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Rank of countries with the highest and lowest risk of drought for combined agricultural systems (rain-fed and

Rank of countries with the highest and lowest risk of drought for combined agricultural systems (rain-fed and

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Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities, and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the most heavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for the first time an integrated assessment of drought risk...

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... water (Supplementary (S3)). Table 02 shows the top and bottom ten countries with the highest/lowest total drought 355 risk (DRItot) as well as their hazard/exposure and vulnerability scores. Seven out of the ten countries with the highest overall drought risk are located on the African continent. ...
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... out of the ten countries with the highest overall drought risk are located on the African continent. However, Armenia, Yemen and Hungary also possess high risk levels (Table 02). Botswana ranks as the country with the highest drought risk mainly due to its high exposure combined with its relatively high vulnerability (S1). ...
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... water (Supplementary (S3)). Table 02 shows the top and bottom ten countries with the highest/lowest total drought 355 risk (DRItot) as well as their hazard/exposure and vulnerability scores. Seven out of the ten countries with the highest overall drought risk are located on the African continent. ...
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... out of the ten countries with the highest overall drought risk are located on the African continent. However, Armenia, Yemen and Hungary also possess high risk levels (Table 02). Botswana ranks as the country with the highest drought risk mainly due to its high exposure combined with its relatively high vulnerability (S1). ...

