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SSP-RCP scenario matrix illustrating ScenarioMIP simulations. Each cell in the matrix indicates a 1 combination of socioeconomic development pathway (SSP) and climate outcome based on a particular forcing 2 pathway that is feasible to produce in an IAM. Dark blue cells indicate scenarios that will serve as the basis for 3 climate model projections in Tier 1 of ScenarioMIP; light blue cells indicate scenarios in Tier 2. An overshoot 4 version of the 3.4 W/m 2 pathway is also part of Tier 2, as are long-term extensions of SSP5-8.5, SSP1-2.6 and the 5 overshoot scenario, and initial condition ensemble members of SSP3-7.0. White cells indicate scenarios for which 6 climate information is intended to come from the SSP scenario to be simulated for that row. CMIP5 RCPs, which 7 were developed from previous socioeconomic scenarios rather than SSPs, are shown for comparison. Note the 8 SSP1-2.0 scenario indicated here is preliminary (see text). 9  

SSP-RCP scenario matrix illustrating ScenarioMIP simulations. Each cell in the matrix indicates a 1 combination of socioeconomic development pathway (SSP) and climate outcome based on a particular forcing 2 pathway that is feasible to produce in an IAM. Dark blue cells indicate scenarios that will serve as the basis for 3 climate model projections in Tier 1 of ScenarioMIP; light blue cells indicate scenarios in Tier 2. An overshoot 4 version of the 3.4 W/m 2 pathway is also part of Tier 2, as are long-term extensions of SSP5-8.5, SSP1-2.6 and the 5 overshoot scenario, and initial condition ensemble members of SSP3-7.0. White cells indicate scenarios for which 6 climate information is intended to come from the SSP scenario to be simulated for that row. CMIP5 RCPs, which 7 were developed from previous socioeconomic scenarios rather than SSPs, are shown for comparison. Note the 8 SSP1-2.0 scenario indicated here is preliminary (see text). 9  

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Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP6) that that will provide mu...

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... choosing the SSP that we anticipate to be especially relevant, so that if the climate effects of land use and 1 aerosols turn out to be larger than anticipated, climate simulations will still be consistent with that scenario. 2 Table 2 lists all simulations being included in the ScenarioMIP experimental design, divided into two tiers by 5 priority, and the design is summarized visually within the context of the scenario matrix in Figure 2. Overall, the 6 design has the following general features: 7 These scenarios are arranged into two Tiers as follows: 20  Tier 1 spans a wide range of uncertainty in future forcing pathways important for research in climate 21 science, IAM, and IAV studies, while also providing key scenarios to anchor experiments in a number of 22 other MIPs (see last column in Table 1 pathways that fall between RCPs 2.6 and 4.5, and a scenario lower than the RCP 2.6 forcing pathway 29 intended to help inform policy discussion of a global average temperature limit below 1.5 °C warming 30 relative to pre-industrial levels. ...

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... RCPs depict plausible climate outcomes in aspects of emissions, concentrations and land cover/use (Van Vuuren et al., 2011), providing predicted radiative forcing by 2100 from less than 1.9 W/m − 2 to more than 8.5 W/m − 2 . The combined scenarios of SSPs and RCPs represent different levels of societal vulnerability and radiative forcing (Neill et al., 2016). ...
