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... all countries have available data on NUTS3 level; in such cases country data was used. In this case weights were defined for particular WD in order to allocate country water demand value to NUTS3 level ( Table 5). For domestic water demand data weight is population density (population number for each NUTS 3 respectively). ...Context 2
... domestic water demand data weight is population density (population number for each NUTS 3 respectively). Weight for agricultural water demand is a percentage of agricultural areas in particular NUTS 3 and for industrial water demand is a percentage of industrial areas in particular NUTS 3 area ( Table 5). Scales of water demand data and methodology for allocation of country level data to NUTS 3 regions are presented in Table 6. ...Similar publications
Los cambios en los patrones climáticos como consecuencia del cambio climático podrían poner en riesgo la seguridad alimentaria, afectando así principalmente a familias vulnerables y pobres. En este capítulo se examina el impacto que podría tener el cambio climático en la seguridad alimentaria de hogares agrícolas en Paraguay. Para ello, el análisis...
Durant les dernières années, l’impact du changement climatique et la pression exercée sur les
secteurs des ressources en eaux ont été largement étudiés. Au Maroc, la croissance de la population
a été associée à la diminution et la rareté d’eau de surface et souterraine. C’est pourquoi, la gestion
les ressources hydriques présentent un grand défi...
Citations
... Decreases of the water table, reduction of water resources, reduced spring discharge and reduced river flows have been documented in many parts of the world over the last decades (Collins, 2008;Aguilera and Murillo, 2009;Hidalgo et al., 2009;Piao et al., 2010;Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014). Concerns over the negative impacts of climate change on groundwater and water resources specifically in Europe have been raised in several studies (Brouyère et al., 2004;Yustres et al., 2013;Cen cur Curk et al., 2014;Kløve et al., 2014;Pr av alie, 2014;Pr av alie et al., 2014). Further contributing to negative impacts of climate change on groundwater quality are increases of groundwater temperature (Taylor and Stefan, 2009;Kløve et al., 2014) and subsequent changes to chemical reactions that occur in soils (Figura et al., 2011;Haldorsen et al., 2012;Kløve et al., 2012). ...
... We are using Thornthwaite's (1948) method to calculate monthly potential evapotranspiration data (ET0). This metric is widely used in hydrology and agricultural studies (Zhao et al., 2013;Cen cur Curk et al., 2014;Cheval et al., 2017). Grids of ET0 were calculated from 1-km resolution average monthly temperature grids for current and projected future periods as described in the previous section according to the following formula: ...
... Specifically, we use the Budyko equation to integrate the annual data of ET0 and annual precipitation for the three periods, for estimations if AET0 for Europe. The AET metric is widely applied in hydrology, climatology and agriculture ( Cen cur Curk et al., 2014;Nistor and Porumb-Ghiurco, 2015) and is also relevant for water balance studies. For example, Roderick and Farquhar (2011) have used an adapted Budyko equation to estimate the changes in the water availability for catchmentscale studies in Australia. ...
Europe’s climate is diverse and the current climate change has certainly impacted on environmental components. The climate variables are important for several aspects with respect to landscape and natural resources. In order to define the climatic conditions, these parameters are widely used as diagnostic tools for climate indices. In this work, five climate indices (Johansson continentality index, the Kerner oceanity index, the De Martonne aridity index, Pinna combinative index, and UNEP aridity index) were analyzed at the spatial scale of Europe with the aim to produce humidity–aridity maps of the continent. The indices were explored for a climate normal period that mainly precedes the anthropogenic warming signal (1961–90) and for future periods (2011–40 and 2041–70) using the CMIP5 multimodel projections. The analyzed indices indicate the southern part of Europe to be dry, semidry, and Mediterranean climates, while the northern and elevated areas are humid to extremely humid. The South Balkan Peninsula, the Pannonian basin, central and southern Iberian Peninsula, the south of the Italian Peninsula and the Mediterranean Islands, as well as the southeastern sides of Europe experience dry climates considering all climatic indices. On the contrary, the British Isles, the Scandinavian Peninsula, the Alps, the Dinaric Alps, Pyrenees, Carpathians Mountains, and northorn Iberian Peninsula are listed as humid climates. According to the findings of the climate analysis, the continent of Europe shows significant variation between past and future, where changes up to 4% were identified for the De Martonne aridity index and 8% for the Kerner oceanity index and Pinna combinative index. The shifts in the spatial distribution of dry classes indicate that they are influenced by climate change. This study may be of benefit for scientists, policy makers in environmental domain, and for natural resources management and climate change mitigation planning.
