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![Peak phosphorus curve indicating a peak in production by 2033, derived from US Geological Survey and industry data. Source: [1].](profile/Dana-Cordell/publication/227439251/figure/fig4/AS:302348330127363@1449096867325/Peak-phosphorus-curve-indicating-a-peak-in-production-by-2033-derived-from-US-Geological.png)
Peak phosphorus curve indicating a peak in production by 2033, derived from US Geological Survey and industry data. Source: [1].
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This paper reviews the latest information and perspectives on global phosphorus scarcity. Phosphorus is essential for food production and modern agriculture currently sources phosphorus fertilizers from finite phosphate rock. The 2008 food and phosphate fertilizer price spikes triggered increased concerns regarding the depletion timeline of phospha...
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... numerous scholars and visionaries have alluded to the finiteness of phosphate rock or the notion of future phosphorus scarcity over the past century [41,42], the term ‘peak phosphorus’ in this context only emerged in the scientific and public domains relatively recently. To date, all secondary references to peak phosphorus explicitly or implicitly refer to either the peak phosphorus analysis undertaken by Dery and Anderson [29], indicating a peak in phosphorus production occurred in 1988, or, the analysis undertaken by the authors in Figure 4 [1,30], indicating a peak phosphorus year of 2033. It is important to first clarify the key differences between these two studies, in order to discuss the relevance of peak phosphorus, and some common misunderstandings of the concept. Whilst these two studies emerged around the same time, they were undertaken in isolation from one another. While the underlying concepts of these two analyses remain the same, they differ in two important ways. Dery and Anderson arrive at a peak year in the past (that is, 1988), because they do not use a constraining figure for total remaining reserves, citing a lack of reliability and distrust in the production of USGS data sets. Further, production data for the period up until 2006 is used, which results in a peak year of ...
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... our analysis, the published production data is fitted to a Gaussian distribution using a least squares method, in which the production data is fitted to the Gaussian and the total area under the curve is matched to the estimated total reserves. Therefore, when the published estimates of global phosphate rock reserves (that were available in 2008–2009) are used, this constrains the area under the curve and thus the solution for the peak year, and results in an estimate of the peak production of around 2033, as shown in Figure 4. Whilst there is a strong case for the validity of the peak phosphorus concept, and the implications for humanity of not preparing for a soft-landing approach in good time are serious, the analysis itself has several limitations. This section highlights some drawbacks of the peak phosphorus analysis. Firstly, determining the peak year is fraught with difficulties due to the unreliable estimates of the phosphate reserves. In fact, the peak is likely to be an extended and ‘lumpy’ plateau, rather than providing a specific year, in much the same way as the peak of oil production. Whilst the application of Hubbert’s curve can be informative for timely resource management (particularly critical for those resources like phosphorus which cannot be substituted), it is limited in the sense that it represents an ideal or single-variable situation. That is, it accounts for the time variable, however does not account for other variables such as external supply or demand-side factors. Some ‘real-world’ variables that can distort the perfect or ideal curve include: 1) Supply-side variables (can increase or decrease annual production): o Deliberate manipulation of annual production by major producing nations (for example, as in the case of OPEC fixing annual production of oil); o Geopolitical instability in a producing nation can disrupt and hence reduce annual output; o Raw material input constraints (such as the price of oil or sulfur) can reduce annual ...
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... numerous scholars and visionaries have alluded to the finiteness of phosphate rock or the notion of future phosphorus scarcity over the past century [41,42], the term 'peak phosphorus' in this context only emerged in the scientific and public domains relatively recently. To date, all secondary references to peak phosphorus explicitly or implicitly refer to either the peak phosphorus analysis undertaken by Dery and Anderson [29], indicating a peak in phosphorus production occurred in 1988, or, the analysis undertaken by the authors in Figure 4 [1,30], indicating a peak phosphorus year of 2033. It is important to first clarify the key differences between these two studies, in order to discuss the relevance of peak phosphorus, and some common misunderstandings of the concept. ...