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Balancing biodiversity conservation and food security is the key to global sustainable development. However, we know little about the future global conflict risk hotspots between biodiversity and food security at both country and Biodiversity Hotspots (BHs) levels. First we calculated land use intensity index (LUII) based on future land use simulation, incorporated data on species richness(including birds, mammals and amphibians) and introduced the Global Food Security Index (GFSI). Then we used local indicators of spatial association (LISA) and bivariate choropleth map to identify the future global conflict risk hotspots between biodiversity conservation and food security. These include 10 countries (including Congo (Kinshasa), Sierra Leone, Malawi, Togo, Zambia, Angola, Guinea, Nigeria, Laos, Cambodia) and 7 BHs (Eastern Afromontane, Guinean Forests of West Africa, Horn of Africa, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany and Tropical Andes). Special attention needs to be paid to these hotspots to balance biodiversity conservation and food security. Data Availability Global LUCC is available at http://www.geosimulation.cn/Global-SSP-RCP-LUCC-Product.html, Species richness dataset is available at https://biodiversitymapping.org/, BH dataset is available at https://zenodo.org/record/3261807#.X_QoYDPAiAf, GFSI is available at https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/
... Zhuang and Zhang, 2020)。但是,目前的科学研究 很大程度上尚不能满足于"一带一路"区域应对气 候变化、防范与管理气候灾害风险和绿色低碳转型 的迫切需求。 前面开展的1.5°C/2°C温升目标下气候变化预 估 的 研 究 工 作 多 基 于 CMIP5模 式 试 验 数 据 ( Mitchell et al., 2016;Schleussner et al., 2016;Huang et al., 2017;徐 影 等 , 2017;King and Karoly, 2017;Tian et al., 2017;翟盘茂等, 2017 Neill et al., 2016;Stouffer et al., 2017; 张 丽 霞 等 , 2019; 周 天 军 等 , 2019; 姜 彤 等 , 2020)。上述文献多限于不同增暖温升目标下全球 或者东亚等区域未来气候变化预估及其影响,对" 一带一路"主要陆域未来气候变化的研究还涉及不 多。因此,本文聚焦在"一带一路"倡议的"六廊 六路多国多港"主体框架所在区域,采用CMIP6 的16个全球模式历史试验与SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和SSP5-8.5三种未来情景试验结果,集合预估了 ...
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Surface air temperature and precipitation changes over major land regions of the Belt and Road Initiative under the 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets are projected by the multi-model ensemble (MME) method based on the 16-member CMIP6. The MME mean simulations of 16-member CMIP6 can capture observed spatial structures in surface air temperature and precipitation for the period of 1995−2014. Relative to the pre-industrial levels (1850−1900), the global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will occur in the middle and late 2020s and around 2040, respectively, for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (SSP2-4.5), SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Under the 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets, the MME mean projections show that averaged over major land regions of the Belt and Road Initiative, annual average surface air temperature will increase significantly by 1.84°C and 2.43°C with a difference of 0.59°C; for the standard deviations between 16-CMIP6 models, they are 0.18°C and 0.21°C. Annual precipitation will increase significantly by 20.14 mm/a and 30.02 mm/a, with a difference of 9.88 mm/a; and the standard deviations between 16-CMIP6 models are 10.79 mm/a and 13.72 mm/a. Spatially, annual mean surface air temperature are projected to generally have significant increases over the whole study areas compared with the pre-industrial levels under the two global warming targets with the stronger warming magnitudes at high latitudes than at low latitudes. Future precipitation variations are projected to show clear spatial differences: Annual mean precipitation will decrease over the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions, yet increase over most of the remaining areas. The aridity represented by P-E index will reach the maximum in Europe, Southern China to Indochina Peninsula, South Asia, Eastern India, Southeast Asia and Central Africa.
... Currently, the "not"-camp prevails. gave no probabilistic interpretation when the SPA/SSP-framework was introduced, and the later accounts and applications followed suit (e.g., O'Neill et al., 2016;Riahi et al., 2017). The question is whether there is sufficient information for providing some sort of probabilistic weighting on scenarios (Ho et al., 2019;Hausfather and Peters, 2020). ...
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In the annual Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, CLICCS researchers make the first systematic attempt to assess which climate futures are plausible, by combining multidisciplinary assessments of plausibility. The inaugural 2021 Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook addresses the question: Is it plausible that the world will reach deep decarbonization by 2050?
