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Test for Placebo and Pretrend

Test for Placebo and Pretrend

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Over the past few decades, special economic zones (SEZs) have become a widely used industrial policy tool to support structural transformation and economic development. Yet their impact on the economy remains inconclusive, especially in developing countries where the lack of data presents a challenge. This study examines the potentially causal effe...

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... identifying assumption is assumed to hold if the estimated ATTs fall within the prespecified range. Figure 3 shows the results of the placebo and pretrend tests. The results of the placebo test in panel A provide evidence supporting the validity of the underlying assumptions, as seen in the nonsignificant p-value of 0.39. ...

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Article
Many countries in Asia and the Pacific have experienced rapid economic growth and structural transformation in recent decades. Yet, some countries are still at an early stage of this structural transformation and face external conditions less favorable than those faced by the first movers when they were at a similar early stage in their transformation. The external environment is less auspicious, with trade tensions and “friend-shoring” leading to possible deglobalization, while demographic headwinds could also lower sustainable growth rates and induce technological changes, such as the increased use of robots, that reduce the possibility of relying upon labor-intensive development strategies.