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In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs)...
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Citations
... However, it should be noted that in certain countries, namely Afghanistan and Pakistan in Central Asia, there has been no significant decrease in the AAPCs of age-standardized YLDs from 1990 to 2019. This lack of improvement can potentially be attributed to the frequent occurrence of terrorist events in these two nations [23], which have hindered the advancement of healthcare over the past two decades. In a paradoxical manner, the AAPCs of age-standardized prevalence in China have exhibited a decline over the previous decade, while the AAPCs of age-standardized YLDs have remained constant. ...
Background
Analyzing the glaucoma burden in "Belt and Road" (B&R) countries based on age, gender, and risk factors from 1990 to 2019 in order to provide evidence for future prevention strategies.
Methods
We applied global burden of disease(GBD) 2019 to compare glaucoma prevalence and Years lived with disabilities (YLDs) from 1990 to 2019 in the B&R countries. Trends of disease burden between 1990 and 2019 were evaluated using the average annual percent change and the 95% uncertainty interval (UI) were reported.
Results
From 1990 to 2019, most B&R countries showed a downward trend in age-standardized prevalence and YLDs (all P < 0.05). Additionally, only the age-standardized YLDs in males of Pakistan has a 0.35% increase (95%CI:0.19,0.50,P < 0.001), and most B&R countries has a decline(all P < 0.05) in age-standardized YLDs in every 5 years age group after 45 years old except for Pakistan(45–79 years and > 85 years), Malaysia(75–84 years), Brunei Darussalam(45–49 years), Afghanistan(70–79 years). Finally, in all Central Asian countries, the age-standardized YLDs due to glaucoma caused by fasting hyperglycemia demonstrated have an increase between 1990 and 2019 (all P < 0.05), but Armenia and Mongolia have a decrease between 2010 and 2019 (all P < 0.05).
Conclusion
The prevalence of glaucoma continues to pose a significant burden across regions, ages, and genders in countries along the "B&R". It is imperative for the "B&R" nations to enhance health cooperation in order to collaboratively tackle the challenges associated with glaucoma.
... The SARIMA intervention model can be treated as an extension of SARIMA model, which serves as a useful dynamic modeling tool to rigorously analyze the impact of interventions [40]. And a series of literatures have shown that there is an improvement in the quality of forecasts when intervention analysis is used to capture the impact of a significant intervention [31,41]. ...
Many countries have been implementing various control measures with different strictness levels to prevent the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from spreading. With the great reduction in human mobility and daily activities, considerable impacts have been imposed on the global air transportation industry. This study applies a hybrid SARIMA-based intervention model to measure the differences in the impacts of different control measures implemented in China, the U.S. and Singapore on air passenger and air freight traffic. To explore the effect of time span for the measures to be in force, two scenarios are invented, namely a long-term intervention and a short-term intervention, and predictions are made till the end of 2020 for all three countries under both scenarios. As a result, predictive patterns of the selected metrics for the three countries are rather different. China is predicted to have the mildest economic impact on the air transportation industry in this year in terms of air passenger revenue and air cargo traffic, provided that the control measures were prompt and effective. The U.S. would suffer from a far-reaching impact on the industry if the same control measures are maintained. More uncertainties are found for Singapore, as it is strongly associated with international travel demands. Suggestions are made for the three countries and the rest of the world on how to seek a balance between the strictness of control measures and the potential long-term industrial losses.
... The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. It was also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014 [15]. Based on 2006-2016 data from the Vulnerable Countries Index and Global Terrorism Database (GTD), Qiu used various machine-learning models to regress and predict the risk of terrorist attacks in various countries. ...
