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Global annual mean temperature variation of the Earth through time (last 400 million years) predicted by the Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3), compared with geologically derived estimates of temperature variability over the same period [the Royer et al. 2004 temperature record, the Zachos et al. 2008; Lisiecki and Raymo 2005 benthic oxygen isotope stack, as well as the EPICA and NGRIP ice core records; Jouzel et al. 2007 and NGRIP Members 2004. Geological epochs include the Devonian (D), Carbon-
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In modern environmental and climate science it is necessary to assimilate observational datasets collected over decades with outputs from numerical models, to enable a full understanding of natural systems and their sensitivities. During the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, numerical modelling became central to many areas of science from the B...
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... use of models to understand the evolution of our planet's climate, environment and life ( Fig. 1), collectively known as past (palaeo) climate modelling, has matured in its capacity and capability since the first simulations using a General Circulation Model (GCM) were published in the 1970s for the Last Glacial Maximum (e.g., Gates 1976). Since then it has become apparent that to fully appreciate the complex interactions between ...
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The cryosphere, which comprises a large portion of Earth’s surface, is rapidly changing as a consequence of global climate change. Ice, snow, and frozen ground in the polar and alpine regions of the planet are known to directly impact atmospheric composition, which for example is observed in the large influence of ice and snow on polar boundary lay...
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... Combining archaeological and climate work can be a rewarding avenue. Archaeological research is often the sole method of providing the necessary human element in human-environmental interaction studies (Mijares et al. 2020), while climate models allow us to assess the way the environment has changed over varying spatiotemporal scales (Haywood et al. 2019). So, how can one responsibly utilize climate models in archaeological work pertaining to disaster, risk, and resilience? ...
An ideal model of seafaring simulates realistic human decision-making and behavioural patterns to help researchers understand the way past communities functioned within a maritime context. Seafaring involves inherent risk, potential for environmental disaster, and opportunities to demonstrate resilience. Understanding what risks ancient seafarers faced and how they behaved in the face of disaster provides an important lens through which researchers can understand the breadth of human response to environmental disaster, decision-making in the past, and the social ideologies of the societies they study. Computational models are often insufficient to capture the complexities of these junctures in human history. Our assumptions about modern human behaviour and what constitutes a “default” mode (which is often Western or Euro-centric) form input parameters and affect model output. Additionally, the spatiotemporal resolution of climate models often makes the simulation of discrete environmental events challenging. Because disaster, risk, and resilience are poorly realized in computational models, considering past human response, decision-making, and ideologies can improve not only our understanding of past societies but also how we develop models. In this article, we discuss questions and challenges regarding disaster, risk, and resilience that we face in our collective body of work, which spans a diverse temporal and geographical range. We aim to ignite conversations about the role of these experiences in archaeological models and to challenge the status quo to improve the study of past maritime communities. The following questions and their collaborative responses exhibit the candid discussions that the CAST community has facilitated and participated in about how to manage the challenges and opportunities presented by disaster, risk, and resilience in seafaring research.
... Paleo-data has provided invaluable insights into natural cycles/ variability over relatively short (decadal) to long (millions of years) time scales, into abrupt changes in climate as well as into the occurrence and impact of, and recovery from, hazardous events (e.g., McGuire et al., 2023). Paleo-climate data continues to be vitally important for improving and constraining climate models (Schmidt, 2010;Haywood et al., 2019;Tierney et al., 2020), and for assessing climate sensitivity to increases in CO 2 (Sherwood et al., 2020). However, the greatly increased focus on climate modelling and model outputs over the past three decades has effectively decreased the emphasis placed on paleo-data. ...
... Comparing proxy-based reconstructions with climate simulations will re ne our knowledge of climate dynamics (e.g., Phipps et al., 2013) and improve climate models. This approach will contribute to a better comprehension of Earth's evolution and provide insights into the resilience of natural and social systems in the Anthropocene (Haywood et al., 2019). ...