Context 4
... our analysis, the published production data is fitted to a Gaussian distribution using a least squares method, in which the production data is fitted to the Gaussian and the total area under the curve is matched to the estimated total reserves. Therefore, when the published estimates of global phosphate rock reserves (that were available in [2008][2009]) are used, this constrains the area under the curve and thus the solution for the peak year, and results in an estimate of the peak production of around 2033, as shown in Figure 4. ...
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... As a vital component of plants, P is essential for energy transfer, photosynthesis, and cell division, making it a cornerstone of crop productivity and plant health. Agricultural intensification, aimed at achieving higher yields to feed a burgeoning population, has further entrenched the reliance on P-based fertilizers and increasing mining activities that disrupt the natural landscape and ecosystems in the vicinity of the quarry due to land-use violations, air emissions, water pollution, and noise (Cordell et al., 2009;Cordell and White, 2011). Reliance on P fertilizers has been pivotal in boosting food production (Cordell and White, 2013;FAO, 2022); therefore, recent years have seen increased research and investment in more efficient P-fertilizer production at lower environmental externalities and lower costs. ...
... The global cost of processing and transporting P fertilizers is primarily determined by energy costs and environmental costs. Phosphorite rocks are one of the most widely traded commodities on the international market, with approximately 220 million tons transported annually (Cordell and White, 2011;USGS, 2023). Phosphorus fertilizer market prices are contingent on international demand and the geopolitical stability of a limited number of countries who possess major P resources: P stocks are primarily located in Morocco (69.44%), ...
... China (2.64%), Brazil (2.2%), South Africa (2.2%), Saudi Arabia (1.94%), Australia (1.53%), and the United States (1.39%) ( Table 1) (Cordell and White, 2011;USGS, 2023). However, global P production is currently led by China (41%), Morocco (16%), the United States (9%), and Russia (6%) with a tota (Note 1) approach not only helps conserve finite P reserves but also mitigates the environmental impacts of P run-off. ...
This paper presents a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of producing alternative phosphorus (P) fertilizers from recycled water treatment residuals (Fe-WTR) and cowshed effluents. The cost-benefit values of Fe-WTR are compared to the net costs of recycling P using a synthetic adsorbent (commonly used practice-layered double hydroxide, P-LDH) and the costs of commercial fertilizers. Dairy wastewater is used as a source of P. The cost of 1 ton P using the Fe-WTR process is €329. In contrast, synthetic adsorbents (P-LDH) incur significantly higher costs, amounting to €3329 per ton, underscoring the economic advantage of utilizing waste-derived materials. Adopting Fe-WTR fertilizer not only offers substantial cost savings by avoiding landfill fees (€40 per ton) and wastewater discharge fines (€500 per ton) but also reduces environmental impacts when compared to the use of commercial P fertilizers (non-recycled P). The Fe-WTR method mitigates eutrophication and pollution, presenting the dual benefit of cost-effectiveness and environmental protection, which exceeds the common P recycling practice (LDH). Our conclusions are based on production processes in Israel and compared to previous cost estimations at the world level, assessing the potential gain from such circular production of P globally. Recycling P from waste streams can be economically viable and environmentally preferable at small and large economic scales, supporting global sustainability goals.
... Elemental P is found in Earth's geology, typically in sedimentary rocks, and is retrieved through mining for further usage [2]. Phosphorus ranks as the 11th most abundant compound among the elements found in the Earth's crust [3] and is primarily harvested for its use in fertilizer. Due to the rapid upsurge in the worldwide population in recent decades, there is an urgent need to increase food production by 70-100% to meet the global food demand in 2050 [4]. ...
Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTSs), although essential for managing domestic sewage in areas without centralized sewerage treatment plants, often release phosphorus (P) into the environment due to inadequate treatment. This unregulated P discharge exacerbates water quality degradation and jeopardizes aquatic habitats and human health. Among different treatment technologies, electrocoagulation (EC) demonstrates considerable potential for addressing this challenge by efficiently removing P from OWTSs and thus protecting water resources and ecological integrity. Through electrochemical reactions, EC destabilizes and aggregates P-bearing particles, facilitating their removal through precipitation. Compared to conventional treatment approaches, i.e., chemical and biological methods, EC offers several advantages, including high efficiency, minimal chemical usage, and adaptability to varying wastewater compositions. This review underscores the urgent need for mitigating P discharge from OWTSs and the efficacy of EC as a sustainable solution for P removal, offering insights into its mechanisms, reactor design considerations, important operational factors, performance, and potential applications in OWTSs as well as providing future research directions.
... Phosphorus remains essential in food production. Thanks to phosphate fertilizers, crop yields have increased in the last 50 years and contributed to the world population (Cordell and White, 2011). ...
Phosphorus (P) is an essential element for plant growth, playing a crucial role in various metabolic processes. Despite its importance, phosphorus availability in soils is often restricted due to its tendency to form insoluble complexes, limiting plant uptake. The increasing demand for phosphorus in agriculture, combined with limited global reserves of phosphate rock, has created challenges for sustainable plant production. Additionally, the overuse of chemical phosphorus fertilizers has resulted in environmental degradation, such as eutrophication of water bodies. Increasing agronomic phosphorus (P) efficiency is crucial because of population growth and increased food demand. Hence, microorganisms involved in the P cycle are a promising biotechnological strategy that has gained global interest in recent decades. Microorganisms' solubilization of phosphate rock (PR) is an environmentally sustainable alternative to chemical processing for producing phosphate fertilizers. Phosphorus-solubilizing microorganisms (PSMs), including bacteria and fungi, and their enzymatic processes offer an eco-friendly and sustainable alternative to chemical inputs by converting insoluble phosphorus into forms readily available for plant uptake. Integrating PSMs into agricultural systems presents a promising strategy to reduce dependence on chemical fertilizers, enhance soil health, and contribute to the transition toward more sustainable and resilient agricultural practices. It can be an alternative that reduces the loss of phosphorus in the environment, especially the eutrophication of aquatic systems. This paper explores the challenges of phosphorus availability in agriculture and the potential of microbial phosphorus solubilization as a sustainable alternative to conventional practices.
... P-fertilization is then mainly applied using chemical inputs derived from phosphate-rich rock deposits, then industrially processed into marketable products. However, currently global reserves of high-quality rockphosphate (RP) are reaching alarmingly low levels (Cordell et al., 2009;Cordell & White, 2011George et al., 2016;Reitzel et al., 2019). In addition, anthropogenic activities have altered the global P biogeochemical cycle and cause global environmental, social, economic and geopolitical challenges. ...
The use of rock phosphate (RP) instead of soluble phosphate fertilizers is preferred for the development of more sustainable agriculture. However, the impact of high concentrations in RP on bacterial and fungal communities remains poorly documented. Thus, next‐generation sequencing was used to characterize bacterial and fungal communities in the soils and roots of four plant species growing naturally in a self‐restored ecosystem, on former open‐pit phosphate mines where past exploitation generated locally a substantial phosphate enrichment of the soil. Our results show that bacterial communities are dominated by Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria phyla, while the Ascomycota and Basidiomycota phyla predominate in the fungal community. The alpha and beta diversities of both bacterial and fungal communities differ significantly between the root and soil compartments but are not significantly affected by RP inputs. However, Amplicon Sequence Variants (ASVs) indicative of RP‐enriched soils have been identified; among them are bacteria representative of Streptomyces, Bacillus, Mycobacterium or Agromyces. Implications of these results open new ways of reflection to understand the microbial response following RP‐inputs and long‐term soil restoration, as well as to formulate microbial‐based bioinoculants for sustainable agriculture applications based on microorganisms better adapted to high concentrations of RP.
... Phosphorus (P) has become a non-renewable fertilizer resource and is becoming less available (Faradji & de Boer, 2016). P mining is predicted to peak in the year 2033 and will thereafter decline (Cordell & White, 2011). Therefore, there is a global interest in finding new P resources and improving industrial-scale recycling of P. Food production systems will then start lacking P as fertilizer will be increasingly unavailable or expensive. ...
