Figure - available from: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
This content is subject to copyright. Terms and conditions apply.
Observations over a 12‐month period from 1 October 2007 to 30 September 2008 that are input to the model: (a) wind components at DS (Diamond Shoals Buoy); (b) ocean water levels at FO (FRF Ocean side) and BF (Beaufort); and (c) selected river discharges at the head of the NRE and TPRE. Site locations are shown in Figure 1.
Source publication
Pamlico Sound, a large back-barrier estuary in North Carolina, is under threat of climate change due to increased storm activity and sea-level rise. The response of this system is investigated by considering what has already happened during changes in sea-level over the late Holocene epoch. The hydrodynamic changes that occurred in response to geom...
Similar publications
Historically, the river course and coastline of the Yellow River Delta changed frequently, and many studies focused on these change trends and their driving forces. Few studies have explored the influence of historical river channels and historical coastlines on the response of modern landscape patterns. This study examines the impact of channel mi...
The Ximing Sandstone-to-No. 9 Coal succession of the Taiyuan Formation in the Linxing gas field records a complex internal architecture of a transgressive succession developed in the western coast of the late Pennsylvanian North China epeiric sea. Facies and sequence stratigraphic analyses reveal its depositional evolution from fluvial channels thr...
Globally sandy coastlines are threatened by erosion driven by climatic changes and increased storminess. Understanding how they have responded to past storms is key to help manage future coastal changes. Coastal spits around the world are particularly dynamic and therefore potentially vulnerable coastal features. Therefore how they have evolved ove...
Estuaries on wave-dominated coasts generally comprise three sedimentary environments: fluvial sands and gravels derived from the catchment; marine sands characteristic of the beaches and nearshore; and silts and clays that accumulate in the sheltered central basin. Estuarine transition to deltaic form occurs when geomorphological maturity is achiev...
Introduction: The increase in the frequency of extreme atmospheric conditions and of the global sea-level rise (SLR) rate is now an established fact (IPCC, 2013). Coastal evolution forced by SLR and storms involve phenomena such as the increased inundation of low-lying lands, shoreface and coastline erosion, displacement of natural habitats and sed...
Citations
... A growing body of literature indicates that SLR induces variations to estuarine tidal structure, including tidal range, currents, and asymmetry, and thereby to water quality (e.g., salinity), eco-geomorphology, and associated feedback loops (Dessu et al., 2018;Khojasteh et al., 2023;Mulligan et al., 2019;Rayner et al., 2021). Understanding SLR-induced changes to the tidal range (i.e., the difference between high water and low water levels), is a useful proxy to learn about the response of estuarine processes to climate change (Haigh et al., 2020;Khojasteh et al., 2021b;Talke and Jay, 2020). ...
Climate change induced sea level rise (SLR) is one of the greatest challenges threatening the sustainable management of estuaries worldwide. Current knowledge regarding SLR and estuarine hydrodynamics is primarily focused on individual case studies, which provides limited guidance on how different estuary typologies will respond to SLR. To expand the current knowledge, this research used an idealised hydrodynamic approach to analyse the tidal range dynamics of 25 real-world estuaries with diverse shapes and boundary conditions, providing insights into estuarine response to SLR-induced tidal variations. Under present-day conditions, short length estuaries with wide entrances, deep waters, strong convergence, macro-tidal conditions, low values of roughness, and low upland river inflows are likely to experience amplified tidal range patterns; whereas lengthy estuaries with narrow entrances, shallow water depths, micro/meso-tidal conditions, high values of roughness, and high upland river inflows often exhibit a mix of dampened-amplified or fully dampened tidal range patterns. Under the effects of SLR, estuarine tidal range dynamics change depending on their present-day tidal range patterns. Where the present-day tidal range pattern is either dampening, a mix of dampening/amplification, or amplification, SLR increases (up to 61 %), moderately increases (up to 26 %), and slightly decreases/increases (up to 5 %) the tidal range of estuaries, respectively. Considering the relationship between an estuary's present-day tidal range pattern and its response to SLR, the presented approach may be useful in providing an initial assessment of SLR effects in estuaries worldwide. This may help to identify sites most impacted by future SLR, and to direct decision-making towards evidence-based management approaches.
... Several high-quality bathymetric and topographic data for this study have been combined in implementing the Delft3D FM. The entire western North Atlantic Ocean built using global SRTM15_PLUS bathymetry (Tozer et al. 2019), while NCEI Bathymetric Digital Elevation Model (30 m resolution) data has been utilized to enhance the representation of the bathymetry of the barrier island and Pamlico sound (Mulligan et al. 2019). These data are merged to create an unstructured grid mesh that spans much of the west Atlantic-the model domain extends from latitude 34.0° N and longitude 78.0° W to latitude 36.5° ...
