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Study area map. Indicated are historical and current jaguar range (see Materials and Methods for definitions and sources for both) and the distribution of density study sites and presence/absence records used for modelling range-wide jaguar density and occurrence.
Source publication
Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping , presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satell...
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Understanding large carnivore occurrence patterns in anthropogenic landscapes adjacent to protected areas is central to developing actions for species conservation in an increasingly human-dominated world. Among large carnivores, leopards (Panthera pardus) are the most widely distributed felid. Leopards occupying anthropogenic landscapes frequently...
Citations
... According to Jędrzejewski et al. (2018), there are approximately 173,000 wild jaguars, although other authors, using different methodologies, provide lower estimates close to 64,000 individuals (De La Torre et al. 2018). The main threats faced by jaguars are anthropogenic, including extensive agriculture, mining, cattle ranching, retaliation hunting, and natural prey population decrease (Payán ). ...
The jaguar (Panthera onca) tourism (JT) has expanded across Latin America, but its impacts on sustainability dimensions remain unclear. This systematic review analyzed 88 studies on JT impacts published between 1989 and 2022. Database searches yielded 3,401 initial studies, refined to 88 relevant documents meeting review criteria. Results were compiled into impact tables categorizing 98 specific positive and negative environmental, economic, and sociocultural JT impacts. Key findings demonstrate that, while JT can bring conservation benefits, economic growth, and cultural appreciation of jaguars, negative impacts like habituation, culture commo-dification, and limited economic reach also occur. Environmental impacts accounted for 41.8% of documented effects, economic impacts 23.5%, and sociocultural impacts 34.7%. Half were positive and half negative. The review reveals the complex trade-offs involved in JT. A comprehensive sustainability approach is needed that minimizes harms and maximizes benefits across all dimensions. This requires policies and regulations to promote responsible practices, ongoing impact monitoring and research, and active local community participation. Our findings provide key insights to inform jaguar conservation and tourism management strategies in Latin America. ARTICLE HISTORY
... Population density is a commonly used demographic parameter for monitoring spatiotemporal trends of imperiled wildlife populations (Allison & McLuckie, 2018;Satter et al., 2019;Sollmann, Gardner, et al., 2013). Density is particularly useful for comparative evaluations because it reflects the effects of differing ecological, environmental, anthropogenic, and climatic conditions on populations of the same species (Jędrzejewski et al., 2018;Murphy et al., 2022). This is especially the case for imperiled large carnivores, many species of which have declined in number and distribution because of overexploitation and habitat fragmentation and loss (Di Minin et al., 2016;Ripple et al., 2014;Wolf & Ripple, 2017). ...
... We considered the following five spatial covariates in the inhomogeneous Poisson SCR models as effects on the density parameter, based on the findings of previous range-wide jaguar density and spatial ecology studies (Devlin et al., 2023;Jędrzejewski et al., 2018;Thompson et al., 2021). A two-class categorical habitat covariate that represented natural versus unnatural habitats, which we created from 30-m resolution 2020 land cover raster data produced by the North American Land Change Monitoring System (CEC, 2023) by reclassifying forests, grasslands, and wetlands as natural, whereas agriculture, human development, and bare ground were reclassified as unnatural. ...
... Our findings demonstrate that a primary consequence of that approach can be that densities are underestimated by approximately 30%, which could drastically alter decisionmaking and result in ineffective conservation actions. Jaguar densities in Mexico have been produced from different analytical methods and are likely not directly comparable across approaches (Jędrzejewski et al., 2018;Murphy et al., 2022;Tobler & Powell, 2013). Most jaguar densities for Mexico were not directly estimated but were instead derived from abundances estimated with nonspatial capture-recapture (NCR) models and ranged widely from 0.16 to 7.40 jaguars/100 km 2 (Amador-Alcal a et Charre-Medellín et al., 2023). ...
