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Mountain societies in developing and low-income countries are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which may severely threaten their livelihoods and wellbeing. The situation of mountain communities in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountains in Central Asia (CA) is exacerbated by their remote location along with outdated infrastructure, poo...
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... Mountainous regions of CA, mostly within Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are among the top three most vulnerable countries to climate change in all of Eastern Europe and Central Asia (Manandhar et al., 2018). This vulnerability is largely attributable to climate-sensitive water and agricultural management systems and a lack of adaptive capacities in these areas (Kaplina et al., 2018). ...
Climate change poses various challenges for agriculture and water management practices in Central Asia (CA). Central to these challenges are cryosphere dynamics, fragile mountain ecosystems, and ongoing natural hazards that highlight the need for robust projections of regional climate change. For the first time, dynamic downscaling was conducted in Central Asia at a spatial resolution of 5 km. This produced a regional dataset that incorporated periods between 1980 and 2000 and 2076 to 2096. Results show that dynamic downscaling significantly improves the simulation of temperature and precipitation across CA compared to General Circulation Models (GCMs) and other Regional Climate Models (RCMs) due to better representation of topography and related meteorological fields. Our analysis shows that there will be a significant warming trend in Central Asia with a projected increase of 6°C under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario SSP5-8.5 from 2076 to 2096. Pronounced warming is detected over mountainous areas of CA from autumn to spring, which can be explained by the snow-albedo feedback. Precipitation increases are projected from winter to spring and decreases are projected from summer to autumn.
... Fig. 1). These two mountain regions have settlements that are among the highest in elevation, with peaks that rise more than 7000 m above sea level (Alford et al., 2012;Manandhar et al., 2019). It can be seen from Fig. 1 that the northern part of the Pamir Mountain range (Tajikistan) relates to the Tien-Shan Mountain range (Kyrgyzstan). ...
... The high altitude in combination with the extremely cold climate results in permeant glaciers. Because of the accumulated glaciers, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are considered as "water towers" of Central Asia (Alford et al., 2015;Farinotti et al., 2015;Manandhar et al., 2019). ...
The high-altitude Central Asian communities (mainly from rural Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) face a high degree of energy complexity. The thematic knowledge clearly outlines that these communities hold special energy identity (information about energy requirements, energy consumption, classification of the building, energy resources, energy services, and challenges) and at the same time, energy poverty ironically exists. To mitigate energy poverty, there is an immediate need for sustainable energy transition through special energy planning. Though, the limited information about the energy identity of these communities restricts the energy transition process. The main aim of the paper was to outline the special and comparative energy profile of high-altitude Central Asian rural communities. To demonstrate the special energy profile, a novel correlative approach was developed
which synthesises the information about energy context (current energy situation and critical issues), energy resources (available sustainable and non-sustainable energy and its usage) and energy services (available energy services to meet the energy need) by considering local boundary conditions. These various parameters were studied based on the extensive literature review, the author’s interview with local people and the previous work of the authors. There is a large gap in the iterature regarding energy information about high-altitude Central Asian communities. Based on the correlative approach, the presented article was the first attempt to develop a novel framework to interpret the energy identity of high-altitude Central Asian communities and thus contribute to knowledge. The derived special energy identity will serve as a profound base to develop an energy planning
more effectively. The derived results categorised the spatial energy situation at the roof of the world. Even though access to electricity, the high-altitude Central Asian rural population suffers from unique and complex energy challenges articulated in the presented article. Energy is a costly and critical task for the local population.
To resolve this issue, sustainable energy transition is an essential element for these settlements which ensures sustainable communities from the long-term rerspective. This can be achieved by spatial energy planning for high-altitude communities (i.e. implementation of energy efficiency measures in combination with an energy supply system on a community level).
... According to the CSIRO2 GCM running under the B1 scenario, the temperature would rise consistently by 0.9 to 2.4 • C in the 2020s for all five nations, with just a slight change in precipitation. The models predict substantially higher temperatures with a mild to moderate increase in 2050 [30]. ...
Agriculture contributes the most to the economy and provides agro-ecological benefits in the environmentally unsustainable Aral Sea region, but its productivity is steadily dropping. To improve the resilience of farming communities in the region, crop diversification is proposed to enable farmers to grow high-value competitive crops and obtain more stable farm incomes. This study provides long-term, multidisciplinary analyses and strategies for strengthening crop diversification amongst farmers in the Aral Sea region. The study analyzed data provided by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the statistical yearbook of 2000–2020. According to the gross margin study findings, farmers who use diversified cropping systems made considerably higher revenues than farmers relying on mono-cropping practices. This study demonstrates that greater crop diversity contributes to the rational use of natural resources and optimization plans, environmental sustainability, and food security as important natural and socio-economic issues in this region. The study findings suggest that proper crop diversification strategies need to be developed in the Aral Sea region to improve the sustainability of farming systems with enhanced resilience to devastating environmental and climate challenges.
