Figure - available from: Environmental Research Letters
This content is subject to copyright. Terms and conditions apply.
Projected percentage changes (%) in seasonal soil moisture drought frequency under 1.5 °C (left column), 2 °C (middle column) and 3 °C (right column) global warming levels with respect to the reference period 1971–2000 (rows from top to bottom are for simulations from CMIP5, CMIP5/LSM and CMIP6 respectively). The dotted areas indicate that at least 80% of the models agree on sign of the changes.
Source publication
Seasonal drought occurrences are found to increase across different regions over China under global warming, but with large uncertainties among models. With ten selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models and seven CMIP6 models according to their performances in reproducing historical drought trends (p < 0.1), here...
Similar publications
The frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events may change in response to shifts in the mean and variability of climate, which pose high risks to societies and natural ecosystems. Gridded near-surface temperature, precipitation, and the number of wet days from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset were analyzed for two 30-year...
Under global warming, according to results obtained from offline drought indices driven by projections of general circulation models (GCMs), future droughts in China will worsen but the results are not consistent. We analyzed changes in droughts covering the entire hydrologic cycle using outputs of GCMs of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Proj...
The urbanization process continues worldwide and it is expected that by 2050 two thirds of the global population will live in cities. In parallel to the urbanization process, global warming has increased global surface temperature between 0,8 and 1.5°C since pre-industrial levels. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to the consequences of clima...
This study examines the impacts of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels on the characteristics of four major drought modes over Eastern Africa in the future under two climate forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The droughts were quantified using two drought indices: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standa...
Extreme climate events are becoming increasingly severe owing to global warming. In recent years, the Yalong River has experienced frequent droughts, which has seriously hindered the development of hydropower. Based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) values, this study employed transfer...
Citations
... Importantly, drought can have cascading effects on other socioeconomic sectors, leading to significant economic repercussions (Tabari and Willems 2023). Under the influence of global warming, seasonal droughts have become increasingly prevalent across various regions in China (Chen and Yuan 2021). Southwest China (SWC), a region of critical importance, has experienced frequent drought disasters in recent decades. ...
In recent decades, there has been a notable increase in the frequency and severity of drought events in Southwest China (SWC), which have significantly impacted agriculture and the social economy. Using sea surface temperature (SST) data from the Hadley Centre, daily meteorological drought composite index grid data and ERA5 reanalysis data, we investigate the characteristics of autumn drought in SWC and discuss its possible causes using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The results indicate a distinct ‘Northeast–Southwest’ dipole pattern of autumn drought over SWC in the past decade, which we define as the ‘Chuan‐Yu’‐type drought. A British–Okhotsk Corridor (BOC) pattern Rossby wave train, presenting over Eurasia, is identified as the key factor influencing the ‘Chuan‐Yu’‐type drought in SWC during the autumn. The BOC‐pattern Rossby wave train not only obstructs water vapour transport channels in SWC but also induces anomalous descending motions in the lower to middle troposphere over the region, leading to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Further investigation reveals that North Atlantic dipole SST anomalies trigger the BOC‐pattern Rossby wave train in autumn. The results of the linear baroclinic model sensitivity simulations support the above conclusion. These findings will make valuable contributions to autumn drought prevention and mitigation in SWC.
... This is due to increases in the variability of the total runoff and precipitation from CMIP6 outputs in future periods compared to historical periods, caused by climate change and human activities (see Figure 4), indicating a complex future at the regional scale even if global carbon neutrality targets are achieved. Similar results can be found in other warming-level studies [28,29]. ...
Droughts have a severe impact on the environment and social economy, and predicting their future changes is challenging due to significant uncertainties in climate change and human activities. Many countries have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality to limit global warming; however, few studies have focused on drought changes during the carbon-neutral period. Here, we analyzed the variations in drought characteristics across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) during the carbon-neutral period under two low-emission scenarios from 7 CMIP6 model outputs. The results show that the temperature and precipitation will increase significantly during the 2015–2100 period under both SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios. Compared to the historical period (1979–2014), the hydrological drought frequency is projected to decrease by 15.5% (13.0–18.1%), while drought severity is expected to increase by 14.4% (13.2–15.7%) during the carbon-neutral period. Meteorological droughts exhibit a similar changing trend, although the results vary between different regions. In general, more severe hydrological droughts may occur in the southern YRB in the carbon-neutral period under low-emission scenarios. This study has implications for future drought mitigation within the Yellow River Basin.
