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The results of this study indicate that during the 1990s urbanization was the dominant process in inter-regional migration, and residential suburbanization prevailed at the intra-metropolitan level.These tendencies are new and different from the trend existing during the Soviet era.These urbanization and suburbanization trends correspond closely wi...
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The concern that possible linkages exist between changes in mire habitats and long-term dynamics of populations of several mire bird species have raised many questions about the current conservation status of valuable raised bog habitats in Estonia. The results of long-term bird census studies in Nigula bog indicate a negative trend in the number o...
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... While population migration is a pivotal quantitative factor, the source of migration holds less significance, encompassing the urban core population, the functional urban area, or even individuals outside this area (i. e., Gnatiuk, 2017;Kontuly & Tammaru, 2006;Salvati et al., 2018;Slaev, Nedović-Budić, Krunić, Petrić, & Daskalova, 2018). This term, often referred to development outside the city or growth into peripheral areas, is prevalent in the literature, potentially due to the challenges associated with capturing the source of migration as seen in type A. Determining the source would necessitate continuous statistical and sociological research at an intricate level of detaila practice not widely undertaken in most CEE countries. ...
Amidst the political and economic transformation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) since 1989, suburbanization has emerged as a pivotal force in reshaping the urbanized landscape. This transformative process has spurred heightened interest among researchers, prompting a comprehensive analysis of the contemporary literature on suburbanization in CEE. So far, existing scientific research employed various methodologies to address the issues of suburbanization in CEE, highlighting the need for a systematization, eliminating terminological confusion and maintaining greater scientific precision. This study, employing the systematic review method and meta-analysis, meticulously examined 120 different articles to unravel the methodologies, linguistic nuances, and diverse definitions characterizing suburbanization in the region. The findings unveiled three dominant directions in defining suburbanization within CEE countries. Type A delineates suburbanization as the outflow of population from urban core to its periphery within an urban functional area. Conversely, Type B contends that the manifestation of suburbanization occurs with accelerated growth in suburbs relative to the urban core, emphasizing that the source direction of migration is not a determinative factor. The most intricate category, Type C, encapsulates Type B and introduces additional layers of internal suburbanization processes. This study lays a foundation for future research endeavours, underscoring the importance of precision in defining suburbanization and the explicit articulation of research procedures. As suburbanization continues to play a pivotal role in the evolution of urban landscapes in CEE, future studies are encouraged to delve into more nuanced analyses, offering a deeper understanding of this multifaceted phenomenon.
... (Šuška, 2012) and regions of other major economic centres (Stehlíková & Pánik, 2012;Rychtárik & Latta, 2015). Such a trend can also be observed in other metropolitan regions of post-socialist states such as Tallinn (Kontuly & Tammaru, 2006;Tammaru & Leetmaa, 2007) or Riga (Bērziņš & Krišjāne, 2008). Spatial differentiation in housing prices could also significantly affect the spatial patterns of migration of residents with a lower social status, who tended to deconcentrate from metropolitan regions (cf. . ...
The collapse of the socialist regime led to significant changes in migration patterns, garnering considerable attention in geographical research. However, despite the increased interest, many studies on internal migration lack a detailed analysis of its spatial aspects. Spatial autocorrelation methods can reveal spatial patterns, but so far they have not been applied in the detailed research of internal migration in post-socialist countries. The aim of this study is to explore the spatial patterns of internal migration with regard to intra-regional and inter-regional migration processes using selected indicators of spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I, Anselin local Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* statistic) with Slovakia as a case study. A partial goal is to evaluate the benefits of applying these methods in the assessment of internal migration. Local indicators of spatial autocorrelation demonstrated significant differentiation of both intra-regional and inter-regional migration processes. The dominant intra-regional process is the decentralization of the population, which is very intensive in the regions of the largest towns and cities. Inter-regional migration displays spatial polarisation, emphasizing the importance of the location of key economic centres. The methodology employed in this study clearly displays the clusters of municipalities with above-average and below-average values. This approach enables the identification and cartographic interpretation of specific municipalities where migration contributes the most to the spatial redistribution of the population. The study serves as a valuable framework for similar analyses, emphasizing the broader applicability of spatial autocorrelation methods in studying migration patterns.
... With this perspective in mind, the empirical analysis of urban development may benefit from the comparative scrutiny of population change over time and space, as available at an appropriate geographical unit from general censuses (Aplerovich 1983;Schwizer 1985;Kawashima 1986). Regardless of the variable's choice (e.g., Kontuly and Tammaru 2006) or the level of analysis of urban development, a systematic verification of the SCT is achieved by dividing the urban area into distance zones from a central point of the core city and grouping the population residing in the Economies 2024, 12, 202 5 of 14 municipalities (or settlements) falling within these zones, in line with mainstream empirical studies (e.g., Morelli et al. 2014). ...