... scenarios (Riahi et al., 2017;Gidden et al., 2019;Meinshausen et al., 2020). These scenarios were constructed as part of the CMIP6 set of coordinated experiments for ESMs , and arose out of the ScenarioMIP and SSP design effort (O'Neill et al., 2014(O'Neill et al., , 2016 to cover a wide range of socioeconomic and policy scenarios and resulting trajectories of greenhouse gas forcings to the Earth system. The simple extensions beyond 2100 were adapted from those originally conceived in O'Neill (2016), as described in Meinshausen et al., 90 (2020). ...
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Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of four ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth’s climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century, to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very high emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel driven scenario, as well as a second mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net-negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios, and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by climate-carbon feedbacks, in all models under the high emissions scenario, and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly generally follows the trajectories of cumulative carbon emissions, except that 23rd-century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models, both in the high emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree both in globally integrated and zonal-mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal-mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink-source transition, particularly in the high emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, point to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.
... 0 引 言  干旱是分布范围较广的一种自然灾害,通常会持续 数月至数年。区域气候异常(降水量减少和温度升高) 引发气象干旱,进而发展为农业干旱、水文干旱和社会 经济干旱,对人类社会生活、农业生产和生态系统等造 成严重损害 [1] 。例如,2010 年的西南春季大旱致使云南 和贵州省粮食减产 48%和 31% [2] ;2011 年长江中下游的 夏季干旱影响了 3 000 万人的正常生活,造成了超过百亿 的经济损失 [3][4] 。诸多研究表明 [5][6][7][8] ,气候变暖加剧了干旱 发生的频率和强度,且在未来几十年中,干旱发生强度 呈持续增加趋势。得出这一结论的依据为:通过干旱指 数或水文影响模型估算得到的未来蒸散发的增加趋势远 远大于降水量的增加趋势,因而造成水分供需失衡,加 剧干旱态势 [9] 。然而,也有研究者得出相反的结论 [10][11][12][13][14] 得出偏旱结论的主要原因。 在 干 旱 指 数 / 水 文 模 型 中 , 降 水 和 潜 在 蒸 散 发 (Potential Evapotranspiration,PET)是 2 个主要的输入变 量,分别代表大气水分供应和水分需求量,降水是气候 模型的直接输出变量,PET 则需要基于气象变量(温度 和 风 速 等 ) 利 用 模 型 估 算 。 在 干 旱 评 估 研 究 中 , Penman-Monteith(PM)公式是目前应用最广泛的 PET 估算模型。但是 PM 公式假设地表阻力(r s )为常数 (70 s/m),仅适合当前的气候状况,但是随着未来 CO 2 浓度的持续增加,r s 也随之增大。r s 与 CO 2 浓度的正相关 关系主要归因于: 1) 高浓度 CO 2 导致植被部分气孔关闭, 植被散发阻力增加,r s 增大;2)CO 2 浓度提高使得大气 压差增大,影响气孔开放 [15] 。因此 CO 2 浓度的增加会影 响 PET 的计算结果,进而影响依据 PET 计算干旱指数的 结果。基于此,Yang 等 [10][11] [21][22][23] [20,24- ...