Mined rock phosphate is expected to become a scarce resource within the next few decades as global phosphorus (P) deposits are declining. As a result, mineral P fertilizer will be less available and more expensive. Therefore, improved knowledge is needed on other P resources, for example, apatite fertilizers derived from the by-products of iron mining. Forestry is a potential future consumer of apatite-rich products with the aim of obtaining more wood per hectare. The actual P availability in apatite to plants has so far been barely quantified. We therefore examined tree P uptake using 33 P apatite under chamber-grown and outdoor conditions. We examined the P uptake for the two main conifer species spruce (Picea abies) and pine (Pinus sylvestris) used in Fenno-Scandinavian forestry. We synthesized 33 P-enriched apatite and applied it to mesocosms with growing seedlings of spruce and pine. The P uptake from 33 P-labelled hydroxylapatite was subsequently traced by (bio)imaging of radioactivity in the plants and by liquid scintillation counting (LSC) upon destructive harvest in all plant fractions (leaves, stem and roots) and rhizosphere soil. Two climatic conditions were compared, one at natural outdoor conditions and one set as 5 C warmer than the climate record from the previous years. Plant P uptake from 33 P-labelled hydroxylapatite was enhanced in chamber-grown compared with outdoor seedlings for both tree species. This uptake was manifested in the clear radioactive images obtained over ca. 1 month after soil apatite application. Furthermore, all aboveground plant fractions of both spruce and pine seedlings showed a higher P uptake in warmer than colder daytime environments. The observed quantities and rates of P uptake from 33 P-labelled hydroxylapatite by spruce (18 Bq g À1 hour À1) and pine (83 Bq g À1 hour À1 ; averages in chamber condition) are as to our knowledge unique observations. Natural forest soils in Sweden are often P-poor. Our research suggests that apatite-based P fertilization of spruce and pine forests can increase wood production by overcoming any existing P limitation.
... As the global human population continues to grow, increased agricultural output from limited arable land has become vital (Cordell and White 2011). Sustainable alternatives to traditional synthetic fertilisers are desirable, as these agrochemicals often lead to detrimental downstream effects such as eutrophication of water bodies, release of greenhouse gases (Chislock et al. 2013), and loss of soil biodiversity (Xu et al. 2020). ...
Biofertilisers comprised of plant growth promoting bacteria (PGPB) present a promising sustainable alternative to synthetic fertilisers. Bacteria which consistently colonise roots of specific plants across distinct environments, known as that plant’s core root microbiome, are particularly promising due to their colonisation competency. However, traditional, culture-based techniques can overlook promising PGPB which do not display commonly screened for plant growth promoting traits. Although numerous studies have isolated beneficial root bacteria, few have combined bacterial metabarcoding with culture-based techniques to identify novel biofertiliser candidates. In a two-pronged approach, 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing was used to define the core root microbiome of the model cereal plant, Brachypodium distachyon, grown in four distinct soils. From 7,042 amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) detected in root fractions, only 40 ASVs were common at a prevalence of 80%. Core ASVs primarily belonged to the class Alphaproteobacteria, with the remainder comprising Actinobacteria, Bacilli, Chloroflexia, Gammaproteobacteria and Negativicutes. Secondly, B. distachyon root-associated bacterial strains were isolated from plants grown in the aforementioned soils. Of 207 root-associated isolates, 10 were identified as members of the core root microbiome, with the majority not displaying commonly screened for plant growth promoting traits. However, in a semi-hydroponic system, a core Bacillus and Rhodococcus strain significantly increased B. distachyon shoot dry weight by 32.8% and 40.0%, respectively. Additionally, two core Bacillus strains significantly increased root dry weight by 79.7 and 52.3%. This study demonstrates the potential of incorporating additional criteria afforded by culture-independent methods to select for novel biofertiliser candidates which may be overlooked by culture-dependent techniques.
