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Regions of interest in this assessment. Immediate sources of S. frugiperda occur in 'core America' and 'core Africa' (sub-Saharan Africa). The EU 28 is the risk assessment area. North Africa and the Middle East are future potential sources of S. frugiperda spreads from core Africa. The focus of this partial assessment is on plant products from core-America and sub-Saharan Africa
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Abstract EFSA was asked for a partial risk assessment of Spodoptera frugiperda for the territory of the EU focussing on the main pathways for entry, factors affecting establishment, risk reduction options and pest management. As a polyphagous pest, five commodity pathways were examined in detail. Aggregating across these and other pathways, we esti...
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... entry model with trade is made in detail for five commodities. Furthermore, for each commodity, five regions or origin are considered: core America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the pest is present, north Africa and the Middle East, where the pest is currently absent, but where it may establish in the foreseeable future, and the rest of the world, where the pest is absent and not expected to establish within the time horizon of this assessment (Figure 1). Core America is defined as all of the Americas except Canada and the USA in the Northern hemisphere and Chile, Argentina and Uruguay in the southern hemisphere. ...
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... entry via the pathways assessed in detail (Appendices E-I) and other vegetable and cut flower pathways (Section 3.1.8; Appendix K), Table 5 and Figure 10 indicates the estimated range in mean number of infested transfer units entering on all trade pathways considered for each scenario. ...
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... the EU diets have become more homogeneous, there has been increased intakes in Mediterranean countries of saturated fats, cholesterol and sugar, while there has been reductions in saturated fat and sugar in Northern European countries ( Schmidhuber and Traill, 2006). Figure 11 delineates the apportionment by NUTS 2 regions (Appendix L). It is noteworthy that Andalucia is among the NUTS 2 regions receiving the higher amounts of commodities (50% probability interval that 1,200-6,400 infested units enter annually; median value 2,600 infested units enter annually) (see also Section 3.2 establishment). ...
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... S. frugiperda were to establish in North Africa, Figures 12 and 13 represent potential trajectories from source host crop growing regions in Morocco and Tunisia. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the number of moths that could reach the EU each year from North Africa, with estimates ranging from a few hundred individuals to around two million although it is more likely that in the range of tens to hundreds of thousands would enter each year, many arriving into Andalucia (Table 6 and Figure 14). Small pockets in isolated areas north of the Sahara, even if not in the maize or primary host areas, provide sources from which populations can spread to reach maize, and then subsequent populations can spread further afield, including into the EU, where further spread could occur. ...
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... distributed within the EU NUTS 2 regions, many regions are expected to receive less than 50 infested units per year. However, median estimates suggest that for a few NUTS 2 regions, there may be between 1,000 and 10,000 infested units per year ( Figure 11). Model outputs indicate that Andalucia is one of the NUTS 2 regions that receive the most infested commodities. ...
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... the areas suitable for establishment do not occur in the same locations as the main maize growing regions of the EU, which lies further north. In 2016, maize was harvested from approximately 17.7 million ha (FAOSTAT, 2018) ( Figure 15). ...
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... areas on the Iberian Peninsula that are found suitable in the SDM ensemble predictions (Figures 15 and 16) are not contiguous. This is due to differences between those regions in the explanatory factors that drive the ensemble prediction, i.e. rainfall in the three wettest months of the year, length of the rainy season, difference in rainfall between the wet and dry season, minimum temperature in the coldest month of the year, and land cover (Section 2.2.1.3). ...
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... can result in inaccuracies near the sea where weather gradients are steep. In presenting Figure 15, a trade-off is made between under-representing locations where climate is suitable for establishment and over-representing locations where SDM suggests establishment is possible when it is not (see Section 3.2.2 Uncertainties). ...
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... uncertainty in maps is a challenge. Figure 16 provides establishment likelihoods using a range of 'thresholds'. Cells coloured red represent climate suitability with greatest confidence. ...
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... importance of MinTemp supports the existence of a hard poleward geographical boundary, caused by one or more months where temperature drops below a threshold. Indeed, only 5% populations in the current range are found in grid cells with MinTemp of 10.9°C or less, and none in grid cells with MinTemp below 3.8°C ( Figure 17). ...
