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Temperature evolution over Europe based on the CMIP3 simulations driven by the emission scenarios A2 (red), A1B (green) und B1 (blue). The bold colored lines depict the multi-model mean for each scenario; the shadings indicated the standard deviation. Adopted from Prein et al. (2011).
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Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st c...
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Citations
... Furthermore, the seasonal climatologies reveal a shift of maximum precipitation away from the summer season for some stations. Such shifts in seasonality and an overall decrease in summer precipitation have previously been predicted (e.g., Gobiet et al., 2014;Paparrizos et al., 2017;Feldmann et al., 2013). Prior to this study, no ESD-GCMbased predictions of the 21st century precipitation changes had been developed for the weather stations of the catchment. ...
The nature and severity of climate change impacts vary significantly from region to region. Consequently, high-resolution climate information is needed for meaningful impact assessments and the design of mitigation strategies. This demand has led to an increase in the application of empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) models to general circulation model (GCM) simulations of future climate. In contrast to dynamical downscaling, the perfect prognosis ESD (PP-ESD) approach has several benefits, including low computation costs, the prevention of the propagation of GCM-specific errors, and high compatibility with different GCMs. Despite their advantages, the use of ESD models and the resulting data products is hampered by (1) the lack of accessible and user-friendly downscaling software packages that implement the entire downscaling cycle, (2) difficulties reproducing existing data products and assessing their credibility , and (3) difficulties reconciling different ESD-based predictions for the same region. We address these issues with a new open-source Python PP-ESD modeling framework called pyESD. pyESD implements the entire down-scaling cycle, i.e., routines for data preparation, predictor selection and construction, model selection and training, evaluation , utility tools for relevant statistical tests, visualiza-tion, and more. The package includes a collection of well-established machine learning algorithms and allows the user to choose a variety of estimators, cross-validation schemes, objective function measures, and hyperparameter optimization in relatively few lines of code. The package is well-documented, highly modular, and flexible. It allows quick and reproducible downscaling of any climate information, such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed, or even short-term glacier length and mass changes. We demonstrate the use and effectiveness of the new PP-ESD framework by generating weather-station-based downscaling products for precipitation and temperature in complex mountainous terrain in southwestern Germany. The application example covers all important steps of the downscaling cycle and different levels of experimental complexity. All scripts and datasets used in the case study are publicly available to (1) ensure the reproducibility and replicability of the modeled results and (2) simplify learning to use the software package.
... They are quite centrally located in Europe, and act as a natural barrier between the inner continent and the extended Mediterranean area. Comprehensive overviews on the Alpine climate, including its major drivers and feedbacks to larger-scale flow conditions, has been provided by Schär et al. (1998) and Gobiet et al. (2014). Being an area rich in natural resources, the Alps are densely populated in most of their parts. ...
The article presents a recent update of a comprehensive dataset of long‐term series of precipitation data from instrumental observations in the Greater Alpine Region (GAR), that is, the region of Europe including the Alpine mountain range and their nearer surroundings (4°–19° E in longitude and 43°–49° N in latitude). A comparison to different national homogenized datasets is also presented. Results show that in the national homogenized datasets more breaks have been detected due to higher station density. They also demonstrate the necessity of constant exchange with data providers. The resulting trends in all datasets are mainly weak and only a minority of them is statistically significant. In most cases the similarity of statistical index numbers are promising, with, for example, small RMSE between the presented new HISTALP homogenization and the time series of the national homogenized datasets. Nevertheless, for some stations higher differences occur and break signals are not what would be expected due to possible causes in the station history. The differences between the national and the HISTALP new homogenization—due to, for example, different methods used, different points in time when the homogenization took place, different options of data handling (combination of station data, gap filling routines, …) and different reference stations—illustrate the inherent uncertainty unavoidably associated to homogenization and point out the need of careful communication and use of the data. On the other hand, the results highlight the advantage of consistently homogenized datasets, versus the risks associated with mixing results from different homogenizations.
