Figure 21 - uploaded by Tim Sweijs
Content may be subject to copyright.
Similar publications
The estimation models are given in terms of a scheme with the deep integration of the SNS–ARS data. Several assessments of the accuracy of the integrated navigation solutions are discussed using the model trajectory and angular motion of the UniversitetskiiTat’yana2 satellite.
Citations
Since its last bottom-up security and defense review (2010), the Dutch government has committed itself to strengthening its ‘strategic anticipation’ function. Various public and private actors participate in this effort by examining trends and developments in the global security environment and by teasing out their potential security implications for the Netherlands and Europe. HCSS’ contribution to this process consists of the HCSS Strategic Monitor, which is produced annually and takes a number of different forms. Last year’s edition, De Toekomst in Alle Staten, contained a broad horizon scan of the global security environment. For this year’s edition HCSS and the three concerned government departments (Defense, Foreign Affairs and Security and Justice) selected four topics that emerged from last year’s horizon scan and that were deemed to deserve a more in-depth exploration.
True to HCSS’s multimethod and multi-perspective approach to foresight, these 4 explorations were carried
out using a wide range of tools, sources and methods. The key findings and security implications for each of these four studies are summarized below:
Study I – Great Power Assertiveness
Study II – The Role of Pivot States in Regional and Global Security
Study III – State and Non-State Actors: Beyond the Dichotomy
Study IV – Instability in the Periphery of Europe
The policymaking community puts ever more emphasis on basing policy on rigorously collected and curated objective evidence (‘evidence-based policy’). But what is the equivalent for the future of what ‘evidence’ is for the past and present? This paper presents some examples of what we call ‘Foresight 3.0’: an attempt to distil more insights about the entire futurespace by systematically collecting, parsing, visualizing and analysing a large database with elements of the future (futuribles) as they are perceived across the globe. This global ‘futurebase’ allows policy analysts and policymakers to gauge the bandwidth of views on these futuribles across different constituencies (and different languages and cultures). The hope is that such an approach will allow us to transcend some of the widely acknowledged bias problems with many current approaches to foresight. This paper introduces one of the approaches The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies pursuing to move the current debate about foresight for strategic planning in more of a 3.0 direction: the HCSS Metafore approach. The paper briefly presents the main steps in the Metafore research protocol that was used in some recent HCSS work for the Dutch government’s ‘Strategic Monitor’, which tries to anticipate the future in the area of foreign, security and defence policy. The essence of the protocol is that we try to collect a much larger corpus of foresight studies in a particular field than has hitherto been possible and then code these with both manual (for the smaller sets) and semi-automated (for the larger sets) coding tools. The results are then visualized in different ways and analysed. We describe the protocol and provide some illustrative examples. The paper concludes by discussing some of the strengths and weaknesses of such a ‘Metafore’ approach for strategic policymaking.
2014 is the year in which Russia's growing assertiveness morphed into aggression. This report uses some existing and builds a few new datasets in order to chronicle what actually happened during this year.
The policymaking community puts ever more emphasis on basing policy on rigorously collected and curated objective evidence (‘evidence-based policy’). But what is the equivalent for the future of what ‘evidence’ is for the past and present? This paper presents some examples of what we call ‘foresight 3.0’: an attempt to distill more insights about the entire futurespace by systematically collecting, parsing, visualizing and analysing a large database with elements of the future (futuribles) as they are perceived across the globe. This global ‘futurebase’ allows policy analysts and policymakers to gauge the bandwidth of views on these futuribles across different constituencies (and different languages and cultures). The hope is that such an approach will allow us to transcend some of the widely acknowledged bias problems with many current approaches to foresight. This paper introduces one of the approaches the The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies is pursuing to move the current debate about foresight for strategic planning in more of a 3.0 direction: the HCSS Metafore approach. The paper briefly presents the main steps in the Metafore research protocol that was used in some recent HCSS work for the Dutch government’s ‘Strategic Monitor’, which tries to anticipate the future in the area of foreign, security and defense policy. The essence of the protocol is that we try to collect a much larger corpus of foresight studies in a particular field than has hitherto been possible and then code these with both manual (for the smaller sets) and semi-automated (for the larger sets) coding tools. The results are then visualized in different ways and analysed. We describe the protocol and provide some illustrative examples. The paper concludes by discussing some of the strengths and weaknesses of such a ‘Metafore’ approach for strategic policy making.
