Table 2 - uploaded by Joël Cariolle
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Because of shared norms of ethics, trust, and coordination prevailing in a given society or a social group, corrupt micro-level decisions are related to each other. In micro empirical analysis, this interdependence of corruption decisions can be addressed through the hierarchical modelling of corruption data. Exploiting a baseline sample of 34,358...
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... Cariolle [6] has suggested multilevel framework for esti mation of corruption that considers the economic and human development levels, the size of governments, trade openness, and democracy. ...
Purpose.Development of a scientific and methodological approach to the identification of the most impactful determinants on corruption using multivariate adaptive regression splines. Methodology. Methodological tools of the research methods are comparison, grouping, bibliometric analysis, and multivariate adaptive regression splines in the form of piecewise linear functions. Findings. Systematization of the literary sources and approaches for factors influencing corruption indicates that most empirical studies are based on using panel data. Panel data allows you to insert general patterns, but does not consider the patterns of the national economy. For the study on corruption in Ukraine, 15 influencing factors were selected, characterizing the institutional, economic and social environment. Based on the constructed MAR Spline models, three regression equations were obtained that describe the linear dependence of the level of corruption in governance on the selected factors. The paper found that the relevant factors influencing corruption in Ukraine are: tax burden, general government final consumption expenditure, average monthly wage in Governance and rule of law. Originality.The proposed approach makes it possible to determine the dynamics of the degree of factor influence on the level of corruption in the country. The paper defines the threshold values of statistically significant indicators at which the maximum degree of correlation with the corruption perception index is achieved. Practical value.The regularities between the level of corruption and economic, institutional and social factors revealed by the research results can be used in the development of tools to fight corruption in Ukraine. The formation of an effective anti-corruption system will strengthen financial stability in the country and increase the level of public trust in society.
The evidence of a “voracity effect” of revenue windfalls reducing growth by fostering rent-seeking and corruption is widely documented by the literature. However, the reverse hypothesis of a “scarcity effect” of revenue declines, stimulating corruption by creating shortages, has theoretical foundations but little empirical support. This paper fills this gap by providing an empirical analysis of the voracity and scarcity effects of aggregate export windfalls and downfalls on firm-level bribery. Exploiting 24,920 bribery reports from firms located in 49 developing and transition countries, multilevel estimations of these effects are conducted. Results support a positive effect of both export surges and slumps on bribe payments and incidence, when democratic and financial institutions are weak; and a negative effect when institutions are stronger. Estimated relationships are more pronounced for manufactures than service firms, and stay robust when the sample is restricted to small-medium non-exporting firms and to domestic firms, which lowers the eventuality of reverse causality from firm corrupt transactions to aggregate export shocks. Therefore, consistent with the literature, this paper provides additional evidence on the importance of institutional safeguards against corrupt practices in times of abundance. But more importantly, it provides new insights into their importance in times of shortage.