Paleoclimate reconstructions are essential for understanding the dynamics of the climate system and its past variations. By utilizing climate-dependent proxies, these reconstructions provide a comprehensive perspective on climatic variations that extend far beyond the limited scope of instrumental records, spanning centuries to millennia. Particularly, proxy-based reconstructions for the last two millennia provide valuable insights into natural climate variability during the preindustrial era and the anthropogenic influence on current climate change. As a result, paleoclimate studies are also critical for interpreting climate projections in the context of anthropogenic forcing. South America, with its vast and diverse climate conditions, is a region rich in high-resolution paleoclimate records, including marine, lacustrine, and fjord sediments, speleothems, ice cores, tree rings, glacial and aeolian deposits, archaeological evidence, and historical documents, among others, all of which capture past climate changes. However, despite numerous paleoclimate reconstructions conducted across the continent and significant advances in understanding its past climate, substantial research gaps remain. These gaps are particularly evident in understudied regions and poorly understood phenomena, hindering a comprehensive understanding of climate variability at both regional and continental scales. To advance paleoclimatic research in South America, future efforts should prioritize (a) the collection of high-resolution records from key locations, (b) the integration of diverse proxies and innovative methodologies, (c) enhancing our understanding of climate-proxy relationships, and (d) developing new proxy calibrations. Collaboration with local communities and indigenous peoples and adopting interdisciplinary approaches will be vital in driving the field forward.
... In the literature the terms SDM or ecological niche modelling (ENM) are used most often to refer to a set of comprising algorithms that model the distribution of species while also connecting them with the concept of ecological niches (Sillero 2011). In recent years this technique has found a wider application in the field of palaeontology to answer ecological and evolutionary questions in deep time (Haywood et al. 2019). Earlier in the 2010s, this technique found a use in a Recent palaeontological context (Graham et al. 1996;Svenning et al. 2011), but authors have previously successfully applied this approach deep into the Phanerozoic as well (Stigall 2012;Myers et al. 2015;Waterson et al. 2016;Chiarenza et al. 2019Chiarenza et al. , 2020Chiarenza et al. , 2021. ...
Temnospondyls had a remarkable worldwide distribution throughout the Triassic at a time of periodic arid climates, and were a stable component of Triassic terrestrial ecosystems. Given the postulated ancestral relationship between temnospondyls and modern lissamphibians it is pertinent to recognize that the group may have exhibited some degree of ecological resilience and adaptability. Despite this higher level of plasticity, temnospondyls might still have been susceptible to environmental and climate changes. Although fossil sites are distributed sporadically, we try to circumvent the present geographical and geological biases by combining actual fossil occurrences with environmental conditions derived from general circulation models. Here, we employ species distribution modelling to examine the palaeogeographic and palaeoclimatic distribution of Eur-opean temnospondyls during the transition from Middle to Late Triassic. The model shows different suitable areas for temnospondyl habitats that give new potential insights on the biogeographic distribution patterns and dispersal potential. We suggest that the Central European Basin functioned as a focal point for Triassic temnospondyl diversification and spread. Moreover, this paper provides the first application of species distribution modelling for Triassic temnospondyls and aids in understanding their climatic niche occupation and evolution.
... However, there is potential for traditional model evaluation and development to be expanded to utilise proxy data associated with paleoclimate states e.g. [1][2][3][4][5][6] . In particular, paleoclimate model simulations test model behaviour under a wide range of forcings, which encompass those expected in the timescale of the next few centuries and beyond 7,8 . ...
The paleoclimate record provides a test-bed in which climate models can be evaluated under conditions of substantial CO2 change; however, these data are typically under-used in the process of model development and evaluation. Here, we use a set of metrics based on paleoclimate proxy observations to evaluate climate models under three past time periods. We find that the latest CMIP6/PMIP4 ensemble mean does a remarkably good job of simulating the global mean surface air temperatures of these past periods, and is improved on CMIP5/PMIP3, implying that the modern climate sensitivity of the CMIP6/PMIP4 model ensemble mean is consistent with the paleoclimate record. However, some models, in particular those with very high or very low climate sensitivity, simulate paleo temperatures that are outside the uncertainty range of the paleo proxy temperature data; in this regard, the paleo data can provide a more stringent constraint than data from the historical record. There is also consistency between models and data in terms of polar amplification, with amplification increasing with increasing global mean temperature across all three time periods. The work highlights the benefits of using the paleoclimate record in the model development and evaluation cycle, in particular for screening models with too-high or too-low climate sensitivity across a range of CO2 concentrations.