Being intertwined with economic development, urbanization determines the present and future development path of regions and countries. The intimate relationship between urban expansion and economic development is of particular interest in the case of large regions with complex (and mostly non-linear) socio-demographic dynamics and a relevant primacy in the metropolitan system of a given country. Typical examples of advanced economies with settlement systems characterized by a high degree of city primacy are peripheral and disadvantaged European countries such as Portugal and Greece. For instance, the administrative region of Attica—centered on Athens, the Greek capital city—represents the largest metropolitan area of the country, hosting almost 3.8 million inhabitants in 2021 (36.2% of the Greek population). In this context, this study investigates the internal redistribution of the resident population in metropolitan Athens and the progressive development of satellite cities over a relatively longtime interval, testing the assumptions of the Spatial Cycle Theory (SCT) between 1951 and 2021 and predicting future development paths up to 2051. To investigate past, present, and future intra-regional population trends, we used data released from decadal (1951–2021) censuses and demographic forecasts for the years 2031, 2041, and 2051. Being in line with the SCT, the empirical results of our study document how demographic dynamics of individual centers influence largely—and independently—the long-term development of metropolitan regions, both with policy/planning regulation and in conditions of non-intervention (spontaneous urban growth).
... Existing studies have examined the demographic characteristics of cross-level migrants at certain stages of urbanisation, including education, gender, income, age and the presence of children (Geyer, 2003;Heikkila¨, 2003;Kok, 1999;Kontuly and Tammaru, 2006;Lewis et al., 1991). Geyer and Kontuly (1993) proposed the concept of productionism and environmentalism within the framework of differential urbanisation. ...
... Although the concept of productionism and environmentalism has been confirmed during the secondary city stage and the small city stage in some countries, conflicting findings have been observed during the primate city stage. For instance, during the primate city stage in Estonia, 7 migrants moving up the urban hierarchy were predominantly young, highly educated and female (Kontuly and Tammaru, 2006). Moreover, in Hungary and Poland during the primate city stage, 8 not only high-income individuals moved down the urban hierarchy but also low-income individuals, who found life in the host city challenging (Kok, 1999). ...
... Source: Author. (Kontuly and Tammaru, 2006;Mu et al., 2022). This is consistent with the notion that migrants step off the escalator region at a later stage of careers (Fielding, 1992). ...
The population density in megacities in China gives rise to challenges, such as traffic congestion and soaring housing prices. A trend of leaving primate cities can be observed as well as a population increase in secondary cities. These trends might point to an urbanization transition from the primate city stage to the secondary city stage. Research is needed to determine at which stage of urbanization China currently resides, and who are migrating across the different levels of cities in this stage. In order to answer these questions, the current study combines the theory of differential urbanization and migrant selectivity, and analyzes city-level migration patterns and demographic characteristics of migrants across the urban hierarchy. Findings indicate that China is currently in the intermediate primate city stage, where the upward migration across the urban hierarchy is driven by younger adults with higher education and income, and a lower likelihood of marriage or parenthood. Building upon global evidence, this research further extends the theory of differential urbanization by incorporating migrant selectivity into the interpretation of urbanization stages. It reveals that educated migrants tend to concentrate and move up the urban hierarchy in the primate city stage, but might deconcentrate during the secondary and small city stages. This study offers practical insights for policymakers at the national and city levels to develop population growth plans, adjust targeted migration policies and respond to future urbanization processes.
... Environmentalism refers to those motives of migration whereby people improve their social and residential well-being, such as seeking opportunities for larger homes, safer neighbourhoods for raising children, or more pleasant and quiet environment (Geyer and Kontuly, 1996). These factors become more important with age and drive relocations from major cities, both to the suburbs as well as to non-MRs (Feijten et al., 2008;Jauhiainen, 2009;Kontuly and Tammaru, 2006). However, as house prices in large cities continue to rise, lower-income households and young people seeking affordable housing may find themselves priced out of the housing markets in large cities (Rodríguez, 2024). ...
This study examines how socio-spatial inequalities are associated with population concentration and de-concentration processes shaped by residential mobility. The study explores whether the patterns of residential mobility vary in different settlement system contexts. It reviews the cyclical urbanization models and the inequality of opportunities they provide in urban, suburban, and counter-urban contexts for individuals in various life stages. The theoretical models are tested by analysing individual-level data covering the entire populations of Estonia and Lithuania – two countries with similar social but different settlement system contexts. The study utilizes linked individual-level data from the 2011 and 2021 censuses, and harmonized variables in the two countries. The results show that individuals engaging in concentration, suburbanization, or de-concentration have distinct characteristics, with little differences between countries characterized with different settlement systems. While the life-course approach assumes that young people are most likely to urbanize (concentrate), those in family ages shift towards suburbanization, and older individuals tend to counter-urbanize (de-concentrate), our findings challenge these assumptions, demonstrating that young adults have a high likelihood of migration in all three directions. These findings call for more in-depth studies on the interplay between age and migration patterns that would go beyond the life-course approach and delve deeper into the residential decision-making of young people.
... Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, migration and urban development have been thoroughly studied in the regions of individual cities. Attention has been paid to the regions of capital cities with more than a million inhabitants (Prague, Warsaw, Budapest, Sofia), and even of some smaller (Tallin, Ljubljana) (e.g., Hamilton, Dimitrovska-Andrews, and Pichler-Milanović 2005;Kontuly and Tammaru 2006;Hirt 2007;Gentile, Tammaru, and Van Kempen 2012;Stanilov and Sýkora 2014). ...
