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Climate warming-driven temporal shifts in phenology are widely recognised as the foremost footprint of global environmental change. In this regard, concerted research efforts are being made worldwide to monitor and assess the plant phenological responses to climate warming across species, ecosystems and seasons. Here, we present a global synthesis...
Citations
... Phenological changes can disrupt interactions among species and strongly impact ecosystems. Analysing the phenological responses of plants to temperature has therefore become a priority for the scientific community (Hassan et al., 2024;United Nations Environment Programme, 2022). ...
Global temperatures are increasing due to human-driven climate change, with notable implications for the flowering phenology of many forest tree species. Modelling the thermal requirements of these species is critical for projecting the impacts of climate change on forests and for developing appropriate adaptation strategies. Fitting models to phenological observations requires long time series of data, but such data are scarce. Researchers would benefit from combining databases from different locations to fit a single model. The aims of this study are to model the thermal requirements for flowering of the most relevant angiosperm tree species in central Europe and to determine if the accuracy of the models can be improved by limiting the geographic spread of the calibration data. To this end, we fitted the PhenoFlex phenology modelling framework using various subsets of records from the Pan-European Phenology database, which were paired with local temperature data. We used all available data for five species (Acer platanoides, Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula, Corylus avellana and Fraxinus excelsior) to fit general thermal requirement models. We also fitted models using subsets of the dataset, limiting the calibration sets to data from climatically homogeneous regions and different geographical extents. The general models had average mean absolute errors of 8.51-15.15 days, indicating that they are effective in forecasting flowering onset for central Europe. Predictions did not improve when fitting models with data from temperature-homogeneous areas or from within small geographical extents. These findings suggest that fitting several models to cover parts of an extensive region does not necessarily perform better than fitting a single model for the whole region. This implies that including data from different locations within central Europe when calibrating models would increase the size of calibration datasets without causing a significant increase in model errors. This may help alleviate problems of data scarcity.
... Moreover, vegetation indices such as NDVI, while widely used, have limitations in areas of dense vegetation where they tend to saturate, reducing sensitivity to biomass changes (Fu et al., 2022;Hassan et al., 2023). To overcome these challenges, alternative approaches such as data fusion techniques -which combine optical, radar, and LiDAR data -are being developed to offer a more comprehensive assessment of vegetation health (Illarionova et al., 2024;Tian et al., 2024). ...
... Furthermore, the analysis of vegetation dynamics is complicated by the variability in environmental factors, such as climate variability and humaninduced changes. Phenological shifts, for instance, may vary significantly across ecosystems, making it difficult to create generalisable models for predicting vegetation responses (Hassan et al., 2023;Roberts et al., 2015) Finally, integrating environmental variables like temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture into remote sensing data remains a complex task. Although studies have demonstrated correlations between these factors and vegetation indices (Tsai & Der Yang, 2016;Zhong et al., 2010), predicting vegetation dynamics accurately requires sophisticated models capable of capturing these intricate interactions. ...
... This adaptability is generally advantageous, as plants at the foundation of the food web also respond to temperature, influencing the timing of leaf-out, leaf maturity, flowering, seed set, and seed dispersal (Skendžić et al., 2021) As climate change unfolds, there may be instances where insect populations dwindle due to phenological mismatches with their host plants or prey. Enhanced understanding of the physiological mechanisms governing seasonal cycles across species will enable more precise predictions (Hassan et al., 2024). In some cases, accelerated emergence or hatching has increased the voltinism, or number of generations, an insect species can produce in a year. ...
Climate change emerges as the most dynamic and pervasive environmental challenge of the contemporary era. Its consequences, including the greenhouse effect resulting in elevated temperatures, increasingly frequent droughts, and unpredictable rainfall patterns, are already evident. The effects of climate change and extreme weather phenomena encompass insects, plants, and various taxonomic categories. Heightened temperatures, increased CO2 levels, and sudden shifts in rainfall patterns hold the potential to significantly alter the biochemical processes within insects and thus alter their survival pattern. These dynamic alterations in climate have a notable effect on multiple aspects of insect life, including fertility, feeding patterns, survival rates, population dynamics, and patterns of dispersal. As a result, their abundance, distribution, and life cycles undergo modifications in response to these evolving environmental conditions. This review explores the varied impacts of extreme climate changes on insect populations, explaining the complex relationships between climatic variables and insect ecology. Such changes can have cascading effects on ecosystems leading to disruptions in pollination with indirect implications on food security. Recognizing the urgency of addressing these challenges, this review also delves into sustainable approaches to reduce the risks posed by extreme climate changes on insect populations. Thus, Integrated pest management strategies, Organic farming, conservation of natural habitats, and the promotion of resilient agricultural practices emerge as key components of a comprehensive framework. This review advocates for a complete and adaptive approach to reduce the effect of extreme climate changes on insect populations, ensuring the long-term ecological balance and the resilience of ecosystems in the face of a varying climate.
