Fig 3 - uploaded by Thomas Mestl
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Logarithmic representation of fraction of ships with steel hulls and diesel engines (right figure is a close-up of the upper part of the left figure). Note the piecewise straight lines in the curve indicate that the diffusion is best described by an exponential development. Note also that at the transitions between two straight lines, a change in the underlying dynamics occurred, i.e., we argue a structural change has happened. The regression coefficient, R 2 , for goodness of fit is also provided. (Data source: Lloyd's Register of Shipping)
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In the years to come, the maritime industry will have to improve its energy efficiency and soften its environmental footprint to meet higher energy prices and more stringent regulations. Shipowners, managers, and operators are often reluctant in installing new technologies even though they may already have successfully been applied in other industr...
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... that due to the growth in world fleet size, the relative change in the fraction becomes smaller and smaller, which effectively hides any finer signals. By plotting the upper part of the graph in a log plot (logarithm of fraction), these finer signals become apparent (see Fig. 3). Observe the piecewise linear nature of the curve. In these straight line sections, the evolution of the adoption is best described by an exponential function with constant parameter values. This also means that the underlying dynamics does NOT change within these sections. Only at the break point between two lines, however, the ...
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... addition, depending on the desired level of resolution, one can see from Fig. 3 that the Verhulst model cannot explain the fine patterns apparent in, i.e., steel or diesel data. On the other side, the Verhulst model gives a good description of the diesel engine data on a macro level even with the gap in WWII. This may, however, also be its main disadvantage as all fine granularities (information) in the data are ...
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... the fine patterns apparent in, i.e., steel or diesel data. On the other side, the Verhulst model gives a good description of the diesel engine data on a macro level even with the gap in WWII. This may, however, also be its main disadvantage as all fine granularities (information) in the data are discarded in favor of a high-level view (ref. Fig. 3). The fact that a Verhulst model may offer a rather poor phenomenological description is best seen in the logarithmic plot in Fig. 3. Here, we can clearly see that the data points do not exactly follow the Verhulst model. They are actually much better described by sections of piecewise straight lines which supports our argument that ...
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... diesel engine data on a macro level even with the gap in WWII. This may, however, also be its main disadvantage as all fine granularities (information) in the data are discarded in favor of a high-level view (ref. Fig. 3). The fact that a Verhulst model may offer a rather poor phenomenological description is best seen in the logarithmic plot in Fig. 3. Here, we can clearly see that the data points do not exactly follow the Verhulst model. They are actually much better described by sections of piecewise straight lines which supports our argument that the dynamics of technology dissemination is heavily influenced by structural changes. As many structural changes, i.e., regulations and ...
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... argument that the dynamics of technology dissemination is heavily influenced by structural changes. As many structural changes, i.e., regulations and production capac- ity, are discontinuous processes, in time they will also change the underlying dynamics discontinuously, hence the observed Bbreakpoints^ between the piece-wise linear sections in Fig. ...
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... structural model naturally explains the observed phenomena of the piecewise straight lines in Fig. 3. It argues that the underlying processes governing the system dynamics will remain unchanged as long as existing structures are the same. Once an old structure is modified/replaced by a new one, the underlying processes will also change and hence also the system dynamics. This is seen as bends/breakpoints between the piecewise straight ...
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... 3. It argues that the underlying processes governing the system dynamics will remain unchanged as long as existing structures are the same. Once an old structure is modified/replaced by a new one, the underlying processes will also change and hence also the system dynamics. This is seen as bends/breakpoints between the piecewise straight lines in Fig. ...
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... designed (structured) for smaller wooden vessels. Again, investments were required to change port structures (increasing maximum size of cargo delivery or the port draught) before they were suitable for the new steel ship technology (Stopford 2009). The effect of this implementation could be seen as the bend points in the logarithmic plot of Fig. ...
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... There is a strong status quo in vessels which creates a level playing field between actors. It also creates fierce competition, which again limits the willingness to take on risks (Wijnolst & Wergeland, 2009;Psarros & Mestl, 2015). The sector has many small detached companies (Europen Commission, 2015), which means that large research and development projects are difficult. ...
The energy transition of Dutch shipping is a complex gradual process due to the variety in vessels, cost and lifetime of assets, uncertainty, additional costs of climate-neutral alternatives and required regulatory changes. This paper aims to create a holistic overview of both the transition barriers and enablers. A focus is placed on the significance of pilot projects.
Using the socio-technical multi-level perspective as a framework, literature on lock-in mechanisms, strategic niche management, transition pathways, and shipping specific aspects was evaluated as a starting point for determining the shipping specific barriers. Semi-structured interviews with industry experts were used to further develop the overview of the barriers and add the required enablers. Thereafter, three case studies were conducted for additional detail, context and reflection on the theory, barriers and enablers provided by experts and literature.
Pilot projects can reduce any market entry barrier for a certain vessel and operational area. These barriers can originate from interdependency, costs, uncertainty, the required assets, regulations and mindset. Pilots can significantly reduce the additional costs of climate-neutral sailing by tens of per cent, improving the market potential and creating opportunities for follow-ups, scale-ups and spin-offs. Furthermore, pilots can develop clear climate-neutral sailing practices, the new 'ways of doing', which articulates expectations and visions on a future climate-neutral cluster which makes investments less risky. It has therefore been demonstrated that subsidizing pilot projects through local governments can become a key enabler for shipping, since the global nature and complex governance structure make it difficult to initiate and accelerate the transition in other ways.
... The European and global maritime sector ensures global distribution of prosperity, as 90% of all goods are shipped via waterborne transport [1]. However, the energy transition has created significant transition challenges within the maritime sector. ...
... This approach analyzes the systemic challenges. Systemic challenges are defined in this paper as the lack of or limited capability of the European maritime sector to perform the four activities (A1-A4) as listed below (based on [1,[21][22][23] These activities are part of the innovation and adaptation process within a sector, which is continuous and non-linear in practice. By linearly simplifying the process, the following steps can be described. ...
... Resources must then be mobilized (A3) to develop and disseminate the required knowledge (A4). The overarching goal is to adapt existing structures, which requires the capacity to change actors, institutions, infrastructure, and interactions [1]. For example, developing regulation for innovative ship propulsion (e.g., fuel cells) or adapting physical bunkering infrastructure for sustainable energy carriers. ...
Energy transition is affecting the European maritime sector at an increasing rate. New technologies and regulations are being introduced with increasing speed. The ability to adapt to these changes is crucial for the economic success of the maritime sector. However, the sector is challenged by inertia due to its global nature and long-life assets (e.g., vessels). These developments result in a globally projected greenhouse gas emission growth rather than a reduction towards 2050. The sector can be considered essential to economic prosperity, but its innovation system should align with global sustainability trends. This article aims to structure and evaluate the maritime sector’s systemic challenges by conducting an extensive systematic review of (sustainable) maritime innovation literature. These findings are structured and discussed via four key activities that support the transition process: developing strategy and policy, creating legitimacy, mobilizing resources, and developing and disseminating knowledge.