... Our study covers the period between 1989 and 2021. Estonia was modestly urbanised in 1989, but since then it has undergone a rapid population concentration to higher levels of the settlement system, with the mainstream flow of domestic migrants targeting the capital city's urban region (Kontuly and Tammaru, 2006). However, counter-urbanisation has also been important. ...
... Migration intensity shows the number of moves which occurred for each thousand inhabitants between the five levels of the settlement system. We proceed with the 'Migration Concentration Index' (MCI) analysis which was developed by Kontuly and Tammaru (2006). MCI measures the balance between upwards and downwards moves within the settlement system between pairs of system levels. ...
This paper aims to shed new light on changes in counter-urbanisation over the past three decades. A specific focus will be placed on new features of domestic migration to non-metropolitan rural areas which have become apparent during the global coronavirus pandemic. We focus on the intensity, origins, and destinations of counter-urban moves, and on the individual characteristics of counter-urban movers. Based on a case study of Estonia, our main findings show, firstly, that urbanisation has been the predominant migration trend across the past thirty years, with the main destination of domestic migrants being the capital city and its urban region. Secondly, we find that counter-urban moves have gained importance over time and especially during the periods of economic bust. The most important new features of counter-urbanisation during the pandemic relate to the increased migration of families with children and people who have high-income occupations to non-metropolitan rural areas. These new features of domestic migration could serve to slow down or even reverse the long-term problem of population aging in the countryside and the loss of educated people there.
... (Encyclopedia Britannica, 2021). Until the mid-twentieth, in Western countries, the concentration of population and economic activities was in the core city, but subsequently, urbanisation emerged as a new trend (Kontuly & Tammaru, 2006;Woodbury, 1955). ...
Urban sprawl is a universal phenomenon and can be seen as a city’s low-density and haphazard development from the centre to suburban areas, and it has different adverse environmental effects at local and regional scales, including increasing the cost of infrastructure. Geospatial data and technology can be used to measure urban sprawl and predict urban expansion. This technology can shed light on the characteristics, causes, and consequences of urban expansion. Unlike other studies, the methodology proposed in this paper works on a regional level rather than an individual city. In this article, Land Use Land Cover changes and the magnitude and direction of city-region sprawl in the Isfahan Metropolitan area were modelled using a multi-temporal analysis of remote sensing imagery. Shannon’s Entropy was used to quantify city-region dispersion during the last fifty years. A Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov Chain Analysis were then used to forecast future city-region sprawl based on past patterns and physical constraints. The results revealed that this region has been suffering from sprawl during this period in different directions. Moreover, it will continue in specific directions due to several economic, political, demographic, environmental, and (urban) planning factors. In addition, the size and speed of city-region sprawl were higher than core city sprawl. The proposed approach can be generalized for other city-regions with a similar spatial structure.
... V rámci regiónov začalo dochádzať k decentralizácii obyvateľstva a v celých regionálnych systémoch sa prejavila koncentrácia obyvateľstva do regiónov najväčších miest (cf. Kontuly a Tammaru, 2006, Hirt, 2007, Stanilov a Sýkora, 2014, Ubarevičienė a van Ham, 2017, Novotný a Pregi, 2018, Dolińska et al., 2020. Decentralizačné tendencie sa pritom nedotýkali len regiónov najväčších miest, čo potvrdzuje aj prípad Nitry (Czaková, 2009, Repaská, Vilinová a Šolcová, 2017. ...
... This suburb occurs due to the activities of residents who penetrate from the center to the rural. According to [8], the suburbs occurred due to changes in the economic structure of the region. This change in economic structure encourages changes in the composition of people's work from the agricultural-based to industrial-based (such as tourism) with a variety of professions. ...
As one of the world cultural heritage designated by UNESCO, Subak in Bali experienced various challenges in the framework of its existence. Subak is recognized as a traditional Balinese agricultural institution based on local water management. The risks that subak must face when in the circle of international tourism practices because Bali is a tourist destination that is very reliable by the Government of Indonesia in order to obtain foreign exchange. The purpose of this article is to reveal the problems faced by as a local genious irrigation system. Especially related to spatial function changes that occur in Northern Kuta tourism area, Bali, by identifying the distribution of subak, composition, and typology of existing actors related to their interest in water, sub-urban development patterns, and subak alienation practices. Spatial approach adopted to determine spatial changes that occur ranging from agriculture to tourism. Data collection based on spatial analysis with GIS application, observation, interview, and focus group discussion. Spatial changes were found to be caused by the penetration of accommodation development, accessibility, and communal facilities. This situation occurs because of the limited tourism space in the center of tourism areas or tourism business areas (TBD) such as Kuta and Legian. There has been a transformation of spatial functions: from agricultural functions to cultural-service functions. The change in spatial planning indicates a tendency to shift the socio-cultural community around Kuta Tourism Area from agrarian to sub-urban characteristics. Thus, it has an impact on the existence of subak as the last bastion of sustainable tourism development in Bali.