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Temporal trends in number of wildfires (a); (R 2 = 0.69) and burned areas (b); (R 2 = 0.47) in Siberia (p < 0.05). Linear trends are shown by a solid line.
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Wildfire number and burned area temporal dynamics within all of Siberia and along a south-north transect in central Siberia (45°-73° N) were studied based on NOAA/AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and Terra/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data and field measuremen...
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... statistics of annual wildfires area and the number of fires in Siberia showed a positive trend (R 2 = 0.69 and 0.47, respectively; p < 0.05) (Figure 2). The correlation of annual burned area with air temperature anomalies was the highest during the June-July period (r = 0.67); correlation with temperature anomalies during the whole fire season (April-September) was lower (r = 0.56). ...
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Citations
... Abatzoglou et al. (2019) and Williams et al. (2019) revealed the relationship between the length of fire season and weather extremes, and to impact of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in Western US and Canada. Ponomarev et al. (2016) found that the number of forest fires and burned areas in Siberia increased in recent decades. Turco et al. (2023) estimated that ACC contributed to a 172% increase in summer burned area from 1971 to 2021 in California and over 300% increase from 1996 to 2021. ...
Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of forest fires and future predictions is very important for management strategies. To identify the present status of forest fires in the Kingdom of Thailand and their risk in the future, ten-year forest fire data were used, and a forest fire hotspot was prepared. A geospatial technique was used in the study to characterize the parameters of forest fires in the country and identify future forest fire risk areas. Most of the forest fires in the country were found to be seasonal. Deciduous forests in higher elevations and on moderate slopes were most vulnerable to forest fire. The level of aridity, soil moisture, temperature, precipitation, vegetation status, and topography influenced the spatiotemporal distribution of forest fires in the country. Greater than 50% of fire risks were observed in 22 administrative divisions, and 17 of the 209 protected areas are also in the high-risk category. The final forest fire hotspot map can be used in policy development and successful management strategies. A better monitoring strategy should be used in the fire hotspot areas as a precautionary measure to minimize the anthropogenic causes of forest fires.
... The effects of climate warming on fire and forest dynamics in systems that overlay Yedoma permafrost have particularly strong potential to influence the global carbon cycle due to its vast extent (approximately 1 million km 2 across Siberia and central Alaska) and high carbon content (approximately 500 Gt of carbon; Alexeyev et al., 1995;Zimov et al., 2006). Forest regeneration following wildfire is a driver of long-term ecosystem structure and function in many boreal forests and is regulated by tree seedling recruitment in the postfire environment (Brown et al., 2015;Furyaev et al., 2001;Hollingsworth et al., 2013;Kasischke et al., 2010;Ponomarev et al., 2016;Turner et al., 2002). ...
... In boreal forests, the dominant tree species can influence fire intensity (Rogers et al., 2015), and in larch forests, stand-replacing fires have been shown to create local cooling due to increased albedo (Chen et al., 2018). Stand-replacing fires represent 50%-60% of fires in northeast Siberia (Krylov et al., 2014); the frequency, extent, and prevalence of stand-replacing fires are increasing in the region in recent decades (Ponomarev et al., 2016;Shvidenko & Schepaschenko, 2013). ...
... 110 years, with intervals approaching ca. 200-300 years in more northern altitudes Ponomarev et al., 2016). ...
Abstract Larix cajanderi forests, which occupy vast regions of Siberia, grow atop and protect carbon‐rich permafrost. Regeneration of these forests has important implications for long‐term feedbacks into the climate system and their regeneration is strongest following stand‐replacing fires. The goal of this project was to assess sources of regeneration limitation in L. cajanderi forests in northeastern Siberia. We focused on (1) regeneration potential of stands varying in tree density and (2) analyzing seedling establishment patterns in relationship to microsite conditions (safe sites) in the landscape. Seed sources were assessed through cone counts and stand surveys in the summers of 2017 and 2018 in 17 mature L. cajanderi stands. L. cajanderi recruitment patterns in relationship to safe site availability were assessed in 15 areas, spanning approximately 800 km2 along the northern portion of the Kolyma River (69.5477° N, 161.3641° E). Density of trees in a stand was negatively related to the number of cones that the average tree produced and stands of moderate density produced more cones per area than either high‐ or low‐density stands. L. cajanderi seedling establishment was facilitated by safe sites in the landscape. We discovered strong evidence that safe sites are considerably more important for seedling establishment in lowland sites than upland areas. The biological explanation for this pattern is presently unknown; however, we hypothesize this pattern is driven by persistently wet (marshy) soils in some lowland sites as a limiter of seedling establishment. Overall, these data suggest the potential for complex linkages between forest density, propagule availability, fire, safe sight colonization, and seedling establishment that may regulate long‐term dynamics in the understudied L. cajanderi forests of the Siberian Arctic.
