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This paper tries to review innovation diffusion models which are used in market research and diffusion of innovation.
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... of the models discussed above exhibit the non-linearity and follow the S-shaped growth pattern, popularly known as ‘logistic model’ . Due to its mathematical simplicity and relatively wide applicability, the logistic curve itself has many derivatives. It can be generalized by adding more parameters to fit the empirical data. This model has been extensively applied in the innovation diffusion and marketing research. The logistic law of growth assumes that a system grows exponentially until an upper limit inherent in the system is approached, at which point the growth rate slows and eventually saturates, characterizing S-shaped curve (Stone 1980), which may be symmetrical or non-symmetrical as shown in Figure 1.1 and Figure 1.2. It is a basic model in innovation diffusion literature and has broad range of applicability. S-curve has been found to be very versatile and hence was applied by scientists and researchers to analyze innumerable cases of various kinds. In general this model can describe development- taking place in any area including biology, socio-economic and technology. However, most of its applications found in the literature centered around in the following fields: Growth of human population Development of organisms Spread of new technology, technique and many more. Notwithstanding, since its inception the logistic model has undergone for various criticisms by economists, statisticians and biologists for validity and generalization of its application. Smith (1952) first tried to justify logistic curve as a model and law of growth. (Marchetti and Nakicenovic, 1979, Nakicenovic, 1987, Grubler, 1990a, 1990b) have done a pioneering work to generalize and promote logistic model and they have attempted to raise the logistic function to the status of a natural law of growth. As a result this curve has been used as a forecasting tool in several fields and disciplines. In the following section these issues are discussed in detail. The logistic model is a function of time and used to model natural systems involving growth with natural resources. This simple model along with differential equation with its general S-shaped curve is familiar to mathematicians, natural and social scientists alike. The credit of logistic model goes to the Belgium mathematician Pierre-François Vurhulst (1838). He argued that in the early stage of growth a population would increase exponentially until such time when the resources are not crucial. He assumed that rate of growth is retarded by some function linearly proportionally to the size of the maximum carrying capacity, and developed a differential equation for symmetrical sigmoidal curve of growth, which he called logistic curve. Apart from natural phenomenon the non-linear S-shaped logistic pattern is also observed for technologies and new product diffusion. The Logistic curve has a long history of development and several parametric developments have taken place on introducing new parameters and terms to the original equation. The selection of an S-shaped model is a common step in attempts to model and forecast the diffusion of innovations. From the innovation diffusion literature on model selection, forecasting, and the uncertainties associated with forecasts, the following assumptions have been ...
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... В работах, посвященных анализу истории разработки моделей распространения инноваций, часто не уделяется достаточного внимания активно развивающимся в последние годы эко-нофизическим подходам [12]. Обоснование использования физических подходов к описанию экономических процессов включает в себя наличие неравновесных и переходных процессов, флуктуаций и случайных процессов. ...
The process of technical and economic justification of investment, analysis and evaluation of the effectiveness of innovation requires a tool for describing and modeling the process of distribution of technology in the industry. The work presents a model of propagation of innovation involving physical approaches, describing the market saturation point, i.e. the point at which the exponential growth of the innovation propagation speed is replaced by the logarithmic growth. The object of the study is the propagation of innovation, and the subject is the development of the market saturation point functional. The authors justified the implementation and described the approach to modeling of the process of saturation of the market with innovation by the physical Ising model. The value of the Ising model’s toolkit is presented by the Curie point in ferromagnets which characterizes the second order phase transition. The article presents the mathematical model of the compliance of physical parameters with economic ones: the amount of inter-company influence, barriers to implementation and breakthrough of innovation. The authors adduce the discussion of the limitations and applicability of this model as well as further potential directions of study of economophysical models. The tools developed by the authors can be used in all sectors of economics to improve their innovation activity level.