Citations

... Drought is a creeping natural hazard happening in every climatic zone worldwide and substantially affects agricultural sectors, ecological environment, and economic well-being (Corlett 2016;Kuwayama et al. 2019;Hoque et al. 2020;Meza et al. 2020;Elhoussaoui et al. 2021;Savari et al. 2022). It is often poorly identified in regional climatic, hydrological, and human environments (Van Loon et al. 2016;Ahmadalipour et al. 2019;Vicente-Serrano et al. 2020;Saharwardi & Kumar 2022). ...
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Drought is one of the most common climatic or meteorological hazards and has spatiotemporal characteristics that substantially impact the livelihoods and economy worldwide. Therefore, there is a need for efficient procedures that accurately identify spatio-temporal variability. Moreover, it is crucial to continuously assess and monitor spatiotemporal drought occurrence in a certain region to prevent unfavourable impacts. For this purpose, the current study develops a new procedure for spatiotemporal analysis of the region: The Spatio-Temporal Weighted Joint Agglomerative Drought Index (STWJADI). The STWJADI is mainly based on a weighting scheme known as the Spatio-Temporal Two-Stage Standardized Weighting Scheme (STTSSWS). In the first stage of the STTSSWS, the steady-state probabilities are computed for several stations (Astor, Bunji, Chilas, Gupis, Skardu, and Gilgit) of the Northern region of Pakistan at a 1-month time scale (scale-1) to allocate weights for various drought classes. Moreover, in the second stage of the STTSSWS, the weights are allocated based on spatiotemporal weighting characteristics to acquire new weights for the numerous drought classes in the designated region. Further, the spatiotemporal weights attained from STTSSWS are utilized to compute the STWJADI. The outcomes of the STWJADI provide efficient and comprehensive information for drought characterization in the selected region. ARTICLE HISTORY
... To meet that requirement in the light of global warming and climate change researchers and plant breeders have to make resilient cereal crops and especially crops resistant to drought since drought is considered as one of the reasons for the highest level of crop yield losses (Daryanto, Wang and Jacinthe, 2016). According to (FAO, 2016), drought caused 14.9% of the damage and losses to agricultural sectors by climate-related disasters and the most drought prone areas are warm and dry countries like Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe among others (Meza et al., 2019) (Fathi and Tari, 2016). Through this review, the effect of drought in morphology, phenology, physiology and yield can be known which will highlight the effects which can be tackled while producing a resilient wheat variety. ...
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The burning issue in the world as of now is global warming. Global warming has been a major threat to agriculture and food security. One of the threats caused by global warming is drought, which is responsible for reduced yield of crops and in some cases severely damage the crops to the point of no production and so it poses a big threat towards food security. By knowing in which system drought affects a plant can be used to develop resistant varieties accordingly. Knowing the effects of drought provides a parameter to judge a plant’s level of resistance towards drought. New drought tolerant varieties can be produced by making crosses between varieties which are less affected by drought and selecting among their progeny.
... In particular, the strong and consistent increases over croplands underscore the need for vast and swift deployment of adaptation measures to increase drought resilience of agricultural areas. Such adaptation measures might include the reduction of monocultural cropping 50 , optimizing the use of existing resources 51 , as well as societal coping capacities 52,53 . Additionally, biotechnological enhanced drought-resistance crop types 52-54 might be unavoidable to increase drought resilience of agricultural areas under climate change. ...
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Climate extremes such as droughts and heatwaves have a large impact on terrestrial carbon uptake by reducing gross primary production (GPP). While the evidence for increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes over the last decades is growing, potential systematic adverse shifts in GPP have not been assessed. Using observationally-constrained and process-based model data, we estimate that particularly northern midlatitude ecosystems experienced a +10.6% increase in negative GPP extremes in the period 2000–2016 compared to 1982–1998. We attribute this increase predominantly to a greater impact of warm droughts, in particular over northern temperate grasslands (+95.0% corresponding mean increase) and croplands (+84.0%), in and after the peak growing season. These results highlight the growing vulnerability of ecosystem productivity to warm droughts, implying increased adverse impacts of these climate extremes on terrestrial carbon sinks as well as a rising pressure on global food security. The authors show increased negative extremes in gross primary productivity in northern midlatitude ecosystems, particularly over grasslands and croplands, attributed to impacts of warm droughts. This highlights the vulnerability of terrestrial carbon sinks and food security to increasing extreme events.
... Understanding future drought risks is useful for minimizing the drought impacts via introducing adaptation and mitigation measuring and through building drought resilience over East Africa. According to Meza et al (2019) and ...
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Abstract Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over East Africa. To this end, drought characteristics were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the near term (the 2020s; 2011–2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041–2070), and end of century (2080s; 2071–2,100). The changes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were first compared, and the SPEI was used for measuring future droughts as it showed stronger changes due to its inclusion of temperature effects. Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 36%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with the areas affected by extreme drought increasing more rapidly than severe and moderate droughts. Spatially, drought event, duration, frequency and intensity would increase in Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan, but generally decrease in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that drought changes over East Africa follow the “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” paradigm. The findings provide important guidance for improving identification of causes, minimizing the impacts and enhancing the resilience to droughts in East Africa.
... Understanding future drought risks is useful for minimizing the drought impacts via introducing adaptation and mitigation measuring and through building drought resilience over East Africa. According to Meza et al (2019) and ...
... Climate change and its diverse environmental and societal impacts have become a major global concern [1][2][3]. Droughts are complex, multifaceted, slow-onset hazards that can last for several months or years, affecting wide geographic areas and a large number of people [4][5][6], with severe consequences for human wellbeing, the environment, and the economy [7]. Moreover, it is likely that droughts will increase in the future due to climate change [8,9]. ...
... 4). When looking at the average number of drought events on a provincial level, Matabeleland South and Matabeleland North indicated the highest average of drought events, followed by the Midlands Province, Mashonaland West, Mashonaland Central, and Manicaland. ...