... However, this challenge has to be overcome as subsistence-based communities, who have contributed little to the causes of anthropogenic climate change, are the ones facing its harshest impacts (Kohler et al. 2010). Changes in mean climate and enhanced climate variability affect rural livelihoods, food systems, and infrastructure (López et al. 2017;Manandhar et al. 2018). Whereas the accuracy of instrumental climate data is often lacking in mountain environments, agropastoral communities, whose lifestyle is inherently connected to their habitat, possess deep-rooted knowledge of local weather and climate. ...
In mountain environments dimensions of climate change are unclear because of limited availability of meteorological stations. However, there is a necessity to assess the scope of local climate change, as the livelihood and food systems of subsistence-based communities are already getting impacted. To provide more clarity about local climate trends in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan, this study integrates measured climate data with community observations in the villages of Savnob and Roshorv. Taking a transdisciplinary approach, both knowledge systems were considered as equally pertinent and mutually informed the research process. Statistical trends of temperature and snow cover were retrieved using downscaled ERA5 temperature data and the snow cover product MOD10A1. Local knowledge was gathered through community workshops and structured interviews and analysed using a consensus index. Results showed, that local communities perceived increasing temperatures in autumn and winter and decreasing amounts of snow and rain. Instrumental data records indicated an increase in summer temperatures and a shortening of the snow season in Savnob. As both knowledge systems entail their own strengths and limitations, an integrative assessment can broaden the understanding of local climate trends by (i) reducing existing uncertainties, (ii) providing new information, and (iii) introducing unforeseen perspectives. The presented study represents a time-efficient and global applicable approach for assessing local dimensions of climate change in data-deficient regions.
... The conse- quences of biodiversity loss from climate change are likely to be worst for the poor and marginalized people who depend almost exclusively on natural resources. Poverty, poor infrastructure (roads, electricity, water supply, educa- tion and health care services, communication, and irriga- tion), reliance on subsistence farming and forest products for livelihoods, substandard health (high infant mortality rate and low life expectancy), and other aspects of development, render the HKH even more vulnerable to climate change as the capacity to adapt is inadequate among the inhabitants ( Manandhar et al. 2018, Negi et al. 2012). ...
This open access volume is the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. It comprises important scientific research on the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to safeguard the environment and advance people’s wellbeing. The compiled content is based on the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, experts and policymakers, brought together by the Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) under the coordination of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). This assessment was conducted between 2013 and 2017 as the first of a series of monitoring and assessment reports, under the guidance of the HIMAP Steering Committee: Eklabya Sharma (ICIMOD), Atiq Raman (Bangladesh), Yuba Raj Khatiwada (Nepal), Linxiu Zhang (China), Surendra Pratap Singh (India), Tandong Yao (China) and David Molden (ICIMOD and Chair of the HIMAP SC). This First HKH Assessment Report consists of 16 chapters, which comprehensively assess the current state of knowledge of the HKH region, increase the understanding of various drivers of change and their impacts, address critical data gaps and develop a set of evidence-based and actionable policy solutions and recommendations. These are linked to nine mountain priorities for the mountains and people of the HKH consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals.
... With initial trial operations underway since April 2016, the park management aims to hire at least 10,000 wardens from local herding families to oversee the vast region and to serve as community liaisons, bringing together the dual goals of conservation and socioeconomic development. However, as elsewhere across the Tibetan Plateau, and in the high mountains of Central Asia, the Sanjiangyuan area and its resident pastoral communities remain vulnerable to a range of factors originating outside its own geography, including the influence of climate change, such as glaciers shrinking and changing seasonality and intensity of precipitation patterns [63,[67][68][69][70]. ...
Environmental conservation has developed significantly in China over the past 20 years, including more collaborative approaches and recent advances in establishing a national parks system. This study reviews the development of protected areas in the headwaters of the Yangtze River, drawing lessons from experiences of community development and co-management approaches. Community engagement and participation in developing localized plans for natural resource utilization and conservation have been critical features of successful ventures. Government programs and policies, the emergence of grassroots civil society, and the development of herders’ cooperatives and protected areas, are all tracked, each pointing towards the significant value of inclusive biodiversity conservation approaches for meeting broadly agreed development agendas, such as achieving the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Observations from the vast, high, arid, and semi-arid lands of the Tibetan Plateau are then considered in light of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is bringing vast financial and technical resources to the world. Special attention is given to applying the lessons that have been learned in China to the mountains of Central Asia, globally recognized as a biodiversity hotspot and a water tower for large downstream populations. Keeping local people at the heart of conservation is deemed fundamentally important.
Environmental protection in China has progressed significantly in the past decades, including introduction of more collaborative approaches in the management of protected areas and the establishment of a new national park system, and many milestones have been achieved. While such developments are driven largely by national and global goals, the people who are most affected are those who reside in the protected landscapes. A range of strategies have been proposed and tried in relation to local development, with many important lessons learned, yet little has been heard to date directly from the community stakeholders themselves. In this study we report on feedback and recommendations received from focus group discussions in vicinity of China's first national park, Sanjiangyuan, regarding lived experiences of "community co-management" by Tibetan herders and local officials. Overall, the most recent National Park model is deemed successful, albeit with some notable perceived limitations. Focus group discussions' participants recommend more balanced compensation opportunities including for communities living outside but in close proximity to the park, eased restrictions on ecotourism, provision of public services for communities in the park (especially waste management and health care) and establishing a more effective compensation or insurance system to offset economic losses due to wildlife damage.