... Cenčur Curk et al. (2014) report the spatial analysis for groundwater resources in southeast Europe, while Civita (2005) indicated some methods to evaluate spring variability. Based on GIS applications, Civita and De Maio (1998) and Civita et al. (1999) used the SINTACS method for groundwater vulnerability mapping. ...
... The values of vulnerability factor and the hydrogeological properties of the aquifers are in line with the hydrogeological studies, most of them carried out in the Mediterranean basin area (Civita, 2005;Čenčur Curk et al., 2014). The PIC reflects the water quantity sensitivity in terms of aquifer recharge, but also the water quality sensitivity, in the sense of the pollutants transferred into the media (Čenčur Curk et al., 2014). Thus for each aquifer type a proper PIC was assigned in correspondence with the hydrogeology literature (Civita, 2005 (Kc) of the land cover and the PLI which may occur through different types of ecosystems. ...
Groundwater vulnerability in the Iberian Peninsula under climate change
... This method assesses evapotranspiration by using the only the mean monthly temperature data. Even it has been used since the mid-20th century, this approach is still recognized as being appropriate for long-term studies requiring evapotranspiration estimates (Baltas, 2007;Čenčur Curk et al., 2014) and is suitable for climate and hydrological studies at a spatial scale (Zhao et al., 2013;Cheval et al., 2017). ...
This paper presents a modified Budyko equation (Budyko DOWNSCALED) for assessing actual evapotranspiration (AET0). The approach is tested by using 100 controlled and homogeneous
meteorological stations located in the Emilia-Romagna region from North of Italy. A period of 55 years, from 1961-1990 and 1991-2015, was analyzed as long-term datasets of monthly values of
precipitations, maximum and minimum temperatures. These data have allowed AET0 to be computed both at the yearly and the monthly scale with the Budyko ORIGINAL and Budyko DOWNSCALED
formula, respectively. Results of both methods have been compared at the yearly scale, demonstrating that the Budyko DOWNSCALED approach almost correctly reproduces the annual AET0 values (R2
equal to 0.77 and 0.73 for 1990s and 2015s, respectively) even if slightly underestimated (by 119 mm for 1990s and by 136 mm for 2015s). Further, monthly AET0 values were aggregated over a baseline period (between 1961 and 1990: 1990s) and a recent period (between 1991 and 2015: 2015s). In both baseline and recent periods, AET0 is higher in the summer months (May to September), while it is
almost nil in winter season (January, February, and December). Monthly values of AET0 did not increase over the recent period as a result of increased temperatures. Further, this study contributes to
the future management of water resources in the region.
... This method implies the mean monthly air temperature data. Even if is old, this methods is used often in hydrology and climate studies at regional scale and for long period (Zhao et al., 2013;Čenčur Curk et al., 2014;. Based on monthly ET0, the seasonal ET0 was calculated and further, the seasonal ETc was determined. ...
Evapotranspiration is an important indicator in hydrology, agriculture, and climate. The classical methods to compute the evapotranspiration incorporate climate data of temperature and precipitation. Thornthwaite and Budyko approaches, therefore called here TBA, are the most applied methods for monthly potential evapotranspiration (ET0) respective actual evapotranspiration (AET0). In this study, we have compared the differences between ET0 and AET0 carried out with TBA methods with the crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and actual crop evapotranspiration (AETc) carried out with new methods of TBA applied at spatial scale (TBSS) including the land cover data. Mean monthly rainfall and mean monthly air temperature from 24 meteorological stations located in the Uttar Pradesh State from India were analyzed together with the land cover data to observe and analyse the spatial distributions and differences in evapotranspiration pattern. The study was conducted for 1951 – 2000 period including seasonal analysis. The results indicates that during the mid-season, the ET0 reaches highest values (856.25 mm) while in the same period, the ETc indicates values about 1343.44 mm. The differences between seasonal ET0 and ETc were observed also for the initial and end seasons, with significant increases in evapotranspiration (about 200 mm). Interestingly, during the cold season, the ET0 has higher values than ETc with about 20 mm. As consequences of seasonal increases of the ETc, the annual ETc and AETc indicate higher values than annual ET0 and AET0. These aspects may imply the reduction of runoff and water availability in the study area. Moreover, these findings highlight the importance of land cover pattern in the calculation of evapotranspiration and water balance. The results are illustrates that the applied methodology including the land cover data is more reliable for regional scale and water management investigation rather than the classic methods.
