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The AgMIP regional integrated assessment framework. Source: Rosenzweig et al. (2013). RCP = representative concentration pathway; SSP = shared socio-economic pathway; RAP = representative agricultural pathway; TOA-MD = trade-off analysis model for multi-dimensional impact assessment
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Natural and artificial (e.g. agricultural) ecosystems confer benefits in the form of provisioning, regulating, cultural and habitat/supporting goods and services. Degradation of eco systems by natural and anthropogenic drivers compromises their ability to provide these goods and services. In Kenya, as in other regions worldwide, climate change and...
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... Almost all extreme-heat studies use temperature data of typically two types, gridded and station-level and of varying frequencies, such as daily, hourly or monthly (Mulwa et al. 2016;Blom et al. 2022). The use of gridded data at various resolutions depends on the level of detailed required and the geographical area being covered Schoetter et al. (2015); Burke and Emerick (2016); Harrington (2021); Animashaun et al. (2022). ...
This paper provides a review of the main empirical challenges involved in quantitatively estimating the impact of extreme climate events on household welfare at the micro-level. To this end, it first outlines a conceptual framework of extreme climate event damage modeling that can aid in terms of considering the ideal input and damage function requirements to create appropriate proxies. It then considers the use of imperfect versions of these proxies in a general econometric framework designed for typical data contexts, and the implications with regard to the interpretation of the results for the impact on household welfare. Using four extreme climate event type case studies, namely tropical cyclones, flooding, extreme heat, and droughts, the study outlines and discusses their respective challenges within the proposed framework.
... That result is weaker for papers focusing on agriculture (44%), as a large share of papers do not provide any conclusion (28%), or identify other groups as being most impacted (e.g. particular agro-ecological zones [38], fruit producers [39], urban households [40], wheat importing regions [41]). How climate change may affect inequalities through its impact on agriculture is not straightforward. ...
While it is widely assumed that poor countries will suffer more from climate change, and that climate change will exacerbate inequalities within countries, systematic and large-scale evidence on this issue has been limited. In this systematic literature review, we examine and synthesize the evidence from the literature. Drawing from 127 individual papers, we find robust evidence that climate change impacts indeed increase economic inequality and disproportionately affect the poor, both globally and within countries on all continents. This result is valid across a wide range of different physical impacts, types of economic inequality, economic sectors, and assessment methods. Furthermore, we highlight the channels through which climate change increases economic inequality. While the diversity of different approaches and metrics in the current literature base precludes extracting a universal quantitative relation between climate change and economic inequality for use in future modelling, our systematic analysis provides an important stepping stone in that direction.
... The power-change theory has been used to quantify the supply chain risks caused by internal and external environmental changes (Fortems-Cheiney et al. 2016). A method of quantifying supply chain risks based on a conceptual framework has been proposed, using graph theory to quantify information risks (Mulwa et al. 2016). Others have analyzed the factors affecting food safety from a supply chain perspective and concluded that the factors affecting food safety are: processing, logistics, source supply, and catering (Zhang et al. 2021). ...
This paper constructs the operation model of agricultural products supply chain under an IoT (Internet of Things) environment, based on which the HHM (Hodrick-Prescott Filter) model is used to identify the risk. The ISM (Internal Supply Management) model was used to analyze risk factors. A risk index system was constructed, which was divided into three primary indexes and 18 secondary indexes. The backpropagation (BP) neural network approach was used to establish the risk assessment model. The sample data from 2017 to 2020 was employed as the test sample to test the network assessment model. There was a very small error in the risk level assessment and training results. The results showed that the risk level assessment model was highly operable and can have practical value for effective assessment of the risk level.
... The negative consequences of climate change play a key role in guaranteeing small-scale farmers' food security, especially in areas susceptible to floods and droughts (Verchot et al. 2007). As a result, there are losses to society, the economy, and the environment due to lack of rainfall that results in agricultural crop drying as well as continued food aid during the drought (Mulwa et al. 2016). Besides, people in the most countries live in hungry and poor due to limited availability of water and agricultural food production. ...