To achieve the strategic goals of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it is necessary to deepen our understanding of terrorist attacks in BRI countries. First, we selected data for terrorist attacks in BRI regions from 1998 to 2017 from the Global Terrorism Database and analyzed their time distribution using trend analysis and wavelet analysis. Then, we used honeycomb hexagons to present the spatial distribution characteristics. Finally, based on the Fragile States Index, we used GeoDetector to analyze the driving forces of the terrorist attacks. The following conclusions were obtained: (1) During 1998–2017, the number of events was the highest on Mondays and the lowest on Fridays. In addition, the incidence of events was high between Monday and Thursday but was the lowest on Fridays and Saturdays. The number of events was the largest in January, May, July, and November and was the lowest in June and September; the incidence of terrorist attacks from April to May and July to August was high. (2) Terrorist attacks showed a 10-year cycle during the study period. Terrorist attacks in the last 10 years of the study period were broader in scope and higher in number compared with the previous 10 years. In addition, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and northeastern Europe saw many new terrorist attacks during the latter 10 years. (3) The number of terrorist attacks by bombing/explosion was the largest, followed by armed attack; assassination, kidnapping, and infrastructure attacks were the least frequent. The core areas of the terrorist attacks were Iraq, Israel, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. (4) The driving force analysis revealed that the indicators “security apparatus,” “human flight and brain drain,” and “external intervention” contributed the most to BRI terrorist attacks.
... Forecast information has been utilized in different decision problems (e.g., Al-Binali, 1999;Ali, Boylan, & Syntetos, 2012;Blum & Paté-Cornell, 2016;Clemen, 1989;Clemen & Winkler, 1985;Mai & Kulkarni, 2018), and progress related to forecast information can be found in the review from Winkler, Grushka-Cockayne, Lichtendahl, and Jose (2019). In the defensive scenarios with the absence of the attacker's payoff function, the defender can consult military experts or intelligence communities to acquire some forecast information about the attacker's plan (e.g., Jha, 2009;Li, Zhuang, & Shen, 2017). However, the correctness of the forecast information cannot be fully guaranteed, which is partly caused by the experts' subjectivity, unreliable predicting methods, or the attacker's deception. ...
In defensive resource allocation problems, the defender usually collects some forecast information about the attacker. However, the forecast information may be incorrect, which means that there could be a risk associated with the defender using it in their decision making. In this article, we propose a forecast and risk control (FRC) framework to manage the risk in defensive resource allocation with forecast information. In the FRC framework, we introduce a new measure of risk and three types of defense plans: riskless defense plan, risky defense plan, and risk-control defense plan. Several desirable properties based on the concepts of reward and penalty show that the risk-control defense plan is a general form to support defensive resource allocation. Subsequently, we study a specific defensive allocation problem with forecast information and develop an optimization model that considers the forecast information and the defender's risk tolerance level in order to obtain the risk-control defense plan with maximum reward. Furthermore, we provide some numerical analysis to illustrate the effects of forecast information and risk tolerance level on the risk-control defense plan. Finally, a numerical case study is presented to demonstrate the usability of a risk-control defense plan.
... Time series prediction is an extensively studied task and is applied in countless fields, which are already mentioned in Sect. 1. In the domain of terrorist attack prediction, time series analysis has already been applied before (Sheehan 2009;Li et al. 2017). The current work primarily discusses the application of deep learning for time series prediction of terrorist attacks. ...
Followed by the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and the subsequent events, terrorism and other asymmetrical threat situations became increasingly important for security-related efforts of most western societies. In a similar period, the development of data gathering and analysis techniques especially using the methods of machine learning has made rapid progress. Aiming to utilize this development, this paper employs artificial neural networks for long-term time series prediction of terrorist event data. A major focus of the paper lies on the specific use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for this task, as well as the comparison to the performance of classical methods for (long-term) time series prediction. As the databases like Global Terrorism Database and Fraunhofer’s terrorist event database are not extensive enough to train a deep learning method, a simple toy model for the generation of time series data from one or more terrorist groups with defined properties is established. Metrics for comparison of the different approaches are collected and discussed, and a customized sliding-window metric is introduced. The study shows the principle applicability of CNNs for this task and offers constraints as well as possible extensions for future studies. Based on these results, continuation and further extension of data collection efforts and ML optimization techniques are encouraged.
... In addition, the integrated time-series and intervention model was used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data for 2014 was 3.5% [17]. Sachan and Roy showed a terrorist group prediction model (TGPM) to predict which terrorist group would be involved in a given attack by learning the similarities among terrorist incidents that occurred during various terrorist attacks. ...
