Global annual mean temperature variation of the Earth through time (last 400 million years) predicted by the Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3), compared with geologically derived estimates of temperature variability over the same period [the Royer et al. 2004 temperature record, the Zachos et al. 2008; Lisiecki and Raymo 2005 benthic oxygen isotope stack, as well as the EPICA and NGRIP ice core records; Jouzel et al. 2007 and NGRIP Members 2004. Geological epochs include the Devonian (D), Carbon-

Global annual mean temperature variation of the Earth through time (last 400 million years) predicted by the Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3), compared with geologically derived estimates of temperature variability over the same period [the Royer et al. 2004 temperature record, the Zachos et al. 2008; Lisiecki and Raymo 2005 benthic oxygen isotope stack, as well as the EPICA and NGRIP ice core records; Jouzel et al. 2007 and NGRIP Members 2004. Geological epochs include the Devonian (D), Carbon-

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In modern environmental and climate science it is necessary to assimilate observational datasets collected over decades with outputs from numerical models, to enable a full understanding of natural systems and their sensitivities. During the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, numerical modelling became central to many areas of science from the B...

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... use of models to understand the evolution of our planet's climate, environment and life ( Fig. 1), collectively known as past (palaeo) climate modelling, has matured in its capacity and capability since the first simulations using a General Circulation Model (GCM) were published in the 1970s for the Last Glacial Maximum (e.g., Gates 1976). Since then it has become apparent that to fully appreciate the complex interactions between ...

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... Cross-Chapter Box PALEO.1 | Biological responses to six well-known ancient rapid warming events (hyperthermals) over the last 300 million years. Temperature anomalies (mean temperature difference to pre-industrial 1850-1900, solid orange curve) derived from climate modelling (300-66 Ma)(Haywood et al., 2019) and deep-sea proxy data (66-0.1 Ma) ...
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... It has long recognized that the evolution of the climate has a crucial impact in the natural history of humans and, for that reason, palaeoclimatic reconstructions feature prominently in palaeoanthropological debates (Haywood et al. 2019). In this sense, the disappearance process of the Neanderthals has been focused from this topic. ...
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El Salt (Middle Palaeolithic; Alcoi, Spain) is a key site for understanding the disappearance of Neanderthals in the eastern Iberian Peninsula, a process that is observed along its stratigraphic sequence. To improve our understanding of the palaeoclimatic context in which this process took place, we applied the UDA-ODA discrimination technique to the fossil herpetological assemblages from Stratigraphic Units (SU) Xb (52.3 ± 4.6 ka) and V (45.2 ± 3.4/44.7 ± 3.4 ka). This method is based in the application of an ecological criterion, the maximum altitude of each species on each Iberian range, to discern and remove those areas that do not meet their ecological requirements (UDA) from those that do (ODA), which are included in its distribution from Atlases from which the common distribution species is going to be extracted. Results indicate the existence of an alternation between “cold and wet” moments with “warm and dry” ones, all of them in a more humid context than nowadays. Climate was slightly warmer than nowadays in SU Xb, whereas was cooler in SU V. Regarding MAP, our results show less variation between SUs than it has been provided by previous studies. These results do not fully agree with those provided by small mammals from the same SUs, which indicate an increase of the temperatures whereas rainfall experienced the contrary. These differences could be related with the wider distribution of the Iberian herpetofauna, and some differences in the applied ecological criterion. Furthermore, herpetofaunal palaeoclimatic reconstruction shows that the abandonment of the site by Neanderthals seems to have occurred during an arid phase.
... Actually, taking into consideration Figure 1c, the time scale (800,000 years) used in Figure 4 could be understood as a "few minutes" from the geological scale perspective, and consequently, the approximately 4600 58 million years of planet Earth's evolution, which is intimately connected to the warm and cold periods identified by Milankovitch, is completely neglected. It is now pertinent to mention the concept highlighted in 2013 by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2013), "Climate Numerical Models", as well as "Earth System Models", which are embodied as the modern environmental and climate science approaches to enable a full understanding of natural systems and their sensitivities (Haywood et al. 2019;Voosen 2021). Different sources of uncertainties in climate change models have been reported, namely, anthropogenic and natural factors. ...
Chapter
The transition from fossil fuel-dominant energy production to so-called carbon-neutral sources has been identified as an important new challenge seeking to address climate change. Climate change, specifically global warming, is presently considered as being intimately related to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, especially those of an anthropogenic origin. The issue of CO2 emissions of an anthropogenic origin from the combustion of fossil fuels remains rather controversial, due to the following main reasons: other greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as methane (CH4) produce a more negative environmental effect than CO2, and natural causes such as the sun and volcanic activities also play an important role. In addition, an important part of CO2 emissions is unrelated to energy production, but concerns other industries such as chemical and cement production. Furthermore, it should be stated that there still exists considerable disagreement in climate models and scenarios used by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). A workable and viable strategy towards the production of clean energy must include the capture and storage of CO2 as one of the main targets in the energy and climate binomial strategy, despite facing criticism from some environmental organizations. The contribution of geology is not only related to the need of carbon capture and storage technologies, as already admitted in the Paris Agreement, but also to the exploitation of mineral raw materials essential to build renewable energy equipments, and, ultimately, to the underground energy storage associated to hydrogen energy production.