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... the parameters in du Plessis et al. (2018) and with the CLIMEX irrigation scenario in place, the climate at meteorological stations in southern Spain (Andalucia), southern Italy (including Sicily) and Greece have a positive ecoclimatic index (EI) suggesting climatic conditions support the establishment of S. frugiperda (indicated by blue dots in Figure 18). The larger the blue dot the more suitable the climate. ...
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... indicated with asterisks regions contain patches where suitability index is higher than 0.67. The area and intensity of green maize and rice grown in the EU is illustrated in Figure 19 (green maize) and Figure 20 (rice). Table 7: Areas of the main host crops of S. frugiperda, within the NUTS 2 regions where establishment may be possible (suitability index higher than 0.45). ...
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... agreement among results generated by eight SDM techniques and 20 data sets that contributed to the ensemble prediction, i.e. the variation between predictions from multiple SDM techniques and data sets) is shown in Figure 15b). This figure can be thought of as illustrating the uncertainty that the ensemble accurately represents environmental favourability for S. frugiperda population growth, given the results from different data sets and models. ...
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... the North African coast, empirical weather data from meteorological stations reveal pockets where climate is suitable for establishment ( Figure 18) although when interpolated, the subsequent gridded data results in model results that indicate that establishment is not possible (see du Plessis et al., 2018). Where EI is relatively low, different climatologies may indicate differences in patterns of establishment potential due to idiosyncrasies in the manner in which they were generated. ...
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... ensemble SDM shown in Figure 17 and the point station CLIMEX model shown in Figure 18 used monthly 1961-1990 climatic data whereas du Plessis et al. (2018) used 1950-2000 historical climate data set, Kriticos et al. 2012). Ensemble SDM and du Plessis et al. (2018) interpolated the data to provide gridded maps. ...
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... ensemble SDM shown in Figure 17 and the point station CLIMEX model shown in Figure 18 used monthly 1961-1990 climatic data whereas du Plessis et al. (2018) used 1950-2000 historical climate data set, Kriticos et al. 2012). Ensemble SDM and du Plessis et al. (2018) interpolated the data to provide gridded maps. ...
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... on the sensitivity threshold selected, pockets of habitat a few NUTS 2 regions in Spain, Italy and Greece, and possibly Portugal, have climatic conditions where it is reasonable to expect S. frugiperda can establish year-round populations. The NUTS regions in which such areas occur are highlighted in Figure 21, which also indicates the median number of infested commodity units traded into the NUTS regions. ...
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... trade volume of peppers into the EU from countries where Spodoptera frugiperda occurs over the next 5 years EUROSTAT data was extracted to determine the amount of imports and EU intracommunity trade for Capsicum and other peppers over the most recent 7 years (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016) (CN 07096010). Because of the widespread occurrence of S. frugiperda in the Americas and in Africa, import data were grouped into five regions (Map 1). ...
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... trade volume of asparagus into the EU from countries where Spodoptera frugiperda occurs over the next 5 years EUROSTAT data was extracted to determine the amount of imports and EU intracommunity trade for asparagus (CN 0709 20) over the seven year period 2010-2016. Because of the widespread occurrence of S. frugiperda in the Americas and in Africa, import data were grouped into five regions (Figure 1). The great majority of fresh asparagus imported by the EU from third countries comes from countries in Central and South America, the area of 'core distribution' of S. frugiperda. ...
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... Estimated range of mean annual proportion of infested eggplants rejected during postharvest handling or processing over the next 5 years (time horizon for assessment) I.1. Mean trade volume of Rosa cut flowers into the EU from countries where Spodoptera frugiperda occurs over the next 5 years EUROSTAT data was extracted to determine the amount of imports and EU intracommunity trade for rose cut flowers over the most recent 7 years (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016) (CN 0603 11). Because of the widespread occurrence of S. frugiperda in the Americas and in Africa, import data were grouped into five regions (Figure 1). ...
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... trade volume of Rosa cut flowers into the EU from countries where Spodoptera frugiperda occurs over the next 5 years EUROSTAT data was extracted to determine the amount of imports and EU intracommunity trade for rose cut flowers over the most recent 7 years (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016) (CN 0603 11). Because of the widespread occurrence of S. frugiperda in the Americas and in Africa, import data were grouped into five regions (Figure 1). ...