... This supplies crucial data for fieldwork, identification and filling of collection gaps. A Species Distribution Model (SDM) can provide a good set of information for this goal (Peterson & Soberón 2012, Roy et al. 2022, and the Paleodistribution can supply historical data to understand the patterns of colonization and distribution of this genus to the current geographical patterns (Haywood et al. 2019). Generating this set of information, we are also able to see a Habitat Suitability Modeling (HSM), a good base for future work on the protection of endangered species as a reliable source used e.g. for species reintroduction (Bellamy et al. 2020, Bertelli et al. 2022, Roy et al. 2022. ...
Staurochlamys is a monospecific genus found exclusively in the Brazilian Cerrado, recognized by a unique morphological trait in the Asteraceae: the flattened involucre. Prior research into this genus has been limited, and this paper represents the first comprehensive investigation exclusively dedicated to it. This study presents a thorough morphological description of the species, a nomenclatural revision, insights into the species distribution, phenology, a preliminary evaluation of extinction risk, details related to risk assessment, and the species distribution modelling. Additionally, previously unlisted collections have been incorporated, with careful consideration of habitat details. The genus is reaffirmed as an exclusive component to the Brazilian Cerrado, bearing an ‘Endangered’ classification, and historical modeling has proposed a hypothesis to explain the outliers in its current distribution.
... Biome delineation is both less exact and more complex than our models suggest, with some biomes occupying a range of environmental conditions, and groupings of environmental conditions being associated with multiple biomes [2,3]. It is also not well understood how historical contingency can play a role in determining biomes [3,11,64]. Further, disturbances such as herbivorous grazing and fires can 'consume' existing vegetation, accelerating the realization of a new biome [3], while in some cases, anthropogenic changes in fire regimes, whether via hunting-gathering or agriculture, have been found to increase or maintain open woodland and savannah biomes [65]. Gaining more knowledge on how biome transitions take place, and the timescales on which they occur, is an important next step in validating our model projections. ...
Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere’.
... Paleontological models are also beginning to estimate rates of diversification regionally (96)(97)(98), with more work needed to develop our understanding of how spatial bias may affect rate parameters. Simulation models, such as mechanistic spatial algorithms, provide a new avenue to elucidate rate variation regionally over Earth history (15,(99)(100)(101), especially when forced with realistic estimates of how climate, continents, and topography have changed spatially and temporally over time (102). Even without realistic forcers, spatial models may provide null expectations for rate variation in silico (15). ...
The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) describes the pattern of increasing numbers of species from the poles to the equator. Although recognized for over 200 years, the mechanisms responsible for the largest-scale and longest-known pattern in macroecology are still actively debated. I argue here that any explanation for the LDG must invoke differential rates of speciation, extinction, extirpation, or dispersal. These processes themselves may be governed by numerous abiotic or biotic factors. Hypotheses that claim not to invoke differential rates, such as 'age and area' or 'time for diversification', eschew focus from rate variation that is assumed by these explanations. There is still significant uncertainty in how rates of speciation, extinction, extirpation, and dispersal have varied regionally over Earth history. However, to better understand the development of LDGs, we need to better constrain this variation. Only then will the drivers of such rate variation - be they abiotic or biotic in nature - become clearer.
... Data from these geological archives for times representing higher-than-present CO 2 worlds have been widely used in Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) to assess the performance of transient GCMs run to equilibrium (e.g. Haywood et al., 2019;Masson-Delmotte et al., 2013). While most CMIPs reconcile global mean temperatures, they poorly reconcile regional climatic patterns such as polar amplification (Naish and Zwartz, 2012;Haywood et al., 2019;Masson-Delmotte et al., 2013;Fischer et al., 2018). ...
... Haywood et al., 2019;Masson-Delmotte et al., 2013). While most CMIPs reconcile global mean temperatures, they poorly reconcile regional climatic patterns such as polar amplification (Naish and Zwartz, 2012;Haywood et al., 2019;Masson-Delmotte et al., 2013;Fischer et al., 2018). This is in part due to the incomplete spatial coverage of the geological data, accuracy and quality of the data, the resolution of GCM grids and their treatment of mid-to high-latitude polar processes. ...
