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SSP-RCP scenario matrix illustrating ScenarioMIP simulations. Each cell in the matrix indicates a 1 combination of socioeconomic development pathway (SSP) and climate outcome based on a particular forcing 2 pathway that is feasible to produce in an IAM. Dark blue cells indicate scenarios that will serve as the basis for 3 climate model projections in Tier 1 of ScenarioMIP; light blue cells indicate scenarios in Tier 2. An overshoot 4 version of the 3.4 W/m 2 pathway is also part of Tier 2, as are long-term extensions of SSP5-8.5, SSP1-2.6 and the 5 overshoot scenario, and initial condition ensemble members of SSP3-7.0. White cells indicate scenarios for which 6 climate information is intended to come from the SSP scenario to be simulated for that row. CMIP5 RCPs, which 7 were developed from previous socioeconomic scenarios rather than SSPs, are shown for comparison. Note the 8 SSP1-2.0 scenario indicated here is preliminary (see text). 9
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Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP6) that that will provide mu...
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... choosing the SSP that we anticipate to be especially relevant, so that if the climate effects of land use and 1 aerosols turn out to be larger than anticipated, climate simulations will still be consistent with that scenario. 2 Table 2 lists all simulations being included in the ScenarioMIP experimental design, divided into two tiers by 5 priority, and the design is summarized visually within the context of the scenario matrix in Figure 2. Overall, the 6 design has the following general features: 7 These scenarios are arranged into two Tiers as follows: 20 Tier 1 spans a wide range of uncertainty in future forcing pathways important for research in climate 21 science, IAM, and IAV studies, while also providing key scenarios to anchor experiments in a number of 22 other MIPs (see last column in Table 1 pathways that fall between RCPs 2.6 and 4.5, and a scenario lower than the RCP 2.6 forcing pathway 29 intended to help inform policy discussion of a global average temperature limit below 1.5 °C warming 30 relative to pre-industrial levels. ...
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Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in
improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing
societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison
Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-mode...
Citations
... SSP2-4.5 represents a scenario with intermediate GHG emissions (the 2nd SSP), which plateau around 2050 and then decline but do not reach net zero in 2100; the expected TOA radiative forcing is 4.5 W/m 2 . Finally, the Historical simulations represent the past climate and are used to tune the surface temperature time series from all future-climate simulations 43,44 . ...
Solar radiation modification (SRM) has been proposed to temporarily reduce anthropogenic warming. This study presents an assessment of the regional impacts of SRM via solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on temperature and precipitation over 0°–30° N and 90° E–110° E, covering Mainland Southeast Asia and adjacent oceans. Using data from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6), we examine regional impacts of SRM using three SRM experiments: (1) G6Sulfur, which reduces radiative forcing from the high-emission SSP5–8.5 scenario to the moderate-emission SSP2–4.5 scenario by injecting sulfate aerosols; (2) G6Solar, which similarly reduces radiative forcing from the high-emission to moderate-emission scenarios but by uniformly reducing the solar constant; and (3) G1ext, which reduces radiative forcing from a quadrupled carbon dioxide concentration to pre-industrial levels by uniform solar constant reduction. Our findings show that higher greenhouse gas emissions increase overall precipitation, along with tendencies to have extreme rainfall events and more dry episodes in between. While SRM can partially cool down the surface temperature warming caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions, its effects on precipitation are complex: Solar dimming in G6Solar and G1ext tends to reduce overall precipitation, and tropical sulfate injection in G6Sulfur could lead to further drying in the tropics because of the stratospheric warming associated with the injected aerosols. Different SRM strategies might result in different responses on precipitation.
... CMIP and GCMs have been extensively utilized to reveal future climate impacts on flow regimes across various studies (Bhatta et al. 2019;Shafeeque et al. 2023). The sixth iteration of the CMIP (CMIP6) introduces the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), which is based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (O 'Neill et al. 2016). This iteration represents a significant advancement in the global project by integrating and anticipating socioeconomic factors, a new aspect compared to CMIP5 highlighted in the IPCC AR6 report. ...
... Each SSP provides a corresponding projection of greenhouse gas emissions and land-use changes based on the baseline SSP narrative. ScenarioMIP offers a database for water resource studies (O' Neill et al. 2016), allowing the incorporation of projected scenarios into hydrological models. This integration enhances our understanding of the physical interactions between climate, societal factors, and hydrological processes. ...
