Figure 2 - uploaded by Scott Stephenson
Content may be subject to copyright.
Map of the Russian and Norwegian Arctic coasts, showing the NSR (solid line) and its extension to the NEP (dotted line). Settlements in red have been identified by the Russian Government (FSUE 2013) as having port facilities in a state of disrepair. Planned SAR stations are also identified with a square (adapted from Stephenson et al. 2013a). 

Map of the Russian and Norwegian Arctic coasts, showing the NSR (solid line) and its extension to the NEP (dotted line). Settlements in red have been identified by the Russian Government (FSUE 2013) as having port facilities in a state of disrepair. Planned SAR stations are also identified with a square (adapted from Stephenson et al. 2013a). 

Source publication
Article
Full-text available
The Russian and Norwegian Arctic are gaining notoriety as an alternative maritime route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and as sources of natural resources. The renewed interest in the Northeast Passage or the Northern Sea Route is fueled by a recession of Arctic sea ice coupled with the discovery of new natural resources at a time when...

Similar publications

Article
Full-text available
Changes in ocean‐circulation regimes in the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas may affect not only the Arctic but potentially hemispheric or even global climate. Therefore, unraveling the long‐term evolution of the North Atlantic Current‐Norwegian Atlantic Current system through the Pleistocene glaciations could yield useful information an...
Article
Full-text available
During the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) campaign in early 2015, a deep snow pack was observed, almost double the climatology for the region north of Svalbard. There were significant amounts of snow-ice in second-year ice (SYI), while much less in first-year ice (FYI). Here we use a 1-D snow/ice thermodynamic model, forced with reanalyses, to...
Article
Full-text available
Atmospheric measurements were made over Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard from winter through early summer (January—June) 2015 during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE2015) expedition. These measurements, which are available publicly, represent a comprehensive meteorological dataset covering the seasonal transition in the Arctic Basin over the new,...
Article
Full-text available
A long-term climatology of cloudiness over the Norwegian, Barents and Kara Seas (NBK) based on visual surface observations is presented. Annual mean total cloud cover (TCC) over the NBK is almost equal over solid-ice (SI) and open-water (OW) parts of NBK (73±3% and 76±2% respectively). In general, TCC has higher intra- and inter-annual variability...
Article
Full-text available
Snow is a crucial component of the Arctic sea ice system. Its thickness and thermal properties control heat conduction and radiative fluxes across the ocean, ice and atmosphere interfaces. Hence, observations of the evolution of snow depth, density, thermal conductivity and stratigraphy, are crucial for the development of detailed snow numerical mo...

Citations

... The Arctic regions are facing wide ranging challenges linked with globalization, exploitation of natural resources, increasing economic activity, new shipping routes, and demographic changes . Loss of sea ice opens up for access to natural resources, allows increased extraction of resources, and year-round accessible shipping routes, increasing anthropogenic activities and impacts in the region (Farré et al., 2014). Warming driven thaw of permafrost areas leads to changes in land cover, landslides, surface stability and emissions of greenhouse gases and mobilization of pollutants, such as mercury and persistent organic pollutants (POPs). ...
Article
Integrative and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments (iCUPE) project developed 24 novel datasets utilizing in-situ observational capacities within the Arctic or remote sensing observations from ground or from space. The datasets covered atmospheric, cryospheric, marine, and terrestrial domains. This paper connects the iCUPE datasets to United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and showcases the use of selected datasets as knowledge provision services for policy- and decision-making actions. Inclusion of indigenous and societal knowledge into the data processing pipelines enables a feedback mechanism that facilitates data driven public services.
... Even though sea ice plays a major role in regulating navigation safety, other meteorological-oceanic factors, such as ocean depth, changeable winds and fog, intense ocean waves and cyclones, also matter (Aksenov et al., 2017;Buixadé Farré et al., 2014;Valkonen et al., 2021). Likewise, the costs of icebreaking services, investments in infrastructure, replenishments and political factors also have effects. ...