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Drought has become a commonly natural hazard in nearly all regions of China, while, it has caused serious destructive effects on agriculture, ecological environment and residents. Climate change is ever increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts. Alternatively, the increase in CO2 concentration can alleviate the occurrence of droughts, and reduce the drought frequency and severity. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the occurrence of drought under different climate scenarios and the mitigation effect of increased CO2 concentration in the future. In this study, the meteorological data were downloaded from 5 GCMs’ simulations from the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6), and then to downscale using the bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD), finally to integrate the downscaled climatic data using Bayesian modelling averaging (BMA). A drought trend was analyzed considering and without considering the effect of CO2 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios using the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that the BMA average model improved the simulation accuracy, and stability of precipitation and temperature. The correlation coefficient with the measured precipitation was greater than 0.8, and that with temperature was greater than 0.98. Both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios showed a strong warming trend across China. By the end of the 21st century, the temperature increased by 2.7 and 6.2°C under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The precipitation also showed a significant increase across China. The annual precipitation in the SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 increased 150 and 50 mm/a, respectively. The increase of temperature resulted in a continuous increase in the potential evapotranspiration (PET), but the increasing trend of PET considering the influence of CO2 concentration (PET[CO2]) slowed down significantly. The higher the CO2 concentration, the more obvious the slowing trend. SPEI presented an obvious downward trend across China, where the downward trend in northwest China was the most significant, with a more severe trend under the SSP5-8.5 scenario than the SSP2-4.5 scenario. The drought area ratio in Northwest China also showed the strongest increasing trend, especially after 2070. By the end of the 21st century, the drought area ratio exceeded 80% under SSP5-8.5 scenario in the northwestern desert of China. The variation trends of the drought area in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, northeastern China, central China, and southern China are more consistent. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the drought area ratio showed an increasing trend, but under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the drought area ratio calculated by SPEI showed no obvious trend, while the drought area calculated by SPEI[CO2] showed a slight downward trend. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the drought area ratio of the whole mainland China showed an overall increasing trend, and the drought area ratio calculated by SPEI[CO2] under the SSP2-4.5 scenario showed a slow downward trend. In conclusion, under the same scenario, the drought index that does not consider the impact of CO2 overestimates the future occurrence of drought. More efforts may be needed to mitigate the consequent impact there under climate change. The results of this study emphasize the importance that vegetation control land hydrological process through the response to future CO2 concentration increase, and indicate that the influence of CO2 on drought trend should be considered in future drought investigation, thereby to offer systematic and scientific fundamentals for the management of water resource. The findings can provide a scientific basis for adaptation strategies to promote drought preparedness and the implementation of reliable warning systems, thereby to quickly mitigate potential impacts of future droughts all over China.
... More specifically, we compare four runs: the historical run from 1995 to 2014; the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-2.6 scenario (hereafter mentioned as SSP1-2.6); SSP2-4.5; and SSP5-8.5 runs in the near term (2021-2040), mid term (2041-2060), and long term (2081-2100) 16 . Our ultimate goal is to quantify changes in precipitation over individual monsoon domains so as to assess the future precipitation-related risk in each region. ...
... It seems that the characteristics of low emission SSP scenarios. The SSP1-2.6 scenario already reaches 2.6 Wm −2 in the near term and declines or persists within the 21st century 16 . ...
... The first number in the SSP label indicates the assumed shared socio-economic pathway, whereas the second number indicates the global effective radiative forcing by 2100. Further information on the SSP scenarios is available in O'Neill et al. 16 . Details of the used climate models are given in Table S1. ...
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Future change in summertime rainfall under a warmer climate will impact the lives of more than two-thirds of the world’s population. However, the future changes in the duration of the rainy season affected by regional characteristics are not yet entirely understood. We try to understand changes in the length of the rainy season as well as the amounts of the future summertime precipitation, and the related processes over regional monsoon domains using phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archive. Projections reveal extensions of the rainy season over the most of monsoon domains, except over the American monsoon. Enhancing the precipitation in the future climate has various increasing rates depending on the subregional monsoon, and it is mainly affected by changes in thermodynamic factors. This study promotes awareness for the risk of unforeseen future situations by showing regional changes in precipitation according to future scenarios.
... We used different RCP-SSP scenario combinations for the projection based on plausibility as explained by O'Neill et al [39]. The scenarios SSP1 (Sustainability), SSP2 (Middle of the Road) and SSP4 (Inequality) were combined with low to high (RCP 2.6-6.0) and not with the very high (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. ...
