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In this paper, we study the use of wheat land fallow production systems as a climate change adaptation strategy. Using data from the U.S. Census of Agriculture, we find that fallow is an important adaption strategy for wheat farms in the U.S. Pacific Northwest region. In particular, we find that a warmer and wetter climate increases the share of fa...
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... Storage of water can be useful in the southeast part of the country, as evidenced by Vico et al. (2020). Apart from irrigation, other studies under this theme evaluated a variety of adaptation actions, such as crop rotations (e.g., Wang et al. 2021), cover crops (e.g., Yoder et al. 2021), fallowing (e.g., Zhang et al. 2017), land leasing (e.g., Zhang et al. 2018), crop switching (e.g., Rising & Devineni 2020), and nutrient best management practices (e.g., Doran et al. 2020). Some studies considered multiple adaptation actions together as well. ...
... Northwest Wheat -Diversification of cropping systems by partial replacement of winter wheat with other winter crops such as winter peas and canola should be feasible, depending on economics, replacing spring with winter crops in current rotations appears only feasible in high precipitation locations of the inland Pacific Northwest (Stockle et al. 2018) Land leasing Northwest General -Analyzing medium and high greenhouse gas emission-based climate projections, it is predicted that, by 2050, leased acreage will decline by 23% and 29% . (Frisvold et al. 2016, Olen et al. 2016, Malek et al. 2018, 2020, Zhang et al. 2017, 2018, Oregon (Frisvold et al. 2016, Olen et al. 2016, Malek et al. 2020, Zhang et al. 2017, 2018, Idaho (Frisvold et al. 2016, Malek et al. 2020, Zhang et al. 2017, 2018, Montana (Lauffenburger et al. 2022) Southwest: California (Scanlon et al. 2012), Colorado (Ko et al. 2012, Ward 2014, Cody 2018, van der Pol et al. 2022, New Mexico (Skaggs et al. 2005, Ward 2014, Ward and Crawford 2016 ...
... Northwest Wheat -Diversification of cropping systems by partial replacement of winter wheat with other winter crops such as winter peas and canola should be feasible, depending on economics, replacing spring with winter crops in current rotations appears only feasible in high precipitation locations of the inland Pacific Northwest (Stockle et al. 2018) Land leasing Northwest General -Analyzing medium and high greenhouse gas emission-based climate projections, it is predicted that, by 2050, leased acreage will decline by 23% and 29% . (Frisvold et al. 2016, Olen et al. 2016, Malek et al. 2018, 2020, Zhang et al. 2017, 2018, Oregon (Frisvold et al. 2016, Olen et al. 2016, Malek et al. 2020, Zhang et al. 2017, 2018, Idaho (Frisvold et al. 2016, Malek et al. 2020, Zhang et al. 2017, 2018, Montana (Lauffenburger et al. 2022) Southwest: California (Scanlon et al. 2012), Colorado (Ko et al. 2012, Ward 2014, Cody 2018, van der Pol et al. 2022, New Mexico (Skaggs et al. 2005, Ward 2014, Ward and Crawford 2016 ...
Farmers in the US are adopting a range of strategies to deal with climate change impacts, from changing planting dates to using sophisticated technologies. Studies on farmers’ adaptation in US agriculture focus on a variety of topics and provide an understanding of how farmers adapt to climate change impacts, which adaptation strategies offer better outcomes, and what challenges need to be addressed for effective adaptations. Nevertheless, we lack a comprehensive view of adaptation studies focusing on US farmers’ adaptations. A review of the adaptation studies in US agriculture will help us to understand current research trends and realize future research potential. To fulfill this gap, this study systematically reviewed peer-reviewed studies on adaptation to climate change in US agriculture. A systematic search on the Web of Science and Google Scholar platforms generated 95 articles for final review. These studies were categorized under five themes based on their topical relevance: i) reporting on-farm adaptations, ii) exploring potential adaptations, iii) evaluating specific adaptations, iv) challenges of adaptations, and v) perceptions toward adaptations. A skewed distribution of studies under these themes has been observed; a majority of the studies focused on evaluating specific adaptations (47%) followed by exploring potential adaptations (22%), while reporting on-farm adaptations (17%), challenges of adaptations (6%), and perception towards adaptations (8%) received less attention. In this article, key findings under each theme were presented and some areas for future research focus were broadly discussed. These findings indicate the need for more attention to documenting on-farm adaptation strategies and the associated challenges while emphasizing other themes.
