Figure 2 - uploaded by Olha Levytska
Content may be subject to copyright.
Forecast of the levels of the natural environment of social vulnerability in the Carpathian region of Ukraine by 2023: a scenario approach Source: compiled based on the authors' calculations.
Source publication
Purpose. The purpose of the current research is identification and integral estimation of ecological determinants of forming environment of an area’s social vulnerability (on the example of the oblasts of the Carpathian region of Ukraine).
Methodology / approach. The empirics of environment of the social vulnerability based on the identification o...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... an active regional policy for reducing the social vulnerability due to the improvement of the natural environment, a significant effect can be obtained, as evidenced by forecast calculations of the levels of the environment according to the optimistic scenario (0.440 in 2022 compared to 0.381 in 2019). Instead, the lack of effective mechanisms for solving the problematic issues of the natural environment in the Carpathian region will lead to a deepening of the problem of social vulnerability in the territory (Figure 2). It is noteworthy that, according to the forecast model in 2023, it could be expected a decrease in the level of the natural environment of social vulnerability to a point of 0.138, which is 2.2 times less than in 2010. ...
Context 2
... an active regional policy for reducing the social vulnerability due to the improvement of the natural environment, a significant effect can be obtained, as evidenced by forecast calculations of the levels of the environment according to the optimistic scenario (0.440 in 2022 compared to 0.381 in 2019). Instead, the lack of effective mechanisms for solving the problematic issues of the natural environment in the Carpathian region will lead to a deepening of the problem of social vulnerability in the territory (Figure 2). It is noteworthy that, according to the forecast model in 2023, it could be expected a decrease in the level of the natural environment of social vulnerability to a point of 0.138, which is 2.2 times less than in 2010. ...
Similar publications
![Fig. 1. The Bystrianka dataset (1969-1992); left-boxplots of SH [cm],...](profile/Martin-Janco/publication/366293770/figure/fig1/AS:11431281125688257@1678399458237/The-Bystrianka-dataset-1969-1992-left-boxplots-of-SH-cm-SWE-mm-and-r-km-m-3_Q320.jpg)
![Fig. 2. The Jalovčianka dataset (2012-2022); left-boxplots of SH [cm],...](profile/Martin-Janco/publication/366293770/figure/fig2/AS:11431281125705725@1678399458437/The-Jalovcianka-dataset-2012-2022-left-boxplots-of-SH-cm-SWE-mm-and-r-km-m-3_Q320.jpg)
This study presents the new record of brachiopods from the Middle Miocene deposits of the locality of Oslavany, Moravia, Czech Republic. The assemblage contains five species, i.e. Terebratula sp., Megathiris detruncata (Gmelin, 1791), Joania cordata (Risso, 1826), Argyrotheca cuneata (Risso, 1826), and Platidia sp. Apart from the species J. cordata...
The monitoring of alpine habitats showed that they are some of the most threatened habitats in Romania. In order to restore and maintain the mountain pine shrubs of this area to a favourable conservation status, fully in line with the existing EU and national legislation and environmental requirements, some management measures are proposed. To achi...
Context
Ecosystem services provided by mountain forests are critically linked to forest structure. Social-ecological disturbance regimes (i.e., the rate, frequency, and patch size distribution of disturbances driven by interacting natural and anthropogenic processes) and land use affect forest structure, but their specific impacts are not fully und...
Citations
... It is imperative that the natural environment be subjected to balanced, scientifically based control over the utilisation, reproduction and conservation of natural resources, which is accompanied by a widespread increase in public environmental costs. In the context of agricultural practice, it is crucial to underscore that only those rural areas where agricultural activity is conducted in an environmentally safe manner, utilising optimal combinations of technological, chemical, hydro-reclamation, biotechnical, and agricultural nature management practices, will remain environmentally safe (Brychko, 2018;Mulska, 2022). ...
