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This paper presents the design and use of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) in regional integrated assessment of climate impacts. In the first part of the paper, we describe the role of pathways and scenarios in regional integrated assessment as well as the three RAPs developed for a study of dryland wheat-based systems in the U.S. Pacifi...
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Context 1
... the lowest rainfall areas (average 310 mm), the WWF system is used with winter wheat grown every other year with fallow used to restore soil moisture. Table 4 summarizes the socio-economic characteristics of small (below the median cropped acres) and large (above the median cropped acres) farms within each dryland system using 2007 Census of Agriculture data. The census data were used in the analysis because they provide detailed information about virtually every farm in the region, and thus provide the best available data to characterize the farm population in terms of yields and economic variables that are the foundation of the economic modeling approach described below. ...
Context 2
... results are impacts of climate change using the current cropping systems without adaptations such as changes in crop varieties, fertilizer application rates, or types of crops. The economic model TOA-MD utilizes the simulated relative yields, together with the agricultural census data in Table 4 to define current economic conditions, and the RAPs data to define future economic conditions, to simulate economic impacts of climate change. Each scenario represents the combined effects of a particular global climate model output to project future prices, and a socio-economic scenario which includes projected changes in production costs, changes in policy (i.e., crop and conservation subsidies) and other parameters in the TOA-MD model. ...
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... Construction of agricultural development scenarios have been an integral part of future-oriented assessments for many years (IAASTD 2009). Also more recent agricultural development scenarios (e.g., Antle et al. 2017) go back to four archetype scenarios: Global orchestration; Fortress; TechnoGarden; AdaptiveMosaic (Du-Lattre- Gasquet et al. 2009). Here, we only consider the two archetype scenarios "TechnoGarden" and "Adaptive Mosaic" since both aim at environment-friendly sustainable management practices, although with slightly different foci (Fig. 20.16). ...
This chapter aims at providing an overview of the diversity of agroecological conditions, features of main farming systems, agricultural land use, its dynamics and drivers during the last two decades as well as major threats in ten countries of southern Africa (SA10). Based on this, we attempt to identify the resultant challenges for sustainable land management and outline potential interventions with a focus on smallholder farmers. By analyzing cropland dynamics during 2000–2019, we show how land use has been shaped by climate, demographic development, economic imperatives and policy realities. Concrete examples of these complex interactions illustrate both considerable shrinkage in South Africa and Zimbabwe or expansion of cropland in Mozambique and Zambia. During the past 20 years, cropland increased by 37% on average across SA10 mainly at the expense of forestland—showing huge spatiotemporal heterogeneity among countries. Most smallholders face shrinking farm size and other resource limitations that have resulted in soil nutrient mining and low agricultural productivity—a highly unsustainable situation. We conclude with an outlook on potential transformation pathways (“TechnoGarden” and “AdaptiveMosaic”) for the near future and thereby provide a frame for further studies on sustainable land management options under given local settings.
... The available data sets were analyzed using the tradeoff analysis multidimensional impact assessment model (TOA-MD), which is a unique simulation tool that can utilize the socioeconomic data sets already collected, combine them with macroeconomic data sets of farms, and project the current and future viability of specific policy interventions proposed in research studies [22,23]. Due to its efficacy in data use, it is also known as the minimum data approach, as it utilizes secondary data sets for generalizations. ...
... Due to its efficacy in data use, it is also known as the minimum data approach, as it utilizes secondary data sets for generalizations. The Sahiwal division map is shown in Figure 2. The available data sets were analyzed using the tradeoff analysis multidimensional impact assessment model (TOA-MD), which is a unique simulation tool that can utilize the socioeconomic data sets already collected, combine them with macroeconomic data sets of farms, and project the current and future viability of specific policy interventions proposed in research studies [22,23]. Due to its efficacy in data use, it is also known as the minimum data approach, as it utilizes secondary data sets for generalizations. ...
