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| Relationship between three Bayesian indices: the probability of direction (pd), the percentage of the full posterior distribution in the ROPE, and the Bayes factor (vs. ROPE).
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Turmoil has engulfed psychological science. Causes and consequences of the reproducibility crisis are in dispute. With the hope of addressing some of its aspects, Bayesian methods are gaining increasing attention in psychological science. Some of their advantages, as opposed to the frequentist framework, are the ability to describe parameters in pr...
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Context 1
... Between ROPE (Full), pd, and BF (vs. ROPE) Figure 6 suggests that the relationship between the ROPE (full) and the pd might be strongly affected by the sample size, and subject to differences across model types. This seems to echo the relationship between ROPE (full) and p-value, the latter having a 1:1 correspondence with pd. ...
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Citations
... Bayes factors provide a continuous quantification of relative evidence, where a Bayes factor exceeding 1 indicates evidence supporting one of the models (usually referred to as the numerator), while a Bayes factor less than 1 indicates evidence in favor of the other model (the denominator). For example, a value of 2 "2 times more probable under the null compared to the alternative hypothesis" (see website of [38]). We found that for most dependent variables, there is anecdotal evidence supporting no difference. ...
Novel display technologies, such as lightfield displays, have become increasingly available. In the automotive domain, these are already in use or are to be used in the future. However, their effect on the user is yet to be explored. Therefore, we conducted a within-subject study (N=15) comparing a baseline visualization of information about automated vehicle functionality with it being visualized either via a LumePad or a LookingGlass display. Interestingly, we found almost no significant differences, thus, indicating that the display technology is less relevant for conveying automated functionality.
... After estimating the model, we used the region of practical equivalence (ROPE) method, a hypothesis testing technique used as a part of Bayesian methods (Kruschke, 2015;Makowski et al., 2019). The ROPE technique involves constructing an interval around a null hypothesis as the ROPE, and then determining what proportion of the distribution for the parameter estimate overlaps with the ROPE. ...
Background
Situational engagement in science is often described as context-sensitive and varying over time due to the impact of situational factors. But this type of engagement is often studied using data that are collected and analyzed in ways that do not readily permit an understanding of the situational nature of engagement. The purpose of this study is to understand—and quantify—the sources of variability for learners’ situational engagement in science, to better set the stage for future work that measures situational factors and accounts for these factors in models.
Results
We examined how learners' situational cognitive, behavioral, and affective engagement varies at the situational, individual learner, and classroom levels in three science learning environments (classrooms and an out-of-school program). Through the analysis of 12,244 self-reports of engagement collected using intensive longitudinal methods from 1173 youths, we found that the greatest source of variation in situational engagement was attributable to individual learners, with less being attributable to—in order—situational and classroom sources. Cognitive engagement varied relatively more between individuals, and affective engagement varied more between situations.
Conclusions
Given the observed variability of situational engagement across learners and contexts, it is vital for studies targeting dynamic psychological and social constructs in science learning settings to appropriately account for situational fluctuations when collecting and analyzing data.
... Parameter summaries from model posterior distributions were operationalized as the median and the 95% highest-density credible interval (CrI). In addition, the probability of direction (P d , i.e., the posterior probability that the true parameter value has the same sign as its point estimate; Makowski et al., 2019) was computed for all parameters, with values of P d > 0.975 indicating "statistical significance" at a level comparable to traditional frequentist tests. Effect sizes for the intervention mechanisms and primary and exploratory clinical outcomes were estimated by calculating the individual contrast of interest in raw scale units (the unstandardized mean difference) and dividing it by pre-intervention (T1) standard deviation of the full sample (Ben-Shachar et al., 2020). ...
This study examined the preliminary feasibility, acceptability, and efficacy of an autism-adapted cognitive behavioral therapy for depression in autistic youth, CBT-DAY. Twenty-four autistic youth (11–17 years old) participated in the pilot non-randomized trial including 5 cisgender females, 14 cisgender males, and 5 non-binary youth. Youth participated in 12 weeks of, CBT-DAY and youth depressive symptoms (i.e., primary clinical outcome) and emotional reactivity and self-esteem (i.e., intervention mechanisms) were assessed through self-report and caregiver report at four timepoints: baseline (week 0), midpoint (week 6), post-treatment (week 12), and follow-up (week 24). Results suggested that CBT-DAY may be feasible (16.67% attrition) in an outpatient setting and acceptable to adolescents and their caregivers. Bayesian linear mixed-effects models showed that CBT-DAY may be efficacious in targeting emotional reactivity [β T1-T3 = −2.53, CrI 95% (−4.62, −0.58), P d = 0.995, d = −0.35] and self-esteem [β T1-T3 = −3.57, CrI 95% (−5.17, −2.00), P d > 0.999, d = −0.47], as well as youth depressive symptom severity [β = −2.72, CrI 95% (−3.85, −1.63), P d > 0.999]. Treatment gains were maintained at follow-up. A cognitive behavioral group therapy designed for and with autistic people demonstrates promise in targeting emotional reactivity and self-esteem to improve depressive symptom severity in youth. Findings can be leveraged to implement larger, more controlled trials of CBT-DAY. The trial was registered at Clinicaltrials.gov (Identifier: NCT05430022; https://beta.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05430022 ).
