeds from the finer spatial resolution Global Wind Atlas (GWA) data, following the approach detailed in Chowhury et al. 26 . This approach is comparable to Sterl et al. 55 . We then applied a Vestas 2 MW 90 m turbine power curve to the modified hourly wind speeds to derive hourly capacity factors using the System Advisor Model 56 . ...
The scale at which low-carbon electricity will need to be deployed to meet economic growth, electrification, and climate goals in Africa is unprecedented, yet the potential land use and freshwater impacts from this massive build-out of energy infrastructure is poorly understood. In this study, we characterize low-impact onshore wind, solar photovoltaics, and hydropower potential in Southern Africa and identify the cost-optimal mix of electricity generation technologies under different sets of socio-environmental land use and freshwater constraints and carbon targets. We find substantial wind and solar potential after applying land use protections, but about 40% of planned or proposed hydropower projects face socio-environmental conflicts. Applying land and freshwater protections results in more wind, solar, and battery capacity and less hydropower capacity compared to scenarios without protections. While a carbon target favors hydropower, the amount of cost-competitively selected hydropower is at most 45% of planned or proposed hydropower capacity in any scenario—and is only 25% under socio-environmental protections. Achieving both carbon targets and socio-environmental protections results in system cost increases of 3-6%. In the absence of land and freshwater protections, environmental and social impacts from new hydropower development could be significant.
