Figure - available from: Journal of Time Series Econometrics
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Optimization of algorithms with respect to tuning parameters; upper panel: full ST algorithm; middle panel: HP algorithm, lower panel: Autometrics. Percentages correspond to averages over all EDGPs.
Source publication
Global sensitivity analysis is primarily used to investigate the effects of uncertainties in the input variables of physical models on the model output. This work investigates the use of global sensitivity analysis tools in the context of variable selection in regression models. Specifically, a global sensitivity measure is applied to a criterion o...
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This paper introduces a novel meta-learning algorithm for time series forecast model performance prediction. We model the forecast error as a function of time series features calculated from historical time series with an efficient Bayesian multivariate surface regression approach. The minimum predicted forecast error is then used to identify an in...
Citations
... Overall, the sensitivity analysis checking the ordinary least squares parameters for a beta coefficient suggests a linear approach to fit the method's robustness [135]. In summary, the sensitivity analysis would characterise the first-class definition of the input variables in this study, i.e., the variables are sufficient to define a robust econometric model that recognises all possible obstacles and proposes a trait prediction [136]. ...
This study considers diversification effects and significant influences on tourist arrivals as a vital export direction. Different quantitative methods, namely a cointegrated-autoregressive model, panels, sentiment and sensitivity analysis, were used in this study. The time-series data for Croatia and Slovenia were isolated from several secondary sources. The variables examined in this approach are tourist arrivals, precipitations, sunny days, earthquakes, microbes and CO2 emissions. The study results showed that there is a severe negative effect on tourist arrivals defined by viruses. Moreover, there is a significant decisive effect of weather conditions on tourist arrivals. Nevertheless, it is necessary to move past Covid-19 pandemic discussions to yield more accurate tourism supply forecasts, while demand is already somehow low since the beginning of 2020. The primary significance is to develop a broader thinking about the impacts of CO2 emissions on the tourism escorted to official tourist websites.
Highlights
• Advances of science and policy has deep but informal roots in sensitivity analysis.
• Modern sensitivity analysis is now evolving into a formal and independent discipline.
• New areas such data science and machine learning benefit from sensitivity analysis.
• Challenges, methodological progress, and outlook are outlined in this special issue.
Sensitivity analysis (SA) as a ‘formal’ and ‘standard’ component of scientific development and policy support is relatively young. Many researchers and practitioners from a wide range of disciplines have contributed to SA over the last three decades, and the SAMO (sensitivity analysis of model output) conferences, since 1995, have been the primary driver of breeding a community culture in this heterogeneous population. Now, SA is evolving into a mature and independent field of science, indeed a discipline with emerging applications extending well into new areas such as data science and machine learning. At this growth stage, this editorial leads a special issue consisting of one Position Paper on “The future of sensitivity analysis” and 11 research papers on “Sensitivity analysis for environmental modelling” published in Environmental Modelling & Software in 2020–21.
Sensitivity analysis (SA) is en route to becoming an integral part of mathematical modeling. The tremendous potential benefits of SA are, however, yet to be fully realized, both for advancing mechanistic and data-driven modeling of human and natural systems, and in support of decision making. In this perspective paper, a multidisciplinary group of researchers and practitioners revisit the current status of SA, and outline research challenges in regard to both theoretical frameworks and their applications to solve real-world problems. Six areas are discussed that warrant further attention, including (1) structuring and standardizing SA as a discipline, (2) realizing the untapped potential of SA for systems modeling, (3) addressing the computational burden of SA, (4) progressing SA in the context of machine learning, (5) clarifying the relationship and role of SA to uncertainty quantification, and (6) evolving the use of SA in support of decision making. An outlook for the future of SA is provided that underlines how SA must underpin a wide variety of activities to better serve science and society.
