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Initial values for forecast [2]

Initial values for forecast [2]

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Article
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This publication introduces four methods to forecast the global surface temperature over land and ocean (global warming). The methods include a parabolic trendline of the last 61 years of global warming and cumulated CO2 emissions. Two other methods apply the velocity and the acceleration of global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions. The relation...

Contexts in source publication

Context 1
... most recent 31 neighboring periods were selected in this work for the determination of CO2GW: 1961-1991and 1991-2021. Table 4 -Application of Formula 1 for the year 2000 1940-1970 1970-2000 Δ Center year 1955 1985 Ave GW °C +0.307 +0.548 +0.241 CCO2 GtCO2 264.04 698.46 434.42 CO2GW °C/GtCO2 0.000556 Forecast of Global Warming in 2100 using Parabolic Trendline of Cumulative CO2 Emissions According to the above approach, the GW forecast for the year 2100 is 4.42°C ...
Context 2
... tCO2/y" and the Acceleration of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions (ACCO2) as "31 years trendline slope of the annual changes in the cumulative CO2 emissions, tCO2/ y 2 ". 40 1755 1765 1775 1785 1795 1805 1815 1825 1835 1845 1855 1865 1875 1885 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 Axis x is the center of the 11 years period applied for the calculation Chart 8 -Acceleration of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions, ACCO2 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Axis x is the center of the 31 trendline period (2005 is the center of the 1990-2020 trendline period) Table 10 -GW forecast using CCO2 acceleration approach year dACCO2 ACCO2 VCCO2 CCO2 Δ to BL GW year dACCO2 ACCO2 VCCO2 CCO2 Δ to BL GW GtCO2/y 3 GtCO2/y 2 GtCO2/y GtCO2 GtCO2 °CPart IIIForecast of Global Surface Temperature Change till 2100 ...
Context 3
... tCO2/y" and the Acceleration of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions (ACCO2) as "31 years trendline slope of the annual changes in the cumulative CO2 emissions, tCO2/ y 2 ". 40 1755 1765 1775 1785 1795 1805 1815 1825 1835 1845 1855 1865 1875 1885 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 Axis x is the center of the 11 years period applied for the calculation Chart 8 -Acceleration of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions, ACCO2 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Axis x is the center of the 31 trendline period (2005 is the center of the 1990-2020 trendline period) Table 10 -GW forecast using CCO2 acceleration approach year dACCO2 ACCO2 VCCO2 CCO2 Δ to BL GW year dACCO2 ACCO2 VCCO2 CCO2 Δ to BL GW GtCO2/y 3 GtCO2/y 2 GtCO2/y GtCO2 GtCO2 °CPart IIIForecast of Global Surface Temperature Change till 2100 ...
Context 4
... Cumulative CO2 emissions acceleration factors (CO2A) Table 11 -Business as usual (BAU) GW forecast using all methods, °C above 1850-1900 baseline, for land+ocean GWTL Parabolic trendline of Global Warming GWA Global Warming acceleration factors CO2TL ...

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