Fig 4 - uploaded by Yves Tramblay
Content may be subject to copyright.
Generic adaptive capacity and insensitivity to climate change in North Africa (own representation based on CIA 2018; UNDP 2016). The lower three variables (related to agriculture) are taken from Table S1 and

Generic adaptive capacity and insensitivity to climate change in North Africa (own representation based on CIA 2018; UNDP 2016). The lower three variables (related to agriculture) are taken from Table S1 and

Source publication
Article
Full-text available
North Africa is considered a climate change hot spot. Existing studies either focus on the physical aspects of climate change or discuss the social ones. The present article aims to address this divide by assessing and comparing the climate change vulnerability of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia and linking it to its social implications...

Contexts in source publication

Context 1
... all three indicators into account, the impact-specific adaptive capacity is lower in Algeria and Egypt than in Tunisia and Morocco, while not enough data is available to assess the impactspecific adaptive capacity in Libya. Figure 4 combines key vulnerability indicators of generic adaptive capacity and sensitivity. The gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the human development index, and the education index were chosen (rather than all six indicators from Table S2) because of a lack of data on two of the indicators for Libya and in order to compare the results to Schilling et al. (2012). ...
Context 2
... the orange plot areas, it is obvious that Morocco has the smallest plot area and is hence the most vulnerable to climate change. Algeria and Tunisia have similarly shaped plot areas. In both countries, the importance of rain for agriculture is a key weakness, while a relatively high income level strengthens the adaptive capacity. According to Fig. 4, Egypt has the highest generic adaptive capacity and lowest sensitivity to climate change. When comparing the current situation with the assessment from 2012, increases in income can be observed in all countries but Libya, where the generic adaptive capacity shows a declining ...

Similar publications

Article
Full-text available
During 2002–2018, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) accounted globally for 36.1 per cent of terrorist incidents, 49.3 per cent of terrorist‐induced casualties, and 21.4 per cent of conflict deaths. One focus here is to investigate how MENA's terrorist attacks and conflicts compare with those in the world's other six regions during selected pe...