Future changes in streamflow and sediment, influenced by anthropogenic activities and climate change, have a crucial role in watershed management. This study aimed to quantify the effects of anthropogenic and natural drivers on future streamflow and sediment changes in the tropical Sai Gon Dong Nai River basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Specifically, the model incorporated thirty-six reservoirs and analyzed twenty future climate projected scenarios from four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 2023–2100. These models include BCC-CSM2-MR (China), CanESM5 (Canada), MIROC6 (Japan), and MRI-ESM2-0 (Japan). Our findings indicate that (1) dam operation and diversion lead to a 0.5% decrease in streamflow during the dry season and a 4.1% increase during the rainy season compared to those in scenarios without dams; (2) there is a 37.4% decrease in annual sediment across the entire basin under same climate conditions; and (3) rainfall is projected to decrease (24.6% – 6.2%), resulting in a decrease in streamflow (0.2 – 32.2%) and sediment (39.3 – 56.0%) compared to historical records. Streamflow is expected to decrease during the rainy season (16.7 – 23.1%) and increase during the dry season (14.5 – 25.4%). Further potential degradation of the environmental conditions and water mismanagement are caused by the synergies between too much and too little rainfall conditions. The anticipated reductions in future streamflow and sediment could adversely affect ecological streamflow, water security, and sediment dynamics in the Sai Gon Dong Nai River basin. Our approach effectively identifies future changes in streamflow and sediment due to the combined effects of climate change and reservoir operations, providing valuable insights for integrated water resource management in tropical regions.
... Except for hist-ALL ending in 2014, both hist-NAT and hist-GHG runs end in 2020. Previous studies often used the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 to extend hist-ALL simulations, as the SSP2-4.5 pathway can match the current economic development path best (48)(49)(50). We combine the simulation from SSP2-4.5 to extend the hist-ALL simulations to 2020. ...
Heatwaves are consecutive hot days with devastating impacts on human health and the environment. These events may evolve across both space and time, characterizing a spatiotemporally contiguous propagation pattern that has not been fully understood. Here, we track the spatiotemporally contiguous heatwaves in both reanalysis datasets and model simulations and examine their moving patterns (i.e., moving distance, speed, and direction) in different continents and periods. Substantial changes in contiguous heatwaves have been identified from 1979 to 2020, with longer persistence, longer traveling distance, and slower propagation. These changes have been amplified since 1997, probably due to the weakening of eddy kinetic energy, zonal wind, and anthropogenic forcing. The results suggest that longer-lived, longer-traveling, and slower-moving contiguous heatwaves will cause more devastating impacts on human health and the environment in the future if greenhouse gas emissions keep rising and no effective measures are taken immediately. Our findings provide important implications for the adaption and mitigation of globally connected extreme heatwaves.
... General circulation models, also known as global climate models (GCMs), are widely used to quantify projected impacts of future global climate extremes [9], [10], [11]. Version 6 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) introduces the new concept of the scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP), which is now based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) [12]. ...
... Each SSP drives a corresponding future projection of greenhouse gas emissions and land cover changes based on its baseline storyline. In addition, ScenarioMIP provides a database essential for water resource inquiries [11], incorporating projected scenarios into hydrological models to enhance our understanding of the physical impact of climate and societal factors on water regimes. However, selecting appropriate CMIP6 GCMs is critical due to various factors such as resolution [15] and geographical characteristics of the region [16]. ...
Quantifying the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes under the impacts of climate change is crucial for effective water resource management. In this study, we utilize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model, robust indices, e.g., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) as well as the Interquartile Range (IQR) method for a comprehensive analysis of the river flow response to future climate scenarios towards 2090. Four General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been used, including BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0. We aim to reveal the future impacts of extreme events and their potential consequences for local livelihoods and human well-being in the Srepok River basin—a major tributary of the Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia. Our findings include (1) a significant discrepancy between extreme events found with more flood events projected towards 2090; (2) a shift in precipitation patterns with an increase in intensity is observed; and (3) a correlation between climatic extremes and regional characteristics has been identified. This work provides valuable insights into the anticipated changes in climatic extremes under the impacts of climate change and serves as the scientific basis for stakeholders and decision-makers to develop adaptative strategies and sustainable plans to enhance the region's resilience.
... To this end we apply a recently developed postprocessing method based on physically constrained CycleGANs to global simulations of a state-of-the-art, high-resolution ESM from the CMIP6 model ensemble, namely the GFDL-ESM4 (Krasting et al., 2018;O' Neill et al., 2016). We evaluate our method against the gold-standard bias correction framework ISIMIP3BASD. ...