... In the second decade of the 21st century, wildfire occurrence strongly (>3.0 times) increased in Eurasia and twofold in the entire Arctic, which is mostly attributed to the wildfires in East Siberia (Figure 2b). This data is consistent with the pattern of increased fire in the entire Siberia since the 1990s [55] and in Alaska and Canada [23,56,57]. The highest density of wildfires (i.e., fires number per km 2 ) was observed in East Siberia (0.10/km 2 ), with low values in European Russia, West Siberia, and Scandinavia (ca. ...
... The seasonal distribution of wildfires in the extreme years changes from typical for the Arctic unimodal pattern to the bimodal pattern, which is typical for lower latitudes [55]. Thus, in extremely dry years, the longer fire season is accompanied by burning peaks both at the beginning and at the end of the fire season. ...
Citation: Kharuk, V.I.; Dvinskaya, M.L.; Golyukov, A.S.; Im, S.T.; Stalmak, A.V. Lightning-Ignited Wildfires beyond the Polar Circle. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 957. https:// Abstract: Warming-driven lightning frequency increases may influence the burning rate within the circumpolar Arctic and influence vegetation productivity (GPP). We considered wildfire occurrence within the different Arctic sectors (Russian, North American, and Scandinavian). We used satellite-derived (MODIS) data to document changes in the occurrence and geographic extent of wildfires and vegetation productivity. Correlation analysis was used to determine environmental variables (lightning occurrence, air temperature, precipitation, soil and terrestrial moisture content) associated with a change in wildfires. Within the Arctic, the majority (>75%) of wildfires occurred in Russia (and ca. 65% in Eastern Siberia). We found that lightning occurrence increase and moisture are primary factors that meditate the fire frequency in the Arctic. Throughout the Arctic, warming-driven lightning influences fire occurrence observed mainly in Eastern Siberia (>40% of explained variance). Similar values (ca. 40%) at the scale of Eurasia and the entire Arctic are attributed to Eastern Siberia input. Driving by increased lightning and warming, the fires' occurrence boundary is shifting northward and already reached the Arctic Ocean coast in Eastern Siberia. The boundary's extreme shifts synchronized with air temperature extremes (heat waves). Despite the increased burning rate, vegetation productivity rapidly (5-10 y) recovered to pre-fire levels within burns. Together with increasing GPP trends throughout the Arctic, that may offset fires-caused carbon release and maintain the status of the Arctic as a carbon sink.
... This anomalous increase in temperature alters the humidity of the fuels and, therefore, modifies the severity, the natural regime of boreal forest fires and the burned area, which leads, in turn, to possible feedback effects on climate change (Goldammer and Furyaev 1996;Flannigan et al. 2005;Balshi et al. 2009aBalshi et al. , 2009bTchebakova et al. 2009;Georgiadi et al. 2010;de Groot et al. 2013;Kelly et al. 2013;Coffield et al. 2019). The monitoring of For full list of author affiliations and declarations see end of paper these changes and the analysis of future scenarios are of vital importance to implement management policies on climate change that protect both the boreal forest and the carbon it stores (Bonan et al. 1992;Fuchs et al. 2009;Shuman et al. 2011;Loboda et al. 2012;Krylov et al. 2014;Ponomarev et al. 2016). ...
... As Chuvieco et al. (2008) argue, 'Longer time series data are required to acquire a better understanding of fire regimes, and their mutual relationships with global warming.' In spite of the fact that current satellite remote sensing systems (and their derived fire products) have enhanced temporal, spatial and spectral resolutions, the availability of wellbuilt geospatial time series is scarce for Eurasia, especially for Siberia (de Groot et al. 2013;Chen et al. 2016a;Eberle et al. 2016;Ponomarev et al. 2016). In addition, measures from satellite data present strong discrepancies in BA estimations with regard to reported data in the official records Sukhinin et al. 2004;Vivchar 2011;Kukavskaya 2013;Chen et al. 2016b), unlike North America, which has been well studied (Kasischke and French 1995;Al-Saadi et al. 2008;Chuvieco et al. 2008;Soja et al. 2009;Kasischke et al. 2011;Moreno Ruiz et al. 2012;Loboda et al. 2013;Moreno-Ruiz et al. 2014a, 2014b. ...