... This study utilized sustainable development pathways and moderate development. The available data sets were analyzed using the tradeoff analysis multidimensional impact assessment model (TOA-MD), which is a unique simulation tool that can utilize the socioeconomic data sets already collected, combine them with macroeconomic data sets of farms, and project the current and future viability of specific policy interventions proposed in research studies [22,23]. Due to its efficacy in data use, it is also known as the minimum data approach, as it utilizes secondary data sets for generalizations. ...
Water is the most important resource; it is utilized largely in agricultural production and is fundamental to ensuring global food security. This study aims to assess sustainable water management interventions and their impact on the farm economy. To increase water productivity, the most important adaptations that have been proposed are high-efficiency irrigation systems, drought-resistant varieties, the substitution of water-intensive crops with less water-demanding crops, the mulching of soil, zero tillage, and all on-farm operations that can save water, especially ground water. The recent analysis utilized farm survey data from 469 representative farmers along with secondary statistics. The data were collected via a multi-stage sampling technique to ensure the availability of representative farm populations based on a comprehensive site selection criterion. The TOA-MD model estimates the adoption rate of a proposed adaptation based on net farm returns. The impact of high-efficiency irrigation systems and the substitution of high delta crops for low delta crops had a positive impact on net farm returns and per capita income, and a negative impact on farm poverty in the study area. It is recommended that policymakers consult farmer representatives about agricultural and water-related issues so that all the policies can be implemented properly.
... Using different suitable molecular markers, that is, RFLP, RAPD, AFLP, and SNPs, enabled plant breeders to screen genotypes based on the presence of desirable characters, so that they can be used in plant breeding programmes for introgression of genes and development of stresstolerant cultivars. and can be used to represent the future agriculture system (Antle et al. 2017;Riahi et al. 2017). The RAPs are the future biophysical and socioeconomics pathways which are useful to develop the adaptation strategies under changing climate. ...
... Using different suitable molecular markers, that is, RFLP, RAPD, AFLP, and SNPs, enabled plant breeders to screen genotypes based on the presence of desirable characters, so that they can be used in plant breeding programmes for introgression of genes and development of stresstolerant cultivars. and can be used to represent the future agriculture system (Antle et al. 2017;Riahi et al. 2017). The RAPs are the future biophysical and socioeconomics pathways which are useful to develop the adaptation strategies under changing climate. ...
... However, the current production system will change in future due to shortage of water, soil degradation, urbanization, and the economic development (Kriegler et al. 2012). Thus, the Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are developed, which are the socioeconomic scenarios 203 C o p y r i g h t T a y l o r & F r a n c i s L L C / F o r P e r s o n a l U s e O n l y and can be used to represent the future agriculture system (Antle et al. 2017;Riahi et al. 2017). The RAPs are the future biophysical and socioeconomics pathways which are useful to develop the adaptation strategies under changing climate. ...
... While the stakeholders were explicitly asked for socioeconomic, environmental and technological drivers of European agriculture and food systems until 2050 and the ranges of change for the drivers, the core group's task was to combine the storyline elements and determine the directions of change for each element and Eur-Agri-SSP. Similar to many previous scenario exercises (Abildtrup et al., 2006;Absar and Preston, 2015;Antle et al., 2017;Busch, 2006;Palazzo et al., 2017;Reimann et al., 2018;Valdivia et al., 2015;Vervoort et al., 2014), we differentiate increasing, decreasing and stable developments, compared to the initial conditions in the starting year. This implies that directions of change for individual storyline elements can be the same for two or more storylines even if the underlying development patterns differ. ...
Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios - the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.
... The RAPs that were developed were finally refined by the crop modelers in the fourth meeting. The methodology for development of the RAPs followed the procedures set out by Antle et al. (2017). The RAPs that were quantified and finalized were increase in soil degradation, decrease in groundwater, and balanced use of fertilizers. ...
