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Patterns of population density changes under differing constellations of development of urban population (POP) and built-up area (BA) in Ostrava typology of urban structures within basic settlement units.
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![Population change in Ostrava (1869–2019 [88]) and prediction of...](publication/334857063/figure/fig1/AS:11431281390082738@1745234276159/Population-change-in-Ostrava-1869-2019-88-and-prediction-of-population-change-until_Q320.jpg)
Urban shrinkage has become a common pathway (not only) in post-socialist cities, which represents new challenges for traditionally growth-oriented spatial planning. Though in the post-socialist area, the situation is even worse due to prevailing weak planning culture and resulting uncoordinated development. The case of the city of Ostrava illustrat...
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... The first perspective focuses on changes in the quality of natural resources-such as air, water, and soil [13][14][15]-resulting from urban construction, aiming to assess the degradation of resource sustainability. The second perspective evaluates spatial attributes of urban areas, such as population density [16,17] and urban form compactness [18,19], to infer energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions that are influenced by factors like land-saving and commuting distances. The third perspective compares social disparities between urban and rural regions, including employment, infrastructure, and healthcare access [20,21]. ...
Urbanization challenges city sustainability by aggravating uneven population migration and land exploitation. Understanding the characteristics and dynamics of this imbalance is crucial for promoting sustainable development. With a focus on population-related land change, this study analyzes the urban–rural imbalance characterized by settlement expansion from 1985 to 2019, using nighttime light (NTL) remote sensing imagery and global settlement distribution data, with Guangdong province, China, as a case study. The key findings reveal significant spatiotemporal differences in settlement expansion between the urban and rural regions. The urban settlements experienced faster expansion from 1985 to 2005, which slowed post-2005, while the rural settlements maintained a stable growth rate throughout the study period. The economic and environmental conditions were identified as major drivers of expansion diversity, with economic factors playing a dominant role in the urban regions and both factors influencing the rural regions. A linear regression analysis highlighted the diverse quantity relationships between the urban and rural settlements across different spatial extents; the urban settlements dominated in quantity at the provincial level, primarily due to the contributions of the core Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. In contrast, the rural settlements outnumbered the urban ones in most of the other prefectures, a trend that continued to deepen across Guangdong province. The findings of this study provide deeper insights into the characteristics and evolvement of the urban–rural imbalance, policy implications and actionable strategies are offered for equitable and sustainable city development.
... In the context of worsening climatic conditions and rapid urban expansion, the challenges posed by climate risks, urbanization, and development to SCs are growing in complexity and diversity [114][115][116][117][118]. Consequently, establishing a resilient urban spatial structure that can adapt to growth and contraction is essential for cities to sustainably develop. ...
Bolstering the resilience of shrinking cities (SCs) is essential for maintaining urban dynamic security and fostering sustainable development. Accurately assessing and revealing the resilience level and impact mechanism of SCs to cope with disturbances and shocks has become a hot topic of research in urban sustainable development. In this research, we presented a systematic conceptualization of the fundamental components of urban shrinkage (US) and urban resilience (UR) and, based on US and UR theories, constructed a methodological framework aimed at investigating the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism and spatial correlation network effect of resilience in different SCs in China. This paper initially evaluates the UR levels of various types of SCs in China by establishing an evaluation model for US and a multidimensional evaluation index system for UR based on the theoretical frameworks, aligned with the national context in China. We also define the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of UR for different types of SCs. Subsequently, this paper employs a coupled coordination model and a geographical detector model to elucidate the influencing mechanisms on UR of different types of SCs, focusing on UR subsystems and indicators. Finally, this paper empirically examines the spatial correlation network effects of UR under various US scenarios using a social network analysis model. The results show that many SCs have progressively adjusted to the challenges posed by US, and the UR of SCs has shown an upward trend from 2010 to 2021. Cities with higher US levels generally show lower coordination in UR subsystems. The comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste and road freight per capita are crucial for improving the UR of cities with higher US levels. Moreover, US probably strengthens UR connections between cities, facilitating resilience transmission and dissemination. These findings advance UR research within the US framework and offer theoretical foundations and planning guidance for environmentally friendly and high-quality development in shrinking cities.
