Figure - available from: Nature Communications
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General overview of human observations of rainfall changes in comparison with instrumental observations of precipitation A Ecozonal distribution of selected rainfall observation types made in subsistence-oriented communities and their agreement with instrument-based metrics; (B) Distribution of subsistence-oriented communities reporting changes in rainfall patterns (black circles), superposed on the decadal trend in Dimensionless Seasonality Index (DSI)2,22 (1955–2005). Solid grey lines indicate −23.5 and 23.5 degrees latitude (Tropics). Dashed lines indicate −35 and 35 degrees latitude (Subtropics); (C) Distribution of subsistence-oriented communities reporting changes in rainfall predictability (black circles), superposed on the decadal trend in DSI2,22 (1955–2005). Solid grey lines indicate −23.5 and 23.5 degrees latitude (Tropics). Dashed lines indicate −35 and 35 degrees latitude (Subtropics). TP Total Precipitation, R95p Annual total precipitation from days >95 percentile, CDD Consecutive Dry Days, PDSI Palmer Drought Severity Index. Human observations are provided as source data.
Source publication
Shifting precipitation regimes are a well-documented and pervasive consequence of climate change. Subsistence-oriented communities worldwide can identify changes in rainfall patterns that most affect their lives. Here we scrutinize the importance of human-based rainfall observations (collated through a literature review spanning from 1994 to 2013)...
Citations
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.