... The ET 0 for Varanasi district during the period 1941-2000 was calculated using mean monthly air temperature data by the Thornthwaite (1948) method (Equation 2). This method is very valuable at the regional scale, not only in climatological matters but also in hydrogeological and agricultural studies, for a long-term period (Zhao et al., 2013;Čenčur Curk et al., 2014;Cheval et al., 2017). Dezsi et al. (2018) have used the Thornthwaite method in a study on evapotranspiration and water availability in Europe. ...
... The Budyko approach (Equation 10) (Budyko, 1974) was used to calculate the AET c using the annual ET c and precipitation data. Through Budyko's formula, the water balance could be determined and this approach is significant to know if the heat energy is enough to produce the evaporation from the precipitation data (Gerrits et al., 2009;Čenčur Curk et al., 2014). The vegetation evapotranspiration was considered in the AET c calculation by including ET c in the formula of aridity index (Equation 11). ...
... Water availability was determined for the 1950s and 1980s from the difference in the annual precipitation and the AET c calculated for the same subperiods. The infiltration process for a long-term period could be neglected (Čenčur Curk et al., 2014) considering that the infiltration is a transitional function of permeability. The mathematical calculations at the spatial scale (1 km 2 resolution) for the annual and seasonal ET c , as well as water availability (Equation 12), were performed using the Raster Calculator function available in Spatial Analyst Tools from the ArcGIS environment. ...
Abstract Evapotranspiration and water availability are driven by changing climate and land cover parameters. In the present study, climatological records and land cover data were analysed simultaneously to accomplish the spatial distributions of climate change effects on water resources in Varanasi district, north India. Humidity–aridity was assessed by Lang's rain factor and De Martonne's aridity index, based on mean monthly rainfall and air temperature from seven meteorological stations. The climate change effect on water resources was evaluated using a 5 × 5 matrix that includes water availability and the aridity index by considering two time periods: 1941–1970 (1950s) and 1971–2000 (1980s). The methodology is based on seasonal crop evapotranspiration (ETc) (initial, mid‐season, end season and cold season) and annual water availability calculations. The high values (≤ 1,045 mm) of ETc were identified during the mid‐season stage. Water availability indicates decreases in the maximums from 718 to 636 mm during the two analysed periods, with a negative impact at the spatial scale. Lang's rain factor (
... Over the last decades, numerous problems related to climate change and environment occurred (IPCC, 2001;Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014). Most of these problems are coming from the climate warming (Haeberli et al., 1999) at global level and in several regions (Čenčur Curk et al., 2014;Cheval et al., 2017). IPCC (2001), Stocks et al. (1998), Shaver et al. (2000), Stavig et al. (2005), The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling (2014) claimed the increases of mean air temperature and decreases of precipitation amounts in different regions of the world. ...
... IPCC (2001), Stocks et al. (1998), Shaver et al. (2000), Stavig et al. (2005), The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling (2014) claimed the increases of mean air temperature and decreases of precipitation amounts in different regions of the world. In Europe, the southern and south-eastern regions are facing reductions of precipitation and waters recharge, especially for the current period (2020s) and the mid-century (2050s) (Čenčur Curk et al., 2014;Cheval et al., 2017). At high latitudes, the climate warming affected the glaciers and ice masses (Kargel et al., 2005;Oerlemans, 2005;Shahgedanova et al., 2005;Dong et al., 2013;Xie et al., 2013;Elfarrak et al., 2014), while in the temperate zones and tropics, the climate variation and anthropic factors have major impact on the agriculture, landscape and hydrology. ...
... Negative impact on groundwater due to climate change was observed by using the water table measurements and by monitoring the spring discharge (Aguilera and Murillo, 2009;Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014). Čenčur Curk et al. (2014) indicated the areas with high impact of climate change on the groundwater vulnerability in the South-East of Europe. ...