The objective of this article is to establish the theoretical and methodological foundations and develop the applied tools for environmental insurance. The research employs a range of methodologies, including dialectical cognition, system and structural analysis, synthesis, integrated approaches, regulatory support, and others. Problem statement. The objective of this study is to elucidate the role of environmental insurance in enhancing environmental safety in the event of accidental environmental pollution. In the case of global disasters, it is challenging to discern whether they have a purely natural or anthropogenic origin. The majority of contemporary disasters are a combination of natural and anthropogenic causes, with the resulting damage being significant and difficult to quantify. In light of these considerations, it becomes evident that environmental insurance assumes a pivotal role in periods of economic turbulence. Methodology. The research is based on the generalisation of the conceptual framework of environmental insurance, the justification of the causes and consequences of the need for environmental risk insurance, and the development of industrial and agricultural production. A regression analysis was conducted on 30 agricultural enterprises, with the parameters of the regression equation determined using a matrix of initial data for correlation and regression analysis of profitability. The results of the study show that accidental environmental pollution due to accidental circumstances causes significant damage. To reduce environmental risks, it is proposed to create a system of environmental insurance, the main prerequisite of which is the principle of cross-border functioning. Results. It has been demonstrated that environmental risk insurance represents a valuable instrument for guaranteeing environmental security. It is evident that in the event of unforeseen circumstances, the potential for significant accidental environmental pollution necessitates the implementation of environmental insurance to ensure the attainment of environmental safety standards for all participants. Practical implication. The findings of the study, including its recommendations, are of practical interest and may be recommended for implementation in the practice of insuring agricultural enterprises against environmental risks. Value / Оriginality. The fundamental premise of environmental insurance for agricultural enterprises is to enhance the existing framework and substantiate the operational mechanism for environmental insurance coverage of their land resources. The potential applications of environmental risk insurance in the context of industrial and agricultural production are explored. In order to assess environmental risks, it is proposed that the most serious threats should first be identified and ranked, and then the environmental risk should be assessed, taking into account factors such as economic damage and mortality. It is demonstrated that in order to effectively evaluate the feasibility of a regional environmental insurance system, it is essential to develop an organisational and economic framework for implementing such a system in the region.
... У теоретико-методологічному плані розроблення проблематики вразливості, пошуку моделей стійкості суспільних систем у протидії ризикам вразливості антропогенної, соціальної чи макроекономічної сфер, аналізуванні факторів і мереж вразливості та кореляції їх з наслідками прояву нестабільності соціальних систем тощо серед зарубіжних виділяють роботи таких авторів: В. Аджер Наукові розвідки вітчизняних учених, інтереси яких стосуються питань вразливості населення шляхом дослідження низки соціально-економічних проблем, пов'язаних з ринком праці, таких як безробіття, бідність, загострення нерівності за доходами, рівнем життя, з рівнем соціального захисту, соціального забезпечення, страхових гарантій, а також з прогнозними наслідками демовідтворювальних і міграційних процесів, представлені в працях А. М. Колота та О. А. Грішнової [4], Е. М. Лібанової [5], О. В. Макарової [6], О. Ф. Новікової [7], А. І. Мокія [8], У. Я. Садової [9], Л. Г. Стожок [10], О. О. Резнікової [11] та ін. Результати нової черги досліджень соціальної вразливості, зокрема представників корпусу львівської економічної школи регіоналістики, роботи яких торкаються поглиблення методологічних і практичних основ оцінювання рівня соціальної вразливості, що ґрунтуються на системному моніторингу територій і відстеженні регіональних змін і диференціацій складових соціальної вразливості, розроблення механізмів проактивної політики її зниження в регіональних порівняннях, загалом ретроспективи формування концепції соціальної вразливості, відображені в напрацюваннях Т. Г. Васильціва та О. О. Левицької [12], О. П. Мульскої [12; 13], Л. К. Семів [13], М. М. Біль [14], О. Т. Риндзак [15], Р. Т. Теслюка [16], О. В. Махонюка [17], Н. І. Андрусишин [18], М. В. Бачинської [19], І. Є. Бараняка [20] та ін. ...
... А ще фронт протистояння екозагрозам, таким як руйнація біосферних об'єктів та очисних споруд, забруднення акваторій, тотальне замінування територій (що досягло 30% усієї площі держави), знищення родючих ґрунтів, криза популяції рослин і тварин у природних екосистемах, вигорання лісів, знищення міст, пожежі на нафтобазах, шкідливі викиди хімічних речовин, які містили боєприпаси, утворення величезної кількості відходів і, як наслідок, екологічний аспект уразливості [12] до негативних змін клімату, ризиків хвороб і вододефіциту. ...
The article emphasizes the vulnerability of the Ukrainian population in terms of risks and threats of a full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine, primarily in the determinants of the political, economic, and social components with a priority emphasis on the importance of security. Attention is focused on the review of the factors of the geopolitical and geoeconomic nature of vulnerability, especially in the socio-humanistic context in relation to the Ukrainian population. The article shows that social vulnerability highlights the disturbance of the balance of stability of dynamic equilibrium in the vital activity of the “population” system at various levels of its organization, which reflects the well-being of a human on riskogenic influences in the social environment in the ratio of the terms “vulnerability – sustainability”, generating corresponding changes in one’s vital activity in further stochastic life strategies. The problems of social vulnerability are highlighted especially through the economic sector. When considering the multifactorial nature of its occurrence, diagnosis, assessment, analysis, and forecasting of the consequential effects of the manifestation of many stressful situations, social vulnerability is tracked through the optics of the reflection of the population itself on the growth of risks and threats of various origins. The article suggests a concept of social deficit, which reveals the phenomenon of imbalance in society’s ability to meet the needs of citizens in social security protection against vulnerability in the conditions of uneven socio-economic development of regions and violation of the proportions of their social protection potential. At the same time, the characteristics of the emergence, manifestation, and accumulation of socially acceptable deficits of a safe society are markers of the understanding of social vulnerability, which delineate the boundary that the society in riskgenous states should not cross due to the reasons of falling into particularly difficult social conditions due to limited resources for further satisfying the needs and rights of the population.