Citations

... Many of these studies reported significant relationships between level of education, financial capabilities and incomes, and years of farming experience as the major drivers of adaptation options adopted by rural farmers in the SSA (see Table 3). These factors not only control the adoption of adaptation in agriculture but also in other sectors such as water resources and energy (Schilling et al., 2020). The major evidence from the literature is that research efforts are very much needed to develop adaptation strategies and methods that are suitable for smallholder farmers in SSA (Mashizha, 2019, particularly in the dry zone where livestock are the predominant basis of livelihood. ...
... Many of these studies reported significant relationships between level of education, financial capabilities and incomes, and years of farming experience as the major drivers of adaptation options adopted by rural farmers in the SSA (see Table 3). These factors not only control the adoption of adaptation in agriculture but also in other sectors such as water resources and energy (Schilling et al., 2020). The major evidence from the literature is that research efforts are very much needed to develop adaptation strategies and methods that are suitable for smallholder farmers in SSA (Mashizha, 2019, particularly in the dry zone where livestock are the predominant basis of livelihood. ...
Article
Full-text available
This study seeks to provide a critical overview of the existing evidence on extreme climate events and the adaptation options of the affected population in order to help scholars navigate the field. The study examined the recent extreme climate events that occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the climate change adaptation options mentioned in the literature, and the need for international technological transfer in SSA. 181 peer-reviewed publications were evaluated on the following topics: 1) the impacts of climate extremes in SSA; 2) the adaptation options discussed in the literature for the region; 3) the analysis of the needs and the gaps of the international technology transfer in SSA, and 4) the various impact areas of the technology transfer on the adaptive capacity in SSA. The major finding from this study is that the impacts of climate change have been observed in the region, with many extreme events leading to reductions in crop yield qualities and quantities, with much greater impacts on the smallholder farmers' livelihoods in SSA countries. Based on these findings climate change conceptual framework is proposed which summarises the observed impacts of climate change on agriculture and food systems in SSA countries. The study concluded that there are new adaptation options that SSA countries can adopt from developed countries, and that much greater agricultural technological transfer is needed to facilitate better adaptation to climate change in SSA.
... north of Africa, south Spain and middle east) exhibit a in February (blue). In all North Africa countries, these pixels mainly correspond to shurblands, savanna, grasslands and sparse crops (Schilling et al., 2020), which have a remarkable change in their canopies during the years. In fact, it is covered by herbaceous cover in winter that it is removed by tilling in the summer. ...
Article
The multi-resolution analysis based on wavelet transform (WT) has widely proved its effectiveness for the analysis of non-stationary time series (TS) in the remote sensing field. However, there are three essential parameters affecting wavelet-aided data in vegetation dynamics detection. This study proposes a new methodology that serves for the proper selection of the most critical parameters to carry out an optimal analysis for vegetation seasonal and long-term dynamics, specifically adapted to NDVI TS. The specific objectives are: (1) to simulate a TS dataset to understand the best WT parameter performance for trend and seasonal changes detection, and (2) to assess the impact of those WT parameters using NDVI MODIS TS in the Mediterranean area along the period 2001–2019. Different types of trends and WT were considered (i.e., Discrete WT (DWT) and Maximal Overlap DWT (MODWT)) in the simulated dataset. The best WT parameters were calculated based on an iterative algorithm that computes the trend and seasonal components using the optimal level of decomposition for each TS and mother wavelet (MW). Then, the findings obtained from the simulated data were exploited using Earth observation data. In the step, the Theil–Sen’s slope (𝑄) derived for the best MWs was calculated to provide the trend magnitude and direction. The z-score and energy to Shannon entropy ratio (𝑅(𝑆)) were computed to select the most adequate MW based on pixel characterization. On one hand, the simulated results proved the Multi-resolution analysis DWT (MRA-DWT) as the most optimal wavelet type. Level 5 of decomposition was obtained in 99% and 72% of simulated TS according to the trend and seasonal analysis, respectively. Symlet family gave the optimal results in 92% (trend) and 64% (seasonal) of simulated TS. On the other hand, based on 𝑅(𝑆), sym12 MW from Symlet family showed the most dominant wavelet for forest, savanna and mosaic land covers, followed by db14 MW from Daubechies family which was dominated in cropland. From more practical adaptation, sym12 was revealed as an effective solution for all the pixels in the Mediterranean area with a relative error lower than 15%. The vegetation change analysis in the Mediterranean area showed a relationship between 𝑄𝑁𝐷𝑉 𝐼 and precipitation in almost 37% of the area, being Turkey, Greece and North Africa the regions with a high correspondence with precipitation. Around 5% of the study area showed to be possibly affected by land degradation processes.
... These needs are met by imports, which weigh heavily on the balance of trade. Many studies have shown that Morocco is exposed to climate change, especially global warming (Schilling et al. 2020) and has also been exposed to climate change consequences including droughts, high temperatures, floods, water shortages, and arable land reduction. In recent decades, there has been an increase of about 1.05 °C in average temperatures and about 0.05% in evapotranspiration with a significant irregularity in rainfall (Stour and Agoumi 2008;El Harraki et al. 2020). ...
Article
Full-text available
Rainfed agriculture is very sensitive to agro-meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, sunshine and radiation or hygrometry and, therefore, the evolution of crops is necessarily affected by changing climatic conditions. The main expected expressions of climate change in Morocco include reduced rainfall, increased temperatures and intensification of extreme risks such as drought, heat waves, frost, floods, etc. Therefore, the development of methods for modeling and early prediction of crop yields in the Gharb plain, located in northwestern Morocco, is essential. Machine learning is a tool that can help make key decisions regarding crop yield prediction. The effects of climate change on the spread of autumn rainfed cereals (durum wheat, soft wheat and, barley), an important agro-food source in the Gharb plain, were assessed in this study. A multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural network (ANN) and, random forest (RF) model based on the integration of drought indices derived from satellite imagery and reanalysis meteorological data. Model accuracies were calculated and compared. Correlation values suggested that yield decreases with decreasing crop and soil moisture in early spring and with higher thermal conditions near harvest. In general, all drought indices showed the best effect during the stages when yield is most photo-synthetically dynamic (spring), in contrast to the early stages of the vegetative cycle (autumn and winter). The strength of the statistical relationships found by the MLR, ANN, and RF methods were quite similar, with some improvements found by RF. A large number of true positives (hits) of yield loss occurrence with hit rate (HR) values above 90% was obtained.
