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Temporal trends in number of wildfires (a); (R 2 = 0.69) and burned areas (b); (R 2 = 0.47) in Siberia (p < 0.05). Linear trends are shown by a solid line.
Source publication
Wildfire number and burned area temporal dynamics within all of Siberia and along a south-north transect in central Siberia (45°-73° N) were studied based on NOAA/AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and Terra/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data and field measuremen...
Context in source publication
Context 1
... statistics of annual wildfires area and the number of fires in Siberia showed a positive trend (R 2 = 0.69 and 0.47, respectively; p < 0.05) (Figure 2). The correlation of annual burned area with air temperature anomalies was the highest during the June-July period (r = 0.67); correlation with temperature anomalies during the whole fire season (April-September) was lower (r = 0.56). ...
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Citations
... The positive correlation between the CDD index and fire and drought is due to the effect of high CDD on increasing fire hazard and occurrence. It has been demonstrated that there is a consistent relationship between drought, fire hazard indices and the impact of drought on fire have been shown continuously across different geographical locations and time scales [49][50][51]. In addition to drought, forest fires in Jambi are also highly dependent on the condition of peatlands. ...
Hydrometeorological disasters due to extreme weather events represent a significant threat to the security of life in Jambi Province. In order to develop effective strategies for mitigating this threat, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying dynamics that give rise to such disasters. Despite the high frequency of these events, more research is needed on the complex relationship between trends in extreme indices and the frequency of hydrometeorological disasters in this region. This study addresses this gap by utilizing rainfall data from 2008 to 2020 from the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and hydrometeorological disaster data from the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB). A range of extreme rainfall indices, including PRCPTOT, R85P, R95P, R99P, CWD, CDD, R1mm, R10mm, R20mm, R50mm, RX1Day, RX5Day, and SDII, were subjected to careful analysis concerning hydrometeorological disasters, including floods, landslides, tornadoes, droughts, and forest fires. Notable results indicate a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) for the CWD index, while decreasing trends are observed for R85P, R95P, R99P, R50mm, RX1Day, RX5Day, and SDII. PRCPTOT and R20mm show decreasing trends, and CDD shows an increasing trend, although it is not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Subsequently, there was a significant increase in landslides and tornadoes, while forest fires and floods showed an insignificant increase (p > 0.05). Drought exhibited a significant decreasing trend in Jambi. Correlation analysis revealed the complex relationship between extreme weather indices and hydrometeorological disasters. The positive correlations observed between most extreme rainfall indices and floods and landslides, except for CDD, indicate that extreme rainfall is the primary cause of these disasters in Jambi. The correlation is particularly pronounced in areas with mountainous topography, where landslides are more prevalent. The positive correlations observed between CDD and droughts and forest fires suggest that periods of reduced rainfall and increased drought contribute to these disasters. This correlation is more robust in districts with extensive peatlands. The results provide valuable insights into the vulnerability of Jambi Province to hydrometeorological disasters and highlight the importance of understanding regional variations in extreme weather events. These findings improve our understanding of the interactions between climate indices and disasters and provide the basis for informed risk reduction and adaptation strategies in changing climatic conditions. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2024-08-05-012 Full Text: PDF
... To predict fires and map high-risk or sensitive regions, it is imperative to analyze burned areas (Michael et al., 2021;Naderpour et al., 2021;Kavlak et al., 2021). Fire burnt areas were observed to increase with time in Siberia (Ponomarev et al., 2016), Western US forests (Westerling, 2016), Sweden (Krikken et al., 2019), and California (Turco et al., 2023). Similarly, the relationship between weather extremes, the length of fire season, and the impact of ACC were observed in the Western US and Canada (Abatzoglou and Williams 2016;Abatzoglou et al., 2019;Williams et al., 2019) and Australia (Dowdy, 2018). ...
Introduction
Forest fires are increasing in terms of number, size, and extent which have a growing influence on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The economy and ecology of Northeast India have been seriously impacted by forest fires in many places, it is important to comprehend the region's spatiotemporal distribution, severity, and future projections for forest fires in light of climate change.