... Such a rise in global sea level implies melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (Koenig et al., 2015;Batchelor et al., 2019), West Antarctic Ice Sheet (Naish et al., 2009;McKay et al., 2012) and parts of the marine-based East Antarctic Ice Sheet (Cook et al., 2013;Patterson et al., 2014;Bertram et al., 2018). Therefore, the interglacial periods of mPWP are considered to be the most accessible and suitable past analogue, or window, into the future equilibrium response of the Earth system to warming in line with SSP2-4.5 (Naish and Zwartz, 2012;Dowsett et al., 2013;Haywood et al., 2019). Location map for sites used in the south-west Pacific SST reconstruction (north: top of page). ...
Based on Nationally Determined Contributions concurrent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2-4.5, the IPCC predicts global warming of 2.1–3.5 ∘C (very likely range 10–90th percentile) by 2100 CE. However, global average temperature is a poor indicator of regional warming and global climate models (GCMs) require validation with instrumental or proxy data from geological archives to assess their ability to simulate regional ocean and atmospheric circulation, and thus, to evaluate their performance for regional climate projections. The south-west Pacific is a region that performs poorly when GCMs are evaluated against instrumental observations. The New Zealand Earth System Model (NZESM) was developed from the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM) to better understand south-west Pacific response to global change, by including a nested ocean grid in the south-west Pacific with 80 % greater horizontal resolution than the global-scale host.
Here, we reconstruct regional south-west Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3–3.0 Ma), which has been widely considered a past analogue with an equilibrium surface temperature response of +3 ∘C to an atmospheric CO2 concentration of ∼350–400 ppm, in order to assess the warming distribution in the south-west Pacific. This study presents proxy SSTs from seven deep sea sediment cores distributed across the south-west Pacific. Our reconstructed SSTs are derived from molecular biomarkers preserved in the sediment – alkenones (i.e. U37K′ index) and isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (i.e. TEX86 index) – and are compared with SSTs reconstructed from the Last Interglacial (125 ka), Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) outputs and transient climate model projections (NZESM and UKESM) of low- to high-range SSPs for 2090–2099 CE.
Mean interglacial equilibrium SSTs during the mPWP for the south-west Pacific sites were on average 4.2 ∘C (1.8–6.1 ∘C likely range) above pre-industrial temperatures and show good agreement with model outputs from NZESM and UKESM under mid-range SSP 2–4.6 conditions. These results highlight that not only is the mPWP an appropriate analogue when considering future temperature change in the centuries to come, but they also demonstrate that the south-west Pacific region will experience warming that exceeds that of the global mean if atmospheric CO2 remains above 350 ppm.
... However, to arrive at common balance point of 37°C, an environmental assumption is required since as already indicated, homeothermy is dependent on the temperature of the organism being sufficiently higher than the surrounding temperature. Figure 2 depicts the temperature anomaly modelling from various sources dating back to 400 million years and up to the prediction for 2100 [20]. Since current evidence indicates that the most important evolutionary split occurred between primates with wet and dry noses during the Eocene (~40 million years ago), homeothermy must have developed during this epoch [21][22][23]. ...
The relationship between living things and their respective environments highly dependent on body temperature regulation. The human capacity to effectively thermoregulate evolved at a time when the environmental temperature was likely around 25°C during the Eocene epoch, some ~ 50-60 million years ago. This effectively meant that homeothermy settled on a core temperature balance point of ~ 37°C. When Homo split from chimpanzee around 5 million years ago the Earth was entering a cooling period where the balance point temperature was always well above that of the environment and body heat balance could be maintained. Following this cooling period, the Earth’s rewarming by 7 °C took over approximately 5,000 years, whereas the current estimates indicate 0.7 °C over the past 100 years; ten times the rate of ice-age-recovery warming, or 20 times faster compared with the last 2 million years. As such, if the predicted continued rise in global temperature continues, and surface temperature reaches values where heat load cannot be dumped as the body temperature balance point is at or near the environmental temperature, areas of the Earth would become inhospitable. This effectively means that we will need to deal with both physiological and behavioral limitations since our ability to adapt will be limited by a thermoregulatory strategy that evolved over millions of years for a different kind of environment, not one that is predicted to change rapidly over the next century. This paper outlines the basis on which Homo settled on a thermoregulatory balance point and what limitations this presents for us in the future.