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... Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), known as the fall armyworm, causes substantial damage to >350 plant species and economically significant cultivated crops worldwide, such as maize, rice, sorghum, sugarcane, and cotton (Montezano et al., 2018). Spodoptera frugiperda is native to the Americas and has rapidly spread throughout Africa, the Near East, Asia, and the Pacific since 2016 (Goergen et al., 2016;Jeger et al., 2017;Jeger et al., 2018;Rwomushana, 2019). The wide spread of S. frugiperda worldwide was mainly attributed to the longdistance migration (Westbrook et al., 2016). ...
... The biocontrol of S. frugiperda using natural enemies is environmentally safe and has proven effective (Jeger et al., 2017;Jeger et al., 2018). Among the natural enemies of S. frugiperda, the egg parasitoids could provide effective control by destroying eggs of S. frugiperda before it enters the most damaging larval phase (Dequech et al., 2013). ...
Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm, causes major damage to maize and >80 other crops worldwide. Since S. frugiperda successfully invaded China in 2018 via long-distance migration from Myanmar, it has caused major maize yield losses and posed a severe threat to maize production and food security. The biocontrol approach for S. frugiperda using natural enemies is environmentally safe and effective. Estimating the potential suitable area (PSA) for S. frugiperda and its natural enemies can provide insights for its biocontrol and management. Therefore, based on the global distribution records and bioclimatic variables, we modeled the PSA of S. frugiperda and three egg parasitoids in China using an ensemble model (EM). We found that the prediction results of the EM were more reliable than those of a single model. The PSAs of S. frugiperda and its three egg parasitoids were mainly attributed to temperature variables. The PSA of S. frugiperda was divided into migratory and overwintering areas using the mean January 10 °C isotherm from 2018 to 2022. In the overwintering area, Trichogramma chilonis had the largest PSA overlap with S. frugiperda (94.57 %), followed by Telenomus remus (68.64 %) and Trichogramma dendrolimi (67.53 %). Telenomus remus and Tr. chilonis were the most effective egg parasitoids against S. frugiperda in the overwintering area. In the migratory area, Tr. chilonis had the largest PSA overlap with S. frugiperda (91.36 %), followed by Tr. dendrolimi (81.70 %) and Te. remus (15.23 %). Trichogramma dendrolimi would be the most effective egg parasitoid against S. frugiperda in the Yangtze River Basin and northeastern China. Trichogramma chilonis was the most effective egg parasitoid against S. frugiperda in central China. Our findings indicate that the three native egg parasitoids would be "good regulators" of S. frugiperda outbreaks in China.
... A reduction or even partial disappearance of the species in the southern American hemisphere, due to the warmer and drier conditions expected there, is predicted [135]. In the European Union, some southern warm Mediterranean areas could provide suitable climatic conditions for the establishment of the species [136]. ...
Climate change already challenges people's livelihood globally and it also affects plant health. Rising temperatures facilitate the introduction and establishment of unwanted organisms, including arthropods, pathogens, and weeds (hereafter collectively called pests). For example, a single, unusually warm winter under temperate climatic conditions may be sufficient to assist the establishment of invasive plant pests, which otherwise would not be able to establish. In addition, the increased market globalization and related transport of recent years, coupled with increased temperatures, has led to favorable conditions for pest movement, invasion, and establishment worldwide. Most published studies indicate that, in general, pest risk will increase in agricultural ecosystems under climate-change scenarios, especially in today's cooler arctic, boreal, temperate, and subtropical regions. This is also mostly true for forestry. Some pests have already expanded their host range or distribution, at least in part due to changes in climate. Examples of these pests, selected according to their relevance in different geographical areas, are summarized here. The main pathways used by them, directly and/or indirectly, are also discussed. Understanding these pathways can support decisions about mitigation and adaptation measures. The review concludes that preventive mitigation and adaptation measures, including biosecurity, are key to reducing the projected increases in pest risk in agriculture, horticulture, and forestry. Therefore, the sustainable management of pests is urgently needed. It requires holistic solutions, including effective phytosanitary regulations, globally coordinated diagnostic and surveillance systems, pest risk modeling and analysis , and preparedness for pro-active management.