... Teori difusi inovasi memainkan peran penting dalam menentukan penetrasi inovasi atau produk di masa depan dengan memahami karakteristiknya (Kumar, 2015). Penelitian difusi model pendidikan nilai yang dilakukan oleh Hajaroh dan Rukiyati (2019) bertujuan mendifusikan inovasi dalam pendidikan kepada pengguna yakni guru. ...
Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengungkap hasil difusi model dan mengukur kriteria model sebagai inovasi. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian difusi, model perumusan kebijakan sekolah ramah anak di tingkat satuan pendidikan. Penelitian ini menggunakan mixed qualitrative-quantitative method. Partisipan penelitian ini 10 Sekolah Dasar, total 53 orang.Data dikumpulkan melalui wawancara, kuisioner, dokumen, dan diskusi terfokus. Teknik analisis data statistic deskriptif dan analisis kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model perumusan kebijakan sekolah ramah anak memenuhi kriteria bagus sebagai inonasi karena sesuai dengan lima kriteria inovasi yakni keunggulan relatif (relative advantage), kompatibilitas (compatibility),kerumitan (complexity), kemampuan diujicobakan (trialability), dan kemampuan diamati (observability). Hasil difusi juga menunjukkan bahwa sekolah mengadopsi model analisis perumusan kebijakan pendidikan sebagai inovasi. Model ini efektif untuk diterapkan di sekolah untuk menginterpretasi kebijakan dari tingkat makro dan meso ke dalam kebijakan mikro (satuan Pendidikan). Keefektifan tercapai karena adanya kolaborasi yang sinergis antara Tri Pusat Pendidikan (sekolah, masyarakat, dan keluarga) pada tahap intepretasi kebijakan dan program, serta pada tahap pengorganisian dan aplikasi kebijakan sekolah ramah anak. Kata kunci: kebijakan, difusi inovasi, sekolah ramah anak, satuan pendidikan THE DIFFUSION OF CHILD-FRIENDLY SCHOOL POLICY FORMULATION MODELS AT THE EDUCATION UNIT LEVEL Abstract This study aimed to reveal the results of the diff usion models and measure the criteria of the models as an innovation. This study is diff usion research, a model for formulating child-friendly school policies at the education unit level. This study used a mixed qualitative-quantitative method. The participants of this study were 10 elementary schools, a total of 53 people. The data were collected through interviews, questionnaires, documents, and focused discussions. The data analysis techniques were descriptive statistics and qualitative analysis. The results show that the model for formulating child-friendly school policies met the good criteria as an innovation since it complied with fi ve innovation criteria, namely relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability. The results of the diff usion also show that schools adopt an analytical model of education policy as an innovation. This model is eff ective to be applied in schools to interpret policies from the macro and meso levels into micro policies (Education units). Eff ectiveness is achieved due to synergistic collaboration between the Three Education Centers (schools, communities, and families) at the policy and program interpretation stage, as well as at the stage of organizing and applying child-friendly school policies.
... For this opportunity assessment, it is assumed that adoption of any changes to current operations (e.g., adoption of a renewable technology to replace existing systems) will follow a simplified innovation diffusion model based on logistic growth in change uptake [212,213]. An example of the uptake rates predicted by such a model, as well as the underlying rational behind the use of the model, is shown in Figure 59. ...
... Once the remaining market share is composed primarily of a more hesitant/risk-averse population (late majority and laggards), uptake rates decelerate, eventually assymptoting towards the upper limit of market share for the technology in question. While there have been many modifications and variations of this concept, applying different functions to better predict different behaviours, the basic logistic model has been shown to be adequate for modelling growth/diffusion in a wide array of fields [212]. In the logistic growth model, the market penetration of technologies (i.e. ...