Article
Full-text available
The dramatic sea ice loss makes trans‐Arctic navigation possible. However, navigability assessments at high temporal resolution are still very limited. To bridge this gap, daily sea ice concentration and thickness from CMIP6 projections are applied to evaluate the future potential of Arctic shipping under multiple climate scenarios. The September navigable area will continue to increase through the 2050s for open‐water (OW) ships and the 2040s for Polar Class 6 (PC6) vessels across all scenarios. Quasi‐equilibrium states will then ensue for both OW and PC6 ships under SSP245 and SSP585. The sailing time will be shortened, especially for OW ships, while the navigable days for both types of vessels will increase dramatically. PC6 ships will be able to sail the Arctic shipping routes year‐round starting in the 2070s when the decadal‐averaged global mean surface temperature anomaly hits approximately +3.6°C (under SSP585) compared to pre‐industrial times (1850–1900).
... The economy-related works mainly focus on studying the economic perspectives and challenges of trans-Arctic shipping routes and analyzing transcontinental cargo traffic going through the Northeast and the Northwest polar passages (Stephenson et al., 2013;Meng et al., 2017;Guy & Lasserre, 2016). Farre et al. (2014) and Zalyvsky (2015) investigated the perspectives of exploration of mineral and hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic, including in offshore water areas, Lasserre (2014) and Zhao et al. (2016) studied perspectives of bulk be purchased using the "Add to Cart" button on the product's webpage: ...
Chapter
Full-text available
With the emergence of economic globalization, the concept of the blue economy has evolved from fisheries to a broader context that comprised all kinds of biological and mineral resources, maritime trade, shipping, energy, and tourism. Intensive economic exploration of water areas is changing ecosystems, affecting biodiversity, and threatening sustainability. The transformations are felt globally in the form of climate change and environmental degradation, but the Arctic has appeared to be particularly vulnerable. Using the case of China, this chapter attempts to contribute to the convergence of economic benefits of exploring the Arctic with the urgent need to protect a fragile Arctic environment. The authors discuss how China’s involvement in Arctic-related activities can benefit the sustainable development of the blue economy in the region.
... [11][12][13][14][15][16][17] Biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion are major sources of primary BrC and precursors of secondary BrC. [18][19][20] Natural and anthropogenic activities of these emissions have been intensifying in the Arctic and surrounding regions, e.g., from wildfires in Siberia and North America [21][22][23] and from shipping and industrialization, 24,25 respectively. These may increase the abundance of BrC in the Arctic. ...
Article
Full-text available
Rapid warming in the Arctic has a huge impact on the global environment. Atmospheric brown carbon (BrC) is one of the least understood and uncertain warming agents due to a scarcity of observations. Here, we performed direct observations of atmospheric BrC and quantified its light-absorbing properties during a 2-month circum-Arctic cruise in summer of 2017. Through observation-constrained modeling, we show that BrC, mainly originated from biomass burning in the mid- to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (∼60%), can be a strong warming agent in the Arctic region, especially in the summer, with an average radiative forcing of ∼90 mW m⁻² (∼30% relative to black carbon). As climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and spread of wildfires, we expect BrC to play an increasing role in Arctic warming in the future.
... The question now is how these infrastructures function after the ideological regime which produced them, Soviet state socialism, has vanished. Likewise, the question arises how the impacts of climate change, such as the melting of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, fuel public imagination and economic and political considerations of the potential of the Northern Sea Route to function as an alternative option to transport via the Suez Canal (Buixadé Farré et al., 2014;Melia et al., 2016). ...
... An international report on the state and future potential of the NSR conducted in the early post-Soviet period, assumed the important role of the route for domestic cargo flows and community development (Ragner, 2000). Some long-term assumptions, based on climate change scenarios with the prospects of retreating sea-ice even consider the NSR as a potential alternative to Suez Canal (Buixadé Farré et al., 2014). At the same time, more critical research points at a number of economic considerations and geopolitical constrains and indicates that more investments are needed in seaport infrastructure in order to increase the cargo capacity of the NSR and to meet to the heightened expectations of its increased international role (Brigham, 2020;Laruelle, 2016;Moe, 2020). ...