... The evolution of landslides in mountainous terrains is influenced by climatic factors (Stoffel and Huggel, 2012) such as variations in temperature, rainfall intensity and/or snowmelt, which are expected to worsen in the future due to climate change (Beniston et al., 2018;Gobiet et al., 2014). Since late 1900, reports of widespread and increasingly frequent slope failures in high portions of the Alps Stoffel et al., 2014) have brought attention to the effects of climate change on the dynamics of slope failures. ...
In this work, we investigate a slow-moving, large landslide (~20 km2) in the Chitral district in Northern Pakistan, near several villages. The slow-moving landslide was reported more than four decades ago but has never been examined afterward. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) analyses, using Sentinel-1 data that span a period of six years, allowed us to retrieve the spatio-temporal pattern of hillslope deformation. We combined both ascending and descending orbits to identify vertical and horizontal deformations. Our results showed that the crown is moving relatively fast in comparison to the nearby regions; 30 mm/year and 40 mm/year in downward and eastward directions, respectively. Also, step-like deformations observed over the crown reflect a deep-seated landslide. At the footslope, on the other hand, we captured relatively high deformations but in an upward direction; specifically 30 mm/year and 30 mm/year in upward and eastward directions, respectively. We have discussed the possible roles of meteorologic and anthropogenic factors causing hillslope deformation occurred during the six-year period under consideration. We observed a seasonal deformation patterns that might be mainly interpreted to be governed by the influence of snowmelt due to increasing temperatures during the start of spring. Overall, the same mechanism might be present in many other hillslopes across the whole Hindukush-Himalayan-Karakoram range, where seasonal snowmelt is an active agent. In this context, this research provides a case study shedding a light on the hillslope deformation mechanism at the western edge of the Himalayan range.
... In the European Alps, global warming has led to an average temperature increase about twice as large as the average in the northern hemisphere, resulting in about 2 • C of warming (Auer et al., 2007;Gobiet et al., 2014) from the late 19th century to the present. Alpine glaciers reacted by losing a significant fraction of ice mass at an unprecedented rate during the last 20 years (Davaze et al., 2020;Sommer et al., 2020). ...
Small glaciers of temperate mountain regions are suffering significant reduction, with ice mass losses reaching unprecedented melt rates in the very last years. On the other hand, several glacial bodies experienced increasing debris inputs since the end of the Little Ice Age, transitioning from rather clean ice to debris-covered and, sometimes, to rock glaciers. Here we present the recent surface elevation change (2006–2022) of the Popera Alto glacier, a very small debris-covered glacier in the Sesto Dolomites (S-E European Alps), retrieved from a combination of airborne LiDAR and Structure from Motion surveys. We analyse the glacier evolution in terms of surface cover and geomorphic processes, reconstructing its palaeo-volume and -extent from geomorphological evidence. The environmental Equilibrium Line Altitude (envELA) based on climatic data is compared to the effective ELA (effELA), discussing the role of local topography in the evolution of small debris-covered glaciers. Popera Alto glacier lost 0.35 m w.e. yr−1 in the last 16 years, with its surface cover actively modified by geomorphic processes. Debris and local topography feedback allowed the resilience of the glacier, with marked difference between the current envELA of the area, 3480 m a.s.l., and the effELA of the glacier, 2550 m a.s.l. As such, Popera Alto glacier shows evidence of transitioning from a glacial to a periglacial landform.
... The European Alps, as a mountain environment, face global warming and changing precipitation conditions to an exceptionally high degree and are warming up more than the global average (Auer et al., 2007;Rebetez and Reinhard, 2008;Gobiet et al., 2014). The impacts of climate change on lowland soils and their functions have already been reviewed intensively, especially in terms of soil organic material and soil biology (e. g., Kirschbaum, 2000;Jones et al., 2009;von Lützow and Kögel-Knabner, 2009;Naylor et al., 2020). ...