The accurate representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is crucial for reliable projections of the ecological and socioeconomic impacts in response to anthropogenic global warming. The complex cross-scale interactions of processes that produce precipitation are challenging to model, however, inducing potentially strong biases in ESM fields, especially regarding extremes. State-of-the-art bias correction methods only address errors in the simulated frequency distributions locally, at every individual grid cell. Improving unrealistic spatial patterns of the ESM output, which would require spatial context, has not been possible so far. Here, we show that a post-processing method based on physically constrained generative adversarial networks (GANs) can correct biases of a state-of-the-art, CMIP6-class ESM both in local frequency distributions and in the spatial patterns at once. While our method improves local frequency distributions equally well as gold-standard bias-adjustment frameworks it strongly outperforms any existing methods in the correction of spatial patterns, especially in terms of the characteristic spatial intermittency of precipitation extremes.
... CMIP6 is being addressed multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios that are directly relevant to societal concerns regarding climate change mitigation, adaptation, or impacts. These climate projections were driven by a new set of emissions and LULC scenarios (Riahi et al., 2016) produced with integrated assessment models (IAM) based on new future pathways of societal development, the SSPs, and were related to the RCPs. A new set of 345 historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database, and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015-2100) from IAM teams, were provided as input for these models (Hurtt et al., 2020). ...
Climate change is one of the greatest long-term challenges faced by humanity. In the projection of climate change impacts, scenarios based on assumptions regarding future conditions are commonly used. Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) are widely employed as socio-economic scenarios for global-scale predictions. The SSPs provide future projections of population and gross domestic products. However, SSPs are not suitable for detailed assessments for a country such as Japan, as they include only global regional data. The S-18 project aims at a nationally unified projection of climate change impacts across multiple sectors in Japan. In contribution to this, based on the previous study for Japan SSPs, we established common socio-economic scenarios designated as Japan SSP1, Japan SSP5, and status quo. Japan SSP1 and Japan SSP5 are based on qualitative links to global SSPs. Japan SSP1 foresees sustainable society with low-carbon emission, while Japan SSP5 envisions a society dependent on fossil fuels, emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases. The status-quo scenario assumes no future change based on the current conditions in Japan. Moreover, we provided a common dataset of population and land-use under these scenarios. Population data were obtained from existing population projections, and land-use data were estimated according to population changes and current land-use classifications. Here, the dataset prepared for the S-18 project is detailed and possibilities for its improvement discussed.
... A key focus of CMIP6 is on coordinating experiments to understand climate variability better, and with CMIP6, potential bias is expected to be minimized to a greater extent than CMIP5 [42]. Recent studies have revealed that CMIP6 GCMs perform better at simulating the climatic indexes in China and other regions [43][44][45][46]. However, the climate change impacts on winter wheat grain yield have not been investigated in depth, which could provide adaptation strategies for sustainable grain production in the future. ...
... Climate change assessments are critical for better understanding the climate system and addressing social hazards and mitigation strategies [44]. For the CMIP6, the Scenario Model Inter-comparison Project (ScenarioMIP) develops a series of predictions for the future climate using simulations based on concentration [62]. ...
The projected climate change substantially impacts agricultural productivity and global food security. The cropping system models (CSM) can help estimate the effects of the changing climate on current and future crop production. The current study evaluated the impact of a projected climate change under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) on the grain yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain by adopting the CSM-DSSAT CERES-Wheat model. The model was calibrated and evaluated using observed data of winter wheat experiments from 2015 to 2017 in which nitrogen fertigation was applied to various growth stages of winter wheat. Under the near-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060), and long-term (2081-2100) SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the future climate projections were based on five global climate models (GCMs) of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The GCMs projected an increase in grain yield with increasing temperature and precipitation in the near-term, mid-term, and long-term projections. In the mid-term, 13% more winter wheat grain yield is predicted under 1.3 °C, and a 33 mm increase in temperature and precipitation , respectively, compared with the baseline period (1995-2014). The increasing CO2 concentration trends projected an increase in average grain yield from 4 to 6%, 4 to 14%, and 2 to 34% in the near-term, mid-term, and long-term projections, respectively, compared to the baseline. The adaptive strategies were also analyzed, including three irrigation levels (200, 260, and 320 mm), three nitrogen fertilizer rates (275, 330, and 385 kg ha −1), and four sowing times (September 13, September 23, October 3, and October 13). An adaptive strategy experiments indicated that sowing winter wheat on October 3 (traditional planting time) and applying 275 kg ha −1 nitrogen fertilizer and 260 mm irrigation water could positively affect the grain yield in the North China Plain. These findings are beneficial in decision making to adopt and implement the best management practices to mitigate future climate change impacts on wheat grain yields. Citation: Shoukat, M.R.; Cai, D.; Shafeeque, M.; Habib-ur-Rahman, M.; Yan, H. Warming Climate and Elevated CO2 Will Enhance Future
... RCPs depict plausible climate outcomes in aspects of emissions, concentrations and land cover/use (Van Vuuren et al., 2011), providing predicted radiative forcing by 2100 from less than 1.9 W/m − 2 to more than 8.5 W/m − 2 . The combined scenarios of SSPs and RCPs represent different levels of societal vulnerability and radiative forcing (Neill et al., 2016). ...