... In addition, several reports concerning the damage of this insect in Africa (Goergen et al. 2016;Otim et al. 2018) and Asia (Sharanabasappa et al. 2018) as well as the process of its invasion into Oceania (Wan et al. 2021) have been also published. Besides, the S. frugiperda risk for European Union either by infested commodities or by adults migrating from North Africa was assessed (Jeger et al. 2018). This wide capacity for invasion that has the potential to produce economic losses has attracted the attention of many governments and scientists (Guo et al. 2020;Overton et al. 2021). ...
Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is an important pest in several regions being the use of Bacillus thuringiensis-based bioproducts an alternative for its control. Firstly, 3 L of an aqueous bioproduct suspension was produced and characterized. Its 50% lethal concentration against molecularly identified corn and rice S. frugiperda strains using an artificial diet were 77.01% (95% CL, 68.16–90.47) and 2.22% (95% CL, 0.01–6.68), respectively. The next objective of this work was to evaluate the performance of this bioproduct in maize against S. frugiperda strains under different simulated agrological regions mimicking their corresponding periodic day/night temperatures. Thus, the impact of environmental temperature on the bioproduct efficacy (E) was studied. It was observed that a warmer scenario (35 °C day/30 °C night) could favor the tolerance of corn S. frugiperda strain to the bioproduct (E = 56.36 ± 0.61%) maintaining a high efficacy (92.44 ± 6.55%) when it was tested against rice S. frugiperda strain. Conversely, under temperate conditions, efficacy values ranged from 84 to 95% for both S. frugiperda strains. On the other hand, based on a foliar feeding damage analysis, our bioproduct displayed a significant foliar protection in maize plants infested with either corn or rice S. frugiperda strains.
... How FAW reaches Africa from the Western Hemisphere is an important issue that remains unclear, with trade the most likely mechanism. Using the European Union (EU) as an example, assessments based on FAW intercept frequencies at EU ports of entry suggest that as many as a million FAW larvae could enter the EU annually 52,53 . A related study in Australia found evidence that sea cargo containers are routinely exposed to and often unintentionally carry economically important insects, potentially serving as a conduit for the spread of invasive pests 54 . ...
The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is native to the Americas and a major pest of corn and several other crops of economic importance. The species has characteristics that make it of particular concern as an invasive pest, including broad host range, long-distance migration behavior, and a propensity for field-evolved pesticide resistance. The discovery of fall armyworm in western Africa in 2016 was followed by what was apparently a remarkably rapid spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa by 2018, causing economic damage estimated in the tens of billions USD and threatening the food security of the continent. Understanding the history of the fall armyworm invasion of Africa and the genetic composition of the African populations is critical to assessing the risk posed to different crop types, the development of effective mitigation strategies, and to make Africa less vulnerable to future invasions of migratory moth pests. This paper tested and expanded on previous studies by combining data from 22 sub-Saharan nations during the period from 2016 to 2019. The results support initial descriptions of the fall armyworm invasion, including the near absence of the strain that prefers rice, millet, and pasture grasses, while providing additional evidence that the magnitude and extent of FAW natural migration on the continent is more limited than expected. The results also show that a second entry of fall armyworm likely occurred in western Africa from a source different than that of the original introduction. These findings indicate that western Africa continues to be at high risk of future introductions of FAW, which could complicate mitigation efforts.
... In addition to ECB, other lepidopteran pests that are frequently found on maize are several noctuid species, including the corn earworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), and different Sesamia species [6]. In some Mediterranean areas, including the one involved in this study, certain species of significant worldwide importance, such as Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Smith, are not yet present [7]. ...