... Actually, taking into consideration Figure 1c, the time scale (800,000 years) used in Figure 4 could be understood as a "few minutes" from the geological scale perspective, and consequently, the approximately 4600 million years of planet Earth's evolution, which is intimately connected to the warm and cold periods identified by Milankovitch, is completely neglected. It is now pertinent to mention the concept highlighted in 2013 by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2013), "Climate Numerical Models", as well as "Earth System Models", which are embodied as the modern environmental and climate science approaches to enable a full understanding of natural systems and their sensitivities (Haywood et al. 2019;Voosen 2021). Different sources of uncertainties in climate change models have been reported, namely, anthropogenic and natural factors. ...
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... A basic understanding of the timing and magnitude of natural variability of tropical rainfall in the past is critical to place present trends in context and to validate climate model performance 1 . Much of modern society directly or indirectly relies on the consistency of seasonal rains for agriculture in tropical monsoon settings 2,3 . ...
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Speleothem δ18O is widely used as a proxy for rainfall amount in the tropics on glacial-interglacial to interannual scales. However, uncertainties in the interpretation of this renowned proxy pose a vexing problem in tropical paleoclimatology. Here, we present paired measurements of Mg/Ca and δ18O for multiple stalagmites from southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, that that confirm changes in rainfall amount across ice age terminations. Collectively, the stalagmites span two glacial-interglacial transitions from 380 to 330 ky BP and 230 to 170 ky BP. Mg/Ca in our slow-growing stalagmites is affected by karst infiltration rates and prior calcite precipitation, making it a good proxy for changes in local rainfall. When paired, Mg/Ca and δ18O corroborate prominent shifts from drier glacials to wetter interglacials in the core of the Australasian monsoon domain. Deviations between the two proxies may reveal concurrent changes in rainfall amount and moisture-transport pathways indicative of regional monsoon circulation.
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... For this period, the particular configuration of the Earth's orbit around the Sun led to remarkable changes in the seasonal cycle of insolation. Knowing whether models react properly to those changes might give us important hints on their reliability for the investigation of the future (Haywood et al., 2019). ...
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The past as an analogue for the future is one of the main motivations to use climate models for paleoclimate applications. Assessing possible model limitations in simulating past climate changes can lead to an improved understanding and representation of the response of the climate system to changes in the forcing, setting the basis for more reliable information for the future. In this study, the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM is used for the investigation of the mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 years ago) European climate, aiming to contribute to the solution of the long-standing debate on the reconstruction of MH summer temperatures for the region, and gaining more insights into the development of appropriate methods for the production of future climate projections. Two physically perturbed ensembles (PPEs) are first built by perturbing model physics and parameter values, consistently over two periods characterized by different forcing (i.e., the MH and pre-industrial, PI). The goal is to uncover possible processes associated with the considered changes that could deliver a response in MH summer temperatures closer to evidence from continental-scale pollen-based reconstructions. None of the investigated changes in model configuration produces remarkable differences with respect to the mean model behavior. This indicates a limited sensitivity of the model to changes in the climate forcing, in terms of its structural uncertainty. Additional sensitivity tests are further conducted for the MH, by perturbing the model initial soil moisture conditions at the beginning of spring. A strong spatial dependency of summer near-surface temperatures on the soil moisture available in spring is evinced from these experiments, with particularly remarkable differences evident over the Balkans and the areas north of the Black Sea. This emphasizes the role of soil–atmosphere interactions as one of the possible drivers of the differences in proxy-based summer temperatures evident between northern and southern Europe. A well-known deficiency of the considered land scheme of COSMO-CLM in properly retaining spring soil moisture, confirmed by the performed tests, suggests that more attention should be paid to the performance of the soil component of climate models applied to this case study. The consideration of more complex soil schemes may be required to help bridging the gap between models and proxy reconstructions. Finally, the distribution of the PPEs with changes in model configuration is analyzed for different variables. In almost all of the considered cases the results show that what is optimal for one period, in terms of a model configuration, is not the best for another characterized by different radiative forcing. These results raise concerns about the usefulness of automatic and objective calibration methods for RCMs, suggesting that a preferable approach is the production of small PPEs that target a set of model configurations, properly representing climate phenomena characteristic of the target region and that will be likely to contain the best model answer under different forcing.