... The increasing global population and shifts in dietary habits are expected to significantly raise the demand for phosphorus in the coming decades, particularly due to the growing consumption of meat and dairy products, which are phosphorusintensive [5]. However, the accessibility of phosphorus is increasingly limited, with most reserves concentrated in a few countries, including Morocco, China, the USA, South Africa, and Jordan [6]. Morocco alone holds around 70% of the global phosphate rock reserves [7]. ...
... Morocco alone holds around 70% of the global phosphate rock reserves [7]. This uneven distribution of phosphorus, one of the world's most critical minerals, could lead to geopolitical tensions and instability regarding its future supply [6]. ...
Phosphorus is a vital nutrient essential for plant development and numerous biological functions. It is primarily obtained from phosphate rock through a process known as beneficiation. However, the declining reserves of high-grade phosphate rock, combined with the uneven global distribution of phosphorus and the environmental impacts associated with its extraction and use, highlight the need for a more efficient management of this critical resource. Increasingly, alternative sources of phosphorus, such as extraction from waste materials, are being explored. This study aims to assess the feasibility of recovering phosphorus from coarse rejects produced during phosphate beneficiation at a phosphate washing plant. Before conducting laboratory preparation and reverse flotation tests, the sample underwent initial laboratory examination and analysis. The sample was found to contain low-grade apatite minerals with a phosphorus pentoxide (P2O5) content ranging from 19% to 20%. Additionally, carbonate and quartz were identified as the primary accompanying minerals. Flotation experiments yielded a phosphorus recovery rate of 29% P2O5, with a carbonation rate of 1.6. Although this recovery rate is slightly below the commercial phosphate standard of 30% P2O5, it represents a significant improvement and demonstrates potential for further optimization to meet industry requirements. Consequently, these coarse discarded rejects could serve as a supplementary source of phosphorus in the future.
... Agricultural systems face crucial issues regarding phosphorus (P) management. Previous studies have highlighted: i) the risk of rock phosphate reserve shortage (the raw materials used to produce synthetic P fertilisers), given increasing consumption due to growing demand for food; and ii) the risk of geopolitical tension related to this resource (Brownlie et al. 2023;Cordell and White 2011;Cordell et al. 2009;Scholz and Wellmer 2019;Tilman et al. 2002). Alternative P sources for mineral P fertilisers, such as organic waste products (OWPs), e.g. ...
Phosphorus (P) is a major nutrient for crops, and its application to agricultural soils as inorganic or organic fertiliser is crucial for optimising P availability to plants to sustain food production. The mineralisation of soil organic phosphorus (SOP) may play a significant role in supplying plant-available P. This study aimed to determine the SOP mineralisation rate in soils cropped under contrasting agropedoclimatic conditions. By applying the modelling approach developed by Hénin and Dupuis in 1945 for soil organic carbon, to SOP, we were able to determine the rate of SOP mineralisation. We used three French long-term field experiments (LTFEs) on P fertilisation, which combine different P doses (0–112 kg P ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), applied for decades (14–18 years) as superphosphate or various organic waste products (OWPs), on different soil types, and different annual crop successions. These databases include long time-series data of SOP and soil inorganic phosphorus (SIP) stocks and annual crop measurements. For the three LTFEs, the initial SOP stocks were 446, 595, and 1145 kg P ha⁻¹. During the post-harvest year, 2.5, 7.9, and 11.0 kg P ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ were incorporated into SOP by the decomposition of crop residues and OWPs. Conversely, 12.5, 27, and 46 kg P ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ were released as phosphate ions and contributed significantly to the plant-available soil P. The rates of SOP mineralisation, 2.1, 5.4, and 11.2 kg P ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, differed significantly across the LTFEs. The SOP stocks remained stable across time, and during repeated crop production and fertilisation, irrespective of P treatments. The SIP stocks closely corresponded to the cumulative P budget. Overall, the average SOP mineralisation rate is low and appears to play a minor role in the plant-available soil P and its uptake.