Methods
Geographical information systems (GIS) integrating with remote sensing (RS) were used to understand the role of different parameters in all four bioclimatic zones of the region.
Results
and discussion: Most of the fires were restricted to pre-monsoon season (93 %), alone 62 % in March. The forest fire in the present scenario was highest in the Lawngtlai district, followed by Dhalai and Ri-Bhoi. The Lawngtlai and Dhalai districts are at the highest risk (greater than 70 %) for future forest fires. Categorically, among the protected areas, Lengteng WLS has the highest (86.6 %) future forest fire risk followed by Tawi WLS (86.5 %), Ngengpui WLS (84.9 %), and Pualreng WLS (84.6 %).
Conclusion
The results suggest that underground biomass in the lower elevated forest needs to be managed effectively at the onset of the fire season to reduce the occurrence of forest fires. There is a need for a well-defined framework supported by geospatial technology to predict, identify, and prioritize the fire potential zone with synergic strategies supported by the local community to mitigate the fire impact on the forests.
... For example, temperature is an accelerating factor in evapotranspiration, while precipitation produces an increase in humidity both in the air and on the ground. Soil moisture is crucial in wildfires and also depends on the type of soil in the area and solar radiation, which in numerous studies has shown a significant correlation with fire generation [9]. Even wind from the literature shows some influence in fire generation; in fact, its intensity increases the chances of ignition, while the direction is influential because air masses arriving over a given region, depending on where they come from, pass over different areas, gaining or losing moisture [10]. ...
Fires are a growing problem even in temperate climate areas, such as those in Central Italy, due to climate change leading to longer and longer periods of drought. Thus, knowing the fire susceptibility of an area is crucial for good planning and taking appropriate countermeasures. In this context, it was decided to use only causal factors of a geomorphological and environmental nature in order to obtain a fire susceptibility analysis that can also be applied to climatically under-sampled areas. Vector data of fires in Central Italy from 2005 to 2023 were collected, and the correct areal extent was calculated for each. At the same time, six factors were selected that could have an influence on fire development, such as ecological units, topographic wetness index (TWI), geology, slope, exposure, and altitude. The model was obtained by means of the weight of evidence statistical method, which takes into account past data by reinterpreting them in a future-oriented way on the basis of the identified factors and classes. The model was validated with a test sample and shows an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.72 with a reliability that can be described as good considering the total absence of climatic factors that are known to play a major role in fire development. Furthermore, the identified causal factors were divided into classes, and these were carefully weighted in order to define their relative influence in the study area. Particularly Ecological Units with characteristic and well-defined contrast (C) values, which could lead to a more complete definition of forests that tend to increase fire susceptibility and those that tend to decrease it, allowing the latter to be exploited as a hazard mitigation agent.
... To better predict future scenarios of Siberian larch forest responses to global warming, more systematic paleoecological studies based on sedaDNA analysis are proposed to produce more reliable estimates of past species ranges and their dispersal rates that can be applied in simulation models. Given the current fast warming in conjunction with permafrost thaw (Biskaborn et al., 2019) and frequent wildfires in Siberia (Ponomarev et al., 2016), we speculate that the dominance of larch forest will remain stable in the short term but their further expansion will likely be constrained by limited moisture availability (Berner et al., 2013). ...