Accurate estimation of population parameters for imperiled wildlife is crucial for effective conservation decision‐making. Population density is commonly used for monitoring imperiled species across space and time, and spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models can produce unbiased density estimates. However, many imperiled species are restricted to fragmented remnant habitats in landscapes severely modified by humans, which can alter animal space use in ways that violate typical SCR model assumptions, possibly cryptically biasing density estimates and misinforming conservation actions. Using data from a two‐year camera‐trapping survey in the Central Pacific Coast region, Mexico, we demonstrate the potential importance to endangered jaguar (Panthera onca) conservation of considering non‐circular home ranges when estimating population density with SCR. Strong evidence existed that jaguars had elliptical home ranges wherein movements primarily occurred along linearly arranged coastal habitats that the camera array aligned with. Accounting for this movement with the SCR anisotropic detection function transformation, density estimates were 30%–32% higher than estimates from standard SCR models that assumed circular home ranges. Given much of suitable jaguar habitat in Mexico is fragmented and linearly oriented along coastlines and mountain ranges, accommodating irregular space use in SCR may be critical for obtaining reliable density estimates to inform effective jaguar conservation.
... In similar fashion, if P. onca continues to expand its range in Arizona, or if individuals from Mexico continue to disperse northward, we may well see migration of P. onca into California. Additionally, using a spatial prediction model, Jędrzejewski et al. (2018) have suggested a potential viable range that includes portions of Imperial, Orange, Riverside, and San Diego Counties, as well as the Colorado River Delta in Mexico, and reported a probability of future occurrence of up to 75%. Torres (2021) agreed with this potential range but extended it farther eastward into San Diego County and northward through Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. ...
... Although predictive models by Jędrzejewski et al. (2018) and Torres (2021) suggest the possibility of natural recolonization, artificial reintroductions of P. onca should not be considered without extensive public input, habitat evaluation, a well-considered management plan, and proactive elevation of the species to endangered status under the California Endangered Species Act (Baker et al. 2017;Maehr et al. 2001;Clark et al. 2005;Sanderson et al. 2021). Reintroductions prompted by public opinion alone are not advisable. ...
... Warshall (2013) suggested that female P. onca migration into Arizona might take 60 to 85 yr, which would push the species' natural establishment in California well into the future--at which time human settlement will presumably have grown significantly. Nevertheless, as mentioned above, a relatively high probability of recolonization of P. onca in California does exist (Jędrzejewski et al. 2018;Torres 2021), and State resource agencies should consider the species as potentially occurring naturally at some time in the distant future. Should this come to pass, or if human reintroduction of P. onca into California moves ahead after careful consideration of the risks and benefits discussed above, the species will logically warrant emergency listing as endangered, to accord colonizing individuals the greatest chance for survival (Quigley et al. 2017). ...
... Spanning this broad range, jaguars occupied a variety of habitats, fostering populations to develop different adaptations including plasticity in habitat selection and prey consumption, according to the features available in each environment (Morato et al. 2018). Currently, the Amazon basin maintains the largest and most important Jaguar population (Jędrzejewski et al. 2018). Jaguars inhabiting the white-water floodplains (hereafter varzeas) of Mamirauá Reserve in Central Amazonia live an arboreal and semiaquatic lifestyle during the 4 months of the highwater season (Ramalho et al. 2021). ...
... Furthermore, we raise new questions that, once answered, might help us to guarantee the species protection and conservation in such threatening times. The Amazonia is currently one of the last strongholds for jaguars, harboring the larger species population (Jędrzejewski et al. 2018)-however, the species is already suffering from high rates of human pressure in the region (Torre et al. 2018;Menezes et al. 2021;Jedrzejewski et al. 2024). Although high levels of deforestation and fires the Amazonia has been facing (Cardil et al. 2020) might not directly affect the Mamirauá Reserve, their indirect and long-term effects are surely a problem. ...