Prediction and reanalysis of storm surge rely on wind and pressure fields from either parametric tropical cyclone wind models or numerical weather model reanalysis, and both are subject to large errors during landfall. This study assesses two sets of wind/pressure fields for Hurricane Florence that made landfall along the Carolinas in September 2018, and appraises the impacts of differential structural errors in the two suites of modeled wind fields on the predictive accuracy of storm surge driven thereby. The first set was produced using Holland 2010 (H10), and the second set is the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) reanalysis created by the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Each is validated using a large surface data set collected at public and commercial platforms, and then is used as input forcing to a 2-D coastal hydrodynamic model (Delft3D Flexible Mesh) to produce storm surge along the Carolina coasts and major sounds. Major findings include the following. First, wind fields from HWRF are overall more accurate than those based on H10 for the periphery of the storm, though they exhibit limitations in resolving high wind speeds near the center. Second, applying H10 to the best track data for Florence yields an erroneously spike in wind speed on September 15th when the storm reduced to a tropical depression. Third, HWRF wind fields exhibit a progressively negative bias after landfall, likely due to deficiencies of the model in representing boundary layer processes, and to the lack of assimilation of surface product after landfall for compensating for these deficiencies. Fourth, using HWRF reanalysis as the forcings to Delft3D yields more accurate peak surges simulations, though there is severe underestimation of surge along the shoreline close to the track center. The peak surge simulations by Delft3D are biased low when driven by H10, even though over several locations the H10 model clearly overpredicts surface wind speeds. This contrast highlights the importance of resolving wind fields further away from the center in order to accurately reproduce storm surge and associated coastal flooding.
... While the SLR effects on salinity is a well-studied issue and general patterns are being elucidated (Ross et al., 2015), other important variables for benthic macroinvertebrates such as sediment still have high uncertainty. Numerical simulations of SLR influence on estuarine sediments transport suggest that for moderate scenarios (i.e., 30 cm in 2050) there is no expected change in the distribution of sediments, while for extreme scenarios (i.e., 100 cm in 2100) there is still great uncertainty about such changes due to the complexity of erosion and deposition processes (Mulligan et al., 2019). ...
The sea-level rise induced by climate change has caused impacts (e.g., floods and saline intrusion) in estuaries. In this work, we used monitoring data (salinity, sediment and taxa occurrence), simulated saline intrusion and Species Distribution Model to predict the spatial distribution of families in the estuary at two levels of SLR (0.5 m and 1 m) for two scenarios (moderate and extreme). For the simulation, we used the ensemble method applied to five models (MARS, GLM, GAM, RF and BRT). High AUC and TSS values indicated “good” to “excellent” accuracy. RF and GLM obtained the best and worst values, respectively. The model predicted local extinctions and new colonization in the upper estuarine zones. With the effects of climate change intensifying, it is extremely important that managers consider the use of predictive tools to anticipate the impacts of climate change on a local scale on species migration.
... The integration of field data and numerical modelling also helps to test, quantify and visualize the spatio-temporal changes in tidal processes resulting from changes in basin configuration (Collins et al., 2021). For instance, in depositional basins, the sedimentary record can be interpreted and numerical models can be used to confirm or enhance knowledge of these systems (Mallinson et al., 2018;Mulligan et al., 2019b). This increased knowledge of past basins will improve understanding of how tidal processes will evolve in response to today's sea-level rise, including assisting coastal areas in their planning by demonstrating how and where the tidal regime will significantly change (Hayden et al., 2020). ...
... The geological record from the innermost Curtis Sea is relatively well-constrained (Gilluly & Reeside, 1928;Pipiringos & O'Sullivan, 1978;Kreisa & Moila, 1986;Caputo & Pryor, 1991;Wilcox & Currie, 2008;Doelling et al., 2013;Danise & Holland, 2017Zuchuat et al., 2018Zuchuat et al., , 2019aDanise et al., 2020) and was used to inform and interpret series of numerical modelling experiments in Delft3D. The methods employed in this study followed common practice for hydrodynamic modelling in present-day tidal basins (Hu et al., 2009;Elias et al., 2012;Brown et al., 2014;Mulligan et al., 2015;Mulligan et al., 2019b); however, the lack of observations of water levels and currents necessitate the use of geological interpretations of palaeoenvironmental conditions. The modelling of tides in the Upper Jurassic Sundance and Curtis seas used the Oxfordian palaeogeographical map ( Fig. 1) from Deep Time MapsÔ (Colorado Plateau Geosystems Inc. Maps), which was palaeogeoreferenced using GPlates and projected on a Lambert Conformal Conic projection. ...
