Renewable energy technology roadmap to Sri Lanka 

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... on the four extremes defined above, we sketched the four scenarios of Sri Lanka’s renewable energy future. The results are shown below in Figure 2. Moving forward to the next stage of the study (Step 05), scenarios were elaborated based on three key variables. The path to the scenario, the outcome of the scenario and finally the early warning signals were presented when describing the scenarios. Table 4; summarize the outcome of scenario planning process. Considering the four scenarios the obvious choice was the second scenario (Green Paradise) in which the scenario was developed based on the rising fossil fuel prices and favourable government policies towards renewable energy. The study claims that the nation should target the “Green Paradise” as our ultimate destination by year 2030. Thus the technology roadmap was developed to reach said destination. The presentation of roadmap is very important in technology road mapping process. Roadmaps presented in multiple layers, bars, tables, graphs, pictures, flow charts, single layers, and text are some of such approaches [22]. Literature revels that the multiple layer roadmap with short medium and long term time horizons, clear definition of critical factors and suggested actions to be implemented are the most common form of technology road mapping available. However in our study we used flow charts to graphically represent the flow of activities that needed to manifest “Green Paradise” by year 2030. Thus the outcome of this study is presented in Figure 3 and technology roadmap for Sri Lanka to reach desired destination was developed in six sequential steps. The future of the renewable energy sector depends on the availability of the resources and the exploitation capacity. Presently the investors initiate the renewable energy power projects by identifying the resources potential by themselves. In our technology roadmap we propose to change this system, in which the authorities should initiate the renewable energy power project by identifying and allocating the resources to the IPPs based on resource optimization criteria. Thus the resources should be allocated under the condition that the investors have to optimally use the resource to generate the power. Interviews conducted with the wind power experts of the country claim that the lack of information in the respective power sector is one of the major challenges faced by the renewable energy power producers of the country. Experts claim that the country has a comprehensive data base on the hydro power sector as it’s been used comprehensively in the country. But still the authorities are trying to map the other renewable energy potential such as wind, solar and biomass to develop an accurate data base. Without comprehensive and consistent database, country will not be able to use the resources optimally to generate power. Thus concerning all these facts together “Resource potential identification” was considered as the first step in technology road mapping process. There are two ways in which a country can acquire the technology. Either develops the technology in-house of transfer already developed technology in other part of the world. Concerning current technological capabilities in the renewable energy sector of the country, experts claim that the next stage of the technology roadmap should be the effective transfer of technologies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a frequently quoted definition of climate change technology transfer as 'a broad set of processes covering the flows of know-how, experience and equipment for mitigating and adapting to climate change amongst different stakeholders such as governments, private sector entities, financial institutions, non-governmental organizations, and research or education institutions' [10]. Literature claims that the technologies can be transferred through several channels, mainly trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the form of either wholly owned subsidiaries or joint ventures, licensing agreements, official development assistance (ODA), hiring of foreign human resources, and person-to-person pathways such as training programmes, conferences or scientific exchanges. A careful study of existing successful renewable energy technologies in the country such as hydro power sector provides us evidence of technology transfer in its initial stages. Local hydro power sector initiated with international trade in which turbines were imported from foreign sources. But today technology transfer mechanisms in the hydro power sector have extended to technology licensing and even to in-house R&D. However in commercial scale solar power sector, technology transfer mechanisms are only limited to international trade. Booming technologies such as wind power sector still depends on international trade. Technology licensing agreements could also be seen in the wind power sector. However experts claim, that Sri Lanka still lacking with the expertise in the core engineering of renewable energy sector. Experts further claim the technology transfer needs to be carried out gradually in order to transfer the technologies sustainable. Example drawn from China and India claim that these countries did not transfer the renewable energy technologies overnight. Years of technology transfer process have strengthened the production capacities of these emerging countries to compete with many developed nations. The technology transfer does not guarantee that the country will develop the capabilities to manufacture technologies in-house just after acquiring the technology. But small steps like local technology value addition and technology adoption will enable the country to reach the said destination. Under technology value addition, authorities should take appropriate measures to initially transfer and develop operation and maintenance capabilities. Such measures will help the country to continue and retrain the existing transferred technologies from foreign sources. In addition most of such imported technologies comprises with many small units (such as outer casing, wire mesh, etc...) which can be manufactured in-house. Such small steps in local technological value additions will enable us to gradually step towards more advance technologies to develop renewable energy technologies in-house. Most of the time the technology acquired to the country does not suit as it is not to local climatic and environmental condition. For example in the biomass ...