Movement is an integral part of animal foraging and survival. Thus, conditions that hamper animal movement should cause significant shifts in their ecology, especially in traits directly related to movement such as home range, displacement, and site fidelity. Using jaguars (Panthera onca) as our model species, we measured the effect of reduced mobility in a unique natural experiment. The Amazonian varzeas of the Mamirauá Reserve have such a prevalent and intense flooding that jaguars in the region adopt a semiaquatic and arboreal lifestyle during the wet season. We hypothesized that Jaguar space use would change substantially between seasons with decreasing home ranges, core areas, and displacements during the high-water periods. Given previously documented sex-based differences in Jaguar space use and movement we also evaluated sex-based differences in movement parameters in our study system. We measured seasonal home ranges and core areas using autocorrelated kernel density estimation, with the 95% contour for home ranges and 50% for core areas. Displacement was calculated as the velocity of movement in meters per second in each given step comprised of locations every 6 h. Our results indicated that home range area remained constant between seasons, but displacement decreased during high-water periods as expected. We discuss the possibility that jaguars switch to an ambushing form of predation, which is made possible by the large number of prey in the region. This ambushing tactic would allow jaguars to retain a large home range despite low mobility and larger movement costs.
... E l á rea de distribución del jaguar se ex tiende desde el sur de Estados Unidos (Arizona y Nuevo México), pasando por México, América Central y América del Sur, hasta el sur de Argentina (Río N egro) (de la Torre et al., 2018;Jędrzejewski et al., 2018;Quigley et al., 2017). A medida que sus hábitats se reducen, los desplazamientos necesarios para satisfacer sus requisitos metabólicos y reproductivos los exponen aún más a las amenazas humanas (de la Torre et al., 2018;Jędrzejewski et al., 2018;Thompson et al., 2021). ...
... E l á rea de distribución del jaguar se ex tiende desde el sur de Estados Unidos (Arizona y Nuevo México), pasando por México, América Central y América del Sur, hasta el sur de Argentina (Río N egro) (de la Torre et al., 2018;Jędrzejewski et al., 2018;Quigley et al., 2017). A medida que sus hábitats se reducen, los desplazamientos necesarios para satisfacer sus requisitos metabólicos y reproductivos los exponen aún más a las amenazas humanas (de la Torre et al., 2018;Jędrzejewski et al., 2018;Thompson et al., 2021). La población total de jaguar se estima en 173,000 individuos (intervalo de confianza del 95%: 138,148-208,137) (Jędrzejewski et al., 2018), de los cuales alrededor del 75% habita en el bioma amazónico (derivado de Jędrzejewski et al., 2018). ...
... A medida que sus hábitats se reducen, los desplazamientos necesarios para satisfacer sus requisitos metabólicos y reproductivos los exponen aún más a las amenazas humanas (de la Torre et al., 2018;Jędrzejewski et al., 2018;Thompson et al., 2021). La población total de jaguar se estima en 173,000 individuos (intervalo de confianza del 95%: 138,148-208,137) (Jędrzejewski et al., 2018), de los cuales alrededor del 75% habita en el bioma amazónico (derivado de Jędrzejewski et al., 2018). Actualmente, menos del 50% del rango de distribución se encuentra dentro de Áreas Protegidas (Jędrzejewski et al., 2018). ...
Este informe se centra en los 15 Paisajes Prioritarios para el Jaguar de WWF y ofrece una evaluación actualizada de las principales tendencias económicas y de protección del medio ambiente, así como una estimación del valor económico de los servicios ecosistémicos. Además, se incluyen estudios de caso realizados en cinco de estos paisajes, centrados en las percepciones de las partes interesadas locales sobre los servicios ecosistémicos.
... However, more information is needed specifically for this taxon in the Amazon region. Some recent studies, including population density estimates (Jędrzejewski et al., 2018), investigations of jaguar movement patterns , and the relationship between the occurrence of this species and environmental and anthropogenic variables on a Pan-Amazon scale (Bogoni et al., 2023), reveal little or no records of information about Panthera onca specifically for the Brazilian Amazon. ...