... Various palaeophysiographies were generated by converting the maps to a physiographic raster (Python code; Appendix A) and importing them into Deltares open-source Delft3D numerical modelling software. Delft3D is a three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation suite used for solving hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic equations (see Delft3D user manual for details), and it has been used to model a variety of coastal systems, including river deltas, beaches, estuaries, lagoons and barrier islands− inlet systems (Hu et al., 2009;Elias et al., 2012;Brown et al., 2014;Mulligan et al., 2015;Mulligan et al., 2019b). Due to the unknown true water depths and the need to investigate different realistic palaeophysiographies (Byrne et al., 2020), a series of different depth grids were generated using the colour-gradient in the original palaeogeographical map. ...
Simulating hydrodynamic conditions in palaeo‐ocean basins is needed to better understand the effects of tidal forcing on the sedimentary record. When combined with sedimentary analyses, hydrodynamic modelling can help inform complex temporal and spatial variability in the sediment distribution of tide‐dominated palaeo‐ocean basins. Herein, palaeotidal modelling of the epicontinental Upper Jurassic (160 Ma, lower Oxfordian) Sundance and Curtis Seas of North America reveals possible regional‐scale variations in tidal dynamics in response to changes in ocean tidal forcing, physiographic configuration and bottom drag coefficient. A numerical model forced with an M2 tidal constituent at the open boundary shows that the magnitude and location of tidal amplification, and the variability in current velocity and bed shear stress in the basin, were controlled by palaeophysiography. Numerical results obtained using a depth of 600 m at the ocean boundary of the system enable the prediction of major facies trends observed in the lower Curtis Formation. The simulation results also highlight that certain palaeophysiographic configurations can either permit or prevent tidal resonance, leading to an overall amplification or dampening of tides across the basin. Furthermore, some palaeophysiographic configurations generated additional tidal harmonics in specific parts of the basins. Consequently, similar sedimentary successions can emerge from a variety of relative sea‐level scenarios, and a variety of sedimentary successions may be deposited in different parts of the basin in any given relative sea‐level scenario. These results suggest that the interpretation of sedimentary successions deposited in strongly tide‐influenced basins should consider changes in tidal dynamics in response to changing sea level and basin physiography.
... Estuarine processes are largely controlled by the interaction between climate-related changes in sea level, environmental factors, such as the oceanographic regime, sediment availability, and tectonics, as well as anthropogenic impacts [14][15][16][17][18][19]. The interplay of these factors results in a variety of different estuarine settings, ranging from wavedominated, microtidal estuaries to macrotidal estuaries with extensive gently sloping coastal plains [14]. ...
The rapid advance of remote sensing technology during the last few decades provides a new opportunity for measuring detectable estuarine spatial change. Although estuarine surface area and convergence are important hydraulic parameters often used to predict long-term estuarine evolution, the majority of automated analyses of channel plan view dynamics have been specifically written for riverine systems and have limited applicability to most of the estuaries in the world. This study presents MorphEst, a MATLAB-based collection of analysis tools that automatically measure estuarine planform geometry. MorphEst uses channel masks to extract estuarine length, convergence length, estuarine shape, and areal gain and loss of estuarine surface area due to natural or human factors. Comparisons indicated that MorphEst estimates closely matched with independent measurements of estuarine surface area (r = 0.99) and channel width (r = 0.92) of 39 estuaries along the South Korean coast. Overall, this toolbox will help to improve the ability to solve research questions commonly associated with estuarine evolution as it introduces a tool to automatically measure planform geometric features from remotely sensed imagery.
... Delft3D is a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic simulation suite, which has notably been used to model different coastal systems, including river deltas, beaches, estuaries, lagoons, and barrier islands-inlet systems (e.g. Hu et al., 2009;Elias et al., 2012;Brown et al., 2014;Mulligan et al., 2015;Mulligan et al., 2019b). Due to the unknown true water depths and the need to investigate different realistic PBC scenarios, a series of different depth grids were generated using the colour-gradient in the original paleogeographic map. ...
Simulating hydrodynamic conditions in palaeo-ocean basins is needed to better understand the effects of tidal forcing on the sedimentary record. When combined with sedimentary analyses, hydrodynamic modelling can help inform complex temporal and spatial variability in the sediment distribution of tide-dominated palaeo-ocean basins. Herein, palaeotidal modelling of the epicontinental Upper Jurassic (160 Ma, lower Oxfordian) Sundance and Curtis seas of North America reveals possible regional-scale variations in tidal dynamics in response to changes in ocean tidal forcing, physiographic configuration and bottom drag coefficient. A numerical model forced with an M2 tidal constituent at the open boundary shows that the magnitude and location of tidal amplification, and the variability in current velocity and bed shear stress in the basin, were controlled by palaeophysiography. Numerical results obtained using a depth of 600 m at the ocean boundary of the system enable the prediction of major facies trends observed in the lower Curtis Formation. The simulation results also highlight that certain palaeophysiographic configurations can either permit or prevent tidal resonance, leading to an overall amplification or dampening of tides across the basin. Furthermore, some palaeophysiographic configurations generated additional tidal harmonics in specific parts of the basins. Consequently, similar sedimentary successions can emerge from a variety of relative sea-level scenarios, and a variety of sedimentary successions may be deposited in different parts of the basin in any given relative sea-level scenario. These results suggest that the interpretation of sedimentary successions deposited in strongly tide-influenced basins should consider changes in tidal dynamics in response to changing sea level and basin physiography.