Background. Fires in the boreal forest occur with natural frequencies and patterns. Burned area (BA) is an essential variable in assessing the impact of climate change in boreal regions. Aims. Spatial wildfire occurrence data since the 1950s are available for North America. However, there are no reliable data for Eurasia, mainly for Siberia, during the 1980s and 1990s. Methods. A Bayesian-network algorithm was applied to the Long-Term Data Record (LTDR) Version 5 to generate a BA DataSet (BA-LTDR-DS) for the Boreal region from 1982 to 2020, validated using official reference data and compared with the MODIS MCD64A1 product. Key results. A high correlation (>93%) with all the reference BA datasets was found. BA-LTDR-DS data grouped by decades estimated a linear increase in BA of 4.47 million ha/decade. This trend provides evidence of how global warming affects fire activity in these boreal forests. Conclusions. BA-LTDR-DS constitutes a unique data source for the pre-MODIS era, and becomes a reliable source when other products with higher spatial/spectral resolution are not available. Implications. The BA-LTDR-DS dataset constitutes the longest time series developed for the boreal region at this spatial resolution. BA-LTDR-DS could be used as input in global climate models, helping improve wildfire prediction capabilities and understand the interactions between fire, climate and vegetation dynamics.
... The latter also contributes to an increase in surface temperature [50]. Ponomarev et al. (2016) [3] demonstrated the significant relationship between forest fire characteristics in Siberia, surface temperature, and incoming solar radiation. Thus, regardless of the contribution of the three factors, we evaluated the role of wave breaking and blocking as crucial drivers of surface temperature anomalies in summer 2019. ...
... The latter also contributes to an increase in surface temperature [50]. Ponomarev et al. (2016) [3] demonstrated the significant relationship between forest fire characteristics in Siberia, surface temperature, and incoming solar radiation. Thus, regardless of the contribution of the three factors, we evaluated the role of wave breaking and blocking as crucial drivers of surface temperature anomalies in summer 2019. ...
... Figure 16 presents the total emissions of CO (from biomass burning) from 2003 to 2019, with the highest emissions recorded in 2019. This confirms the earlier findings of Ponomarev et al. (2016) regarding changes in wildfire numbers and burned areas in Siberia [3]. As stated in [3], the number of forest fires and the size of burned areas have increased (1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015). ...
In 2019, the southern region of Eastern Siberia (located between 45° N and 60° N) experienced heavy floods, while the northern region (between 60° N and 75° N) saw intense forest fires that lasted for almost the entire summer, from 25 June to 12 August. To investigate the causes of these natural disasters, we analyzed the large-scale features of atmospheric circulation, specifically the Rossby wave breaking and atmospheric blocking events. In the summer of 2019, two types of Rossby wave breaking were observed: a cyclonic type, with a wave breaking over Siberia from the east (110° E–115° E), and an anticyclonic type, with a wave breaking over Siberia from the west (75° E–90° E). The sequence of the Rossby wave breaking and extreme weather events in summer, 2019 are as follows: 24–26 June (cyclonic type, extreme precipitation, flood), 28–29 June and 1–2 July (anticyclonic type, forest fires), 14–17 July (both types of breaking, forest fires), 25–28 July (cyclonic type, extreme precipitation, flood), 2 and 7 August (anticyclonic type, forest fires). Rossby wave breaking occurred three times, resulting in the formation and maintenance of atmospheric blocking over Eastern Siberia: 26 June–3 July, 12–21 July and 4–10 August. In general, the scenario of the summer events was as follows: cyclonic Rossby wave breaking over the southern part of Eastern Siberia (45° N–60° N) caused extreme precipitation (floods) and led to low gradients of potential vorticity and potential temperature in the west and east of Lake Baikal. The increased wave activity flux from the Europe–North Atlantic sector caused the anticyclonic-type Rossby wave breaking to occur west of the area of a low potential vorticity gradient and north of 60° N. This, in turn, contributed to the maintenance of blocking anticyclones in the north of Eastern Siberia, which led to the intensification and expansion of the area of forest fires. These events were preceded by an increase in the amplitude of the quasi-stationary wave structure over the North Atlantic and Europe during the first half of June.