Birçok ülke küresel iklim değişikliğinin etkilerine farklı seviyelerde maruz kalmakta ve bu ülkelerin bazı sosyoekonomik ve çevresel faktörlere dayalı etkilenebilirlik seviyeleri değişiklik gösterebilmektedir. Özellikle bireyler, toplumlar ve ülkelerin iklim değişikliğinin etki ve risklerine ne kadar açık olduğu, etkilenebilirlik seviyeleri ve onlar için yüksek ya da düşük uyarlanabilir kapasitenin ne anlama geldiği ve yapılması gerekenlere dair bilgi ve farkındalık, temel yaşamsal faaliyetlerin devamlılığı için oldukça önemlidir. Bu nedenle bu derleme çalışmasında Asya, Avrupa, Afrika, Avustralasya, Kuzey, Orta ve Güney Amerika’nın yanı sıra küçük adalar ve kutup bölgeleri ile tüm bu bölgelerde yer alan ülkelerin iklim değişikliği risklerine karşı bu göstergeler dâhilinde mevcut durumları ve gelecek öngörüleri fiziki, coğrafi, sosyoekonomik ve demografik faktörler temelinde incelenmiş ve inceleme kapsamında çeşitli güncel indislere yer verilmiştir. Bu indisler hem küresel olarak hem de Türkiye açısından iklim değişikliği kaynaklı etkilenebilirlik ve risk değerlendirmesi, bu etki ve risklere maruziyet, dirençlilik ve uyarlanabilir kapasite düzeyleri açısından çeşitli yönleriyle ele alınmıştır. Çalışmadaki genel bulgular iklim değişikliği risklerinden en çok etkilenen ülkeler olarak iklim risklerine yüksek maruziyeti ve düşük kapasitesi nedeniyle Afrika ülkelerini işaret etmektedir. Diğer taraftan yüksek uyarlanabilir kapasitelerine bağlı olarak gelişmiş Avrupa ülkeleri, Amerika ve Kanada iklim risklerinden en az etkilenen yerler olarak görülmektedir. Bulgular ayrıca Türkiye’nin iklim risklerine maruziyetinin uyarlanabilir kapasitesinden daha fazla olması nedeniyle bu risklerden orta derecede etkileneceğine dikkat çekmektedir. Ancak, iklim değişikliğine bağlı gelecekte oluşabilecek güvenli su ve gıdaya erişim problemi ve etkilenebilirliği daha yüksek komşu ülkelerden Türkiye’ye kitlesel insan hareketi akışının artan nüfus baskısıyla bu etkilenebilirliği daha üst seviyeye taşıması beklenebilir.
Environmental protection in China has progressed significantly in the past decades, including introduction of more collaborative approaches in the management of protected areas and the establishment of a new national park system. Many milestones have been achieved. While such developments are driven largely by national and global goals, the people who are most affected are those who reside in the protected landscapes. A range of strategies have been proposed and tried in relation to local development, with many important lessons learned, yet little has been heard to date directly from the community stakeholders themselves. In this study we report on feedback and recommendations received from focus groups in vicinity of China’s first national park, Sanjiangyuan, regarding lived experiences of “community co-management” by Tibetan herders and local officials. Overall, the most recent National Park model is deemed successful, albeit with some notable perceived limitations. Focus group participants recommend more balanced compensation opportunities including for communities living outside but in close proximity to the paranagement and health care) and establishing a more effective compensation or insurance system to offset econok, eased restrictions on ecotourism, provision of public services for communities in the park (especially waste mmic losses due to wildlife damage.
Mountain societies in developing and low-income countries are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which can severely threaten their livelihoods. The situation of mountain communities in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountains in Central Asia is exacerbated by remote location, difficult access, and poorly maintained infrastructure as well as by a distinctly continental climate. Designing and implementing climate adaptation policies for mountainous Central Asia is hindered by the limited understanding of a wide range of environmental and socio-ecological parameters. In particular, there are major knowledge gaps on the temperature and precipitation trends in high altitudes of the Pamir and Tien Shan mountains which are the result of poor and frequently unreliable data. These knowledge and date constraints have a negative effect also on forecasting the occurrence and intensity of extreme weather events which constitute a major hazard for local communities residing in the mountain foothills. This study reviews the state of research on climate change and climate change adaptation in mountainous Central Asia, also considering temperature and precipitation projections for the region. This includes an outline of the geophysical and socio-economic conditions of mountainous Central Asia as well as a survey of climate adaptation initiatives and policies currently implemented in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain region with special consideration of their limitations and challenges. Knowledge gaps and data constraints, especially on climate-glacier-water and hazard interactions, are identified, and research and policy measures are suggested based on the study findings for improving climate change adaptation in mountainous Central Asia.