... On a South American scale, the distribution of big cats has been associated with environmental and anthropogenic factors (Bogoni et al., 2023;Jędrzejewski et al., 2018;. Therefore, based on the ecological demands of these species (Palmeira, 2015;Soisalo & Cavalcanti, 2006), we selected some environmental and anthropogenic variables that may affect the occurrence and distribution of jaguars and pumas in the Amazon. ...
... These environmental variables indicate the natural characteristics of the habitats that can influence the occurrence of Pumas and Jaguars based on their evolutionary characteristics and ecological demands. Meanwhile, anthropogenic variables indicate how current modifications in natural habitats can influence the occurrence and distribution of these species (Bogoni et al., 2023;Dickman et al., 2015;Jędrzejewski et al., 2018;Vickers et al., 2015). Among the anthropogenic variables, we selected: percentage of degraded forest (% DF), percentage of open areas (% OA) (nonforested areas), percentage of agribusiness (% AG) (agriculture and livestock), percentage of the urban area (% UA) and distance to the nearest transport network (DR) (main roads or railways). ...
We evaluated the most relevant natural and anthropogenic factors for the occurrence and co‐occurrence of jaguars ( Panthera onca ) and pumas ( Puma concolor ) in the eastern Amazon, the most degraded portion of this tropical rainforest in Brazil. We found that in a context of high human pressure, a more significant amount of primary forest and more significant annual rainfall most positively influence the occurrence of jaguars. In contrast, pumas are negatively influenced by proximity to roads and positively by slope. Additionally, the presence of primary forest areas and high annual rainfall also favour the co‐occurrence of jaguars and pumas in the same areas. In contrast, open areas more related to anthropogenic zones disfavour the co‐occurrence of these two species in this degraded portion of the Amazon. Our results support landscape management for conserving big cat species in the Amazon and reinforce the importance of forest conservation for maintaining big cats in altered landscapes. Although these animals occur in open habitats, in the Amazon, these species are dependent on primary forests, as they are better‐structured habitats that maintain the capacity to support prey and shelter.
... This issue is particularly evident in Brazil, where livestock policies have led to a 4-fold increase since 1960 of bovine livestock production (FAO, 2021), whereas jaguars have been extirpated from the largest portion of their historical distribution (Quigley et al., 2016). Initially driven by obvious macroeconomic objectives and later seeking poverty reduction (Guanziroli, 2014), these policies have made Brazil the country with the world's largest cattle herd (FAO, 2021), yet it still harbors half of the world's jaguar populations (Jȩdrzejewski et al., 2018). Consequently, Brazilian livestock policies may serve as the primary shield for jaguars as an iconic species and for the Neotropical predator community and, consequently, for entire Neotropical ecosystems. ...
Anthropogenic activities may alter felid assemblage structure, facilitating the persistence of tolerant species (commonly mesopredators), excluding ecologically demanding ones (top predators) and, consequently, changing coexistence rules. We aimed to determine how human activities influence intraguild relationships among top predators and their cascading effects on mesopredators, which remain poorly understood despite evidence of top carnivore decline. We used structural equation modeling at a continental scale to investigate how habitat quality and quantity, livestock density, and other human pressures modified the intraguild relations of the 3 species that are at the top of the food chain in the Neotropics: jaguars (Panthera onca), pumas (Puma concolor), and ocelots (Leopardus pardalis). We included presence–absence data derived from systematic studies compiled in Neocarnivores data set for these felid species at 0.0833° resolution. Human disturbance reduced the probability of jaguar occurrence by −0.35 standard deviations. Unexpectedly, the presence of sheep (Ovis aries) or goats (Capra aegagrus hircus) and jaguars was positively related to the presence of pumas, whereas puma presence was negatively related to the presence of ocelots. Extent of forest cover had more of an effect on jaguar (β = 0.23) and ocelot (β = 0.12) occurrences than the extent of protected area, which did not have a significant effect. The lack of effect of human activities on puma presence and the positive effect of small livestock supports the notion that pumas are more adaptable to habitat disturbance than jaguars. Our findings suggest that human disturbance has the potential to reverse the hierarchical competition dominance among large felids, leading to an unbalanced community structure. This shift disadvantages jaguars and elevates the position of pumas in the assemblage hierarchy, resulting in the exclusion of ocelots, despite their relatively lower susceptibility to anthropogenic disturbance. Our results suggest that conservation efforts should extend beyond protected areas to encompass the surrounding landscape, where complexities and potential conflicts are more pronounced.