Silage corn is an important source of feed in animal husbandry, often affected by the feeding action of diverse corn borers that can compromise harvest quality and quantity. According to the need to reduce the use of chemical insecticides, the main purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of different IPM programs comparing microbial (Btk and baculovirus) and chemical control methods, alone or combined, against O. nubilalis and H. armigera. Assessments were based on counting the number of larvae, inspecting plants superficially and inside the stem, and estimating the derived damages. All tested products proved to be effective in containing the density of these lepidopteran species, with microbial control agents having comparable efficacy in respect to the reference chemical substances (lambda-cialotrina and chlorantraniliprole), even if periodic treatment repetition was required to ensure over-time protection until harvest. Both Btk and HaNPV were successfully applied by the irrigation system during flowering and fruit development periods, when plant height did not allow the use of a tractor-mounted spray bar. This biocontainment approach appears to be sustainable and technically compatible with farm needs.
... It is distributed, mainly in tropical and subtropical areas (5,12). In México, it is main threat to maize (8), it also attacks different crops in other countries (5,21). ...
... The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has carried out a risk assessment of the occurrence and domestication of S. frugiperda in the European Union. The study concluded that, according to current indicators, there is a possibility of its establishment in the Mediterranean region (Spain, Italy, and Greece) due to the increase in temperatures [87]. ...
Climate change and invasive species are major environmental issues facing the world today. They represent the major threats for various types of ecosystems worldwide, mainly managed ecosystems such as agriculture. This study aims to examine the link between climate change and the biological invasion of insect pest species. Increased international trade systems and human mobility have led to increasing introduction rates of invasive insects while climate change could decrease barriers for their establishment and distribution. To mitigate environmental and economic damage it is important to understand the biotic and abiotic factors affecting the process of invasion (transport, introduction, establishment, and dispersal) in terms of climate change. We highlight the major biotic factors affecting the biological invasion process: diet breadth, phenological plasticity, and lifecycle strategies. Finally, we present alien insect pest invasion management that includes prevention, eradication, and assessment of the biological invasion in the form of modelling prediction tools.
... Since FAW is recently introduced in Africa host diversity and interaction need further investigation. According to EFSA report several agro-ecology of the world have potential host and environmental suitability to support FAW distribution throughout the World that need specific design to combat this pest at global level (Health et al., 2018). FAW population outbreak, survival, abundance and generation per year associated with other factors such as host, and natural enemies within each agro-ecology are complicated that need modeling system. ...
The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda is notorious pest that challenge worldwide particularly tropical and sub-tropics. Currently, beyond its native continent, it invaded most African and Asian countries. Based on several researchers' pest risk prediction, this pest has potential to colonize remaining world. The biological traits accompanied with geo-ecological diversity of continents have been complicated global distribution that currently impedes human intervention. Currently, fall armyworm management approaches are varying among countries. In America, various management options including advanced technology have been developed to minimize fall armyworm risk. In Africa, even though various attempts have been made, still now, no concrete management options have been developed due to lack of adequate information on bioecology of this pest. Therefore, future researches need to focus on base line information on pest bio-ecological interaction, simulating distribution pathway, introducing and adapting available technology from native countries is very important. In addition, scattered effort and research output made in African and Asia countries need to be pooled together to help resource poor farmers .
... suitable for year-round survival and establishment of FAW (Jeger et al., 2018). Provided FAW invades northern Africa, FAW can probably reach southern Europe such as Sicily (Jeger et al., 2018). ...
... suitable for year-round survival and establishment of FAW (Jeger et al., 2018). Provided FAW invades northern Africa, FAW can probably reach southern Europe such as Sicily (Jeger et al., 2018). Given the broad host range of FAW, many crops including maize are threatened. ...
Maize productivity is threatened by global climate change. Climate change scenarios suggest that north‐western (NW) Europe will get warmer and drier during the main crop‐growing period. In general, more northerly regions will benefit, whereas more southerly regions will suffer suboptimal rain‐fed farming conditions. In these latter regions in particular, the resulting probable lower realized on‐farm maize grain and biomass yields must be safeguarded. Breeding for resistance against already existing and emerging diseases and insect pests is one component to achieve yield stability across years. Durable multiple‐disease resistance will become especially crucial. Herein, we focus on disease resistance breeding approaches in maize, especially related to northern corn leaf blight and Fusarium ear rots, although virus and bacterial diseases will become more important as well. Continuous adjustments of disease resistance breeding strategies will be required. Insect pest resistance breeding must be improved considerably, as in a warmer world insects will thrive, probably causing detrimental direct (feeding, sucking, etc.) and indirect (vectors of pathogens, feeding wounds creating gateways for many pathogens, passive transport of inoculum across maize plants) effects. Four case studies on insects that are already prevalent in NW Europe or may be expected in the near future are covered in this review. Maize cultivars need to combine both durable multiple‐disease and multiple‐insect resistance, although the implementation of many different effective resistance resources in breeding programmes will be challenging, particularly if trade‐offs among breeding goals appear.