Groundwater recharge depends generally on precipitation. In this paper, a GIS procedure was applied to assess the climate change effect on groundwater recharge in the Grand Est region, France. The analysis comprises high‐resolution climate models, which reflect the long‐term climatological regime. The hydrological properties include aquifers, land cover, and terrain morphology data, which were used to develop the potential infiltration map of the study area. Two parameters, the De Martonne Aridity Index and the effective precipitation, were combined into 5 X 5 matrix to assess the climate change effect on groundwater recharge during past (1990s), present (2020s) and future periods (2050s). The present and future intense aridization and the depletion of the effective precipitation (below 650 mm) reveal the negative effects of climate change on aquifers recharge in the Grand Est region. The areas with high and very high climate effects will increase in the 2020s and 2050s. These areas extend mainly in the western, north‐central, and north‐eastern parts of the region occupying the Rhine, Aube, and Marne Valleys. The medium effect could be found in the central, southern, and north‐western parts, while the low impact on groundwater recharge was verified in the north‐western and south‐eastern parts of the region. The area with low effects of climate change extends mostly in the Vosges and Ardennes Mountains. These findings contribute to the long‐term hydrogeological studies in the Grand Est region.
... Appropriate pattern of groundwater vulnerability classes is verified during all three periods (Figs. 5 and 6, Supplementary material SM 10). Our results are in line with the groundwater vulnerability maps of South East Europe, carried out by Čenčur Curk et al. (2014). They have applied spatial analysis by weights using the ArcGIS environment. ...
... Corine Land Cover classes and relative pollution load index applied in the CLC2000 and 2012 in Europe. Source:Wochna et al. (2011);Čenčur Curk et al. (2014);Nistor et al. (2015). ...
... Corine Land Cover classes and relative pollution load index applied in the future scenarios in Europe. Source:Wochna et al. (2011);Čenčur Curk et al. (2014);Nistor et al. (2015). ...
The present contribution aimed to propose a method to determine the groundwater vulnerability to climate change at spatial scale of Europe. This approach combines the aquifers geology, terrain morphology, and quality monitoring status of Nitrate (NO3) and Arsenic (As) with the environmental data of climate and land cover to generate the groundwater vulnerability map of Europe. High-resolution climate models and land cover were the basis of the groundwater models construction in different temporal windows periods. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology was used for multi-layers analysis, groundwater vulnerability calculation, and model validation. Intense agriculture in many regions contributes to increase of chemicals concentration in groundwater. By the ‘New Implemented Spatial-Temporal On Regions–Groundwater Vulnerability’ (NISTOR–GWV) Index, a complex methodology was applied including the quantity (water availability, potential infiltration map) and quality (aquifers data, land cover, quality monitoring points) approaches layers. Crosscovariance Cloud, General QQPlot, and double pixel pairs moving window (DPPMW) methods were used to calibrate and validate the construction model of NISTOR–GWV Index. The areas with high and very high groundwater vulnerability classes spread in the central and northwestern side of Europe, South of British Islands, agricultural areas and large plains territories (North European Plain, Po Plain, Romanian Plain), while in the mountains and hilly areas, the medium, low and very low vulnerability was identified. Significant improvement in the spatial groundwater vulnerability modelling could be achieved, on long-term period at continental scale, with contribution for management strategies and plans in hydrology and environmental fields.
... The potential infiltration coefficient (PIC) of each aquifer was assigned at spatial scale. This coefficient reflects the water quality sensitivity (Čenčur Curk et al. 2014). The spatial distribution of PIC in the Pannonian basin is depicted in Figure 5. ...
... The Thornthwaite formula (Equation (1)) requires monthly temperature data and it is widely applied at regional scale for long-term periods. Due to its significance and applicability also for the future periods (Nistor and Mîndrescu 2019), this approach was engaged in many agricultural, climatological, and hydrological studies (Čenčur Curk et al. 2014;Cheval, Dumitrescu, and Barsan 2017;Zhao et al. 2013;Nistor 2019). In this paper, the annual ET 0 was used to carry out the annual ET c , AET c , and water availability at the spatial scale of Pannonian basin. ...