Due to climate change and increasing population growth, there is high food insecurity in Ethiopia, which results in agricultural economic crises. This crisis can be reduced by increasing agricultural production in a whole part of the country. However, rainfall in arid and semi-arid areas is generally insufficient to meet the basic needs of crop production. In order to improve the livelihoods of its rural communities, the government of Ethiopia has currently started implementing rainwater harvesting (RWH) techniques at the household level. This method can help boost the country's agricultural production and livestock. The main goal of this review is to examine the status of the knowledge and practices of RWH technology for crop production in Ethiopia. The different reviews conducted in Ethiopia revealed the importance of RWH technologies for the country's rain-fed regions. The positive effects of macro-catchment systems on water productivity in regions such as Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, and the Southern were among the most important findings. Most of these systems are built and operated in these regions, which gave a good picture of their practices. Besides this, the different challenges were addressed during the application of RWH practices in the field, including pond siltation, seepage losses, water lifting problems, and lack of awareness, which were the major ones. These challenges will be reduced when all concerned bodies can participate in the technology at the local level. Therefore, rain-fed agriculture's ability to increase crop production in the study region has in general demonstrated a significant impact.
... Pergeseran ini telah memberikan tekanan yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya pada sistem produksi pangan, menuntut peningkatan efisiensi, pengurangan dampak lingkungan, dan peningkatan ketahanan dalam menghadapi perubahan iklim (Iskandar & Sarastika, 2023;Mulwa et al., 2016;Okolie et al., 2022;Rosenzweig et al., 2014). Pada saat yang sama, keharusan untuk mengatasi perubahan iklim dan transisi menuju ekonomi rendah karbon telah menyebabkan meningkatnya minat terhadap sumber energi terbarukan. ...
Integrasi energi terbarukan dalam proses produksi pangan telah muncul sebagai pendekatan penting untuk mengatasi tantangan keberlanjutan di bidang pertanian dan meningkatkan ketahanan lingkungan. Studi ini menggunakan analisis bibliometrik untuk memeriksa secara komprehensif lanskap ilmiah penelitian tentang pemanfaatan energi terbarukan dalam domain produksi pangan. Kumpulan data publikasi yang dikurasi dengan cermat dari Web of Science, Scopus, dan Google Scholar yang mencakup tahun 1994 hingga 2023 menjadi dasar analisis ini. Temuan-temuan utama menyoroti lonjakan yang signifikan dalam aktivitas penelitian dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, menggarisbawahi semakin pentingnya adopsi energi berkelanjutan dalam produksi pangan. Penulis dan institusi yang produktif, jaringan kolaboratif, dan publikasi yang banyak dikutip diidentifikasi, menjelaskan kontributor utama dan karya-karya yang berpengaruh di bidang ini. Selain itu, analisis kata kunci mengungkapkan tema-tema yang dominan dan yang sedang berkembang, mulai dari konsumsi sumber daya dan pengelolaan limbah hingga implikasi ekonomi dari keberlanjutan. Analisis bibliometrik ini memberikan pandangan holistik tentang lanskap penelitian, yang menginformasikan arah masa depan untuk inisiatif energi berkelanjutan di sektor produksi pangan.
... Rapidly changing global demographics, climate change, and rising food demand have put enormous pressure on the agricultural sector to increase productivity while minimizing environmental impacts [4]- [7]. To address these challenges, researchers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders must have access to up-to-date and reliable information on the latest developments, research trends, and key contributors in agro-processing technologies. ...
The adoption and innovation of agricultural processing technology play a vital role in ensuring food security, sustainability, and competitiveness in the agricultural sector. This research presents a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of academic literature on agricultural processing technology adoption and innovation from a global perspective. The study aims to identify key research trends, influential authors, major research themes, and emerging areas of interest in this domain. The dataset was collected from reputable scholarly databases, and VOSviewer analysis was used to visualize co-authorship networks, keyword clusters, and citation impact maps. The results revealed seven distinct clusters of research themes, including agricultural enterprise and innovation policy, market competitiveness, quality of food processing technology, technology innovation for rural development, sustainable development, technology transfer, big data in agriculture, and agribusiness and innovation technology. Moreover, ten highly cited research papers were identified, signifying their significant impact on the field. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and industry stakeholders to enhance agricultural productivity, promote sustainable practices, and foster technology-driven innovations for a resilient global food system.
... The households for the survey were identified using a combination of stratified and multistage sampling technique ( Table 1). The survey was conducted by University of Nairobi and Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI) using the protocols developed by ICRISAT and detailed description of the methodology used and other survey details are in [44]. Briefly, in all the five selected AEZs one sub-location (In Kenya sub-location is the fifth level administrative division after province, district, division and location under its old constitution) was chosen for sampling (Fig 1). ...