... With accelerated urbanization worldwide, economic development brings rapid population growth , and the demand for industrial and domestic water increases (Florke et al., 2018;Garrick et al., 2019). Additionally, climate change in nature brings extreme weather effects that exacerbate water scarcity by causing water resources to be unevenly distributed in time and space (Greve et al., 2018;Schilling et al., 2020;Schilling et al., 2020). In many developing countries, due to technological constraints, the long-term economic development model based on high energy consumption and pollution has caused damage to the regional ecological environment, resulting in the decline of ecosystem functions and frequent problems such as water and environmental pollution (Bekturganov et al., 2016;Best, 2019;Wang et al., 2021). ...
... With accelerated urbanization worldwide, economic development brings rapid population growth , and the demand for industrial and domestic water increases (Florke et al., 2018;Garrick et al., 2019). Additionally, climate change in nature brings extreme weather effects that exacerbate water scarcity by causing water resources to be unevenly distributed in time and space (Greve et al., 2018;Schilling et al., 2020;Schilling et al., 2020). In many developing countries, due to technological constraints, the long-term economic development model based on high energy consumption and pollution has caused damage to the regional ecological environment, resulting in the decline of ecosystem functions and frequent problems such as water and environmental pollution (Bekturganov et al., 2016;Best, 2019;Wang et al., 2021). ...
Article
Full-text available
Defining a reasonable and feasible watershed ecological compensation threshold is the key to protecting watershed ecological functions and maintaining the sustainable utilization of watershed ecosystems. However, many studies have obtained compensation values that are too high to promote the implementation of ecological compensation policies. This study chose the upper reaches of the Yangtze River as the research area, taking water resources closer to people’s daily needs as the evaluation object. Based on the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model and grey water footprint method, the ecological compensation threshold model for water resources was established. Combined with the eco-compensation priority sequence coefficient identification of protected areas and beneficiary areas and allowed for the measurement of the watershed ecological compensation value in 2015 and 2020. Finally, compare the advantages and disadvantages of different ecological compensation calculation methods, compare the gap between different watershed ecological compensation standards and the theoretical threshold globally. The results showed that from 2015 to 2020, the value of the water content in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River increased, while the value of the grey water footprint decreased. The classified watershed ecological compensation beneficiary areas were mainly concentrated in the central-eastern and southern parts of the upper Yangtze River, while the ecological compensation protected areas were concentrated in the western and northwestern parts. The mean absolute values of the watershed ecological compensation thresholds for each prefecture-level city and state ranged from 0.43 to 24.63 billion CNY in 2015 and from 0.67 to 41.60 billion CNY in 2020, which were close to the actual values. Among the different land-use types, the water conservation service value per unit area of shrubs was the highest. The lower limit value of watershed ecological compensation calculated using the grey water footprint method was closer to the amount of compensation in practice than was the commonly used opportunity cost method. The findings of the study can help improve the watershed ecological compensation mechanism in the upper Yangtze River region, promote win–win cooperation among transboundary watershed areas, and form a harmonious and stable green development model.
... Additionally, Morocco is considered to be one of the most sensitive countries towards climate change due to rain-fed agriculture representing more than 90% of the production [5,37]. Some of the direct effects of climate change in Morocco are the shift in rainfall patterns that causes yield losses, and the recurring droughts that affect social stability and accentuate the existing inequality between farmers [36,38]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Agriculture is a vital sector in Morocco through its contribution to the gross domestic product (13%) and workforce (30%). However, the sector faces important sustainability challenges due to Morocco’s dependence on rain-fed crops for 90% of the production and its vulnerability to climate change. In this context, organic agriculture presents itself as a promising alternative to valorize production and mitigate climate change effects. This article describes the dynamics and development of the organic agriculture niche in Morocco through the lens of the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) on socio-technical transitions. The MLP is a widely used framework that bases its analysis on transitions being the result of the interaction of niches, socio-technical regimes, and socio-technical landscape. Results of the literature review and semi-structured interviews show that, although the organic niche is relatively well established (11,000 ha of organic land area in 2019), it is still developing at a slower rate than expected due to multiple setbacks. While organic farming does solve many sustainability challenges that Moroccan agriculture faces, it still lacks the infrastructure and human capital to succeed as a niche. All in all, organic farming is still in the first transition stages and can follow a multitude of pathways before becoming relevant in the current agri-food system.
... The impact of CSA practices on smallholder farmers in Algeria is poorly documented when compared to other African nations. Here, we included data collected for Maghreb countries (Tunisia and Morocco) which present similarities in terms of climatic conditions and CSA practices [62,63]. ...
Article
Full-text available