... When fertilizers are applied inefficiently, P ends up in aquatic ecosystems where it is difficult to recover [20]. Researchers have coined the term peak P, where humanity achieves its maximum rate of P production, to define this concept [21]. P will become more challenging to obtain and utilize as fertilizer past this threshold, thereby jeopardizing the world's food security [22]. ...
Phosphorus (P) plays an integral part in Iowa’s economic and environmental activities through its role as an essential nutrient and waterborne pollutant. However, the amount of phosphorus transported through these activities has not been well quantified. This study estimates the annual mass of P entering and exiting Iowa’s landscape from 1998 to 2022 through seven transport pathways. Four input pathways (fertilizer application, manure production, industrial sources, and human sources) and three output pathways (harvesting, livestock grazing, and stream export) were quantified using various agricultural, economic, and water quality datasets. We also estimated the total mass of P present in the top 0.61 m layer of Iowa’s landscape using results from a statewide soil sampling survey. The harvest component was the largest, with annual values consistently above 200 million kg. This was followed by the fertilizer and manure components, with annual values near 100 million kg. The other components were much smaller; the mean grazing and stream export values were 15 and 19 million kg, respectively, and human and industrial sources were less than 4 million kg. Stream export was the most dynamic pathway, with the largest coefficient of variation (0.59). The net P budget (inputs–outputs) was negative in 20 of the 25 years assessed, indicating that Iowa typically runs a P deficit. A trend analysis revealed that the manure, human, industry, and harvesting components increased across the 1998–2022 period while the grazing component decreased. The mass of P in Iowa’s top layer of soil was 81.5 billion kg—orders of magnitude larger than any individual budget component. This analysis provides a new perspective on P transport pathways in Iowa and may help inform policymakers as they make decisions on the many activities involving P.
... Based on current extraction rates, phosphorus is expected to reach its peak by 2030 and be completely depleted by the end of this century. Unlike alternative energy sources, the phosphorus shortage crisis cannot be mitigated by substituting with another element [2,3]. In the natural cycle, weathering releases phosphorus from rocks into the soil, where it is absorbed by plants, enters the food chain, and circulates among all living organisms [4]. ...
... The amount of phosphate adsorbed per unit mass of adsorbent at time t (Q t , mg g −1 ) and at equilibrium (Q e , mg g −1 ) could be calculated using Equations (1) and (2) [68,74]: ...
The aluminum terephthalate (MIL-53) metal–organic framework (MOF) (MIL-53(Al)) was evaluated as an adsorbent for removing phosphates from aqueous solutions. XRD and FTIR were used to confirm the molecular structure. TGA/DSC was used to measure its stability. The green synthesizing MIL-53(Al) showed good performance as a highly efficient adsorbent. The adsorbed MIL-53(Al) nanoparticles still retain their original morphology according to SEM, allowing it to be easily separated from the aqueous solution via filtration. Additionally, the thermal stability of synthesized MIL-53(Al) is capable of withstanding temperatures up to 500 °C, as confirmed by TGA/DSC. Using different initial concentrations of Na2HPO4 and ICP-OES measurements, we determined the adsorption values of Na2HPO4 by MIL-53(Al) as a function of time. Three kinetic models (pseudo-first-order, pseudo-second-order, and Elovich) and three isotherm models (Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin) were used to evaluate the phosphate adsorption behavior of MIL-53(Al) powder in Na2HPO4 aqueous solution. Error functions are used to evaluate various kinetic and isotherm models related to different physical processes. From the analysis of the adsorption experiments, the Elovich model is the best-fitting kinetic model, showing that the adsorption rate decreases with increasing adsorption capacity. Furthermore, error function analysis identified the Freundlich model as the most suitable, indicating that complicated adsorption coexists with physisorption, and chemisorption synergistically drives the adsorption process. The module utilizing MIL-53(Al) hollow fibers also demonstrated preliminary attempts at phosphate adsorption and desorption for the first time. This work demonstrated that MIL-53(Al) is an exceptionally stable adsorbent for removing phosphate from contaminated wastewater.