... The model is forced using a combination of observations and large-scale atmospheric models. Water levels are prescribed at the boundaries used spatially interpolated observations at the USACE FRF pier (located ∼500 m offshore) and the Beaufort Marine Lab tide gauge stations ( Figure 1 FP and BF), similar to the approach used by Clunies et al. (2017) and Mulligan et al. (2019). Observed 2-D wave spectra from four offshore directional wave buoys (Figure 1 OB, DS, VB, and CH) are interpolated along the domain boundary for offshore waves. ...
During extreme storms, both wind‐driven changes in water levels and intense precipitation can contribute to flooding. Particularly on low‐lying coastal plains, storm‐driven flooding can cover large areas, resulting in major damage. To investigate the roles of rainfall and storm surge on coastal flooding, a coupled flow‐wave model (Delft3D‐SWAN) that includes precipitation is used to simulate two major storm events. The modeling system is applied over a domain covering coastal North Carolina, USA, including the large Albemarle‐Pamlico estuarine system, and a long and narrow back‐barrier estuary (Currituck Sound [CS]) that experiences major water level variations is investigated in detail. A high‐resolution (50 m) grid with eight vertical layers is used to simulate the conditions during Tropical Storm Hermine and Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Hindcasts (winds, pressure, and precipitation) from eight different atmospheric models are used as atmospheric input conditions, and the results are compared with detailed observations of surface waves, currents, and water levels from sensors mounted on five monitoring platforms in CS. Results show that major differences exist between wind fields producing variations coastal conditions. Precipitation directly on the water surface had a large effect on water levels and produced a larger inundated area. These results help to understand the important contributions of each physical process (precipitation, wind‐driven surge, and waves) to circulation and water levels, and provide guidance on the impact of atmospheric forcing conditions on back‐barrier environments during hurricanes.
... Later, they changed in shape, size and hydrodynamic characters when they reached almost sea level still stand [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Even shorter-term climatic variations [9] have often influenced the lagoon systems due to changes in coastal hydrodynamics and freshwater inflow [10,11]. ...
The study of Burano paleo-lagoon—Wetland of International Value, has allowed us to better define and extend the reconstruction of the Holocene paleoenvironmental evolution of the paleo-lagoons previously studied, located on the Tyrrhenian coast in central Italy. The investigated area is located in Southern Tuscany near the Burano Lake. The area was investigated by means of field surveys, historical maps, 16 coring, sedimentological, palynological and microfaunal analyses (foraminifera and ostracods), combined with robust geochronological control provided by 52 datings (14C and OSL). The study allowed us to reconstruct the environmental and morphological evolution of the Burano paleo-lagoon during the last 8000 years and to hypothesize a Rise Sea Level (RSL) curve. In this context, 5 main evolutionary phases have been recognized. (1) before 7.5 ka BP in the southern-eastern part, an open lagoon developed; (2) ~6 ka BP a barrier-lagoon system develops throughout the entire area and the lagoon progressively changed from open to closed one; (3) ~5 ka BP the width of the lagoon increases and a lacustrine facies appears along the entire axis of the coastal basin; (4) ~4 ka BP the lacustrine facies shows a discontinuous distribution respect to the previous phase; (5) during the last 4 ka the lacustrine facies disappear and the lagoon turns into a wetland area.
Salinity distributions and gradients within an estuary are of great socioeconomic and ecological importance. In this study, a well-validated and process-based hydrodynamic model (Delft3D) was applied to investigate the salinity distributions and variations in the Yangtze Estuary subject to river discharge regulation by the Three Gorges Reservoir and morphological evolution of the estuary. The results indicate that the regulation of river discharge is the controlling factor for salinity variations in the estuary. Following construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the salinity significantly decreased during the dry season and slightly increased during the flood season. The morphological evolution of the estuary induced spatial salinity variations and affected the salinity in the estuarine wetlands (the Jiuduansha Shoal and East Chongming Mudflat). The salinity in the Jiuduansha Shoal increased from 1998 to 2010, whereas it decreased from 2010 to 2018. During the period 1998 to 2018, the salinity in the East Chongming Mudflat exhibited an increasing trend. These findings provide implications for management of water resources and wetlands in the Yangtze and other similar estuaries.