... Previous studies based on satellite observations showed that vegetation fire activity in the circum-Arctic fluctuated and appeared to be increasing overall since 21st century, and had the obvious seasonality with most fires concentrated in boreal forest areas of Eurasia and North America during spring and summer months (Justino et al., 2021;Zhang et al., 2021). For some areas, the increasing trend of vegetation fires was clear, such as in Alaska and Siberia (Ponomarev et al., 2016;Thoman and Walsh, 2019). While in recent years, extreme vegetation fire events increased in the circum-Arctic. ...
... Changing climate indirectly impacts boreal forests through increased wildfire extent, frequency and severity (Groisman et al., 2007;Johnstone et al., 2016;Johnstone & Kasischke, 2005; Z. Liu et al., 2012;Ponomarev et al., 2016;Stocks et al., 1998). Unusual wildfire events can function as a trigger of vegetation change in fire-dependent ecosystems, as more severe fires driven by warming climate alter the seedbed through the exposure of more mineral soils, promoting the germination and establishment of light-seeded hardwood trees over more heavily seeded conifers (Cai et al., 2013;Groisman et al., 2007;Johnstone et al., 2016;Johnstone & Kasischke, 2005;Ponomarev et al., 2016;Stocks et al., 1998). ...
... Changing climate indirectly impacts boreal forests through increased wildfire extent, frequency and severity (Groisman et al., 2007;Johnstone et al., 2016;Johnstone & Kasischke, 2005; Z. Liu et al., 2012;Ponomarev et al., 2016;Stocks et al., 1998). Unusual wildfire events can function as a trigger of vegetation change in fire-dependent ecosystems, as more severe fires driven by warming climate alter the seedbed through the exposure of more mineral soils, promoting the germination and establishment of light-seeded hardwood trees over more heavily seeded conifers (Cai et al., 2013;Groisman et al., 2007;Johnstone et al., 2016;Johnstone & Kasischke, 2005;Ponomarev et al., 2016;Stocks et al., 1998). This phenomenon is well-studied in North American boreal forests, where wildfire has facilitated shifts from conifer-dominance to the dominance of deciduous broadleaf species, altering the spatial distribution of carbon Mack et al., 2021). ...
... In northeast Siberia, tall deciduous shrubs (>0.5 and <1.5 m), particularly Betula nana L. and Salix spp., are abundant where tree density is low (Paulson et al., 2021). Fire is widespread in the region, with fire frequency (Ponomarev et al., 2016) and burned area (Talucci et al., 2022) increasing in response to climatic changes, yet the extent to which large scale shifts in tree density occur remains unclear. ...
In post‐fire Siberian larch forests, where tree density can vary within a burn perimeter, shrubs constitute a substantial portion of the vegetation canopy. Leaf area index (LAI), defined as the one‐sided total green leaf area per unit ground surface area, is useful for characterizing variation in plant canopies. We estimated LAI with allometry for trees and tall shrubs (>0.5 and <1.5 m) across 26 sites with varying tree stem density (0.05–3.3 stems/m²) and canopy cover (4.6%–76.9%) in a uniformly‐aged mature Siberian larch forest that regenerated following a fire ∼75 years ago. We investigated relationships between tree density, tree LAI, and tall shrub LAI, and between LAI and satellite observations of Normalized Difference and Enhanced Vegetation Indices (NDVI and EVI). Across the density gradient, tree LAI increases with increasing tree density, while tall shrub LAI decreases, exhibiting no patterns in combined tree‐shrub LAI. We also found significant positive relationships between tall shrub LAI and NDVI/EVI from PlanetScope and Landsat imagery. These findings suggest that tall shrubs compensate for lower tree LAI in tree canopy gaps, forming a canopy with contiguous combined tree‐shrub LAI across the density gradient. Our findings suggest that NDVI and EVI are more sensitive to variation in tall shrub canopies than variation in tree canopies or combined tree‐shrub canopies in these ecosystems. The results improve our understanding of the relationships between forest density and tree and shrub leaf area and have implications for interpreting spatial variability in LAI, NDVI, and EVI in Siberian boreal forests.
... In previous studies on fires in permafrost regions, high temperature and drought have been considered the main factors triggering fires [23], and the increase in forest fires in permafrost regions is attributed to temperature increases, which lead to earlier melting of snow cover in spring, increased evaporation, earlier ground exposure, and dry ground, thereby promoting the spread of fires [52] However, the spring wildfires in the northern Xiaoxing'an Mountains mainly occurred in swamp wetlands, which accounted for 16.81% of the total area of the study area. Seasonal changes in topsoil moisture in these regions are mainly driven by freeze-thaw cycles of seasonally frozen soil, with surface moisture usually having higher values during snow thaw in spring [53]. ...