In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks have occurred which have caused worldwide catastrophes. The ability to proactively detect and even predict a potential terrorist risk is critically important for government agencies to react in a timely manner. In this study, a method of geospatial statistics was used to analyse the spatio-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks on the Indochina Peninsula. The machine learning random forest (RF) method was adopted to predict the potential risk of terrorist attacks on the Indochina Peninsula on a spatial scale with 15 driving factors. The RF model performed well with AUC values of 0.839 [95% confidence interval of 0.833–0.844]. The map of the potential distribution of terrorist attack risk was obtained with a 0.05×0.05-degree (approximately 5×5 km) resolution. The results indicate that Thailand is the most dangerous area for terrorist attacks, especially southern Thailand, Bangkok and its surrounding cities. Middle Cambodia and the northern and southern parts of Myanmar are also high-risk areas. Other areas are relatively low risk. This study provides the hotspots for terrorist attacks on a more fine-grained geographical unit. Meanwhile, it shows that machine learning algorithms (e.g., RF) combined with GIS have great potential for simulating the risk of terrorist attacks.
... This implies that, to understand the social and political mechanisms that govern the incidence and dynamics of terrorist acts, a sophisticated, intrinsically dynamic, and geographically rooted analytical and predictive approach is called for (Leweling and Nissen, 2007), while maintaining a critical understanding of the threats, and not only of the benefits, of technologically advanced anti-terrorism tools (LePoire and Glenn, 2007). The importance of space in this analysis is twofold: not only terrorist acts happen in space, and are spatially related to one another in complex ways, but space itself modulates the learning strategies of the players through a subtle mix of local and global channels (Li et al., 2016;Tominaga, 2017). On the other hand, making sense of multi-layered spatially situated processes severely challenges human cognitive and computational abilities. ...
... These vulnerabilities were recently realized when terrorists attacked Domodedovo International Airport Terminal (Moscow) in January 2011, killing 38 and wounding 168 victims [12]. This mode of attack was further reinforced with the March 2016 Brussels terror attacks, where two suicide bombs at Brussels' Zaventem airport terminal departure hall killed 16 people, closing the Brussels airport terminal for 12 days, and causing a progressive return to full operations across a three-month period [1], followed by a similar attack in June 2016 at Istanbul's Ataturk Airport, involving three suicide bombers using firearms before detonating themselves, killing 42 and wounding a further 239 victims. ...
... Transactions of the ASME By considering our centralized queuing construct, we can identify appropriate loss radii for investigation given the fatalities arising from previous Airport Terminal IED attacks. The 2011 suicide bombing at Moscow's Domodedovo airport terminal (2-5 kg shrapnel PBIED [38]) killed 38 [12], while the two suicide bombs at Brussels' Zaventem airport terminal departure hall killed 16 [1]. From these incidents, we identified that loss radii of 3 m (five fatalities), 5 m (13 fatalities), and 10 m (53 fatalities) are reasonable for investigation, as being generally representative of most centralized queuing constructs in Western airport terminals. ...
Brussels Airport ceased operations for 12 days after a coordinated Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attack by suicide bombers in March 2016, demonstrating that critical transport hubs can be disrupted for significant durations by terrorists. Designers of critical infrastructure need to consider countermeasures to such attacks, reducing a target's attractiveness and improving opportunities for business continuity. This can be achieved through considering the cost-benefit of potential countermeasures during the design phase for infrastructure. This paper uses a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for IED Attack, to assess the costs and benefits of using distributed security queuing at airport terminals. Our results demonstrate that the use of distributed security queuing will offer casualty reductions when used in preference to centralised security queuing. However, when considering the cost-benefit of introducing distributed security queuing, on the basis of a single small to medium IED attack, it is likely that implementing this countermeasure would not be deemed cost-effective from a purely financial perspective, particularly when the threat likelihood is very low.
This paper presents a method to evaluate hazard level of soft-targets spaces based on their susceptibility to terrorist acts. This contribution illustrates a mixed approach (qualitative-quantitative) to assess an unknown probability of situations which may well put the lives of citizens in serious danger. A case study is conducted on a building adapted from one of the University of Cantabria campus in case of an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) delivered by a terrorist. The present study shows how the method can provide valuable information to decision makers based on quantitative results for use in risk management. Potential applications and opportunities of this approach are discussed in detail.