... The emergence of a global multidimensional phenomenon known as "urban shrinkage, " which is characterized by a decline in population in urban centers, has become increasingly evident in both developed and developing countries (Martinez-Fernandez et al., 2012;Schett, 2011;Slach et al., 2019;Wolff & Wiechmann, 2017). It has been considered a serious challenge for the contemporary urban world (Martinez-Fernandez et al., 2015). ...
Urban shrinkage has become a global challenge in the field of urban studies. Despite significant progress in understanding urban shrinkage in developed countries, further exploration is necessary to comprehend the recent emergence of urban shrinkage in developing countries. This study explores the spatial pattern of urban shrinkage and urban decline and examines the associated factors of population decline in Indian urban centers. The phenomenon of urban decline in India presents a paradox as the country witnesses a steady growth in urbanization, yet some urban centers are facing a decline in population. Results showed that every one in nine urban centers was declining, with one-fifth of them shrinking in terms of population. The urban growth rate and level of urbanization are major contributing factors to this decline, along with city-level characteristics such as small population size, low population density, low fertility, and a higher aging population. To address this rising threat, urban policymakers in India must plan for the growth and development of declining and shrinking cities through revitalization programs, capital investment, infrastructure development, and micro-regional planning. Further, encouraging inclusive development for small and larger cities can help achieve sustainable urban development in India.
... The influence of globalization, internationalization, and societal transformations on urban development and property management has been particularly strong in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe [76]. Urban shrinkage has become a common pathway in post-socialist cities, posing new challenges for traditionally growthoriented spatial planning [77]. ...
Over the past three decades, the region has undergone significant changes that have transformed the social, economic and political landscape. The traces of these changes are particularly visible in the post-socialist states of Central and Eastern Europe. These processes have sometimes fragmented, sometimes reshaped, and sometimes transcended borders, reshaping the region. The focus of this study is on the 'geography' of companies, i.e. the concentration of companies with more than 10 employees in the region in the 15 countries selected, according to various criteria. The countries covered by the study are Albania, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Kosovo, Montenegro, Northern Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. The data of the active economic operators (over 300 thousand) of the countries included in the study were analyzed by turnover and size. The spatial distribution of enterprises at the NUTS3 level presents a far more diverse picture than what is typically observed in economic indicators such as GDP. Additionally, the disparities in this particular distribution are not as pronounced or distinct as those of general economic indicators.
... R1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t 3 phenomena and mechanisms of shrinkage (e.g., Guo and Li, 2019;). With population loss as the most visible manifestation, urban shrinkage is accompanied by a reduction in urban economic activity and tax revenues (Kocur-Bera & Szuniewicz, 2021;Slach et al., 2019), resulting in increased vacant buildings and open space, oversupply of infrastructure, and inefficient public services (Wang & Immergluck, 2019;Usui & Perez, 2022;Schilling & Logan, 2008), which significantly change the urban built environment. Changes in the built environment will raise ecological and sustainability concerns, but this process is often overlooked in shrinking cities. ...
The proliferation of case studies of shrinking cities in recent years has stimulated intense debate on the impacts of urban shrinkage. However, assessing the impacts of urban shrinkage from a comprehensive perspective could be more present. Also, there is a lake of analytical review of historical studies about the impacts of urban shrinkage. The built environment has different characteristics under different urban development patterns involving infrastructure, services, and social, economic, and structural factors, which provides a best practice for exploring the impacts of urban shrinkage. This study synthesizes the literature surrounding urban shrinkage and built environment changes, identifying that urban shrinkage notably affects the different components of the built environment and gives rise to four related environmental and sustainability impacts involving urban landscapes and structures, ecological sustainability, socioeconomic vitality, and residents' perceptions. Furthermore, there are interactions between the environmental and sustainability impacts, involving trade-offs and synergies between residents' perceptions, ecological sustainability, and socioeconomic vitality. The study also summarized the mainstream methods for assessing the impacts of urban shrinkage and explored the effects of urban shrinkage management strategies on improving the built environment. Finally, a framework for future direction is presented for the final to integrate the theories of urban shrinkage, people and land relationship, and sustainable urban development to guide further exploration in the field. In summary, this study implies that restoring and upgrading the built environment can pave the way for a common goal for long-term sustainable development. The value of this study is to provide relevant researchers with the knowledge to understand the developing frontiers of urban shrinkage impacts on built environments.