... Buixadé Farré et al. [15] more closely examined the NWP, concluding that conditions in the Arctic were more favourable than ever for marine transportation. Lu et al. [6] analyzed the various routes. ...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change is everywhere, and the Arctic is no exception. The melting sea ice has caused renewed interest in expanding maritime shipping for potentially more accessible ocean routes. Canada emerges as a natural land bridge for trade between Asia, Europe, and the Americas. Plausibly, it is not a choice but an imperative to properly integrate the stakeholders (the environment, countries, remote communities, industrial partners) in opening the Arctic Circle to the global economy while considering the challenges. Keeping sustainability front and center and drawing on the extant literature and government policies, this interdisciplinary study offers a Canadian perspective on Arctic transportation routes over tribal lands and their quadruple bottom line (QBL) impacts on the environment, economy, society, and Indigenous cultures. Unlike the arguable premise that new transport corridors will increase trade traffic and enhance the economy in Northern Canada, the QBL approach enables a more holistic and realistic strategy for the Arctic region’s sustainable development regarding regional economies, rural logistics, supply chain efficiency, and social licensing. Drawing on an integrative literature review as methodology, we highlight the QBL framework and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals as crucial policy tools. Such a holistic perspective helps stakeholders and decision makers frame better policies in identifying, assessing, adapting, and mitigating risks for transportation infrastructure exposed to climate change. We recap the impacts of Arctic Shipping (ArSh) on QBL pillars in an interaction matrix and emphasize that while ArSh may be complementary to economic development, it poses threats to the viability of the Indigenous cultures.
... Technological developments and improvements in sensory systems have limited the number of events. However, the number is growing, and the expectation is that we will see incidents involving cruise ships in the future (Buixadé Farré et al., 2014;Dalaklis et al., 2018;International Maritime Organization, 2006). To support distributed sensemaking, organizations need to strengthen their ability to conduct viable risk analysis by improving the quality of standards and the flow of information within and between cruise ship operators in the region. ...
Article
This article responds to the call advancing risk science as an independent research field, by introducing a conceptual model for risk analysis based on distributed sense-making. Significant advances in recent decades have expanded the use of risk analysis to almost every organization globally. Continued improvements have been made to our understanding of risk, placing a wide range of contexts under organizational control. This article argues that four dimensions are central in how organizations make sense of uncertainty in their context and hence do risk analysis: the activities the organization engages in, their sensory systems, the role and competence of individuals, and the ability to coordinate information through organizational structures. The structure enables insight into the decision-making process and the dimensions contributing to how organizations perceive risks and uncertainty in a given context. Three examples from the Arctic context illustrate the network risk analysis model's practical application and how it will expose weaknesses in these organizations' risk analysis and decision-making processes. Finally, the article discusses sensemaking in network risk analysis and how such an approach supports organizations' ability to perceive, collect, process, and decide on changes in context.
... Trans-Arctic voyages conducted by ships are presently related to two primary routes: a) the Northern Sea Route [54] (NSR) as part of the Northeast passage (NEP) and b) the Northwest Passage (NWP) [10,12,16,18,46,62]. The NEP connects the Atlantic with the Pacific Ocean, crossing the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean and offers an alternative to the Suez Canal with indicative advantages including no congestion and less nautical miles to travel, while the NWP is used as a sail corridor from the U.S. East Coast to Asia and transits through the Canadian Archipelago ( [9]; [15]). The fastest and most direct Arctic route would be the (still frozen and inaccessible) Transpolar Sea Route (TSR), which passes straight through the North Pole [11,28]. ...
... Shipping is an industry strongly interwoven with the environment and as such it can be directly affected by the latest developments in the Arctic. Apart from the Norwegian coastline, the great majority of the NEP, the NSR (about 90% of the entire route) runs along the Russian coastline: from Novaya Zemlya west to the Bering Strait east and is a legal entity under Russian jurisdiction [9]. It is clear that maritime traffic is now more feasible along the NSR between July and October due to the retreat of ice coverage resulting from climate change and a warming of the earth's Poles [16]. ...
... While SAR is a challenging mission in any operating environment, these unique characteristics of the region under discussion make Arctic SAR unequaled in its difficulty [3]. It is not a coincidence that [9] underlined the lack of modern SAR capabilities through the NEP, which ultimately creates a need for higher standards of autonomy and safety for those vessels operating in this still frozen and quite dangerous area. ...