... Longer fallow periods were adopted by about 1% of the farmers interviewed. This practice allows moisture to accumulate as a means of adapting to dry conditions (Zhang et al., 2017). Finally, the use of native varieties and the combination of organic and mineral fertilizers were both adopted by about 0.3% of the sampled farmers. ...
In developing countries, the adoption of effective climate change adaptation strategies can safeguard rural communities’ livelihoods. Using survey data collected in Guinea in 2012, the paper investigates the factors affecting households’ strategies to face adverse climate change impacts. A three‐step methodology is applied: (1) assessment of the magnitude of real climatic trends in the study area together with farmers’ perception of climate change; (2) identification of physical and socioeconomic variables influencing farmers’ adaptation propensity; and (3) analysis of factors affecting adaptation choices, including climate change perception. The climatic data analysis confirms increase in minimum and maximum temperature trends, increase in annual average millimeters of rain, and decrease in average number of storms per year. Farmers’ perception of climate change turned out to be aligned with historical climatic trends and represents an important determinant for the adoption of adaptation strategies. The regression model results suggest that the propensity to adapt is positively influenced by the level of education and a limited access to water resources and agricultural inputs, forcing households to adopt new cropping calendars. Effective policy action should consider different areas, including climate change awareness, education, access to natural and physical assets, and availability of economic resources to local communities.
... Temperature datasets matched more closely than the precipitation datasets, and high monthly rainfall values were slightly overestimated by some GCMs in case of Bushland and Halfway. MACA dataset was also directly used in several other published climate change impact studies on crop production in the Southwestern US , Southeast US (Cammarano and Tian, 2018), and US Pacific Northwest Karimi et al., 2018;Kerr et al., 2018;Stöckle et al., Zhang et al., 2017). ...
Adaptation measures are required to enhance climate change resilience of agricultural systems and reduce risks associated with climate change at both regional and global scales. The Texas High Plains is a semi-arid region that faces major challenges from climate change risks and dwindling groundwater supply from the exhaustible Ogallala Aquifer for sustaining irrigated agriculture. The overall goal of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change on yield and water use of grain sorghum and identify optimum climate change adaptation strategies for three study sites in the Texas High Plains. Future climate data projected by nine Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gas emissions (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) were used as input for the DSSAT CSM-CERES-Sorghum model. The climate change adaptation strategies were designed by modifying crop genotype parameters to incorporate drought tolerance, heat tolerance, high yield potential, and long maturity traits. Irrigated and dryland grain sorghum yield and irrigation water use were projected to decrease at varying percentages at the study sites in the future. On an average (of 9 GCMs), irrigated grain sorghum yield is expected to decrease by 5–13 % and 16–27 % by mid-century (2036–2065) and late-century (2066–2095), respectively under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline (1976–2005). The irrigation water use is expected to decrease by 7–9% and 14–16 % by the mid-century and late-century, respectively. Among the adaptation strategies, an ideotype with high yield potential trait (10 % higher partitioning to the panicle, radiation use efficiency, and relative leaf size than the reference cultivar) resulted in maximum grain sorghum yield gains in the future under both irrigated (6.9 %–17.1 %) and dryland (7.5 %–17.1 %) conditions, when compared to the reference cultivar. Enhancing drought tolerance by increasing root density at different soil depths also resulted in a significantly higher irrigated grain sorghum yield than the reference cultivar. A longer maturity cultivar will likely increase irrigation water use and, therefore, is not recommended for water limited conditions.
... These GCM data have been corrected for bias and were statistically downscaled using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructive Analogs (MACA) technique (Abatzoglou and Brown, 2012). Data from these GCMs have been used in many other studies on climate change impacts on agricultural crops within the U.S. (Araya et al., 2017;Zhang et al., 2017;Karimi et al., 2018) and internationally (Amouzou et al., 2018;Srivastava et al., 2018). Weather information (maximum and minimum air temperatures, precipitation, wind speed, solar radiation, and relative humidity) for the study location were obtained daily from each GCM. ...
Highlights
Cotton yield was reduced significantly under projected future climate conditions for the Arizona low desert (ALD). Of all the weather variables, yield reduction was primarily due to projected increases in daily maximum and minimum air temperatures.
Cotton reproductive stages were more susceptible to heat stress than vegetative stages. Projected increases in air temperature may result in a slight increase in cotton growth or biomass production; however, heat stress significantly reduced fruit retention, leading to lower boll number and yield.
Although future increases in CO 2 may improve plant growth and productivity, the potential benefit of CO 2 fertilization on cotton growth and yield in the ALD was offset by the projected increase in air temperature.