In this study, we assessed the possible impacts of climate variability and change on growth and performance of maize using multi-climate, multi-crop model approaches built on Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols in five different agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of Embu County in Kenya and under different management systems. Adaptation strategies were developed that are locally relevant by identifying a set of technologies that help to offset potential impacts of climate change on maize yields. Impacts and adaptation options were evaluated using projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Two widely used crop simulation models, Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was used to simulate the potential impacts of climate change on maize. Results showed that 20 CMIP5 models are consistent in their projections of increased surface temperatures with different magnitude. Projections by HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC-ESM tend to be higher than the rest of 17 CMIP5 climate models under both emission scenarios. The projected increase in minimum temperature (Tmin) which ranged between 2.7 and 5.8°C is higher than the increase in maximum temperature (Tmax) that varied between 2.2 and 4.8°C by end century under RCP 8.5. Future projections in rainfall are less certain with high variability projections by GFDL-ESM2G, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M suggest 8 to 25% decline in rainfall, while CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR and BNU-ESM suggested more than 85% increase in rainfall under RCP 8.5 by end of 21st century. Impacts of current and future climatic conditions on maize yields varied depending on the AEZs, soil type, crop management and climate change scenario. Impacts are largely negative in the low potential AEZs such as Lower Midlands (LM4 and LM5) compared with the high potential AEZs Upper Midlands (UM2 and UM3). However, impacts of climate change are largely positive across all AEZs and management conditions when CO2 fertilization is included. Using the differential impacts of climate change, a strategy to adapt maize cultivation to climate change in all the five AEZs was identified by consolidating those practices that contributed to increased yields under climate change. We consider this approach as more appropriate to identify operational adaptation strategies using readily available technologies that contribute positively under both current and future climatic conditions. This approach when adopted in strategic manner will also contribute to further strengthen the development of adaptation strategies at national and local levels. The methods and tools validated and applied in this assessment allowed estimating possible impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies which can provide valuable insights and guidance for adaptation planning.
... conflicts) motivations in Ethiopia (Berhanu and White, 2000;Endalew et al., 2015). It is probable, as indicated by the Foresight project, that these patterns are very common to other countries of the region (Foresight, 2011), even if climate change can produce mixed effects (increasing or decreasing crop yields) depending on geographical patterns (Mulwa et al., 2016). ...
The connection between food security and migration is increasingly discussed by both international agencies and academic literature. However, despite several improvements, we continue to know little about the complex causal-effect relations that link these aspects and, in particular, how much migration patterns are affected by food security issues and how much, as a feedback, migration can affect food security, on both the origin and destination areas. This paper aims firstly to draw a general framework of this nexus and then to validate it using empirical literature on the African continent. A few common points can be emphasized for the continent: due to structural and familiar characteristics, different strategies based on opportunity costs or risk minimization (including food security aspects) may emerge; individuals often migrate following household strategies; multi-nodal households are emerging; land grabbing and land tenure security represent important drivers to be considered; emergencies or critical situations often cause the erosion of women rights. In many situations, the poverty trap prevents most food insecure households to leave marginal lands.
... Climate change remains a challenge under most archetypes. In both the Regional Sustainability and Market Forces scenarios, climate change is predicted to have negative impacts on agricultural production and farm incomes in many parts of the continent (Boko et al., 2007), including low-lying areas in East Africa where the majority of Kenya's farmlands are situated (Mulwa et al., 2016). In the Local Sustainability scenario archetype, diverse, climate-smart agricultural practices and localised water and renewable energy infrastructure developments see an improvement in livelihood, food, water, and energy security at the household level (Lambin et al., 2014;WWF-AfDB, 2015;UNEP, 2016). ...
... However, even these links are mostly qualitatively described, with very little quantitative modelling of human well-being. The exceptions mainly deal with modelling disease incidence under climate scenarios (Box 5.6), as well as changes in agricultural production or income (e.g., Slater et al., 2012;Mulwa et al., 2016). Compared to certain health impacts and livelihoods, the relationships between human well-being aspects such as equity or security and ecosystem condition are much more difficult to assess or model (Levy et al., 2005;Raudsepp-Hearne et al., 2010). ...
Scenario planning is a key approach for exploring the longer term consequences of nature-society interactions, and are used to inform policy making about the potential risks, opportunities and tradeoffs of different possible future pathways of change. Scenarios do not aim to forecast or predict the future, but rather to highlight how different potential futures may unfold and thereby assist in the formulation and implementation of policies and interventions. This assessment identified 355 scenario studies published since 2005 that have explored the future of biodiversity and Nature’s contributions to people (NCP) across Africa. The different scenario studies were clustered and compared in terms of five major alternative trajectories (or archetypes) of future change across Africa, respectively emphasising markets, policy reform, security (fortress world), and regional and local sustainability {5.1. 1, 5.2. 1, 5.3}.
