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Figure 4 - Analysis of pandemic closing-reopening cycles using rigorous homotopy continuation: a case study with Montreal COVID-19 data

Figure 4: Infected component over one period of the closing-reopening cycle at α = 0 (pointwise threshold, black) and α = 1 (rolling average threshold, bright green). The overshooting of the threshold I C = 1600 in the rolling average case is more clearly visible here. From Theorem 12, we know that the threshold is overshot by approximately 135 active cases for a duration of just under 5.5 days. This length of time corresponds to roughly 5% of the duration of the cycle.
Infected component over one period of the closing-reopening cycle at α = 0 (pointwise threshold, black) and α = 1 (rolling average threshold, bright green). The overshooting of the threshold I C = 1600 in the rolling average case is more clearly visible here. From Theorem 12, we know that the threshold is overshot by approximately 135 active cases for a duration of just under 5.5 days. This length of time corresponds to roughly 5% of the duration of the cycle.
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