... They have also predicted a reduction or even partial disappearance of the species in the southern American hemisphere, due to the warmer and drier conditions expected there in the middle or end of this century in the north of the sub-continent. In the European Union, some warm areas in Spain, Italy and Greece could provide suitable climatic conditions for the establishment of the species, mainly from populations established in the North of Africa (Jeger et al., 2018). ...
The official version of this FAO IPPC Secretariat (2021) scientific report is written in English. However, the report is also available in other UN-languages, including Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, and Spanish (see above DOI link that directs you to the FAO homepage). x x x x x
Abstract:
Climate change continues to present challenges to life and livelihoods
globally and amplifies the problems humankind is already facing. The focus of this report is to outline the potential effects of climate change on
plant pests, and hence on plant health, based on an analysis of scientific literature
and studies that have investigated such aspects. A plant pest, hereafter referred to as
a “pest”, is any species, strain or bio type of plant, animal or pathogenic agent injurious to plants or plant products. Historic and current examples clearly show the extensive damage that can be caused by pest outbreaks. Warming facilitates the introduction of unwanted organisms; a single, unusually warm winter may be sufficient to
assist the establishment of invasive pests, which otherwise would not be able to establish. In fact, the increased market globalization of recent years, coupled with increased temperatures, has led to a situation that is extremely favourable to pest
movement and establishment, with concomitant increases in the risk of severe forest
and crop impacts.
Studies have evaluated the effects of several atmospheric and climatic factors, including increased temperature, carbon dioxide and ozone and changing water or
humidity patterns, on the distribution, occurrence and abundance of pests and the
severity of the pest risk they pose. Most of the research has focused on managed
systems (e.g. agricultural and horticultural crops, forest trees), whereas unmanaged
systems have been more or less neglected. Many different research approaches have
been used, ranging from conducting laboratory and field experiments to performing
simulation studies of future pest risk.
Most studies, carried out with agricultural and horticultural crops, indicate that, in general,
pest risk from insects, pathogens and weeds will increase in agricultural ecosystems
under climate-change scenarios, especially in today’s cooler Arctic, boreal, temperate and subtropical regions. This is also mostly true for pathogens and insect pests in
forestry. For unmanaged systems, there are only a few research results available and
hence no general conclusions can be drawn.
Preventive, mitigation and adaptation measures to limit the international spread of
pests through trade and travel is necessary. These range from measures such as use
of healthy seed and planting material to the adoption of recent technological developments such as innovative methods of pesticide delivery. Short-and mid-term mitigation and adaptation options include measures such as use of resistant varieties
and the alteration of microclimate.
Despite the wealth of studies on climate-change biology, there are still prominent
gaps in research into the impact of climate change on pests and on hence on plant
health. These gaps include the effect of climate change on the effectiveness of management strategies, on below-ground pests, and on forestry and unmanaged systems. A long-term, multidisciplinary approach is needed that addresses the issues
of developing as well as industrialized countries. International cooperation needs to
be enhanced and investment should also be directed to capacity building, to ensure
strong systems for pest risk analysis, surveillance and monitoring.
x x x
To conclude, the evidence reviewed in this report strongly indicates that in many
cases climate change will result in increasing problems related to plant health
in managed (e.g. agriculture, horticulture, forestry), semi-managed (e.g. national
parks) and presumably also unmanaged ecosystems. Adjustments in plant-protection protocols are already necessary because of recent climatic changes, but further
adjustments will become increasingly crucial in the future, assuming the projected
climate-change scenarios come true. Maintaining managed and unmanaged ecosystem services and produce, including food, under climate-change conditions is of
paramount importance. Preventive and curative plant protection is one of the key
components needed to maintain and preserve current and future food security