... The latest knowledge on the observation, detection, and future projection of climate-related changes in the cryosphere and resulting impacts in the context of high mountains areas has been reviewed intensively for the European Alps (e. g., Gobiet et al., 2014;Knight and Harrison, 2014;Huss et al., 2017;Beniston et al., 2018;Haeberli and Whiteman, 2021) and is summarized in the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in Climate Change ("SROCC", Hock et al., 2019). In the following, we highlight the most important findings on climatedriven impacts on glaciers, snow, and (perma) frost. ...
A review of the status of research on high mountain soils and their alterations caused by changes in the cryosphere in the European Alps is given. Soils of high mountain environments are not only exposed to atmospheric warming, rising CO2 levels, and changing precipitation patterns but also to climate-driven changes in the cryosphere. The massive reduction of glacier coverage as well as snow cover and (perma)frost extent can affect soils in various ways. We performed a comprehensive literature analysis and considered both the direct impacts (changes in surface coverage or ground thermal conditions) and indirect impacts (changing hydrosphere, lithosphere/geomorphodynamics, or biosphere) of cryosphere changes on soil. All considered studies had a multidisciplinary character: around 34 % of the articles covered two spheres (cryosphere, pedosphere), 40 % covered three spheres (cryosphere, pedosphere, and an additional sphere), and 26 % covered more than three spheres. Most studies focused on initial soil formation in glacier forefields. The impact of changing geomorphodynamics on soils is underrepresented in literature, even though it is one of the major consequences of changes in the cryosphere. We therefore finally discuss possible consequences of changing geomorphodynamics due to changes in the cryosphere for high mountain soils.
... The considered lakes/ponds have been studied since the 90s [11,14,28] and here we collated information on macroinvertebrate and chironomid assemblages derived from the above-mentioned publications covering the period (2000-2011). Only high-altitude natural lakes/ponds were considered, defined as surface standing waters characterised by areas >1 ha (0.01 km 2 ) and maximum depths >1 m [36], placed in proximity of or beyond the tree line determined by tree-growth limiting environmental conditions [37]. ...
... We found a correlation (altitude, temperature, and several biodiversity metrics) in our analyses, supporting our last hypothesis (H 4 ). Macroinvertebrate assemblages are shown to become less diverse with altitude (and decreasing temperature), leading to a species richness decrease with higher elevation (and lower temperature) in line with previous studies [14,58,75]. The Distinctness of macroinvertebrates as a whole is greater in the MA lakes where richness is higher, and the taxa present are less specialized to high-altitude habitats. ...
A comparative analysis of environmental conditions between Alpine and Apennine lakes/ponds which represent different faces of European mountain regions was conducted. The data set was created on the basis of previous works carried out by national and international institutions including biological, physical–chemical, geographic, and precipitation data from 27 lakes/ponds placed at altitudes ranging from 2334 ± 294 m a.s.l. (in the Alps) and 1541 ± 154 m a.s.l. (in the Apennines), with mean maximum depths of about 5.5 ± 4.6 m. A specific focus was dedicated to chironomids as outstanding sentinels for local and global changes in habitat conditions. Species richness and Taxonomic Distinctness Indices were applied to lakes/ponds macroinvertebrates to highlight differences in the biodiversity of the two areas. Subsequently, associations between descriptors of the mountain region climate, lithology, water chemistry, lake morphology, geography, macroinvertebrate assemblage richness, and distinctness were examined through Principal Component Analysis, Analysis of Variance, and Non-metric Multi-dimensional Scaling. Results showed strong positive correlations between mean annual precipitation and temperature with lake macroinvertebrate biodiversity as a whole and with chironomid in particular. Thus, these shore habitats face a threat under climate change conditions (impacting thermal and precipitation regimes). These results are also central in showing that even small ecosystems are important sources of biodiversity for the lower altitudes, stressing the urgency of including them within targeted monitoring and action plans to preserve their peculiar habitat, flora, and fauna.