The projected average seasonal irrigation requirement increased by at least 10%. This suggests that greater demand for freshwater withdrawal for agriculture can be expected in the future. Therefore, given the projected change in future climate, cotton cultivars tolerant of longer periods of high air temperature, changes in planting dates, and improved management practices for higher water productivity are critical needs for sustainable cotton production in the ALD.
Abstract . Cotton is an important crop in Arizona, with a total cash value of approximately $200 million for fiber and cottonseed in 2018. In recent years, heat stress from increasing air temperature has reduced cotton productivity in the Arizona low desert (ALD); however, the effects of future climate on ALD cotton production have not been studied. In this study, the DSSAT CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model was used to simulate the effects of future climate on cotton growth, yield, and water use in the ALD area. Projected climate forcings for the ALD were obtained from nine global climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Cotton growth, yield, and water use were simulated for mid-century (2036 to 2065) and late century (2066 to 2095) and compared to the baseline (1980 to 2005). Results indicated that seed cotton yield was reduced by at least 40% and 51% by mid-century and late century, respectively, compared to the baseline. Of all the weather variables, the seasonal average maximum (R2 = 0.72) and minimum (R2 = 0.80) air temperatures were most correlated with yield reductions. Under the future climate conditions of the ALD, cotton growth or biomass accumulation slightly increased compared to the baseline. Irrigation requirements in the ALD increased by at least 10% and 14% by mid-century and late century, respectively. Increases in irrigation requirements were due to an increase in crop water use; hence, greater demand for freshwater withdrawal for agricultural purposes is anticipated in the future. Therefore, cotton cultivars that are tolerant of long periods of high air temperature and improved management practices that promote efficient crop water use are critical for future sustainability of cotton production in the ALD. Keywords: . Arid region, CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton, Future climate, Gossypium hirsutum L., Heat stress, Irrigation demand.
... Daily weather data projected by nine global climate models (GCMs) (table 1), which were bias-corrected and statistically downscaled using the multivariate adaptive constructed analogs (MACA) technique (Abatzoglou and Brown, 2012) with the training dataset of Abatzoglou (2013), were used in this study. This dataset has been used in multiple climate change studies in the U.S. (Zhang et al., 2017;Cammarano and Tian, 2018;Elias et al., 2018;Karimi et al., 2018). The climate variables in this dataset include minimum and maximum temperature (°C), precipitation (mm), solar radiation (MJ m -2 ), wind speed (m s -1 ), and relative humidity (%). ...
Keywords: CERES-Sorghum, Critical growth stages, Crop yield, Global climate model, Irrigation demand, Soil water depletion.
Highlights Keywords: CERES-Sorghum, Critical growth stages, Crop yield, Global climate model, Irrigation demand, Soil water depletion.
Irrigated grain sorghum yield and irrigation water use decreased under climate change. Keywords: CERES-Sorghum, Critical growth stages, Crop yield, Global climate model, Irrigation demand, Soil water depletion.
Increase in growing season temperature beyond 26°C resulted in a sharp decline in grain sorghum yield. Keywords: CERES-Sorghum, Critical growth stages, Crop yield, Global climate model, Irrigation demand, Soil water depletion.
Irrigating during early reproductive stages resulted in the most efficient use of limited water. Keywords: CERES-Sorghum, Critical growth stages, Crop yield, Global climate model, Irrigation demand, Soil water depletion.
Irrigating to replenish soil water to 80% of field capacity was found suitable for both current and future climates. Keywords: CERES-Sorghum, Critical growth stages, Crop yield, Global climate model, Irrigation demand, Soil water depletion.