The article proves that social resilience is the ability of the system to provide dynamic equilibrium. This approach made it possible to calculate empirical indicators of social resilience within the threshold limit and optimal values. The article substantiates that the emergence of new threats changes the previous state of the system, which can also be within acceptable limits (state of dynamic equilibrium). Social resilience enters into a new state, with different characteristics from the previous one, while not only the structure of the system (composition of elements) changes, but also the system relationships between indicators and the strength of influence of structural components on the system. The authors suggest carrying out studies of social vulnerability through the gradation of social resilience levels, which is a structural and compositional characteristic of the state of the economic system and reflects the functioning of such spheres as the quality of social and labour relations, the level and quality of life and demographic, environmental, and food security. The article proves that the effectiveness of monitoring social resilience for assessing the social vulnerability of the population correlates with the principles of complexity, consistency, hierarchy, adequacy, unambiguity, and continuity. The authors use a methodical approach to the calculation of vectors of threshold values of indicators of social resilience – (1) lower limit – upper limit; (2) lower optimal – upper optimal, which characterizes the permissible interval, the intersection of which means a violation of the equilibrium state. The proposed methodical approach to the study of social vulnerability is based on the formation of a system of components and indicators (grouped into regressors and catalysts), the substantiation of a rational methodology for normalizing indicators, determination of constant or dynamic coefficients of weight significance of indicators and components, as well as threshold values. The conceptual task of regulating catalysts, regressors, and components of social resistance is to determine their level (indicator value) in the system of indicators, which will ensure that the values of the compositional coefficient are found within the optimal threshold values.
Purpose. The article aims to substantiate the need to study the slowdown in the dynamics of development of the Ukrainian socio-economic system in the face of the large-scale Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, and the decrease in the overall level of resistance to global challenges and threats. Design/methodology/approach. The author of the article uses the method of literature review to substantiate the need to research the resilience of the socio-economic system in uncertainty and economic crises based on the new conditions of large-scale war. The scientific research methods of theoretical-logical explanation, systematization and explanation, and deterministic analysis are used to examine the nature and necessity of assessing the resilience of the socio-economic system. Findings. The conducted studies show that the main destructive factors weakening the business resilience in war are: the unpredictability of the security situation in the country, lack of own capital and expensive credit funds, lack of enough solvent customers in the domestic market, destruction of supply chains, as well as long and expensive logistics. Meanwhile, the unblocking of Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea in the late summer of 2022 became the driving force for strengthening the resilience of domestic businesses to the shock of the war, boosting the export activity of Ukrainian companies. The destructive factors weakening the resilience of the Ukrainian socio-economic system in 2014–2021 and after the beginning of the large-scale war in Ukraine are characterized. The article reveals that the decrease in the social resilience of Ukraine to the shock of the 2022 war has become both the cause and the effect of the decrease in the solvency of the population and its sociopsychological maladjustment, has aggravated the problems with the migration of Ukrainians abroad, and has created the distortions in the labor market. The article proves that the large-scale Russian war against Ukraine has decreased the resilience of domestic foreign economic activity, caused humanitarian and migration crises, and slowed down the dynamic of the Ukrainian economy. The regions have faced significant losses of endogenous capacity. Practical implications. The article emphasizes the objective need to review the country’s macroeconomic strategy in terms of securing its long-term economic stability and thus improving its resilience to new possible shocks and threats. It also offers and substantiates the drivers limiting the resilience of the Ukrainian socio-economic system in the current conditions, including deregulation of economic activity, mobilization of resources to improve the country’s fiscal situation, increase of national savings to curb inflation, control of capital outflow from the country, accelerated integration of the domestic businesses with global production, trade, and financial networks to stabilize the dynamics of the country’s economy and restore its resilience. Originality/value. The value of the study lies in the establishment and analysis of the cause-and-effect relationship between the capacity of the drivers of a socio-economic system’s resilience and the actual results (consequences) of the impact of the shock on the development of the system.