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The devastating impacts of drought are fast becoming a global concern. Zimbabwe is among the countries more severely affected, where drought impacts have led to water shortages, declining yields, and periods of food insecurity, accompanied by economic downturns. In particular, the country's agricultural sector, mostly comprised of smallholder rainfed systems, is at great risk of drought. In this study, a multimethod approach is applied, including a remote sensing-based analysis of vegetation health data from 1989-2019 to assess the drought hazard, as well as a spatial analysis combined with expert consultations to determine drought vulnerability and exposure of agricultural systems. The results show that droughts frequently occur with changing patterns across Zimbabwe. Every district has been affected by drought during the past thirty years, with varying levels of severity and frequency. Severe drought episodes have been observed in. Drought vulnerability and exposure vary substantially in the country, with the southwestern provinces of Matabeleland North and South showing particularly high levels. Assessments of high-risk areas, combined with an analysis of the drivers of risk, set the path towards tailor-made adaptation strategies that consider drought frequency and severity, exposure, and vulnerability.
... As the models including these reservoir representations have grown more complex, so have the questions asked of them. Applications typically include assessments of past and present water withdrawals, human impacts on hydrology, water stress and scarcity (e.g., Biemans et al., 2011;Wada et al., 2011Wada et al., , 2014Yoshikawa et al., 2014;Hanasaki 10 et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2019;Meza et al., 2019). Recently, modelling frameworks have been extended to include water quality ( Wanders et al., 2019) or economic appraisals of the consequences of scarcity ( Bierkens et al., 2019). ...
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Abstract. Model-based risk assessment of hydrological extremes needs to consider the interactions between the many stakeholders in a river basin as well as the institutions and regulations that mediate them. Unfortunately, commonly employed representations of human-operated structures in hydrological models are limited in their ability to capture human-mediated coordination and control actions in complex river basin systems. This study contributes a detailed diagnostic analysis of the parametric controls and their effects in standard reservoir representations in flood and drought modeling. Our diagnostic analysis uses the Water Balance Model (WBM), which features detailed representations of the human infrastructure coupled to the natural processes that shape water balance dynamics. Our analysis focuses on challenges posed by human-mediated coordination and control actions using the multi-reservoir cascade of the Upper Snake River Basin (USRB) in the Western U.S. We employ a time-varying sensitivity analysis that utilizes Method of Morris factor screening to quantify how the parametrizations of the reservoir release rules impact modeled flows throughout the USRB. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the state-space context in which reservoir releases occur and where operational coordination plays a crucial role in avoiding or mitigating water-related extremes. Understanding how major infrastructure is coordinated and controlled in major river basins is essential to properly assessing future flood and drought hazards in a changing world. This implies that the validation of hydrological models for this purpose should move beyond the usual goodness-of-fit checks of outlet flows to incorporate an assessment of the actual emergency response operations used to mitigate hydrological extremes.
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Unlike most disasters, drought does not appear abruptly. It slowly builds over time due to the changes in different environmental and climatological factors. It is one of the deadly disasters that has plagued almost every region of the globe since early civilization. Droughts are scientifically being studied with the help of either simple or composite indices. At 500-m spatial resolution, this study presents global scale drought severity index (DSI), a composite index using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), 8-day temporal resolution evapotranspiration (ET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). This index is mainly used to identify meteorological droughts and also has proven reliable for studying agriculture droughts. In this study, Google Earth Engine (GEE), a cloud-based geospatial data computational platform, is used for drought mapping and monitoring from 2001 to 2019. For annual DSI spatial maps, the statistical median is computed ranging from − 1 to + 1, which means drought struck or dry regions have values closer to negative, and wet zones have values near to positive. For the validity of DSI results, the findings are compared with available records of droughts struck in previous years. This study declares that continent-wise, Australia, Africa, and Asia have the most extreme and frequent drought events while South America and North America come a close second. Europe is the least affected by this particular weather event when compared to other continents.
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Ending hunger and ensuring food security are among targets of 2030’s SDGs. While food trade and the embedded (virtual) water (VW) may improve food availability and accessibility for more people all year round, the sustainability and efficiency of food and VW trade needs to be revisited. In this research, we assess the sustainability and efficiency of food and VW trades under two food security scenarios for Iran, a country suffering from an escalating water crisis. These scenarios are (1) Individual Crop Food Security (ICFS), which restricts calorie fulfillment from individual crops and (2) Crop Category Food Security (CCFS), which promotes “eating local” by suggesting food substitution within the crop category. To this end, we simulate the water footprint and VW trades of 27 major crops, within 8 crop categories, in 30 provinces of Iran (2005–2015). We investigate the impacts of these two scenarios on (a) provincial food security (FSp) and exports; (b) sustainable and efficient blue water consumption, and (c) blue VW export. We then test the correlation between agro-economic and socio-environmental indicators and provincial food security. Our results show that most provinces were threatened by unsustainable and inefficient blue water consumption for crop production, particularly in the summertime. This water mismanagement results in 14.41 and 8.45 billion m³ y⁻¹ unsustainable and inefficient blue VW exports under ICFS. “Eating local” improves the FSp value by up to 210% which lessens the unsustainable and inefficient blue VW export from hotspots. As illustrated in the graphical abstract, the FSp value strongly correlates with different agro-economic and socio-environmental indicators, but in different ways. Our findings promote “eating local” besides improving agro-economic and socio-environmental conditions to take transformative steps toward eradicating food insecurity not only in Iran but also in other countries facing water limitations.
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Traditional, mainstream definitions of drought describe it as deficit in water-related variables or water-dependent activities (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, surface and groundwater storage, and irrigation) due to natural variabilities that are out of the control of local decision-makers. Here, we argue that within coupled human-water systems, drought must be defined and understood as a process as opposed to a product to help better frame and describe the complex and interrelated dynamics of both natural and human-induced changes that define anthropogenic drought as a compound multidimensional and multiscale phenomenon, governed by the combination of natural water variability, climate change, human decisions and activities, and altered micro-climate conditions due to changes in land and water management. This definition considers the full spectrum of dynamic feedbacks and processes (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions and water and energy balance) within human-nature systems that drive the development of anthropogenic drought. This process magnifies the water supply demand gap and can lead to water bankruptcy, which will become more rampant around the globe in the coming decades due to continuously growing water demands under compounding effects of climate change and global environmental degradation. This challenge has de facto implications for both short-term and long-term water resources planning and management, water governance, and policymaking. Herein, after a brief overview of the anthropogenic drought concept and its examples, we discuss existing research gaps and opportunities for better understanding, modeling, and management of this phenomenon.