The agricultural sector contributes approximately 10–20% of the total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. Consequently, climate change can negatively affect crop yields and livestock production thus threatening food security, especially in a vulnerable continent like Africa. This review provides an overview of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices and their impacts on smallholder farmers in five African countries (Algeria, Senegal, Benin, Nigeria and Zambia). A total of 164 published articles on CSA practices were reviewed. Analysis of extracted data showed that CSA practices are classified as follows: agricultural practices, restoration practices of degraded lands, forest and cropland regeneration practices, practices in the livestock sub-sector, water resources and use of weather and climate information services. Moreover, climate change effects differed alongside strategies adapted from one country to another. Adoption of these strategies was often influenced by financial means put in place by governments, the role of policy legislation, access to climate information and farmers’ intellectual level. To address this deficiency, scientific-outcome-based research should be used to increase the effectiveness of climate adaptation management programs. In conclusion, to enhance the uptake of climate-smart agricultural practices in Africa, this review recommends the use of scientific-research-driven adaptation measures and prioritization of climate change in governments’ agendas.
... It may accelerate urbanization, exposing farmers who relocate to cities and towns to severe risks of infectious diseases and rising food prices [1] (Serdeczny et al., 2016). The most noticeable effect is that all countries face significant risks of rising temperatures and drought under climate change [2], and droughts will likely become more common in presently dry regions, as will the problems associated with water availability, food security, and farmer's livelihoods in rural areas by the end of the 21st century. ...
Article
Full-text available
Regional climate is complicated and unpredictable in the context of global climate change. Farmers on the Loess Plateau, who rely on agriculture and natural resources for subsistence, are one of the groups feeling the early effects of climate change. Their vulnerability is determined by their degree of connection with the natural environment. Frequent droughts on the Loess Plateau have severely challenged farmers’ livelihoods, although some actions have been taken to adapt to these changes. To enable farmers to find sustainable livelihood strategies in challenging natural conditions, we established a research framework to link livelihood vulnerability and resilience and applied it to Jiaxian County, a specific research area in the Loess Plateau of China. To validate previous research, we studied the fluctuation trends of farmers’ livelihood vulnerability and livelihood resilience in the past 30 years and the interrelationships between these two trends and their influencing factors. The results are as follows: since 1990, livelihood vulnerability has been polarized; however, moderate vulnerability has always been dominant. Livelihood resilience shows a trend of continuous enhancement. The relationship between livelihood vulnerability and resilience is complex, and the direction of change between the two can be both similar and different. The topography, arable land conditions, soil quality, and irrigation conditions in different areas impact vulnerability and resilience, and the degree of impact is different in different periods. Farmers’ livelihood strategies depend on their cognitive decision making and livelihood assets, which are critical vulnerability and resilience factors. Most farmers in the study area have undergone significant livelihood strategy changes, while some maintain their original livelihood strategies. These findings provide policy implications for reducing vulnerability, enhancing resilience, and helping smallholder farmers find sustainable livelihood strategies to avoid poverty traps.
... As a primordial step towards sustainable solutions, the present research not only aimed to identify the risk zone using drought indices, but also to critically assess the overall conditions in each distinct area of the basin. Most of the studies critically assessed the spatio-temporal trends of the precipitation and temperature impacts only (Schilling et al. 2020) which are regarded as the most relevant parameter for pragmatic simulations (Hao et al. 2018); Raha and Gayen, 2020). Drought are sometimes analysed using simple one dimension to critical earth models of global and regional origin having lowbred spatial resolution limit in understanding micro-and meso-scale drought progression (Saharwardi et al. 2021). ...
Article
Full-text available
The present study identifies drought risk zones in a river basin by analysing Landsat images from three selected precipitation deficit years (2000, 2009 & 2018). A set of seven parameters including standard precipitation index (SPI), long-term temperature condition index (TCI), long-term vegetation condition index (VCI), vegetation health index (VHI), long-term soil moisture index (SMI), long-term soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) and long-term normalised difference water index (NDWI) has been assessed, and drought risk zones have been identified using the fuzzy DEMATEL model to classify the causative and effective groups better represented through the causal diagram. A summary of the results shows that VHI, SPI, and TCI are the three most influential indicators of drought. A yield anomaly index (YAI) has been calculated for validation and the cropping pattern has been mapped.
... As a resource that human beings rely on for both survival and development, water has received wide attention for a really long period, from the Chinese traditional allusion Dayu flood control to the construction of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, even the impact of global warming on water resources (Wilhite et al. 2007;Luo et al. 2015;Schilling et al. 2020). Therefore, this study tries to track the research trends and characteristics in the fields of EGWS. ...
Article
Full-text available
With the extensive growth of economy, the water system of the globe is under unprecedented pressure. So, the relationship between economic growth and water sustainability has been a common concern for the academia. The purpose of this paper is to use the bibliometric method to sort out the research progresses on economic growth and water sustainability during the past 30 years. More importantly, it tries to recognize the research hotspots and future trends in this field, to provide valuable directions for later research. A systemic review and bibliometric analysis are conducted by retrieving 1287 papers on water sustainability and economic growth. The results indicate that the number of articles related to the field of economic growth and water sustainability has increased steadily. The 1287 articles are published in 581 different journals, where the top 20 publishing journals have published 31.31% of them, and Sustainability and Journal of Cleaner Production have published the most retrieved articles. By introducing the Mapping Knowledge Domain with the combination of the software of COOC and VOSviewer, five clusters of research hotspots are summarized: economic growth and water consumption; water-energy-food-economy nexus and circular economy; climate change, water scarcity and water quality; water resources management and water footprint; wastewater management and valorization.