Report is accessible on https://www.racefor2030.com.au/publications/
This report has been prepared by the authors at the request of the Reliable Affordable Clean Energy for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre (RACE for 2030 CRC). In Australia, industry consumes nearly half of the total end use energy, out of which, 37% is used in process heat, representing approximately 750 PJ/yr. The primary source of heat production is fossil fuels, accounting for 90% of all process heat energy consumption. Of all fossil fuels, natural gas is the most commonly used fuel, accounting for approximately 57% of all process heat requirements. The decarbonisation of these heat processes represents a significant challenge for Australian industry. This opportunity assessment reviews the current market status and technology options, identifies the market potential and relevant barriers, and provides a pathway to overcome this challenge. Ultimately, this study informs the future direction for research activities to support industry to achieve decarbonisation reliably and affordably. This assessment for the Reliable Affordable Clean Energy for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre (RACE for 2030 CRC) is focused on processes which require process temperatures of up to 150 °C. This is irrespective of the current temperature of process heat which is initially generated in boilers or steam generators to drive the process.
Major sectors that require process heat in this temperature range include alumina, wood and paper in the manufacturing sector; meat, dairy and beverage from the food processing sector; and hospitality, aged care and hospitals, representing the buildings sector. Collectively these sectors, use 180 PJ/annum, 24% of all industry heating requirements in Australia. In each industry, process heat is delivered at different rates and temperatures but generally continuously and via steam. This includes processes such as digestion, evaporation, air drying, pasteurisation, sterilisation, spray drying, fat and blood processing, washing, hot water, heating and laundry cleaning. Overall, the state of the market highlights that a complex range of interconnected technology solutions will be required to achieve decarbonisation.
A technology review was conducted of various options identified by the technology readiness level metric. Technologies were also categorised by a hierarchy of renewable energy which when combined into a hybrid energy system can deliver 100% decarbonisation at lowest cost. This hierarchy identified that the lowest cost delivery of heat is directly from renewable energy and energy efficiency, followed by thermal energy storage with the remainder delivered through green fuels, representing the highest cost solution. It was identified that best practice energy efficiency deserves immediate attention which can provide instant benefits but also reduce the investment needed for technology solutions. Renewable energy solutions include solar PV with heat pump/MVR or electric boilers, solar thermal, biogas/biomass burning, together with thermal storage. Biogas upgrading to biomethane, green diesel and hydrogen are green fuel options, which combined with other technology solutions can deliver 100% decarbonised solutions at economically competitive levels. These technologies are continuously being advanced together with novel technologies such as electromagnetic-assisted heating solutions which can potentially dramatically reduce process heating needs.
An analysis of the potential of the highlighted technology solutions to displace fossil fuel was conducted for the manufacturing, food processing and buildings sectors. The analysis provides a qualitative and quantitative overview of the options and potential scale of reduction of carbon emissions within these sectors. System solutions were identified which could practically deliver a decarbonised solution. A techno-economic assessment of these options was conducted identifying qualitatively the pathway for decarbonisation. This process informed the technology uptake analysis based on a simplified logistic uptake model.
The barriers to achieving the potential of the accelerated modelling scenario are substantial and have been investigated and categorised as technical, non-technical, and regulatory and commercial. Technology integration issues and impacts on the grid, together with a lack of insufficient data of heating processes have been identified as technical barriers. Non-technical barriers include a lack of knowledge, skills, tools, training as well as cultural factors. There exists a lack of regulations, and a lack of understanding of how existing regulations will affect technology implementation. Finally, the costs and commercial constraints represent a major barrier. Each of the barrier groups are analysed followed by relevant recommendations and suggestions that can aid industry sectors to reduce or overcome these barriers or which form the basis of future research questions for the theme.
From this study recommended research activities are provided to overcome these barriers and deliver a clear pathway to impact. Proposed activities include system modelling to identify value propositions, technology demonstrations to de-risk solutions, awareness and engagement activities to provide confidence building measures, and investigation of policy instruments to enable accelerated technology uptake. These activities aim to deliver reduced energy costs of up to 600 million AUD per annum, 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 and improve energy reliability to industry.
... Teori difusi inovasi memainkan peran penting dalam menentukan penetrasi inovasi atau produk di masa depan dengan memahami karakteristiknya (Kumar, 2015). Penelitian difusi model pendidikan nilai yang dilakukan oleh Hajaroh dan Rukiyati (2019) bertujuan mendifusikan inovasi dalam pendidikan kepada pengguna yakni guru. ...