... Although the drought situation in some areas has improved and the drought characteristics have not changed significantly compared with historical periods, the joint distribution of drought duration and drought intensity showed that overall drought in Chinese mainland is still intensifying (Fig. 9). Previous studies based on the CMIP5 (Xin et al., 2020) and CMIP6 (Chen and Yuan, 2021) models for predicting future drought characteristics in Chinese mainland show that the decrease in precipitation and the increase in evapotranspiration will lead to more frequent and severe future drought events in Chinese mainland. It is necessary to study PELD in Chinese under the background of aggravated drought, which is of great significance to its social and economic development. ...
Economic loss assessment of drought disaster (ELDA) plays an important supporting role in government emergency management decision-making and the sustainable development of national economy. Previous studies lack projected ELDA for composite drought under the background of global warming, and the evaluation models used have problems such as low calculation efficiency and poor universality. In order to explore the overall economic impact of composite drought disaster in Chinese mainland, an economic loss assessment model of drought disaster (ELDAM) was constructed based on the occurrence process and loss mechanism of drought. Under different global warming levels (GWLs), economic loss of drought disaster (ELD) in Chinese mainland increases with the intensification of drought. When the temperature rise reaches 4 °C, the ELD under the static scenario and the dynamic scenario that considers the future national economic development level can reach 164.00 ± 67.58 and 86.84 ± 38.06 billion USD2015. They only account for 0.014 ± 0.006% and 0.007 ± 0.003% of the projected gross domestic product (GDP), which is much lower than the reference period (2003–2018, 0.12%). The future economic impact of drought in Chinese mainland shows a downward trend against the background of intensifying droughts, but the economic impact of drought cannot be ignored under GWLs. ELDAM can not only be used to estimate ELD from historical drought disasters, but can also be combined with climate predictions to provide advance estimates of ELD, providing a reliable theoretical basis for strengthening regional drought prevention and resistance capabilities.
... Some limited projections of drought in China based on CMIP6 models have also been carried out in recent years (e.g., Shi et al., 2023;Su et al., 2021). Less frequent seasonal soil moisture droughts over China have been projected by CMIP6 models than that by CMIP5 models (Chen & Yuan, 2021). By using 12 CMIP6 models and based on the PDSI, Li et al. (2020) showed a rapid increase in drought severity in Northwest China during 2015-2099 under SSP2-4.5 andSSP5-8.5. ...
Xinjiang, located in Northwest China, is a typical arid and semiarid region. In this region, frequent droughts have caused great losses in agricultural production and social economy. Therefore, changes in drought over Xinjiang have attracted considerable attention. This study projects the drought changes over Xinjiang during the 21st century, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is applied to measure drought variation. After quantitatively evaluating the performance of 25 CMIP6 models in annual and seasonal precipitation and evapotranspiration in Xinjiang during 1995–2014, we select 13 preferred models for projection. The projection results show significant decreasing trends in annual SPEI during 2021–2100 in Xinjiang, with the trends of −0.1/10a, −0.1/10a and −0.2/10a under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. For seasons, the projected decreasing trends of SPEI in summer, autumn and spring are greater than that in winter. Relative to 1995–2014, during 2081–2100, moderate and severe droughts are projected to occupy a major increase in drought areas in Xinjiang under the three scenarios. In addition, drought tends to become more frequent and intense and last longer especially under higher scenarios. Under SSP5‐8.5, the projected regionally averaged drought frequency, intensity and duration increase by 15%, 8% and 1 month at the end of the 21st century. On the whole, the intermodel uncertainties of the projected changes in drought over Xinjiang increase with time in each emission. The findings of this study can provide information for decision makers to develop drought adaptation measures.
... Due to climate models' structural uncertainties, complexity in the earth-atmosphere systems and coarse resolution of the global circulation models (GCM), the application of their outputs is limited to some extent [11]. NASA implemented the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) project to provide downscaled historical and future projections for the period 1950 to 2100, based on CMIP6 models [12]. ...