Lay Abstract
Depression in youth is a significant public health problem worldwide, particularly for autistic youth who are over twice as likely to experience depression than their non-autistic peers. Although pathways to depression are complex, emotional reactivity and negative self-esteem are two risk factors for depression in autistic and non-autistic youth. Although autistic youth are more likely to experience depression than their non-autistic peers, psychotherapy options for autistic youth are very limited; community guidance in the development and testing of psychotherapy programs is a promising approach in autism. Therefore, in this study, we designed an autism-adapted CBT-DAY, in collaboration with autistic community members. Specifically, CBT-DAY combined neurodiversity-affirming and cognitive behavioral approaches to target emotional reactivity and self-esteem in youth to improve depressive symptom severity in a group setting across 12 weeks. We examined the preliminary feasibility, acceptability, and efficacy of CBT-DAY in a pilot non-randomized trial. In addition, we implemented a rigorous protocol for assessing, monitoring, and addressing potential harms in this intervention. Results from 24 autistic youth (11–17 years old) suggest that CBT-DAY may be feasible to use in an outpatient clinical setting and generally acceptable to youth and their caregivers. Participation in CBT-DAY may be associated with significant improvements in youth emotional reactivity and self-esteem, as well as depressive symptom severity per self-report only. Exploratory analyses showed that participation in CBT-DAY may also be associated with significant improvements in internalizing symptoms. Findings demonstrate the potential promise of neurodiversity-affirming and cognitive behavioral approaches to treating depressive symptoms in some autistic youth.
... This could be explained by the difference in sample sizes of diploma holders in the study, as well as differences in sample sizes between studies. There is a general consensus that increasing a sample size is likely to increase the significance in a relationship if it exists (Lakens, 2022;Makowski et al., 2019). The idea of balancing diploma and degree holders in nursing may seem like a good solution, but it may not be effective in the long run. ...
Background
Nurses play a key role in cases of cardiopulmonary arrest by promptly attending to and initiating cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Effective cardiopulmonary resuscitation thus requires nurses to possess appropriate attitudes, competencies, and adherence to the best nursing practice. Cardiac arrests are a prevalent cause of fatalities, being responsible for approximately 30% of deaths worldwide. Despite this statistic, however, research in this specific field is lacking in Namibia.
Objective
The objective of this research was to examine registered nurses’ knowledge, attitudes toward, and practice with regard to cardiopulmonary resuscitation at a selected teaching hospital in Namibia.
Methods
A cross-sectional survey design using a self-administered questionnaire was utilized to purposively recruit 158 registered nurses from the inpatient and outpatient departments of a teaching hospital in Namibia. Descriptive and chi-square tests were performed using SPSSv26.
Results
The results of the study indicate that a significant percentage of nurses have limited knowledge (14.7 ± 1.50), negative attitudes (36.2 ± 4.8), and poor practice (11.16 ± 1.18) when it comes to cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Their poor knowledge is strongly associated with poor practice (χ ² = 9.162, P = .002). The study further revealed a significant correlation between the departments in which the nurses worked and their practice of cardiopulmonary resuscitation, suggesting that the work environment is a crucial factor in determining a nurse's approach to emergency care.
Conclusion
The findings of study indicate that the cardiopulmonary resuscitation practice in the selected hospital is unsafe due to the registered nurses’ poor knowledge and negative attitudes. It is strongly recommended that hospital managers and policy-makers take steps to formulate guidelines that mandate regular cardiopulmonary resuscitation training at predetermined times.
... We therefore considered an estimated change as robust if the 90% HDI did not contain zero and was very likely different from zero. In addition, we also calculated the probability of direction (PD), which is the probability, ranging from 50 to 100%, that the estimated change is either positive or negative (77). Since we were interested in lowered scores for all outcomes, we present the probability of the estimated change being negative. ...