... Equations (8) and (9) further formulate the improvements in LUE values over time as ΔLUE as upheld in the scenarios. Improvements in LUE values are evaluated based on absolute values for specific cases where LUE at t and t + n involves negative values as in the case of shrinking cities with both low-intensity land use and declining population [143]. In LUE Av and LUE Best, values at t + n always converge to positive values. ...
Urban areas represent key opportunities for mitigation efforts through supporting renewable energy systems, improving urban planning, and increasing resource efficiency. This research work develops two types of urban emissions scenarios in green growth-oriented contexts with and without local ambitions. These scenarios are further coupled with improvements in existing land use efficiencies and multi-dimensional analyses. The method is applied to 45 urban areas, including 15 cities that are selected as Mission Cities in Europe. Different urban emissions scenarios indicate possibilities for reducing 135.80 ± 0.87 MtCO2eq of annual urban consumption-based emissions in 2020 by 58.72 MtCO2eq in 2030 along a 100% renewable energy pathway. Urban land use efficiency scenarios determine annual carbon dioxide sequestration penalties that range between 8.25 and 14.95 MtCO2 in 2050 due to more built-up area in local biomes. Monte Carlo simulations support the analyses of urban emissions and sequestration penalties on a cumulative basis. Among illustrative scenario combinations, net cumulative urban emissions are 1725.93 MtCO2eq in the most favourable scenario that is 50.6% lower than those in the least favourable scenario. Multi-dimensional analyses based on a city index for benchmarking indicate an average improvement of 11.500 for Mission Cities with the quickest response for mitigation. The results have implications for guiding bold policy action and integrated urban planning to increase mitigation efforts for climate neutrality and sustainability.
... It is a relatively young city located in eastern Czechia, whose main growth took place during the 19th and 20th centuries as a result of industrialization and development connected with heavy industry (metallurgy and chemical industry) and hard coal mining (Bosák et al., 2018). However, political decisions related to the urban planning directives in the late 1940 s and 1950 s in Ostrava led to depopulation, neglect, and even completely demolished city parts (Slach et al., 2019). Demographic causes of constant depopulation since the 1990 s include low birth rates or migration, but also major economic causes, such as economic restructuring of heavy industry (Bosák et al., 2018;Ž enka et al., 2021), besides highly concerning environmental pollution (Rumpel and Slach, 2012;Slach et al., 2019). ...
... However, political decisions related to the urban planning directives in the late 1940 s and 1950 s in Ostrava led to depopulation, neglect, and even completely demolished city parts (Slach et al., 2019). Demographic causes of constant depopulation since the 1990 s include low birth rates or migration, but also major economic causes, such as economic restructuring of heavy industry (Bosák et al., 2018;Ž enka et al., 2021), besides highly concerning environmental pollution (Rumpel and Slach, 2012;Slach et al., 2019). Following deindustrialization and the demolition of former industrial structures, Ostrava has remained with the largest share of brownfields (8.4% of its total urban area) among Czech cities with over 100,000 inhabitants (Kunc et al., 2014). ...
... Given that spatial distributions of depopulation and vacancies strongly correlated with concentrations of vulnerable groups, it appears that urban shrinkage contributed to Leipzig's sociospatial restructuring, and to the partial re-emergence of the city's pre-war patterns of residential segregation. Slach et al. (2019) examined how urban shrinkage impacted social sustainability in Ostrava, a sprawling city that experienced a decline in population between 1991 and 2018 due to post-socialist economic reforms, deindustrialisation, outmigration, suburbanisation, environmental degradation, declining fertility rates and a reliance on pro-growth policy strategies focused on securing financial investments or fostering economic growth. The authors concluded that shrinkage deepened existing patterns of residential segregation, which were characterised by concentrations of higher-and lower-status households in more and less desirable inner-city locations, respectively. ...