Climate change is a threat to mining and other industries, especially those involving water supply and management, by inducing or amplifying some climatic parameters such as changes in precipitation regimes and temperature extremes. Using the latest NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 datasets, this study quantifies the level of climate change that may affect the development of two mine sites (site 1 and site 2) in north–east Kazakhstan. The study analyses the daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature a of a number of global circulation models (GCM) over three future time periods, the 2040s, 2060s, and 2080s, under two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, SSP245 and SSP585, against the baseline period 1981–2014. The analyses reveal that: (1) both maximum and minimum temperature will increase under both SSP in those time periods, with the rate of change for minimum temperature being higher than maximum temperature. Minimum temperature, for example, will increase by 2.2 and 2.7 °C under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively, over the 2040s period at both sites; (2) the mean annual precipitation will increase by an average rate of 7% and 10.5% in the 2040s for SSP245 and 17.5% and 7.5% for SSP585 in the 2080s at site 1 and site 2, respectively. It is also observed that summer months will experience drier condition whilst all other months will increase in precipitation; (3) the values of 24 h precipitation with a 10 year return period will also increase under both SSP scenarios and future time periods for most of the studied GCM and at both mine sites. For instance, over the near future period, a 6.9% and 2.8% increase in 10 year 24 h precipitation is expected to happen over site 1 and site 2, respectively, under SSP245. These predicted changes should be considered as design criteria adjustments for projected water supply and water management structures.
... Due to climate models' structural uncertainties, complexity in earth-atmosphere systems and coarse resolution of the global circulation models (GCM), the application of their outputs is limited to some extent [8]. NASA implemented the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) project to provide downscaled historical and future projections for the period 1950 to 2100 based on CMIP6 models [9]. ...
Climate change is a threat to mining and other industries, especially those involving water supply and management by inducing or amplifying some climatic parameters such as changes in precipitation regimes and temperature extremes. Using the latest NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 datasets, this study quantifies the level of climate change that may affect the development of two mine sites (Site1 and Site2) in northeast Kazakhstan. The study analyses the daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature a of a number of global circulation models (GCM) over three future time periods, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s, under two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, SSP245 and SSP585, against the baseline period 1981- 2014. The analyses revealed that: (1) Both maximum and minimum temperature will increase under both SSP in those time periods, with the rate of change for minimum temperature being higher than maximum temperature. (2) The mean annual precipitation will increase by an average rate of 7% and 10.5% in 2040s for SSP245 and 17.5% and 7.5% for SSP585 in 2080s at Site1 and Site2, respectively. It is also observed that summer months will experience drier condition whilst all other months will increase in precipitation. (3) The values of 24-hour precipitation with 10-year return period will also increase under both SSP scenarios and future time periods for most of the studied GCM and at both mine sites. These predicted changes should be considered as design criteria adjustments for project water supply and water management structures.
... Drought is estimated to have killed 11.73 million people between 1900 and 2021, with economic losses ranging from USD 6 billion to USD 8 billion per year, which is far worse than any other disaster [6][7][8][9][10]. Due to climate change, extreme hydrological events, such as drought, are expected to become more frequent [11][12][13][14][15]. Therefore, it is paramount to understand how drought is expected to change in different climate change scenarios to prepare timely warning and mitigation strategies. ...
Due to the complex coupling between drought and climatic factors, the future drought conditions that might occur under climate change is still unclear. In this research, we used the daily SPEI algorithm to project global drought conditions during 2016–2100 based on the data from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We also employed partial correlation analysis to explore the influence of climate factors on drought. Our analyses show the following: (1) Drought conditions projected by CMIP6 under different models are similar; however, they can vary widely across regions. (2) According to the MK trend test, drought conditions in most regions around the world are expected to become increasingly severe in the future, and this trend is significant. (3) Based on the results of the partial correlation analysis results, it is understood that drought events in most regions worldwide are primarily driven by precipitation. This study contributes to the discussion of projecting future drought conditions and expands the application by utilizing the state−of−the−art CMIP6 climate models and scenarios.Highlight
... Besides the long-trend of climate change effects, this study also highlighted the growing control of climate variations on the inter-annual variability of GWDR, especially in regions with significant groundwater depletion. Because future extreme events (e.g., flood and drought) would become more frequent (S. Chen & Yuan, 2021;Dilley, 2005;Hirabayashi et al., 2013;Yuan et al., 2019), inter-annual variability of GWDR is expected to increase. Thus, water managers must take into account climate variations when selecting and designing robust adaptation strategies to cope with groundwater depletion problems under changing environment (Veldkamp et al., 2015). ...