Article
A quite extended number of commercial flights are transiting today through the Arctic Ocean. In addition, activities like tourism, fishing and local communities’ resupply needs, along with various planned and already existing maritime transport endeavors further point towards the direction of future higher demands on the Search and Rescue (SAR) infrastructure of the wider region. The "Agreement on Cooperation on Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue in the Arctic" that coordinates international SAR coverage and response efforts in the region under discussion and establishes the area of (SAR) responsibility of each state party was the first legally-binding instrument negotiated and adopted under the auspices of the Arctic Council; this has been a very decisive step for the establishment and enhancement of SAR infrastructure in the Arctic. Through an exploratory review of various sources (resolutions and legislative documents of the International Maritime Organization, government policy documents of the Arctic Council Nations, academic literature) and primary data from institutions located in Norway and Russia, this paper aims to provide an overview of the existing SAR infrastructure of the countries in close proximity with the Northeast Passage, identify current deficiencies and propose ways forward for safe and sustainable voyages in the region. Valuable outcomes for policy-makers and relevant stakeholders come about from necessary investments in advanced SAR infrastructure to enhance safe and secure navigation in the Arctic, including the use of satellite-based Automatic Identification System (AIS) for monitoring vessel activities and improving awareness of their location and strengthened cooperation among the Arctic Council Nations to address the increased challenges of SAR operations in this remote geographical region.
... However, climate change has led to prolonged open water conditions and large-scale Arctic shipping that will involve ice channels (Barnhart et al., 2015;Huang et al., 2020a). The Northern Sea Route (NSR) extends along the northern coast of Eurasia from Iceland to the Bering Strait, which shortens the transit distance by approximately 15 %-50 % relative to the southern routes through the Suez Canal (Buixadé Farré et al., 2014). It is navigable for approximately 3 months per year for ice-strengthened ships at the end of summer and the beginning of autumn (Yu et al., 2021). ...
Article
Full-text available
The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this investigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by the multi-model from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model. The sea ice extent shows a high possibility of decreasing along SSP5-8.5 under current emissions and climate change. The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extent will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060, when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point. Sea ice thickness is expected to decrease and transit in certain parts, declining by −0.22 m per decade after September 2060. Both the sea ice concentration and volume will thoroughly decline at decreasing decadal rates, with a greater decrease in volume in March than in September. Open water ships will be able to cross the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage between August and October during the period from 2045 to 2055, with a maximum navigable percentage in September. The time for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships will shift to October–December during the period from 2021 to 2030, with a maximum navigable percentage in October. In addition, the central passage will be open for PC6 ships between September and October during 2021–2030.
... Yet, operational obstacles in the Arctic remain severe [4,5], including political restrictions, environmental concerns [6,7], the harsh natural conditions, lacking port infrastructure [1] and the length of the navigation period [8]. The recent analysis of Rajagopal and Zhang (2021) [1] shows that the number of actual transits via the NSR, which is the critical part of the NEP with respect to harsh natural conditions and lacking port infrastructure, is still very low (also see [9]). ...
... (3) Collect actual ship navigation data and extract information (i.e., minimum and maximum values) from related literature to estimate the uncertain economic components' probability distributions. 5 (4) Define the objective function, that is, the functional relationship between predictive and assumption variables. In this paper, the objective function is the one shown in Eq. 1. ...
... Arc4 ice-classed vessel is used for the whole voyage Transshipment mode Arc7 the ordinary vessel is used for transit in open water and Arc7 ice-classed vessel is used for transit in ice areas, and two kinds of ship exchange at the transshipment ports Arc4 the ordinary vessel is used for transit in open water and Arc4 ice-classed vessel is used for transit in ice areas, and two kinds of ship exchange at the transshipment ports 5 For example, the average crew wage paid for shipping via the SCR can be derived from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. It is about 3600USD/person/ month. ...
Article
The progressive retreat of Arctic sea ice in recent years has offered unprecedented opportunities for commercial shipping via Arctic shipping routes. However, actual annual transits via the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) are rare which signals that shipping companies are reluctant to use the NEP from a cost-benefit perspective. This paper analyzes the profitability of container shipping via the NEP. Based on observational data the distribution of profit for a single-voyage along the NEP for different ice class ships (Arc4 and Arc7) in different shipping modes (direct mode and transshipment mode) is generated via Monte Carlo simulations. The simulated data are then used in a seemingly unrelated regression analysis and in cross-equation testing to investigate the relative impact of various revenue and cost factors on the profit of container shipping via the NEP for the different shipping modes and ice ship classes. The study finds that the impacts of the various cost factors considered in the analysis indeed differ greatly across different shipping modes and different ice classes of container ships. The direct mode has a greater profit space than the transshipment mode and the Arc4 class ship has higher profitability than the Arc7 class ship under reasonable assumptions. Moreover, when the container freight rate of the NEP increases by 60% on basis of that of the traditional routes, shipping via the NEP will be profitable.