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Background. Recent studies on temperature-related mortality burden generally found higher cold-related deaths than heat-related deaths. In the future, it is anticipated that global warming will, on one hand result in larger heat-related mortality but on the other hand lead to less cold-related mortality. Thus, it remains unclear whether the net change in temperature-related mortality burden will increase in the future under climate change. Objectives. We aimed to quantify the impact of climate change on heat-, cold-, and the total temperature-related (net change) mortality burden taking into account the future demographic changes across five districts in Bavaria, Germany by the end of the 21st century. Methods . We applied location-specific age-specific exposure-response functions (ERFs) to project the net change in temperature-related mortality burden during the future period 2083–2099 as compared to the baseline period 1990–2006. The projections were under different combinations of five climate change scenarios (assuming a constant climate, Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) and six population projection scenarios (assuming a constant population, Shared Socio-economic Pathway [SSP] 1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5). Our projections were under the assumption of a constant vulnerability of the future population. We furthered compared the results with projections using location-specific overall all-age ERFs, i.e. not considering the age-effect and population aging. Results . The net temperature-related mortality for the total population was found to increase significantly under all scenarios of climate and population change with the highest total increments under SSP5-RCP8.5 by 19.61% (95% empirical CI (eCI): 11.78, 30.91). Under the same scenario for age ≥ 75, the increment was by 30.46% (95% eCI: 18.60, 47.74) and for age <75, the increment was by 0.28% (95% eCI: −2.84, 3.24). Considering the combination SSP2-RCP2.6, the middle-of-the road population and the lowest climate change scenario, the net temperature-related mortality for the total population was found to still increase by 9.33% (95% eCI: 5.94, 12.76). Contrastingly, the mortality projection without consideration of an age-effect and population aging under the same scenario resulted in a decrease of temperature-related deaths by −0.23% (95% eCI −0.64, 0.14), thus showing an underestimation of temperature-related mortality. Furthermore, the results of climate-only effect showed no considerable changes, whereas, the population-only effect showed a high, up to 17.35% (95% eCI: 11.46, 22.70), increment in the net temperature-related deaths. Conclusion . The elderly population (age ≥ 75), highly vulnerable to both heat and cold, is projected to be about four folds the younger population (age < 75) in the future. Thus, the combined effect of global warming and population aging results in an increase in both the heat- and the cold-related deaths. The population-effect dominates the climate-effect. Mitigation and age-specific adaptation strategies might greatly reduce the temperature-related mortality burden in the future.
... As we here focused on the strongest warming scenario RCP8.5 within the CMIP5 framework the considered period is certainly too short to get the full response to climate change of the Baltic Sea. In the framework of the ongoing phase of CMIP6 this fact is accounted for by including extension runs up to 2300 into the ScenarioMIP protocol (O'Neill et al. 2016). ...
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This model study investigates summer hydrographic changes in response to climate projections following the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario. We use the high resolution regional coupled ocean–sea ice–atmosphere model RCA4–NEMO to downscale an ensemble of five global climate projections with a main focus on the Baltic Sea and neighboring shelf basins to the west. We find consistently across the ensemble a northward shift in the mean summer position of the westerlies at the end of the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century. Associated with this is an anomalous precipitation pattern marked by increased rainfall over northern Europe and dryer conditions over the continental central part. In response to these large-scale atmospheric changes, a strong freshening mainly resulting from a higher net precipitation over the year combined with higher annual mean runoff is registered for the Baltic Sea and adjacent seas. The strongest freshening takes place in the southern Skagerrak region where stronger winds enhance the cyclonic circulation and by this, recirculation of fresher waters from the Baltic Sea strengthens. In the Baltic Sea freshening leads to a reduction in basin averaged salinities between 0.6 and 2.3 g kg⁻¹ throughout the ensemble. Likewise, the sea surface temperature response in the Baltic Sea varies between + 2.5 and + 4.7 K depending on the applied global model scenario. The climate induced changes in atmospheric forcing have further consequences for the large-scale circulation in the Baltic Sea. All ensemble members indicate a strengthening of the zonal, wind driven near surface overturning circulation in the southwestern Baltic Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century whereas the more thermohaline driven overturning at depth is reduced by ~ 25%. In the Baltic Proper, the meridional overturning shows no clear climate change signal. However, three out of five ensemble members indicate at least a northward expansion of the main overturning cell. In the Bothnian Sea, all ensemble members show a significant weakening of the meridional overturning. The entire ensemble consistently indicates a basin-wide intensification of the pycnocline (9–35%) for the Baltic Sea and a shallowing of the pycnocline depth in most regions as well. In the Baltic Sea, which is dominated by mesohaline conditions under the historical period, the changes in salinity at the end of the twenty-first century have turned wide areas to be dominated by oligohaline conditions as a result of climate change. Potential consequences for biogeochemical conditions and implications for biodiversity are discussed.