Balancing biodiversity conservation and food security is the key to global sustainable development. However, we know little about the future global conflict risk hotspots between biodiversity and food security at both country and Biodiversity Hotspots (BHs) levels. First we calculated land use intensity index (LUII) based on future land use simulation, incorporated data on species richness(including birds, mammals and amphibians) and introduced the Global Food Security Index (GFSI). Then we used local indicators of spatial association (LISA) and bivariate choropleth map to identify the future global conflict risk hotspots between biodiversity conservation and food security. These include 10 countries (including Congo (Kinshasa), Sierra Leone, Malawi, Togo, Zambia, Angola, Guinea, Nigeria, Laos, Cambodia) and 7 BHs (Eastern Afromontane, Guinean Forests of West Africa, Horn of Africa, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany and Tropical Andes). Special attention needs to be paid to these hotspots to balance biodiversity conservation and food security.
Data Availability
Global LUCC is available at http://www.geosimulation.cn/Global-SSP-RCP-LUCC-Product.html, Species richness dataset is available at https://biodiversitymapping.org/, BH dataset is available at https://zenodo.org/record/3261807#.X_QoYDPAiAf, GFSI is available at https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/
... Zhuang and Zhang, 2020)。但是，目前的科学研究 很大程度上尚不能满足于"一带一路"区域应对气 候变化、防范与管理气候灾害风险和绿色低碳转型 的迫切需求。 前面开展的1.5°C/2°C温升目标下气候变化预 估 的 研 究 工 作 多 基 于 CMIP5模 式 试 验 数 据 ( Mitchell et al., 2016;Schleussner et al., 2016;Huang et al., 2017;徐 影 等 , 2017;King and Karoly, 2017;Tian et al., 2017;翟盘茂等, 2017 Neill et al., 2016;Stouffer et al., 2017; 张 丽 霞 等 , 2019; 周 天 军 等 , 2019; 姜 彤 等 , 2020)。上述文献多限于不同增暖温升目标下全球 或者东亚等区域未来气候变化预估及其影响，对" 一带一路"主要陆域未来气候变化的研究还涉及不 多。因此，本文聚焦在"一带一路"倡议的"六廊 六路多国多港"主体框架所在区域，采用CMIP6 的16个全球模式历史试验与SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和SSP5-8.5三种未来情景试验结果，集合预估了 ...
Surface air temperature and precipitation changes over major land regions of the Belt and Road Initiative under the 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets are projected by the multi-model ensemble (MME) method based on the 16-member CMIP6. The MME mean simulations of 16-member CMIP6 can capture observed spatial structures in surface air temperature and precipitation for the period of 1995−2014. Relative to the pre-industrial levels (1850−1900), the global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will occur in the middle and late 2020s and around 2040, respectively, for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (SSP2-4.5), SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Under the 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets, the MME mean projections show that averaged over major land regions of the Belt and Road Initiative, annual average surface air temperature will increase significantly by 1.84°C and 2.43°C with a difference of 0.59°C; for the standard deviations between 16-CMIP6 models, they are 0.18°C and 0.21°C. Annual precipitation will increase significantly by 20.14 mm/a and 30.02 mm/a, with a difference of 9.88 mm/a; and the standard deviations between 16-CMIP6 models are 10.79 mm/a and 13.72 mm/a. Spatially, annual mean surface air temperature are projected to generally have significant increases over the whole study areas compared with the pre-industrial levels under the two global warming targets with the stronger warming magnitudes at high latitudes than at low latitudes. Future precipitation variations are projected to show clear spatial differences: Annual mean precipitation will decrease over the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions, yet increase over most of the remaining areas. The aridity represented by P-E index will reach the maximum in Europe, Southern China to Indochina Peninsula, South Asia, Eastern India, Southeast Asia and Central Africa.
... Currently, the "not"-camp prevails. gave no probabilistic interpretation when the SPA/SSP-framework was introduced, and the later accounts and applications followed suit (e.g., O'Neill et al., 2016;Riahi et al., 2017). The question is whether there is sufficient information for providing some sort of probabilistic weighting on scenarios (Ho et al., 2019;Hausfather and Peters, 2020). ...
In the annual Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, CLICCS researchers make the first systematic attempt to assess which climate futures are plausible, by combining multidisciplinary assessments of plausibility. The inaugural 2021 Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook addresses the question: Is it plausible that the world will reach deep decarbonization by 2050?