For Africa as a whole, drivers related to population, urbanisation, consumption and natural resource use are expected to increase under all five major scenario trajectories assessed. Similarly, the impacts of climate change impacts in Africa are expected to increase under most scenarios (5.4, established but incomplete). However, substantial variation in all key drivers is expected between regions and different scenarios. The largest populations on the continent are expected under Fortress World scenarios, but remain largely rural with high direct dependence on natural resources, leading to sustained pressure on biodiversity and NCP. The lowest populations are expected under Policy Reform scenarios, and are expected to be largely concentrated in
... Climate change remains a challenge under most archetypes. In both the Regional Sustainability and Market Forces scenarios, climate change is predicted to have negative impacts on agricultural production and farm incomes in many parts of the continent (Boko et al., 2007), including low-lying areas in East Africa where the majority of Kenya's farmlands are situated (Mulwa et al., 2016). In the Local Sustainability scenario archetype, diverse, climate-smart agricultural practices and localised water and renewable energy infrastructure developments see an improvement in livelihood, food, water, and energy security at the household level (Lambin et al., 2014;WWF-AfDB, 2015;UNEP, 2016). ...
... However, even these links are mostly qualitatively described, with very little quantitative modelling of human well-being. The exceptions mainly deal with modelling disease incidence under climate scenarios (Box 5.6), as well as changes in agricultural production or income (e.g., Slater et al., 2012;Mulwa et al., 2016). Compared to certain health impacts and livelihoods, the relationships between human well-being aspects such as equity or security and ecosystem condition are much more difficult to assess or model (Levy et al., 2005;Raudsepp-Hearne et al., 2010). ...
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Scenario planning is a key approach for exploring the longer term consequences of nature-society interactions, and are used to inform policy making about the potential risks, opportunities and trade-offs of different possible future pathways of change. Scenarios do not aim to forecast or predict the future, but rather to highlight how different potential futures may unfold and thereby assist in the formulation and implementation of policies and interventions. This assessment identified 355 scenario studies published since 2005 that have explored the future of biodiversity and Nature’s contributions to people (NCP) across Africa. The different scenario studies were clustered and compared in terms of five major alternative trajectories (or archetypes) of future change across Africa, respectively emphasising markets, policy reform, security (fortress world), and regional and local sustainability {5.1.1, 5.2.1, 5.3}.
For Africa as a whole, drivers related to population, urbanisation, consumption and natural resource use are expected to increase under all five major scenario trajectories assessed. Similarly, the impacts of climate change impacts in Africa are expected to increase under most scenarios (5.4, established but incomplete). However, substantial variation in all key drivers is expected between regions and different scenarios. The largest populations on the continent are expected under Fortress World scenarios, but remain largely rural with high direct dependence on natural resources, leading to sustained pressure on biodiversity and NCP. The lowest populations are expected under Policy Reform scenarios, and are expected to be largely concentrated in large urban centres. However, increased wealth, consumption and global trade under this scenario also leads to high demand for food and other resources across Africa {5.4} (established but incomplete).
Under most future scenarios, Africa is increasingly interconnected with the rest of the world through global markets and trade (established but incomplete). Connections between different subregions in Africa are also likely to increase. Consequently, decisions and activities elsewhere in the world and in different parts of the continent may increasingly affect human well-being, NCP and biodiversity across Africa (5.8, established but incomplete). Large-scale resource extraction by multi-national companies are expected to lead to land grabbing, increased conflict, displacement and migration under several scenarios (5.4.4; 5.8, established but incomplete). While global trade has the potential to catalyse further economic and social development in Africa, this assessment suggests that under many scenarios the primary beneficiaries are overseas markets and investors. In the longer term, ecosystem service provision and local food security in Africa may be undermined unless trade and the distribution of its benefits are carefully governed {5.8}.
The impacts of human activities are expected to result in further losses of terrestrial, freshwater and marine biodiversity, as well most reductions in many provisioning and regulating services across Africa (established, but incomplete). In the short-term, habitat loss through land-use change may have more severe consequences for biodiversity and NCP than a changing climate. Current protected areas across Africa are generally not well aligned with future climate-related range shifts of species, implying increased resource needs to meet conservation objectives in the future. Although there is variation in the level of water availability across different scenarios and regions, water stress in Africa is expected to increase under all scenarios, particularly in the southern African region. Similarly, pollination services and regulation of climate and storm protection in Africa are likely to decrease under most scenarios. On the other hand, terrestrial food production and energy provision through biofuels is expected to increase under most future scenarios {5.5}.