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengungkap hasil difusi model dan mengukur kriteria model sebagai inovasi. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian difusi, model perumusan kebijakan sekolah ramah anak di tingkat satuan pendidikan. Penelitian ini menggunakan mixed qualitrative-quantitative method. Partisipan penelitian ini 10 Sekolah Dasar, total 53 orang.Data dikumpulkan melalui wawancara, kuisioner, dokumen, dan diskusi terfokus. Teknik analisis data statistic deskriptif dan analisis kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model perumusan kebijakan sekolah ramah anak memenuhi kriteria bagus sebagai inonasi karena sesuai dengan lima kriteria inovasi yakni keunggulan relatif (relative advantage), kompatibilitas (compatibility),kerumitan (complexity), kemampuan diujicobakan (trialability), dan kemampuan diamati (observability). Hasil difusi juga menunjukkan bahwa sekolah mengadopsi model analisis perumusan kebijakan pendidikan sebagai inovasi. Model ini efektif untuk diterapkan di sekolah untuk menginterpretasi kebijakan dari tingkat makro dan meso ke dalam kebijakan mikro (satuan Pendidikan). Keefektifan tercapai karena adanya kolaborasi yang sinergis antara Tri Pusat Pendidikan (sekolah, masyarakat, dan keluarga) pada tahap intepretasi kebijakan dan program, serta pada tahap pengorganisian dan aplikasi kebijakan sekolah ramah anak.THE DIFFUSION OF CHILD-FRIENDLY SCHOOL POLICY FORMULATION MODELS AT THE EDUCATION UNIT LEVELThis study aimed to reveal the results of the diffusion models and measure the criteria of the models as an innovation. This study is diffusion research, a model for formulating child-friendly school policies at the education unit level. This study used a mixed qualitative-quantitative method. The participants of this study were 10 elementary schools, a total of 53 people. The data were collected through interviews, questionnaires, documents, and focused discussions. The data analysis techniques were descriptive statistics and qualitative analysis. The results show that the model for formulating child-friendly school policies met the good criteria as an innovation since it complied with five innovation criteria, namely relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability. The results of the diffusion also show that schools adopt an analytical model of education policy as an innovation. This model is effective to be applied in schools to interpret policies from the macro and meso levels into micro policies (Education units). Effectiveness is achieved due to synergistic collaboration between the Three Education Centers (schools, communities, and families) at the policy and program interpretation stage, as well as at the stage of organizing and applying child-friendly school policies.
This article assesses the relationship between the level of innovation and the process of spreading generations of an industrial product among the consumers on the example of generations of a stationary game console from Sony. This work follows the scientific direction of modeling and forecasting the spread of innovations; it contains the results of the analysis of the dynamics in the change of successive generations of an industrial product. The relevance of the research topic lies in the increased competition between companies engaged in innovative activities. This results in the need to determine the reasonable directions of technical, technological, and market development of the developed innovations in the form of new and improved products. This study uses the mathematical model by F. Bass, supplemented by the provisions of T. Islam and N. Meade on the variability of consumer behavior of different generations. The conducted review of research literature has revealed an insufficient elaboration of the issue of a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the relationship between the rate of spread of generations and the changes made to them. The authors draw hypotheses about the independence of the market potentials of successive generations from each other and the dependence of the level of innovativeness of the next generation of industrial products on technological, consumer and marketing changes. As a set of changes, this article proposes parameters of the purchase price and the cost of operating each generation. The authors have tested the hypothesis on statistical data of generational sales for 1994-2019 using correlation analysis. The results have shown the absence of the influence of the market potentials of successive generations from each other, as well as the presence of a connection and its strength between the level of innovativeness of the next generation and the changes made in the generations. The data obtained can be used for further mathematical formalization of the influence of the level of innovativeness of generations on the process of their distribution.