Groundwater overdraft from the Ogallala Aquifer for irrigation use and anticipated climate change impacts pose major threats to the sustainability of agriculture in the Texas High Plains (THP) region. In this study, the DSSAT-CSM-CERES-Sorghum model was used to simulate climate change impacts on grain sorghum production under full and deficit irrigation strategies and suggest optimal deficit irrigation strategies. Two irrigation strategies were designed based on (1) crop growth stage and (2) soil water deficit. For the first strategy, seven deficit irrigation scenarios and one full irrigation scenario were simulated: three scenarios with a single 100 mm irrigation scheduled between panicle initiation and boot (T1), between boot and early grain filling (T2), and between early and late grain filling (T3) growth stages; three 200 mm irrigation treatments with combinations of T1 and T2 (T4), T1 and T3 (T5), and T2 and T3 (T6); one 300 mm irrigation scenario (T7) that was a combination of T1, T2, and T3; and a full irrigation scenario (T8) in which irrigation was applied throughout the growing season to maintain at least 50% of plant-available water in the top 30 cm soil profile. For the second strategy, the irrigation schedule obtained from auto-irrigation (T8) was mimicked to create a full irrigation scenario (I100) and six deficit irrigation scenarios. In the deficit irrigation scenarios, water was applied on the same dates as scenario I100; however, the irrigation amounts of scenario I100 were reduced by 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, and 60% to create deficit irrigation scenarios I90, I80, I70, I60, I50, and I40, respectively. Projected climate forcings were drawn from nine global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Climate change analysis indicated that grain sorghum yield under full irrigation was expected to be reduced by 5% by mid-century (2036 to 2065) and by 15% by late-century (2066 to 2095) under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline period (1976 to 2005). Simulated future irrigation water demand of grain sorghum was reduced due to the shorter growing season and improved dry matter- and yield-transpiration productivity, likely due to CO 2 fertilization. Based on the simulated grain sorghum yield and irrigation water use efficiency, the most efficient use of limited irrigation was achieved by applying irrigation during the early reproductive stages of grain sorghum (panicle initiation through early grain filling). A 20% deficit irrigation scenario was found to be optimal for current and future conditions because it was more water use efficient than full irrigation with a minor yield reduction of <11%. In summary, these results indicated that strategic planning of when and how much to irrigate could help in getting the most out of limited irrigation. Keywords: CERES-Sorghum, Critical growth stages, Crop yield, Global climate model, Irrigation demand, Soil water depletion.
... The large increase in the simulated future percolation also emphasized that there was an increase in the precipitation duration projected by the GCMs. Zhang et al. (2017) and others suggested that fallow is a possible adaptation strategy for the climate change, where the agricultural land is left idle to accumulate soil moisture and recharge groundwater as a means of adapting to future dry conditions (Bradshaw et al., 2004;Howden et al., 2007;Verchot et al., 2007). Their climate change study also found future climate caused producers to shift cropland into fallow to deal with the decrease in future precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. ...
Modeling the effects of climate change on hydrology and crop yield provides opportunities for choosing appropriate crops for adapting to climate change. In this study, climate change impacts on irrigated corn and sorghum, dryland (rainfed) sorghum, and continuous fallow in the Northern High Plains of Texas were evaluated using an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model equipped with management allowed depletion (MAD) irrigation scheduling. Projected climate data (2020-2099) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) of 19 General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used. Climate data were divided into four 20-year periods of near future (2020-2039), middle (2040-2059), late (2060-2079), and end (2080-2099) of the 21st century under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). For irrigated corn, median annual crop evapotranspiration (ET) and irrigation decreased by 8%-25% and 15%-42%, respectively, under the climate change scenarios compared to the historical period (2001-2010). The median yield was reduced by 3%-22% with exponentially decreases in the latter half of the 21st century. For sorghum, the reduction of median annual crop ET ranged from 6%-27%. However, the decline in the median annual irrigation was within 15%, except for the 2060-2079 and 2080-2099 periods under RCP 8.5 scenarios with 30% and 49% reductions in median annual irrigation. The median irrigated sorghum yield declined by 6%-42%. The median annual crop ET of dryland sorghum decreased by 10%-16%. The reduction in median yield was within 10% of the historical dryland sorghum yield. The decrease in median annual evaporation varied from 15%-23% under future continuous fallow conditions. The elevated CO2 level of future climate scenarios was the primary factor for the decrease in the ET and irrigation. The reduction in future crop yield was mainly attributed to the shortening of the maturity period caused by increased future temperature.
Climate change increases the vulnerability of agrosystems to soil degradation and reduces the effectiveness of traditional soil restoration options. The implementation of some practices need to be readjusted due to steadily increasing temperature and lowering precipitation. For farmers, the best practice found, should have the potential to achieve maximum sustainable levels of soil productivity in the context of climate change. A study was conducted in SouthWest Niger to investigate the use of the suitable practice, through (i) a meta-analysis of case studies, (ii) using field survey and (iii) by using AquaCrop model. Results showed that the effects of the association zaï þ mulch on crop yield was up to 2 times higher than control plots depending on climate projections scenario RCP 8.5 under which carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentrations are projected to reach 936 ppm by 2100. The practice appeared to be an interesting option for enhancing crop productivity in a context of climate change. Concerning its ability, it offers the best prospects to reverse soil degradation in the study area. In addition, the simulation showed that this strategy was suitable for timely sowing and therefore confirmed scholars and farmers views. Furthermore, this practice is relatively more effective compared to the others practices. These results show that association zaï þ mulch could be considered as the best practice that can participate to a successful adaptation to reduce risk from climate change at the same time by reducing the vulnerability of farmers in Southwest of Niger for now and even for the future.