... Cross-Chapter Box PALEO.1 | Biological responses to six well-known ancient rapid warming events (hyperthermals) over the last 300 million years. Temperature anomalies (mean temperature difference to pre-industrial 1850-1900, solid orange curve) derived from climate modelling (300-66 Ma)(Haywood et al., 2019) and deep-sea proxy data (66-0.1 Ma) ...
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Chapter 1: Ara Begum, R., R. Lempert, E. Ali, T.A. Benjaminsen, T. Bernauer, W. Cramer, X. Cui, K. Mach, G. Nagy, N.C. Stenseth, R. Sukumar, and P. Wester, et al. 2022. Point of Depaarture and Key Concepts. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
... Although (unfortunately) no direct observations are available for the past hundred millions of years, we do find indirect evidence about the past climate (for example fossils or ice cores). These so-called proxies provide an archive of past climate and can be used to compare with climate model simulations (Haywood et al., 2019). As a result, the combination of models and proxies of past climate can be used to get a better understanding of how a future climate, which is warmer than today, may look like (Masson-Delmote et al., 2013;Tierney et al., 2020b). ...
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Anthropogenic climate change is one of the greatest challenges for humanity today. How does the Earth system react to the atmospheric greenhouse gas increase that has never happened before with such speed in Earth's history? So far, climate models project an increase of the global average temperature, sea level and the number of `extremely' warm days in the coming decades and centuries. Although it is clear that the Earth is warming, uncertainty remains in the progression of those developments. These climate models are inherently wrong, but are they useful? Climate models give a proper representation of present-day climate, which we know from validations with observations. These models, which contain fundamental physical processes and have been developed over the past decades, cannot be validated in the increased greenhouse-climate of the future. We can however, compare the models with observations of warmer climates in the past, which are similar to the future climate, to get an understanding of these type of `extreme' climates. Although (unfortunately) no direct observations are available for the past hundred millions of years, we do find indirect evidence about the past climate (for example fossils or ice cores). These so-called proxies provide an archive of past climate and can be used to compare with climate model simulations. As a result, the combination of models and proxies of past climate can be used to get a better understanding of how a future climate, which is warmer than today, may look like. A primary part of the Earth's archive to reconstruct past climates is provided by marine sediments, consisting of (fossil remains from) microplankton. The microplankton species in the bottom sediments originated from a location close to the ocean surface before they started sinking to the bottom. Hence, microplankton at the ocean bottom is representative of the ocean surface environment. It is often assumed that these planktonic species sunk vertically downwards. However, the microplankton is transported laterally by ocean currents during its sinking journey. In this thesis, we investigate how sedimentary distributions of microplankton can be explained. We determine how sinking microplankton is advected by ocean currents, which may have great implications for the interpretation of sedimentary microplankton data. For example, subtropical and (sub)polar microplankton species alternate in sediment cores near Antarctica from 34 million years ago until the present-day. If subtropical microplankton species are found near Antarctica in a specific time period, two hypotheses can be tested: (a) Antarctica had a subtropical climate, or (b) Antarctica was not subtropical, but the microplankton were transported laterally by ocean currents and originated from another region with a subtropical climate. We study microplankton particles at the ocean bottom, which got there after a sinking journey, and determine their origin at the ocean surface back again. The ultimate goal is to bridge a gap between the models, which represent the global climate, and the measurements, representing the climate at specific geographic locations. As such, we study past climates back again, to get an idea how we get there in the future.
... Macro-scale biodiversity patterns, therefore, reflect the overarching geophysical structures of the globe such as the well-known latitudinal gradients of biodiversity (Willig et al. 2003) and associated ecosystem functioning (e.g., litter decomposition in streams via detritivores; Boyero et al. 2015). Nevertheless, within constantly changing environments, the species composition and geographical boundaries of biomes (called ecotones) are not fixed, but are fluid over evolutionary timescales (Haywood et al. 2019). This biodiversity-environment coupling has been disrupted by agriculture and urbanisation, and the appetite of humans for resources and raw materials and their carelessness in handling waste. ...
Book
Until now, biological invasions have been conceptualised and studied mainly as a linear process: from introduction to establishment to spread. This volume charts a new course for the field, drawing on key developments in network ecology and complexity science. It defines an agenda for Invasion Science 2.0 by providing new framings and classification of research topics and by offering tentative solutions to vexing problems. In particular, it conceptualises a transformative ecosystem as an open adaptive network with critical transitions and turnover, with resident species heuristically learning and fine-tuning their niches and roles in a multiplayer eco-evolutionary game. It erects signposts pertaining to network interactions, structures, stability, dynamics, scaling, and invasibility. It is not a recipe book or a road map, but an atlas of possibilities: a 'hitchhiker's guide'.