Climate seasonality critically influences the functioning and dynamics of ecosystems in continental areas. The ecological importance of winter temperatures on high-latitude vegetation changes has recently been argued to be largely overlooked in comparison to summer temperatures. The Oymyakon region from eastern Siberia, with its strong continentality of extremely cold winters and moderately warm summers, is ideally suited to study the response of past vegetation to seasonal temperature changes based on long ecological time-series. However, few paleorecords are available from this area. The history of regional glacial activity and potential plant refugia since Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 is not well understood. Here, we present geochemical and plant DNA metabarcoding records retrieved from a sediment core from Lake Ulu in the Oymyakon region, which provides detailed information on glacier and vegetation dynamics over the last 43 cal. ka BP. Our results suggest that glacial fluctuations were primarily driven by summer insolation, and Lake Ulu was likely initiated by glacial retreat during MIS 3. The catchment experienced multiple glacial advance/retreat cycles until the Last Glacial Maximum, and the glaciers fully retreated by 20 cal. ka BP. In addition, a tundra-steppe landscape dominated by Dryas, Papaver, Saliceae, and Anthemideae occupied the catchment for most of the time and began to collapse around 19 cal. ka BP following the expansion of trees and shrubs such as Larix, Betula, Alnus, and Vaccinium. Postglacial plant assemblages in the Oymyakon region exhibit a high sensitivity to summer temperature variations, with minimal impact from winter temperatures. This can be explained by the dominance of summer insolation amplitude, extreme continentality, extended plant growing season, and plant genetic adaptation to cold. Notably, our ancient DNA record show the earliest postglacial expansion of larch in eastern Siberia (around 18.6 cal. ka BP), which is likely related to the presence of local refugia. This implies that the Oymyakon region may be one of the earliest sources for larch recolonization and that more research should be implemented to provide insights into larch expansion and migration, and to better predict the future scenarios for Siberian larch forests.
... Extreme wildfires have become a widespread issue affecting forested regions from tropical to polar latitudes in both hemispheres [1][2][3][4]. Currently, many of these extreme wildfires are categorized as mega fires, characterized by a total burned area exceeding 10,000 ha. ...
... In the second phase, after 1900 UTC, the simulation shows the presence of clouds within the smoke plume, thus indicating a plume-dominated regime. Figure 2c shows that the fire fronts (1 and 2) indicated in Figure 2a had already merged to form a single front at 1933 UTC, which is designated as "Pedrógão Grande" (3). It is also possible to identify the "Góis" fire (4) northeast of Pedrógão, which was another wildfire ignited in the afternoon of 17 June 2017 which burned a total area of 17,521 ha [33]. ...
This study aimed to assess fire–atmosphere interactions using the fully coupled Meso-NH–ForeFire system. We focused on the Pedrógão Grande wildfire (28,914 ha), which occurred in June 2017 and was one of the deadliest and most damaging fires in Portugal’s history. Two simulations (control and fully coupled fire–atmosphere) were performed for three two-way nested domains configured with horizontal resolutions of 2 km, 0.4 km, and 0.08 km, respectively, in the atmospheric model Meso-NH. Fire propagation was modeled within the innermost domain with ForeFire, which solves the fire front with a 20 m resolution, producing the heat and vapor fluxes which are then injected into the atmospheric model. A simplified homogeneous fuel distribution was used in this case study. The fully coupled experiment helped us to characterize the smoke plume structure and identify two different regimes: (1) a wind-driven regime, with the smoke plume transported horizontally southward and in the lower troposphere, and (2) a plume-dominated regime, in which the simulated smoke plume extended vertically up to upper levels, favoring the formation of a pyro-cloud. The simulations were compared, and the results suggest that the change in the fire regime was caused by an outflow that affected the main fire front. Furthermore, the fully coupled simulation allowed us to explore the change in meteorology caused by an extreme fire, namely through the development of a pyro-cloud that also induced outflows that reached the surface. We show that the Meso-NH–ForeFire system may strongly contribute to an improved understanding of extreme wildfires events and associated weather phenomena.
... Tomsk and Krasnoyarsk). Many wildfires are burning in eastern Siberia, creating massive smoke (Ponomarev et al., 2016). Wildfire is a critical environmental disturbance affecting forest dynamics, succession, and the carbon cycle in Siberian forests. ...
... According to [1], the most significant factors influencing the occurrence and development of wildfires are climate change, human activity, and land cover type. The study of [2], carried out for the territory of the Siberian forests, shows that during recent decades, the frequency of forest fires caused by climate changes and the area of burned forests have increased. The occurrence of wildfires, probably, depends on factors that control landscape flammability and ignition frequency, including climatic and weather variables [3,4]. ...