... Recently, however, a whole industry and way of life struggled facing the multiple socioecological crises in the Anthropocene (see the poem in Figure 1). With alpine areas warming almost twice that of average global temperatures (Gobiet et al., 2014), snow security is decreasing across the Alps. Faced with ever-rising temperature, opening ski areas "in time" requires even more financial and natural resources to continue alpine skiing, such as more energy and other resources like water to create artificial snow and compensate for the lack of natural snow (Steiger et al., 2022;Steiger & Scott, 2020). ...
This study conceptualizes alpine skiing as a troubled and troubling leisure practice in the context of the Anthropocene. It employs a critical feminist new materialist lens and a diffractive methodology to unravel, critique, and undo the multifaceted more-than-human relations with snow and landscapes in alpine skiing. The study contends that alpine skiing is troubled by its capitalist, extractive, and exploit-ative relations with nature. Diffraction disrupts these relations by cutting through dualities and boundaries. Through diffractive vignettes of contaminating, collaborating, annihilating, and speculating, the findings illustrate the tensions and entanglement at the core of alpine skiing and how they matter for more-than-human relations. The study contributes by demonstrating how a diffractive engagement with leisure can be productive of troubling, caring, and thinking-with more-than-humans in hopeful futures beyond the Anthropocene.
... The complex interplay between rainfall, snow melt, and temperature (water and air) during the summer season showed the capability to drive daily and seasonal NO 3 − concentrations in the investigated pond. In the European Alps, significant increases in air temperature (Gobiet et al., 2014) and snow line elevation (Koehler et al., 2022), as well as reductions in snow cover duration (Klein et al., 2016), snow depth (Matiu et al., 2021), and snow water equivalent (Marty et al., 2017;Colombo et al., 2022;Colombo et al., 2023), have occurred in the last decades. These occurrences are expected to become even more dramatic in the future (Gobiet et al., 2014;Beniston et al., 2018). ...
... In the European Alps, significant increases in air temperature (Gobiet et al., 2014) and snow line elevation (Koehler et al., 2022), as well as reductions in snow cover duration (Klein et al., 2016), snow depth (Matiu et al., 2021), and snow water equivalent (Marty et al., 2017;Colombo et al., 2022;Colombo et al., 2023), have occurred in the last decades. These occurrences are expected to become even more dramatic in the future (Gobiet et al., 2014;Beniston et al., 2018). Regional climate model simulations also indicate that summer rainfall at Alpine high elevations will increase due to global warming, despite the expected largescale precipitation reduction (Giorgi et al., 2016) and drought event increases (Spinoni et al., 2018), together with potential increases in heavy precipitation and hot temperature extremes (Scherrer et al., 2016). ...
High-resolution temporal measurements in remote, high-elevation surface waters are required to better understand
the dynamics of nitrate (NO3 ) in response to changes in meteoclimatic conditions. This study reports on the
first use of a UV–Vis submersible spectrophotometric probe (UV–Vis probe) to measure the hourly concentration
of nitrate nitrogen (NO3 -N) in a pond located at 2722 m a.s.l. in an alpine tundra area (NW Italian Alps), during
two snow-free seasons (July–October) in 2014 and 2015. Weekly analyses of NO3 -N and stable isotopes of water
(δ18O and δ2H), together with continuous meteorological, water temperature, and turbidity measurements, were
performed over the same period. The integration of in-situ UV–Vis spectrophotometric measurements with
weekly samples allowed depicting the role of summer precipitation, snow melt, and temperature (air and water)
in influencing NO3 dynamics. Short-duration meteorological events (e.g., summer storms and rain-on-snow
events) produced rapid variations of in-pond NO3 concentration, i.e., fivefold increase in 18 h, that would not
be detectable using the traditional manual collection of discrete samples. The observed seasonal variability of
NO3 concentration, negatively correlated with water temperature, highlighted the important role of in-pond
biological processes leading to an enhanced N uptake and to the lowest NO3 concentration in the warmer periods.