A nascent body of scholarship suggests that the depopulation of urban areas may catalyse residential segregation between different population groups and spatial concentrations of vulnerable groups. Based on a systematic literature review, this article summarises peer-reviewed articles and case studies on the role of urban shrinkage in shaping residential segregation in the context of European cities, and highlights methodological shortcomings and empirical knowledge gaps, thereby contributing to our understanding of the mechanisms through which population dynamics influence urban inequalities and their relevance for planning and policy. In sum, studies verifying the frequently assumed positive relationship between urban population loss and widening segregation remain few and far between. Moreover, mismatches between spatial and temporal scales, in addition to the indicators and metrics used in past studies, have hampered not only comparisons of how these dynamics play out in different contexts, but also the integration of spatial justice perspectives into urban planning.
... It is essential to solve the problems of the places that "don't matter": those that have undergone long periods of low or negative incremental growth, those in industrial decline, those with low levels of employment, and those that have been told they have no future (Rodríguez-Pose, 2018). Mediumsized cities are key vehicles for balanced prosperity provided they grow using appropriate strategies for sustainable and successful development (Slach et al., 2019). ...
In Europe, urban shrinkage has emerged as a prominent and concerning phenomenon. It is affecting an increasingly large number of cities, particularly small and medium-sized ones. Nonetheless, the dynamics and causes vary at national level. It is a recent process in Spain, although in the 21st century, and especially since the great recession, the number of shrinking medium-sized cities has expanded. This evolution is yet to be sufficiently addressed in the literature, and, in politics and the media, it has been overshadowed by rural depopulation. The aim of this study is to shed light on what is happening in shrinking medium-sized cities, based on the case of Spain. To do so, we combine multiple demographic and socioeconomic variables with depopulation. The correlational analysis reveals a link between depopulation and ageing due to the fall in the potential working population, while births and the population aged below 16 years decreases and that aged over 65 years increases. Additionally, depopulation is correlated with the loss of working population, although no significant correlations can be established between depopulation and the economic variables considered. Drawing on the relationships identified, we established a statistically significant multiple linear regression model. This article represents a novel contribution that may be of practical use for policymakers.
... El decrecimiento urbano ocurrió por primera vez en el siglo XX en los países occidentales, como Alemania, Gran Bretaña y los Estados Unidos, como resultado de la desindustrialización (Rieniets, 2009). Es evidente que algunas ciudades medias españolas arrastran estos efectos (Sánchez-Moral et al., 2022). No obstante, tras la Gran Recesión de 2008 se produce un nuevo fenómeno de decrecimiento en estas ciudades, donde la crisis económica se combina con cambios demográficos que están acelerando la despoblación (Escudero-Gómez et al., 2023). ...
Un gran número de ciudades medias españolas experimentan decrecimiento en el presente. Es un proceso que permanece ignorado en la política y en los medios, frente al de la despoblación rural. En la literatura académica el fenómeno empieza a ser estudiado. La investigación se plantea la pregunta de si la despoblación en estas ciudades coincide con un declive económico. El objetivo es abordar la relación de la pérdida de población con uno de los factores claves de las ciudades en decrecimiento en el mundo: el declive económico. Se han analizado las correlaciones entre la despoblación de las ciudades medias españolas entre 2011 y 2020 y la evolución del total de empresas, así como de las industriales, las de la construcción y las de servicios siguiendo precedentes de la literatura académica del tema. Los datos son obtenidos del Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Se descubre que no existe una correlación entre la pérdida de población y la evolución de empresas. No se puede vincular despoblación con declive económico. Son necesarios estudios de caso para comprender más profundamente el proceso.
Abstract: Many medium-sized Spanish cities are currently experiencing a decline. It is a process that remains ignored in politics and the media, compared to that of rural depopulation. In academic literature the phenomenon begins to be studied. The research raises the question of whether depopulation in these cities coincides with an economic decline. The objective is to address the relationship between the loss of population and one of the key factors in shrinking cities in the world: economic decline. The correlations between the depopulation of Spanish medium-sized cities between 2011 and 2020 and the evolution of the total number of companies, as well as industrial, construction and service companies, have been analyzed following precedents n the academic literature on the subject. The data is obtained from the National Institute of Statistics. It is discovered that there is no correlation between the loss of population and the evolution of companies. Depopulation cannot be correlated with economic decline. Case studies are needed to further understand the process.