Preventing relapse into violence and its destructive consequences among persistent re-offenders is a primary concern in forensic settings. The Risk-Need-Responsivity framework models the best current practice for offender treatment, focused on building skills and changing pro-criminal cognitions. However, treatment effects are often modest, and the forensic context can obstruct the delivery of interventions. Developing treatments for offenders should focus on the best method of delivery to make “what works work.” Virtual reality (VR)-assisted treatments such as Virtual Reality Aggression Prevention Training (VRAPT) are a new and innovative approach to offender treatment. This pilot study followed 14 male violent offenders who participated in VRAPT in a Swedish prison context and measured changes from pre-treatment to post-treatment and 3-month follow-up in targeted aggression, emotion regulation, and anger. It also investigated potential impact factors (pro-criminal cognitions, externalizing behaviors, psychosocial background, and childhood adverse experiences). In Bayesian linear mixed effects models, participants showed a high probability of change from pre-treatment to post-treatment and to follow-up on all outcome measures. All outcome measures demonstrated a low probability of change from post-treatment to follow-up. Analysis of reliable change showed that participants’ results ranged from recovery to deterioration. We discuss the implications of the study for VRAPT’s impact on the target group, those who might benefit from the approach, and suggested foci for future studies in the field of VR-assisted offender treatment. The study was preregistered at the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number registry ( https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN14916410 ).
... However, it is important to interpret these results with caution, as the Bayes factor only provides relative evidence between models and does not directly quantify the effect size of each fixed effect. Further investigation, including effect size estimation and comparison, is needed to draw more definitive conclusions about the influence of these factors on the outcome variable (as indicated by the medians of the conditional effects and their accompanying density intervals; see Makowski et al., 2019aMakowski et al., , 2019b. ...
Auditory scene analysis (ASA) is the process through which the auditory system makes sense of complex acoustic environments by organising sound mixtures into meaningful events and streams. Although music psychology has acknowledged the fundamental role of ASA in shaping music perception, no efficient test to quantify listeners’ ASA abilities in realistic musical scenarios has yet been published. This study presents a new tool for testing ASA abilities in the context of music, suitable for both normal-hearing (NH) and hearing-impaired (HI) individuals: the adaptive Musical Scene Analysis (MSA) test. The test uses a simple ‘yes–no’ task paradigm to determine whether the sound from a single target instrument is heard in a mixture of popular music. During the online calibration phase, 525 NH and 131 HI listeners were recruited. The level ratio between the target instrument and the mixture, choice of target instrument, and number of instruments in the mixture were found to be important factors affecting item difficulty, whereas the influence of the stereo width (induced by inter-aural level differences) only had a minor effect. Based on a Bayesian logistic mixed-effects model, an adaptive version of the MSA test was developed. In a subsequent validation experiment with 74 listeners (20 HI), MSA scores showed acceptable test–retest reliability and moderate correlations with other music-related tests, pure-tone-average audiograms, age, musical sophistication, and working memory capacities. The MSA test is a user-friendly and efficient open-source tool for evaluating musical ASA abilities and is suitable for profiling the effects of hearing impairment on music perception.
... The result obtained was a posterior probability distribution of the prevalence; the mean and credible intervals at 95% were then calculated from it. Prevalence was estimated using the "truePrevPools" function in the R package "prevalence" [44], and credible intervals (CI) were calculated in the R package "bayestestR" [45,46]. ...
Background
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a life-threatening neglected tropical disease, is targeted for elimination from Nepal by the year 2026. The national VL elimination program is still confronted with many challenges including the increasingly widespread distribution of the disease over the country, local resurgence and the questionable efficacy of the key vector control activities. In this study, we assessed the status and risk of Leishmania donovani transmission based on entomological indicators including seasonality, natural Leishmania infection rate and feeding behavior of vector sand flies, Phlebotomus argentipes, in three districts that had received disease control interventions in the past several years in the context of the disease elimination effort.
Methods
We selected two epidemiologically contrasting settings in each survey district, one village with and one without reported VL cases in recent years. Adult sand flies were collected using CDC light traps and mouth aspirators in each village for 12 consecutive months from July 2017 to June 2018. Leishmania infection was assessed in gravid sand flies targeting the small-subunit ribosomal RNA gene of the parasite (SSU-rRNA) and further sequenced for species identification. A segment (~ 350 bp) of the vertebrate cytochrome b (cytb) gene was amplified from blood-fed P. argentipes from dwellings shared by both humans and cattle and sequenced to identify the preferred host.
Results
Vector abundance varied among districts and village types and peaks were observed in June, July and September to November. The estimated Leishmania infection rate in vector sand flies was 2.2% (1.1%–3.7% at 95% credible interval) and 0.6% (0.2%–1.3% at 95% credible interval) in VL and non-VL villages respectively. The common source of blood meal was humans in both VL (52.7%) and non-VL (74.2%) villages followed by cattle.
