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Predicted probability of NDP vote by minority feeling thermometer and time period (full model); 95% confidence intervals.
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This article examines the effect of racial attitudes on the electoral performance of the New Democratic Party (NDP). Since 2017, the NDP has been led by Jagmeet Singh, the first non-white leader of a nationally competitive Canadian political party. Voters’ racial attitudes and the race of party leaders have a significant effect on vote choice in th...
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... get a better understanding of how racial attitudes affected vote choice for the NDP in 2019 and 2021, we can examine Figure 3. Given that the coefficients in Table 1 present logistic regression coefficients relative to a baseline of vote choice for the Liberal Party, it can be challenging to assess the hypothesized relationship of interest without further examination of the model results. ...
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... that the coefficients in Table 1 present logistic regression coefficients relative to a baseline of vote choice for the Liberal Party, it can be challenging to assess the hypothesized relationship of interest without further examination of the model results. Figure 3 shows the predicted probability of voters supporting the NDP in their local riding in 2019/2021 versus 2004-2015 (excluding 2011). 12 Unlike the coefficients reported in Table 1, the predicted probabilities shown in Figure 3 and in the subsequent figures in this article are not relative to a baseline of Liberal Party vote choice. ...
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... 3 shows the predicted probability of voters supporting the NDP in their local riding in 2019/2021 versus 2004-2015 (excluding 2011). 12 Unlike the coefficients reported in Table 1, the predicted probabilities shown in Figure 3 and in the subsequent figures in this article are not relative to a baseline of Liberal Party vote choice. In the 2019/2021 elections, as voters' feelings toward minorities become more positive, their likelihood of voting for the NDP increases (confirming H1a). ...
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... Analysis in Quebec alone (Table 9 and Figure 7 in the supplementary material) reveals a somewhat, though not altogether, distinct story. As in the national analysis shown in Figure 3, voters in Quebec were less (more) likely to support the NDP when they had very cold (warm) feelings toward racial minorities. Unlike in the national analysis, this effect is not contingent on period, with racial attitudes conditioning Quebec voters' NDP support in the 2004-2015 elections as well. ...
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... relationship presented in Figure 3 is not sensitive to model specification. Figure 4 shows corresponding predicted plots for the naive and demos only models. ...
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... 4 shows corresponding predicted plots for the naive and demos only models. As we can see, the relationship between racial attitudes and vote choice in the 2004-2015 elections and the 2019-2021 elections is similar, though differences in NDP vote choice likelihood between election periods among those with the most negative sentiments toward racial minorities are not statistically distinct at the 95 per cent level when party identification and region are not accounted for (as they are in the full model shown in Figure 3). As we might expect, given the predictive power of party identification (see column three of Table 1), the effect of feelings toward racial minorities on vote choice is greater in both pre-and post-2019 periods when party identification is omitted. ...
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... Aside from the use of this new measure in lieu of the minority feeling thermometer, the control variables included to predict vote choice are specified identically and all included. As we can see across partisan vote choice categories, the results closely parallel the findings using the minority feeling thermometer presented in Figure 3 and Figure 5. Once again, the results suggest that the findings presented here are robust to alternate measures of attitudes toward racial minorities. ...
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... This modelling choice was made based on the Liberals being the largest party by self-identification in the pooled sample. The predicted probability probabilities of party support shown in Figures 3 through 8 are not affected by the choice of which party is used as the baseline vote choice category in the multinomial logistic regression. 12 All predicted probability plots in the article and supplementary material show 95 per cent confidence levels. ...
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Citations
... Since then, there have been increasing efforts to understand the ways in which race is important in Canadian politics. Among other work, scholarship has highlighted how ethnic minorities are increasingly reliable partisans for the Liberals (Gidengil et al., 2012), that those who are resentful towards Indigenous peoples in Canada are more likely to vote Conservative (Beauvais and Stolle, 2022), and that colder feelings towards ethnic minorities are associated with lower support for the NDP (Hale, 2023). ...
... Recent work by Hale (2023) analyzes the effect of racial attitudes on electoral support for the federal NDP under the leadership of Jagmeet Singh, finding that colder feelings towards ethnic minorities are associated with a decreased likelihood of supporting the NDP in both the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Bouchard (2022) finds that Singh's candidacy was more negatively perceived in Quebec, but that it also led to an increase in affinity-voting for the NDP by Sikh Canadians. ...
... Recent Canadian studies have begun to look at racial politics more closely. Important work has shown how nonwhite voters have an affinity for supporting their own ethnocultural group (Besco, 2015;, colder feelings towards ethnic minorities were associated with decreased likelihood of supporting the NDP in 2019 and 2021 federal elections (Hale, 2023), and white identity and anti-Indigenous resentment are associated with voting for the Conservative Party (Beauvais and Stolle, 2022). This article builds on past work by examining the importance of white racial identity, racial resentment and nonwhite racial affect in Canada from a comparative perspective. ...
The political importance of race has historically received limited attention across Canadian behavioural scholarship. Building on more recent work, this article comparatively examines the prevalence and effects of white identity and racial attitudes between white Canadians and Americans by leveraging original survey data and a novel conjoint experiment. This article presents several major findings. First, on average, white Canadians express lower levels of racial identity and racial resentment than white Americans, but more similar levels of racial affect. Second, experimental evidence shows that white Americans are more inclined to penalize nonwhite political candidates than Canadians. Third, white identity and racial resentment are strongly correlated with right-wing voting and partisanship in both Canada and the United States, but the magnitude of effects is greater among Americans. Race continues to be of greater political importance in the United States, but it is far from an irrelevant factor in Canada.
... One very important divide in Canadian politics and voting behavior concerns the division between voters in Quebec and those in other Canadian provinces, which relates to the fact that the issue of Quebec independence influences the vote in Quebec and shapes support for the regionalist Bloc Québécois party (Daoust and Gareau-Paquette 2023;Nadeau and Bélanger 2012). Given the importance of this divide, scholars of voting behavior in Quebec regularly subset the data and analyze voting behavior in Quebec and in the other Canadian provinces separately (for recent examples, see Hale 2023;Polacko et al. 2022;Rivard and Lockhart 2022). We take this divide into account and explore the possibility that the patterns in support for women candidates, and heterogeneity in those effects, could differ between respondents in Quebec and in other Canadian provinces. ...
While the number of women standing as candidates in federal elections in Canada has surged, it is unclear how voters respond to the increased presence of women in politics. In this paper, we study who votes for women candidates in four recent federal elections. Using Canadian Election Study data and biographical information on candidates for the 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2021 federal elections, we examine the impact of the presence of women candidates on voting in Canadian elections. Leveraging the individual-level nature of our data, we also explore heterogeneity in voting for women candidates, with specific attention to patterns of gender affinity voting, and the moderating effects of gender consciousness and gender attitudes on voting for women. Our findings are similar to previous work in failing to show much evidence of an electoral disadvantage for women candidates. We also find very little evidence of heterogeneity in this basic null effect in terms of voters’ gender or their gender attitudes.