... Such population size estimates may not be quantitative enough for conventional ecological and evolutionary analyses, but they may be sufficient to ascertain if a population is above or below Ne 500. Moreover, because these estimates are at the population level (i.e., individual populations that locals know well), they may be more robust than size estimates encompassing an entire species' range, which typically entail greater inherent uncertainty and assumptions (Jędrzejewski et al., 2018;Wilson et al., 2011). Additionally, incorporating local knowledge into the genetic indicators assessments may help strengthen community-based conservation efforts by highlighting the value of local action. ...
... Further advances could link existing biodiversity databases, species spatial predictions of density and distribution (Jędrzejewski et al., 2018) and earth observation data (Schuman et al., 2023), in a semiautomated process to further reduce the time needed for these assessments, depending on a country's existing capacities and infrastructure. Capacity-building needs will depend largely on what data are available within a country. ...
Under the recently adopted Kunming‐Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, 196 Parties committed to reporting the status of genetic diversity for all species. To facilitate reporting, three genetic diversity indicators were developed, two of which focus on processes contributing to genetic diversity conservation: maintaining genetically distinct populations and ensuring populations are large enough to maintain genetic diversity. The major advantage of these indicators is that they can be estimated with or without DNA‐based data. However, demonstrating their feasibility requires addressing the methodological challenges of using data gathered from diverse sources, across diverse taxonomic groups, and for countries of varying socio‐economic status and biodiversity levels. Here, we assess the genetic indicators for 919 taxa, representing 5271 populations across nine countries, including megadiverse countries and developing economies. Eighty‐three percent of the taxa assessed had data available to calculate at least one indicator. Our results show that although the majority of species maintain most populations, 58% of species have populations too small to maintain genetic diversity. Moreover, genetic indicator values suggest that IUCN Red List status and other initiatives fail to assess genetic status, highlighting the critical importance of genetic indicators.
... Jaguars play a critical role in ecosystem health and integrity as a top predator but are threatened by habitat loss and hunting (Palmeirim and Gibson, 2021;Thompson et al., 2021). PAs are an important strategy for conserving remaining jaguars since estimated jaguar densities are highest in remote landscapes with little human presence (Jędrzejewski et al., 2018). However, PAs with sparse human populations also create conditions of concealment favored by narco-traffickers. ...
... Previous work has found significantly higher probabilities of jaguar occurrence in PAs than in non-protected areas (Bogoni et al., 2023;Jędrzejewski et al., 2018), and habitat corridors play a key role in the range-wide conservation vision of the Jaguar 2030 Roadmap (United Nations Development Programme UNDP et al., 2018). Thus, we compared estimated jaguar populations inside and outside of established PAs (the strictest categories of Ia, Ib, and II) from the World Database on Protected Areas (UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2023) and jaguar corridors as defined by the Jaguar Corridor Initiative (Rabinowitz and Zeller, 2010) with areas of increased and decreased suitability for narcotrafficking. ...