Increasing trade-offs are expected in the water-food-energy nexus. The increase in trade-offs is particularly pronounced under scenarios that emphasise economic growth (5.7; 5.8, established but incomplete). There are more opportunities for synergies under scenarios that emphasise sustainability and the adoption and enforcement policies that increase and modernise agricultural production and access (5.7 established, but incomplete). Under all scenarios, achieving the goal of eradicating hunger is unlikely without compromising water quality. Energy security and access is best met under scenarios that focus on
THE REGIONAL ASSESSMENT REPORT ON BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES FOR AFRICA
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mitigating the impacts of climate change through proactive climate action and efforts to enhance regional sustainability (5.4; 5.7, established but incomplete).
Overall levels of human well-being are expected to improve under most future scenario trajectories, but Africa continues to face unique challenges (established but incomplete). Poverty is generally expected to decline, but major pockets of poverty persist, particularly in rural areas. Equity similarly shows mixed results, with progress towards greater equity threatened by patchy development across Africa and asset capture by foreign companies. Health is not expected to improve significantly under most scenarios, though health concerns shift from lack of access to food and medicine to problems associated with modern lifestyles (e.g., diabetes, air pollution). Security and freedom of choice are only expected to improve significantly under very particular scenario conditions where global cooperation and African national governance align effectively {5.5}.
Alignment of the Agenda 2063 aspirations, Sustainable Development Goals and Aichi targets can facilitate interventions that achieve multiple transformative outcomes by linking the conservation of biodiversity and NCP with enhanced human well-being in Africa (established but incomplete). Scenarios that prioritise sustainable development trajectories, with strong regional integration, collaboration, proactive and inclusive governance, show the potential for avoiding dependencies and lock-in behaviours associated with scenarios where rapid exploitation of the natural environment for short-term gains are promoted. While all of the scenarios involve trade-offs, scenarios that involve the development of strong regional institutions and good governance offer the best options for maintaining ecological integrity in support of human well-being and sustainable development {5.7}.
There are currently clear gaps in the type and distribution of scenario studies in Africa, with some subregions – such as central, northern and western Africa – being particularly poorly covered (established but incomplete). Most of the studies assessed in this chapter have addressed future changes in southern Africa (37%) and eastern Africa (18%). Almost 50% of the studies focused on local scales, while 26% covered multiple countries, and 18% are part of global scenario exercises. Only 11% of the assessed studies were conducted at the national scale, which is arguably the most useful scale for decision-making. The majority of the studies (80%) have had a broad exploratory focus, with only 24% focused on assessing specific policies or interventions. Furthermore, most studies (46%) used existing scenario storylines from other (often global) studies to explore future impacts on biodiversity and NCP in Africa; only 14% developed new integrated scenario storylines (5.2.2, established but incomplete). Furthermore, the links between NCP and human well-being are not often explored in much detail beyond climate change impacts on disease vectors and livelihoods {5.5}.
Scenario studies in Africa are heavily biased towards modelling climate change impacts, and do not sufficiently incorporate broad stakeholder participation or indigenous and local knowledge (ILK). Only 12% of the studies assessed included a participatory approach, and only 3% integrated ILK to some extent. In contrast, modelling exercises have been widespread (90% of studies), but mostly focus on climate change impacts (60%). The main models used in African scenario studies are correlative models (48%), followed by process-based models (29%) and expert-based models (8%) (5.2.2, established but incomplete). There is a critical need to broaden the scenario approaches used in the region to better incorporate ILK and participatory approaches.
Concerted efforts are needed to mobilise financial resources and build the capacity of African researchers, policymakers and institutions to understand, carry out and use scenario analyses. Although over half (56%) the studies assessed included at least one African-based author, only 19% of the studies involved only authors affiliated with African institutions. South Africa is by far the most productive African country, contributing to 29% of all studies. However, there is very little collaboration between South Africa-based authors and authors from other African countries (section 5.2.2, established but incomplete). Existing regional and international expertise should be leveraged to train a wider set of researchers in the use of scenario methods, and in communicating outputs of scenarios to decision-makers (5.2.2, unresolved).