... In [27], we revealed that maximum correlations (r = 0.5-0.6) between number of hotspots and fuel moisture components were observed for DMC and FFMC in the spring and summer months in the south of Western Siberia. Thus, [2,25,26] found that the occurrence of extreme fires in Central Siberia and the Transbaikal region may be associated with anomalies in soil moisture and precipitation. The relative importance and impact of dryness indicators on wildfire vary spatially [59]-it depends on the region and wildfire characteristics [4,60]. ...
The analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of lightning-ignited wildfires and meteorological conditions preceding their occurrence from both dry lightning and lightning with precipitation in Western Siberia for the warm seasons (May–September) of 2016–2021 was carried out. In the Arctic zone, fires from lightnings occur in most cases (83%) almost without precipitation (<2.5 mm/day), whereas in the forest and steppe zones the number of cases is less (81% and 74%, respectively). The most significant changes in meteorological conditions before the ignition were also revealed in the northern part 3–4 days before. Among all considered parameters, the most important role in the occurrence of dry lightning-ignited wildfires belongs to mid-tropospheric instability, lower-tropospheric dryness, and the moisture content of the top soil and surface floor layer. Moreover, in the Arctic zone of Western Siberia, more extreme (hotter and drier) meteorological conditions should be observed for the occurrence of ignition from lightning. The threshold values for the considered meteorological parameters were derived for our region for the first time. Obtained results can be used in the development of models for potential fire hazards prediction in various landscapes, which will have a practical application in various spheres of the national economy.
... Abatzoglou et al. (2019) and Williams et al. (2019) revealed the relationship between the length of fire season and weather extremes, and to impact of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in Western US and Canada. Ponomarev et al. (2016) found that the number of forest fires and burned areas in Siberia increased in recent decades. Turco et al. (2023) estimated that ACC contributed to a 172% increase in summer burned area from 1971 to 2021 in California and over 300% increase from 1996 to 2021. ...
Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of forest fires and future predictions is very important for management strategies. To identify the present status of forest fires in the Kingdom of Thailand and their risk in the future, ten-year forest fire data were used, and a forest fire hotspot was prepared. A geospatial technique was used in the study to characterize the parameters of forest fires in the country and identify future forest fire risk areas. Most of the forest fires in the country were found to be seasonal. Deciduous forests in higher elevations and on moderate slopes were most vulnerable to forest fire. The level of aridity, soil moisture, temperature, precipitation, vegetation status, and topography influenced the spatiotemporal distribution of forest fires in the country. Greater than 50% of fire risks were observed in 22 administrative divisions, and 17 of the 209 protected areas are also in the high-risk category. The final forest fire hotspot map can be used in policy development and successful management strategies. A better monitoring strategy should be used in the fire hotspot areas as a precautionary measure to minimize the anthropogenic causes of forest fires.
... The effects of climate warming on fire and forest dynamics in systems that overlay Yedoma permafrost have particularly strong potential to influence the global carbon cycle due to its vast extent (approximately 1 million km 2 across Siberia and central Alaska) and high carbon content (approximately 500 Gt of carbon; Alexeyev et al., 1995;Zimov et al., 2006). Forest regeneration following wildfire is a driver of long-term ecosystem structure and function in many boreal forests and is regulated by tree seedling recruitment in the postfire environment (Brown et al., 2015;Furyaev et al., 2001;Hollingsworth et al., 2013;Kasischke et al., 2010;Ponomarev et al., 2016;Turner et al., 2002). ...
... In boreal forests, the dominant tree species can influence fire intensity (Rogers et al., 2015), and in larch forests, stand-replacing fires have been shown to create local cooling due to increased albedo (Chen et al., 2018). Stand-replacing fires represent 50%-60% of fires in northeast Siberia (Krylov et al., 2014); the frequency, extent, and prevalence of stand-replacing fires are increasing in the region in recent decades (Ponomarev et al., 2016;Shvidenko & Schepaschenko, 2013). ...