The occurrence of heavy rainfall events critically altered the expected seasonal NO3 trends, increasing the
N supply to the pond. The comparison of N dynamics in two years characterised by extremely different
meteoclimatic conditions allowed us to obtain insights on the potential effects of climate changes (e.g., high air
temperature, heavy rainfalls, and rain-on-snow events) on sensitive aquatic ecosystems as high-elevation ponds.
... Partly, this increase is attributable to climate change. This finding correlates with previous reports on Africa (Fauchereau et al., 2003), Europe (Gobiet et al., 2014), globally (Etkin et al., 2012) and the increased impact of disasters on health reported in (Rossati, 2016;Bergholt and Lujala, 2012). It is instructive to note that despite an increase in the rate at which disasters occur, their intensities and overall impact, and the trend in mortality is rather on the decrease [ Figure 1(a)]. ...
Post-disaster management requires a proportional deployment of human and material resources. The number of resources required to manage a disaster cannot be known without first evaluating the extent of casualty and consequence. This study proposed a taxonomy for classifying natural disasters based on casualty and consequence. Using a secondary data on global disasters from 1900 to 2021, the hierarchical cluster analysis technique was deployed for taxonomy formation. The learning algorithm evaluated the similarities in numbers of deaths, injuries, and the cost of damaged property caused by disasters. Three clusters were extracted which sub-grouped historical disasters based on similarities in casualty and consequence. Further, a taxonomy that defines the ranges of what constitute low, average, and high deaths/injuries/damage were established. Classifying a future disaster with this taxonomy prior to the deployment of resources for rescue, resettlement, compensation, and other disaster management operations will guide efficient resource allocation on a case-by-case basis.
... Although the proposed methodology proved to be robust and was able to generate reliable estimates of pasture vigour, some limitations should be reported. Our approach did not explicitly consider extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods, snow, or frost, which are expected to become more frequent in the upcoming decades [54], nor even perturbations motivated by anthropic practices, such as fire hazards that are a relevant factor for small and isolated areas [55], which, similar to climate extremes, could cause a delay in the phenological cycle of pastures and influence the spatial distribution pattern. Furthermore, future projections of vegetation growth under different climate change scenarios may be greatly influenced by the CO 2 fertilisation effect [56], which was not considered in our modelling approach. ...
Grasslands are key elements of the global agricultural system, covering around two-thirds of all agricultural areas and playing an important role in biodiversity conservation, food security, and balancing the carbon cycle. Climate change is a growing challenge for the agricultural sector and may threaten grasslands. To address these challenges, it is vital to conduct in-depth climate studies to understand the vulnerability of grasslands. In this study, machine learning was used to build an advanced model able to evaluate the future impact of climate change on grassland vigour. The objective was to identify the most vulnerable grassland areas, analyse the interaction between climate and grassland performance, and outline management strategies against the detrimental implications of climate change. A Random Forest (RF) regression was used to model the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) using the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The model explained 76% of the NDVI variability. The foremost significant predictors of grassland vigour are the SPEI with temporal lags of 1, 4, and 12 months. These findings suggest that the vegetative status of grasslands exhibits high sensitivity to short-term drought while also being influenced by the memory of past climatic events over longer periods. Future projections indicate an overall reduction in grassland vigour, mostly in RCP8.5. The results indicate that negative effects will be more pronounced in mountainous regions, which currently host the most vigorous grasslands. Dry lowlands in the north should continue to have the lowest vigour in the future. A substantial reduction in vigour is expected in autumn, with an effect on grassland phenology. The development of grasslands in winter, favoured by increasing temperatures and precipitation, can advance the harvesting of grassland (cutting) and the grazing of livestock. To ensure that vigour is maintained in less favourable zones, adaptation measures will be needed, as well as more efficient management of highlands to provide an adequate level of production.