... Thus, we compared estimated jaguar populations inside and outside of established PAs (the strictest categories of Ia, Ib, and II) from the World Database on Protected Areas (UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, 2023) and jaguar corridors as defined by the Jaguar Corridor Initiative (Rabinowitz and Zeller, 2010) with areas of increased and decreased suitability for narcotrafficking. Jaguar population densities were estimated by Jędrzejewski et al. (2018) through a combination of camera trapping, presence/ absence data, and globally available predictive variables. Based on the sum of reported country-level population estimates for our study countries, we applied the associated credibility interval proportionally to the spatially differentiated estimates reported here. ...
International conservation efforts and prohibitionary drug intersect in unexpected ways throughout the Meso-american Biological Corridor (MBC). US-led counterdrug interdiction of transnational cocaine trafficking, or 'narco-trafficking', is increasingly pushing narco-traffickers and their associated environmental destruction into protected areas (PAs) to establish new smuggling routes. These locations are also where the greatest densities of jaguars (Panthera onca), an iconic and declining species, are found in Central America. Intersecting two geo-spatial datasets estimating 1) jaguar densities and 2) changes in landscape suitability for drug trafficking following counterdrug interdiction pressure, we estimated that roughly 69 % of the estimated population of jaguars in the MBC were found in areas of increased suitability for narco-traffickers. Moreover, jaguar populations within PAs were 2.5 and 34 times more likely to be in increased narco-trafficking suitability areas than those in jaguar corridors or other area without conservation designations, respectively. These findings illustrate the full costs of continuing current counterdrug interdiction policies alongside conventional conservation strategies and suggest that community-based conservation governance may more effectively discourage narco-trafficking activities and enhance conservation outcomes.
... Camera-trapping effort in the Neotropics has increased since the turn of the twentyfirst century, most notably for monitoring jaguars (Panthera onca, e.g. Foster et al., 2020;Harmsen et al., 2017;Jȩdrzejewski et al., 2018;Silver et al., 2004) but also for keeping track of the forest mammal community in general (i.e. TEAM network, Ahumada et al., 2011). ...
... By-catch data, Camera trap, Felids, Neotropics, Occupancy modelling, Species distribution region-wide assessments of jaguars within a single analytical framework (e.g. Jȩdrzejewski et al., 2018;Paviolo et al., 2016). Although mostly deployed for jaguars, these multitude of camera studies have detected many species beyond the largest cat of the Americas. ...
Aim
Planning conservation action requires accurate estimates of abundance and distribution of the target species. For many mammals, particularly those inhabiting tropical forests, there are insufficient data to assess their conservation status. We present a framework for predicting species distribution using jaguarundi (Herpailurus yagouaroundi), a poorly known felid for which basic information on abundance and distribution is lacking.
Location
Mesoamerica and South America.
Time Period
From 2003 to 2021.
Taxa
Herpailurus yagouaroundi.
Methods
We combined camera‐trap data from multiple sites and used an occupancy modelling framework accounting for imperfect detection to identify habitat associations and predict the range‐wide distribution of jaguarundis.
Results
Our model predicted that the probability of jaguarundi occupancy is positively associated with rugged terrain, herbaceous cover, and human night‐time light intensity. Jaguarundi occupancy was predicted to be higher where precipitation was less seasonal, and at intermediate levels of diurnal temperature range. Our camera data also revealed additional detections of jaguarundis beyond the current International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) range distribution, including the Andean foothills of Colombia and Bolivia.
Main Conclusion
Occupancy was predicted to be low throughout much of Amazonian lowlands, a vast area at the centre of jaguarundi known range. Further work is required to investigate whether this area represents sub‐optimal conditions for the species. Overall, we estimate a crude global jaguarundi population of 35,000 to 230,000 individuals, covering 4,453,406 km² of Meso‐ and South America at the 0.5 probability level of occupancy. Our current framework allows for an initially detailed, well‐informed species distribution that should be challenged and refined with improved habitat layers and additional records of jaguarundi detection. We encourage similar studies of lesser‐known mammals, pooling existing by‐catch data from the growing bank of camera‐trap surveys around the world.