Many countries have experienced the increase of groundwater depletion rate (GWDR), posing great challenges to the environment and society. Given the slow variation of groundwater, long‐term estimation of GWDR at high‐resolution is critical for sustainable managements of regional water resources and risks of hydrological extremes in a changing climate. However, limited in‐situ and satellite observations and uncertainties from hydrological model simulations prohibit reliable estimation of the long‐term trend and inter‐annual variation of GWDR. Using survey‐based water withdrawal and water availability datasets, this study provided a spatially distributed estimation of annual GWDR over China at the 0.25° × 0.25° grid scale for the period 1965–2016 using a flux‐based approach. The estimated GWDR has higher spatial resolution and longer temporal coverage than previous products. With the newly compiled data, we found that groundwater over China was depleted at an average rate of 20.4 km³ year⁻¹ during 1965–2016, especially in the arid and semi‐arid areas of northern China. The GWDR showed a significant increasing trend during 1965–2016, but such trend slowed down from 0.66 km³ year⁻¹ during 1965–2001 to 0.06 km³ year⁻¹ during 2001–2016, which was mainly attributed to the deceleration in human water withdrawal. Further analysis showed that over 40% of the inter‐annual variability of GWDR could be explained by precipitation variability, and the climate control increased over time. This study suggested a growing control of climate variations on GWDR over China as the human water withdrawal has been decelerating, and a need for climate change adaptation for a sustainable groundwater management.
... Using 25 CMIP6 models, Tabari and Willems (2022) found that drought severity in the Mediterranean in a 3 • C warming world is 3.2 (1.8) times larger than those in a 1.5 • C (2 • C) warming world. Chen and Yuan (2021) found that relative to the reference period of 1971-2000, CMIP6-projected drought frequency in China would increase by 18%, 19%, and 25% for global warming levels of 1.5 • C, 2 • C, and 3 • C, respectively. Naumann et al. (2018) discovered that the global average drought duration during the reference period of 1976-2005, 1.5 • C, 2 • C, and 3 • C warming periods are 7, 9, 11, and 18 months, respectively. ...
... of CMIP6 to reproduce climate change, but the coarser spatial resolution limits its application to some extent (Eyring et al. 2016;Yang et al. 2020;Chen & Yuan 2021). To portray the impacts of climate change in a more granular way, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) implemented the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections 6) (Thrasher et al. 2022). ...
Global climate models (GCMs) are the state-of-the-art tool for understanding climate change and predicting future. However, little research has been reported on the latest NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 product in China. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the simulated performance and drought capture utility of the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 over China. First, the simulation skills of the 16 GCMs in NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 was evaluated by the 'DISO', a big data evaluation method. Second, the DISO framework for drought identification was constructed by coupling the Correlation Coefficient (CC), False Alarm Rate (FAR) and Probability of Detection (POD). Then, it was combined with SPI and SPEI to evaluate the drought detection capability of NEX-GDPD-CMIP6. The result shows that: (1) NEX-GDPD-CMIP6 can reproduce the spatial distribution pattern of historical precipitation and temperature, which performs well in simulating warming trend but fails to capture precipitation's fluctuation characteristics. (2) The best performing model in precipitation is ACCESS-CM2 (DISO 1.630) and in temperature is CESM2 (DISO 3.246). (3) The 16MME performs better than the best single model, indicating that multi-model ensemble can effectively reduce the uncertainty inherent in models. (4) The SPEI calculated by 16MME identifying drought well in arid, while SPI is recommended for other climate classifications of China.
HIGHLIGHTS
Sixteen multi-mode ensembles outperform the best-performing single climate model.;
Enlighteningly, CC, FAR and POD are coupled to construct a DISO framework for assessing drought identification capabilities.;
The drought identification ability between the SPEI and the SPI calculated from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 over China varies greatly, with the SPEI performing well in an arid region and inferior to the SPI over other climate classifications.;
