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Response signatures outperform pathway methods for patient survival. a Pan-cancer associations between pathway scores and patient survival. Pathways on the horizontal axis and different methods on the vertical axis. Associations of survival increase (green) and decrease. Significance labels as indicated. Shades correspond to effect size, p values as indicated. b Volcano plot of cancers-specific associations between patient survival and inferred pathway score using PROGENy. Effect size on the horizontal axis. Below zero indicates increased survival (green), above decreased survival (red). FDRadjusted p values on the vertical axis. Size of the dots corresponds to number of patients in each cohort. c Kaplan-Meier curves of individual associations for kidney (KIRC), low-grade glioma (LGG), and adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC). Pathway scores are split in top and bottom quartiles and center half. Lines show the fraction of patients (vertical axis) that are alive at a given time (horizontal axis) within one year. P values for discretized scores 

Response signatures outperform pathway methods for patient survival. a Pan-cancer associations between pathway scores and patient survival. Pathways on the horizontal axis and different methods on the vertical axis. Associations of survival increase (green) and decrease. Significance labels as indicated. Shades correspond to effect size, p values as indicated. b Volcano plot of cancers-specific associations between patient survival and inferred pathway score using PROGENy. Effect size on the horizontal axis. Below zero indicates increased survival (green), above decreased survival (red). FDRadjusted p values on the vertical axis. Size of the dots corresponds to number of patients in each cohort. c Kaplan-Meier curves of individual associations for kidney (KIRC), low-grade glioma (LGG), and adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC). Pathway scores are split in top and bottom quartiles and center half. Lines show the fraction of patients (vertical axis) that are alive at a given time (horizontal axis) within one year. P values for discretized scores 

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Aberrant cell signaling can cause cancer and other diseases and is a focal point of drug research. A common approach is to infer signaling activity of pathways from gene expression. However, mapping gene expression to pathway components disregards the effect of post-translational modifications, and downstream signatures represent very specific expe...

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... a leave-one-out strategy of model building and perturbation scoring, our inferred pathway activation is strongly (p < 10 -10 , except p < 10 -5 for Trail) associated with the pathway that was experimentally perturbed. The associations of a pathway signature with other pathways are weaker (p > 10 -5 ), except for EGFR with MAPK/PI3K and TNFa with NFkB/MAPK ( Fig. 2a and Supplementary Fig. 5, left), where there is biologically known cross-activation 27 . Relative activation patterns are consistent across input experiments ( Supplementary Fig. 5, right). ...
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... associations of a pathway signature with other pathways are weaker (p > 10 -5 ), except for EGFR with MAPK/PI3K and TNFa with NFkB/MAPK ( Fig. 2a and Supplementary Fig. 5, left), where there is biologically known cross-activation 27 . Relative activation patterns are consistent across input experiments ( Supplementary Fig. 5, right). ...
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... all cancer types, PROGENy found a strong association between the activation of EGFR, MAPK, PI3K, and Hypoxia pathways and decreased survival, similar to other signature methods (Fig. 5a). Gene Ontology found much weaker associations for expression of those pathways, and the other pathway mapping methods missed them almost entirely. PROGENy is the only method to find an increase in survival associated with the activation of the Trail/apoptosis pathway, while other methods show either a decrease or no effect, or we did ...
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... individual cancer types, PROGENy finds a similar separation between oncogenic and tumor-suppressor pathways (Fig. 5b), showing that it can capture both general and specific patterns in gene expression changes. Importantly, pathway mapping methods do not provide this separation and our associations are significant for more cancer types and more specific to individual pathways ( Supplementary Fig. 11). In addition, we find cancer-specific associations ...
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... and Low-Grade Glioma (LGG) show decreased survival with TNFa and JAK- STAT pathways, respectively, where specific activating mutations are much less known than for EGFR/MAPK. For these three associations, the top and bottom quartiles of PROGENy pathway activity were able to stratify patients in groups with over 25% difference in one year survival (Fig. 5c). These associations are stable when resampling patients (Supplementary Table 7). In summary, we can observe that signature-based methods generally outperform pathway mapping for survival associations, but the difference between PROGENy and the signatures of SPEED 5,26 and Gatza et al. 18 is less pronounced than for driver mutations or ...

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... Further analysis covered a wide range of cellular phenotypes and focused on calculating the gene signature scores of T cells [15], NK cells [17], B cells [18], macrophages [19], dendritic cells [19], and fibroblasts [20]. These scores were derived via the AddModuleScore function in the seurat framework, which incorporates gene sets (Table S2-7) curated from previous studies [15,[17][18][19][20]. Pathway-responsive genes for activity inference (Progeny) [21] analysis were also utilized to compare and assess the activation levels of specific tumour signaling pathways in epithelial cells between PL and LM. ...
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