... 110 years, with intervals approaching ca. 200-300 years in more northern altitudes Ponomarev et al., 2016). ...
Abstract Larix cajanderi forests, which occupy vast regions of Siberia, grow atop and protect carbon‐rich permafrost. Regeneration of these forests has important implications for long‐term feedbacks into the climate system and their regeneration is strongest following stand‐replacing fires. The goal of this project was to assess sources of regeneration limitation in L. cajanderi forests in northeastern Siberia. We focused on (1) regeneration potential of stands varying in tree density and (2) analyzing seedling establishment patterns in relationship to microsite conditions (safe sites) in the landscape. Seed sources were assessed through cone counts and stand surveys in the summers of 2017 and 2018 in 17 mature L. cajanderi stands. L. cajanderi recruitment patterns in relationship to safe site availability were assessed in 15 areas, spanning approximately 800 km2 along the northern portion of the Kolyma River (69.5477° N, 161.3641° E). Density of trees in a stand was negatively related to the number of cones that the average tree produced and stands of moderate density produced more cones per area than either high‐ or low‐density stands. L. cajanderi seedling establishment was facilitated by safe sites in the landscape. We discovered strong evidence that safe sites are considerably more important for seedling establishment in lowland sites than upland areas. The biological explanation for this pattern is presently unknown; however, we hypothesize this pattern is driven by persistently wet (marshy) soils in some lowland sites as a limiter of seedling establishment. Overall, these data suggest the potential for complex linkages between forest density, propagule availability, fire, safe sight colonization, and seedling establishment that may regulate long‐term dynamics in the understudied L. cajanderi forests of the Siberian Arctic.
... In the second decade of the 21st century, wildfire occurrence strongly (>3.0 times) increased in Eurasia and twofold in the entire Arctic, which is mostly attributed to the wildfires in East Siberia (Figure 2b). This data is consistent with the pattern of increased fire in the entire Siberia since the 1990s [55] and in Alaska and Canada [23,56,57]. The highest density of wildfires (i.e., fires number per km 2 ) was observed in East Siberia (0.10/km 2 ), with low values in European Russia, West Siberia, and Scandinavia (ca. ...
... The seasonal distribution of wildfires in the extreme years changes from typical for the Arctic unimodal pattern to the bimodal pattern, which is typical for lower latitudes [55]. Thus, in extremely dry years, the longer fire season is accompanied by burning peaks both at the beginning and at the end of the fire season. ...
Citation: Kharuk, V.I.; Dvinskaya, M.L.; Golyukov, A.S.; Im, S.T.; Stalmak, A.V. Lightning-Ignited Wildfires beyond the Polar Circle. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 957. https:// Abstract: Warming-driven lightning frequency increases may influence the burning rate within the circumpolar Arctic and influence vegetation productivity (GPP). We considered wildfire occurrence within the different Arctic sectors (Russian, North American, and Scandinavian). We used satellite-derived (MODIS) data to document changes in the occurrence and geographic extent of wildfires and vegetation productivity. Correlation analysis was used to determine environmental variables (lightning occurrence, air temperature, precipitation, soil and terrestrial moisture content) associated with a change in wildfires. Within the Arctic, the majority (>75%) of wildfires occurred in Russia (and ca. 65% in Eastern Siberia). We found that lightning occurrence increase and moisture are primary factors that meditate the fire frequency in the Arctic. Throughout the Arctic, warming-driven lightning influences fire occurrence observed mainly in Eastern Siberia (>40% of explained variance). Similar values (ca. 40%) at the scale of Eurasia and the entire Arctic are attributed to Eastern Siberia input. Driving by increased lightning and warming, the fires' occurrence boundary is shifting northward and already reached the Arctic Ocean coast in Eastern Siberia. The boundary's extreme shifts synchronized with air temperature extremes (heat waves). Despite the increased burning rate, vegetation productivity rapidly (5-10 y) recovered to pre-fire levels within burns. Together with increasing GPP trends throughout the Arctic, that may offset fires-caused carbon release and maintain the status of the Arctic as a carbon sink.