The impact of climate change on groundwater vulnerability have been assessed in the Pannonian basin over 1961–2070. High-resolution climate models, aquifers composition, land cover and digital elevation model were the main factors which served to perform the spatial analysis using Geographical Information Systems. The analysis reported here is focused on the long-term period, including three temporal time sets: past period of 1961–1990 (1990s), present period of 2011–2040 (2020s), and future period of 2041–2070 (2050s). During 1990s, the high and very high areas of groundwater vulnerability were identified in all the central, western, eastern, southeastern, and northern sides of the Pannonian basin. In these areas, the water availability is lower and the pollution load index is high, due to the agricultural activities. The low and very low vulnerability class was depicted in the South-West part of the basin and in few locations from the peripheral areas, mainly in the North and West. The medium groundwater vulnerability spread over the Pannonian basin, but it is more concentrated in the central, South, and South-West. The most affected territory is Hungary, while the territories of Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are less affected. In the present and future periods, the very high groundwater vulnerability increased in areas by 0.74% respective 0.87%. The low class area decreased between 1990s and 2020s by 2.33% and it is expected to decrease up to 2.97% in the 2050s. Based on this analysis and the groundwater vulnerability maps, the Pannonian basin appears more vulnerable to climate change in the present and future. These findings demonstrate that the aquifers from Pannonian basin experience high negative effect under climate conditions. In addition, the land cover contributes to this negative status of groundwater resources. The original maps of groundwater vulnerability represent an instrument for water management planning and for research.
... In the Northern Hemisphere, the summer periods of the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe countries induce drought for a long time, biodiversity changes, and desertification (Čenčur Curk et al., 2014;Prăvălie, 2014;Čenčur Curk et al., 2015). Many hydrogeologists and climatologists completed the calculation of the ET0 and AET0 at a spatial scale. ...
... The storage and infiltration variables were neglected. This simplification was proposed and successfully applied by Čenčur Curk et al., (2014), in their study about groundwater vulnerability to climate change in South East Europe. Figure 3 shows the schematic diagram of the methodology. ...
Water renewal is an essential cycle which depends directly on climate conditions, especially in the drought regions. Monthly and annual potential evapotranspiration (ET0) together with the actual evapotranspiration (AET0) have been used here to find water availability at a spatial scale in Turkey. Two climate models at a very high spatial resolution for 2011-2040 (present) and 2041-2070 (future) were considered to carry out the areas with high water availability and areas with water deficit. The maximum monthly ET0 reaches a value of 275 mm in July in the present period while in the future, the monthly ET0 reaches a value of 317 mm in July and August. Increase in the annual ET0 from 1288 mm to 1495 mm indicates a negative climate change on land-atmosphere exchanges. Even if the annual AET0 decreases between present and future from 901 mm to 896 mm, the water availability indicates an important decrease from 1446 mm year-1 to 1263 mm year-1 in these two periods. The most affected areas are located in central Turkey, mainly in the Anatolian Plateau where the water availability falls below 50 mm, in European Turkey, western coastal sides, and in the northwestern extremity of the country. The main implications of the spatial distribution of water availability and its amount could affect both surface and groundwater resources directly and indirectly affect agriculture and related activities in Turkey.
... Thus, land cover represents a crucial factor in evapotranspiration, runoff, infiltration, and groundwater recharge (Öztürk et al, 2013). The runoff and evapotranspiration have been studied by Čenčur Curk et al (2014) in South-East Europe for groundwater vulnerability. Cheval et al (2017) used regional coupled models in the determination of aridity in South-Eastern Europe. ...
Land cover and spatial variation of seasonal temperature may contribute to different evapotranspiration rates between the European regions. In order to assess the integral effect of land cover and climate on water resources, we implemented a procedure which allows defining favorability areas to high rate of evapotranspiration. Seasonal mean air temperature for the present (2011-2040) and future (2041-2070) combined with the seasonal crop coefficients of current future projections of land cover for the 2040s have been used to evaluate the various degrees of evapotranspiration at European scale. Extremely high and very high degree of evapotranspiration tendency were verified for Southern, Eastern, Western and Central of Europe during the mid-season period. The low and very low evapotranspiration favorability were found in the Scandinavian Peninsula and in the Alps, Dinarics, and Carpathian during the present period in all the seasons. In the cold season, the land cover favorability to evapotranspiration (LCFE) is low and very low in almost the whole Europe. These findings indicate that the southern and western regions of Europe are facing low water availability, decrease in surface water flow, and possible long periods of drought in the summers.