Temperate woody perennial plants form buds during late summer that contain leaves and flowers that emerge in the following growth season. To survive winter, dormant buds must attain cold hardiness, and timely lose it in spring to break bud while avoiding damage from low temperatures and late frosts. Here, we use an untrained process-based model to predict bud cold hardiness of three grapevine varieties ( V. vinifera 'Cabernet-Sauvignon' and 'Riesling', and V. hybrid 'Concord') from historical temperature records of eight different locations in North America and Europe (n = 329). Based on those predictions, and thresholds of cold hardiness at budbreak from literature, timing of budbreak was extracted. Despite being untrained to the data, the RMSE of budbreak predictions was 7.3 days (Bias=−0.83). Based on cold hardiness estimations and air temperature records, low temperature damage was quantified and validated through newspapers and extension records. In years × location where damage was predicted, corrections to budbreak based on delays expected resulted in improvements of predictions (RMSE=7.2d, Bias=0.58). Predictions of instances of freeze damage risk demonstrate genotypic adaptation to different environments. At the species level, increasing or decreasing trends in freeze damage risk are predicted, depending on the range of mean dormant season temperature (MDST; 1 Nov - 30 Apr) present in each location. Sensitivity analysis of predicted time to budbreak based on MDST shows a general advancement of phenology at −5.8d/°C. However, in much warmer locations, delays can be expected as temperatures continue to increase (+1.9d/°C for MDST>10°C). Through cold hardiness dynamics, the estimation of chilling accumulation appears as an important source of error for predictions of spring phenology across environments. Cold dynamics represents an advancement in phenological modeling that provides information for the entirety of the dormant season, as well as budbreak.
Climate change, driven by anthropogenic activities, profoundly impacts ecosystems worldwide, particularly aquatic environments. This review explores the multifaceted effects of climate change on the phytoremediation capabilities of aquatic plants, focusing on the physiological responses to key environmental factors such as temperature, carbone dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) levels, pH, salinity, and light intensity. As global temperatures rise, moderate increases can enhance photosynthesis and biomass production, boosting the plants’ ability to absorb and detoxify contaminants, such as metals, pharmaceuticals, and nutrients. However, extreme temperatures and salinity levels impose stress, disrupting metabolic processes and reducing phytoremediation efficiency. Elevated CO2 levels generally stimulate growth and nutrient uptake, enhancing phytoremediation, but can also lead to nutrient imbalances and water acidification, complicating these benefits. Conversely, increased O3 levels cause oxidative stress, damaging plant tissues and undermining phytoremediation efforts. This review also highlights the critical role of light intensity and pH in regulating plant growth and contaminant uptake. Optimal light conditions and moderate pH changes can significantly enhance phytoremediation, while reduced light due to increased water turbidity and extreme pH fluctuations pose significant challenges. The interplay between these factors and the microbial communities associated with aquatic plants is explored, revealing complex interactions that influence overall remediation efficiency. By synthesizing current research, this review provides a comprehensive understanding of how climate change influences the physiological processes of aquatic plants and their phytoremediation capacity. The findings underscore the need for adaptive management strategies to harness the benefits of phytoremediation in mitigating water pollution under changing climatic conditions. This review calls for further research into the synergistic and antagonistic interactions between climate variables to develop resilient phytoremediation systems that effectively address environmental contaminants in a warming world.
Herbarium records provide a valuable historical database for assessing plant phenology shifts in the context of global climate change. The herbarium specimens, collected from diverse locations and periods, offer comprehensive data illustrating how many plants are altering their blooming times in response to global climate change. The appropriate use and analysis of long-term herbarium records offer an additional dimension for the study of plant phenology through the application of advanced experimental methodologies such as bioinformatics and satellite imagery, statistics, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) which, coupled with field observations, will improve ecosystems evaluation. These efforts can significantly contribute to conservation strategies and climate change mitigation and further support the synchronization of scientific inputs for evaluating the impacts of climate change and its ecological implications.
Background and Aims
Over the last few decades, many plant species have shown changes in phenology, such as the date on which they germinate, bud or flower. However, some species are changing more slowly than others, potentially owing to daylength (photoperiod) requirements.
Methods
We combined data on flowering-time advancement with published records of photoperiod sensitivity to try to predict which species are advancing their flowering time. Data availability limited us to the Northern Hemisphere.
Key Results
Cross-species analyses showed that short-day plants advanced their flowering time by 1.4 days per decade and day-neutral plants by 0.9 days per decade, but long-day plants delayed their flowering by 0.2 days per decade. However, photoperiod-sensitivity status exhibited moderate phylogenetic conservation, and the differences in flowering-time advancement were not significant after phylogeny was accounted for. Both annual and perennial herbs were more likely to have long-day photoperiod cues than woody species, which were more likely to have short-day photoperiod cues.
Conclusions
Short-day plants are keeping up with plants that do not have photoperiod requirements, suggesting that daylength requirements do not hinder changes in phenology. However, long-day plants are not changing their phenology and might risk falling behind as competitors and pollinators adapt to climate change.