... This aspect is beyond the scope of this chapter. The reader may consult Valdivia et al. (2015) and Antle et al. (2017a) for applications of scenario methods in agricultural systems modelling used to address this part of ex ante assessment. Here, I focus on the development of what I will call hybrid structural models that are capable of projecting new agricultural systems into novel environments. ...
... The objective of this study is to evaluate the difference in agricultural land uses if RAPs are considered in the assessment of climate change adaptation. To do this, three bottom-up projections of RAPs are used, which were developed by Antle et al. (2017) for the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the USA. In this study, the use of regional RAPs in the context of climate change adaptation and agricultural land uses is original because these RAPs are newly developed with collaboration of an interdisciplinary team who focus on regional studies and are specific for the PNW region of the USA. ...
... Three RAPs that were developed by Antle et al. (2017) to the middle of the century are used to capture future biophysical and socioeconomic trends. These three RAPs are described below: ...
This paper investigates climate change adaptation through agricultural land uses under three regional representative agricultural pathways, using data from the Pacific Northwest of the United States of America. The three pathways are bottom-up projections of local biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, and they are consistent to downscaled regional climate scenarios. Results show that changes in agricultural land uses under future climate change and representative agricultural pathways are substantially different, compared with results not considering representative agricultural pathways. This finding suggests that climate change impacts and adaptation may be underestimated or overestimated if future biophysical and socioeconomic developments are not incorporated, particularly in regional agricultural assessments of climate change adaptation. One implication from this analysis for global adaptation strategies is the need for future infrastructure supports to maintain a climate-resilient agricultural production system due to changes in agricultural land uses.
... This study utilizes the trans-disciplinary methods for regional integrated assessment of agricultural systems, developed recently by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), to evaluate changes in dryland wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) farming systems in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) that could contribute to achieving a 1.5°C world (Antle et al. 2015(Antle et al. , 2017a. These changes include the incorporation of a biofuel crop, camelina (Camelina sativa L.), into the wheat-fallow crop rotation typical of dryland farming systems in the PNW and in other major wheat-producing regions of the world, and changes in tillage practices that could increase and maintain higher levels of soil C. ...
... The possible combinations of these three prices give eight scenarios, ranging from all low to all high prices. For all these scenarios, it was assumed that CO 2 fertilization increases wheat yields 20% above their observed values in the baseline (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) period, and that costs of production are 20% higher than those of base line, following prior analysis of probably increases in costs of production associated with yield and output price increases (Antle et al. 2017a). ...
... AgMIP has developed systematic methods for creating these future scenarios in collaboration with the research team and stakeholders (Valdivia et al. 2015). These methods were utilized to develop three future Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) for analysis of climate impact and adaptation in this region for the mid-century period, described in detail in Antle et al. (2017a). In this study, our focus is the near-term (2020-2030) so we assume socio-economic conditions are similar to the based period (2000-2010) except for mitigation policies and associated prices. ...
In 2015, the United Nations challenged the scientific community to evaluate development pathways consistent with the goal of limiting global average temperature increase to 1.5 °C. This study reports analysis that was carried out as part of a project responding to that challenge. Using recently developed methods for regional integrated assessment of agricultural systems, this study evaluates the economic and environmental performance of dryland farming systems in the United States of America (U.S). Pacific Northwest, a major wheat (Triticum aestivum) production region, under greenhouse gas mitigation and policy scenarios consistent with the 1.5 °C goal. A novel feature of this study is to combine bio-physical and economic models with site-specific life cycle analysis to evaluate both the economic performance of current and possible alternative farming systems. The analysis shows that these farming systems could be adapted through changes in management to reduce soil emissions of greenhouse gases and incorporation of new biofuel crops, and could be affected by changes in prices and costs of production associated with greenhouse gas mitigation policies. These changes could result in a win-win outcome for those farms in the Pacific Northwest region where site-specific conditions are suited to these adaptations, providing both higher farm incomes and contributing to greenhouse gas emissions reductions. A key implication for mitigation and adaptation strategies is the need to coordinate climate policy design and development of technologies needed to achieve policy goals.