Affected by global warming, methane gas released by permafrost degradation may increase the frequency of wildfires, and there are few studies on wildfires in permafrost regions and their correlation with climate and regional methane emissions. The northwestern section of the Xiaoxing’an Mountains in China was selected as the study area, and the spatial relationship between permafrost and spring wildfires was studied based on Landsat TM and Sentinel-2 data. Combined with monitoring data of air temperature, humidity, and methane concentration, the impact of methane emissions on spring wildfires was analyzed. The study shows that the spatial distribution of fire scars in spring is highly consistent with permafrost, and the change trend of fire scars is in line with the law of permafrost degradation. Wildfires occur intensively during the snow melting period in spring, and the temporal variation pattern is basically consistent with the methane concentration. The number of fire points was positively correlated with air temperature and methane concentration in March and April, and spring wildfires in permafrost regions are the result of a combination of rising seasonal temperatures, surface snow melting, and concentrated methane emissions. Larger areas of discontinuous permafrost are more prone to recurring wildfires.
... A major challenge is the observed 21st century increase in tundra fire activity across the Arctic (Hu et al. 2010(Hu et al. , 2015Abbott et al. 2016), where a pattern of greater fire frequency, magnitude and severity has emerged in recent decades (e.g. Jones et al. 2009;Higuera et al. 2011;French et al. 2015;Hu et al. 2015;Ponomarev et al. 2016;Gibson et al. 2018;Masrur et al. 2018;Evangeliou et al. 2019;McCarty et al. 2020a). ...
Background: Recent widely reported large tundra fires in western Greenland have focused attention on the fire regime in a region that is currently under-represented in global fire research.
Aims: We present an analysis of fire incidence from 1995 to 2020.
Methods: A combination of satellite remote sensing and a review of reports in the online version of the national newspaper, Sermitsiaq.AG, were used to identify wildfires.
Key results: Our analysis did not detect fires from 1995 to 2007. From 2008, 21 separate fire events were identified in selected study areas covering ~47% of ice-free western Greenland. All but four of the 21 fires ignited in July or August during periods of warm and dry weather.
Conclusions: We find no evidence of fires in our study areas until 2008, after which fires occur in most years.
Implications: Projected warming and reduced summer precipitation in this region in upcoming decades suggest the landscape will become increasingly prone to tundra fires.
... The trend of annual mean 8-day Fluxcom GPP (unit: % year −1 ) from 2001 to 2018 is shown in Figure S8 of Supporting Information S1. Kukavskaya et al., 2016;Ponomarev et al., 2016Ponomarev et al., , 2019. In contrast, East China exhibits strong positive trends of approximately +0.3ppm/year. ...
An increase in the seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of atmospheric CO2 since the 1960s has been observed in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). However, the underlying dominant drivers are still debated. The peak season CO2 uptake by vegetation is critical in shaping the CO2 seasonality. Using satellite‐upscaled gross primary production (GPP) from FLUXCOM and near‐infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRV), we demonstrate that peak GPP has increased across the NH over the last two decades. We relate this productivity increase to changes in the CO2 SCA using an atmospheric transport model. The increased photosynthesis has strongly contributed to CO2 SCA trends, but with substantial latitudinal and longitudinal variations. Despite a general increase in the CO2 SCA, there are distinct regional differences. These differences are mainly controlled by regional biosphere carbon fluxes, with the remainder explained by non‐biome factors, including large‐scale atmospheric transport, changes in fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and oceanic fluxes. Using the global flask and in situ CO2 measurement sites, we find that SCA trends at high latitude are mainly driven by increasingly productive natural ecosystems, whereas mid latitude sites around the Midwest United States are mainly impacted by intensified agriculture and atmospheric transport. Averaging across the 15 long‐term surface sites, forests contribute 26% (7%) to the SCA trends, while crops contribute 17% (24%) and the combined shrubland, grassland and wetland regions contribute 23% (37%) for simulations driven by FLUXCOM (NIRv) ecosystem fluxes. Our findings demonstrate that satellite inferred trends of ecosystem fluxes can capture the observed CO2 SCA trend.