Conclusions
Our findings highlight the risk of ongoing L. donovani transmission not only in villages with VL cases but also in villages not reporting the presence of the disease over the past several years within the districts having disease elimination efforts, emphasize the remaining threats of VL re-emergence and inform the national program for critical evaluation of disease elimination strategies in Nepal.
Graphical Abstract
... By comparing the three models on their model fit, making use of leave-one-out cross validation (Gelman et al., 2021), we select the best fitting model for each of the dependent variables. Posterior probability distributions of the parameter estimates based on these best fitting models are explored by describing 89% credible intervals (McElreath, 2020) and the probability of direction (Makowski, et al., 2019). We implemented the model estimation in the probabilistic programming language Stan (Carpenter et al., 2017) making use of R (R Core Team, 2020) and the package brms (Bürkner, 2017), making use of the default weakly informative priors defined in brms, using 6 chains of 6,000 iterations each, with 1,500 burn-in iterations. ...
Writing a synthesis text involves interacting reading and writing processes, serving the comprehension of source information, and its integration into a reader-friendly and accurate synthesis text. Mastering these processes requires insight into process’ orchestrations. A way of achieving this is via process feedback in which students compare their process orchestration with examples. Access to such examples of enacted process orchestration models might have an additional learning effect. In the present study we replicated and extended the study of Vandermeulen et al. (Written Communication, 40(1), 90–144, 2023) on the effect of keystroke logging data-based process feedback with feed-forward exemplars when compared to national baseline performances. In addition, we report the effect of a brief extension in which learners had the opportunity to observe an enacted model of their choice, showing one of three orchestrations of the initial stage of writing a synthesis task. A total of 173 10th—grade students were randomly assigned to a process feedback condition with or without added models. A baseline, consisting of a nationally representative sample of upper-secondary students’ texts and processes, served as an alternative control group. Results showed that the process feedback, both with and without observation, had a significant effect on text quality. Regarding the process data, students in the feedback condition had a more prominent focus on the sources as they spent more time in them and switched more often between text and sources, compared to the baseline. The observation task magnified this effect.
... Probability of direction was calculated from posterior distributions and represents the percent of posterior draws greater or less than zero, depending on the sign of the median value. Probability of direction ranges from 50%, where posterior draws are evenly distributed above and below zero indicating no statistical clarity about the effect of the covariate, to 100%, where all posterior draws occur above or below zero indicating high statistical clarity about the effect of the covariate (Hespanhol et al., 2019;Makowski et al., 2019). ...
Anthropogenic activities can profoundly affect ecological communities. This is true of the most ubiquitous type of anthropogenic land-use, livestock grazing. While livestock grazing is known to impact vegetation structure, soil, and hydrological features, the effects of livestock occurrence on animal communities are often more complex. Herein, we estimated the relative effects of cattle occurrence and vegetation structure on the occupancy of a carnivore guild in northern California and southern Oregon, USA. We used remote cameras to non-invasively collect detection and non-detection data of cattle and nine carnivore species. We incorporated detection data into a Bayesian hierarchical occupancy model to estimate the effects of livestock occurrence and vegetation structure on carnivore occupancy. We found varied effects of cattle occurrence on carnivore occupancy, with most species showing no clear response to cattle occurrence. Vegetation structure, including structural diversity and vegetation productivity, had stronger effects on carnivore occupancy than cattle occurrence. This work provides an exploration of the effects of cattle occurrence and forest structure on carnivore space-use in a grazed forest system, and suggests vegetation structure may have stronger effects than cattle occurrence on carnivore occupancy in grazed forest systems. Future work to clarify the direct and indirect effects of livestock occurrence can inform conservation and management strategies in forested ecosystems.
... Pd ranges between 0.5 and 1 and indicates the degree to which the posterior distribution goes in the observed direction. The value 1-pd is equivalent to a one-sided p-value 54 . ...
Typically developing humans automatically synchronize their arousal levels, resulting in pupillary contagion, or spontaneous adaptation of pupil size to that of others. This phenomenon emerges in infancy and is believed to facilitate social interaction. Williams syndrome (WS) is a genetic condition characterized by a hyper-social personality and social interaction challenges. Pupillary contagion was examined in individuals with WS ( n = 44), age-parallel-matched typically developing children and adults ( n = 65), and infants ( n = 79). Bayesian statistics were used. As a group, people with WS did not show pupillary contagion (Bayes factors supporting the null: 25–50) whereas control groups did. This suggests a very early emerging atypical developmental trajectory. In WS, higher pupillary contagion was associated with lower autistic symptoms of social communication. Diminished synchronization of arousal may explain why individuals with WS have social challenges, whereas synchronization of arousal is not a necessary correlate of high social motivation.