... Similar to the RCPs, the SSPs are supposed to be for use by the ESM, IAV, and IAM communities; however, the number of scenarios in the full scenario matrix is too large for use in ESMs. As a compromise, the ScenarioMIP (Scenario Model Intercomparison Project) of the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) created a protocol to select representative scenarios for use in CMIP6 exercises that allows them to cover sufficiently a rational and practical range of mitigation levels and socioeconomic development patterns 10 . Ultimately, the IAM community is expected to provide gridded emissions and land-use information for the aforementioned selected scenarios (this dataset is referred to as ScenarioMIP data hereafter). ...
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Information on global future gridded emissions and land-use scenarios is critical for many climate and global environmental modelling studies. Here, we generated such data using an integrated assessment model (IAM) and have made the data publicly available. Although the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) offers similar data, our dataset has two advantages. First, the data cover a full range and combinations of socioeconomic and climate mitigation levels, which are considered as a range of plausible futures in the climate research community. Second, we provide this dataset based on a single integrated assessment modelling framework that enables a focus on purely socioeconomic factors or climate mitigation levels, which is unavailable in CMIP6 data, since it incorporates the outcomes of each IAM scenario. We compared our data with existing gridded data to identify the characteristics of the dataset and found both agreements and disagreements. This dataset can contribute to global environmental modelling efforts, in particular for researchers who want to investigate socioeconomic and climate factors independently.
... The SSP framework combines societal storylines with physical radiative forcing pathways, following up on the initial work of the Representative Concentration Pathways ( RCPs) ( Moss et al 2010, Van Vuuren et al 2011). The SSP framework will also be the basis for the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) (O' Neill et al 2016) of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) ( Eyring et al 2016). Five SSPs have been designed to comprehensively capture varying levels of socioeconomic challenges to mitigation and adaptation (O' Neill et al 2017): SSP1 sketches a sustainable pathway, with low challenges to mitigation and adaptation; SSP2 describes the 'middle of the road' trajectory with medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation; SSP3 reflects a future world of regional rivalry with high challenges to both mitigation and adaptation; SSP4 represents a future marked by inequality, with low challenges to mitigation and high challenges to adaptation; and the SSP5 trajectory is dominated by ongoing fossil-fuel development and high energy demand, with high challenges to mitigation and low challenges to adaptation. ...
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In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative forcing targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for Antarctic rapid discharge from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986–2005 of 89 cm (likely range: 57–130 cm) for SSP1, 105 cm (73–150 cm) for SSP2, 105 cm (75–147 cm) for SSP3, 93 cm (63–133 cm) for SSP4, and 132 cm (95–189 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios are dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 52 cm (34–75 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm⁻², 62 cm (40–96 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm⁻², 75 cm (47–113 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm⁻², and 91 cm (61–132 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm⁻². Average 2081–2100 annual SLR rates are 5 mm yr⁻¹ and 19 mm yr⁻¹ for FT 2.6 Wm⁻² and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. We find that 2100 median SSP SLR projections could be limited to around 50 cm if 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial stay below 850 GtC, with a global coal phase-out nearly completed by that time. For SSP mitigation scenarios, a 2050 carbon price of 100 US$2005 tCO2⁻¹ would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 65 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.