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Over the next 20 years, the United States airline industry is expected to hire in excess of 95,000 pilots. This hiring will be the result of new aircraft growth, pilot retirements, and pilot attrition from the industry for reasons other than retirement. In addition, government regulations may also cause an increase in the number of new pilots requi...
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... Background There are three pilot certificates which allow for employability — commercial, Airline Transport Pilot (ATP), and Certified Flight Instructor (CFI). A pilot holding one of these certification levels is able to be compensated for operating aircraft. On August 2, 2013, pilots who are employed at part 121 air carriers will be required to hold an ATP certificate. 1 Current requirements needed to obtain the ATP will likely require several years of academic instruction and flight training. Figure 1 depicts the basic flow pilots follow on their way to the ...
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... According to Lutte (2014), projections for the aviation sector in the United States anticipates to witness the recruitment of approximately 95,000 pilots over the course of the next twenty years. The forthcoming recruitment procedure was expected to arise as a result of the growth in aircraft operations, the retirement of pilots, and the attrition of pilots from the industry owing to factors unrelated to retirement. ...
... Multiple different options were considered and discussed. Based on the findings of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in August 2011 (Lutte, 2014), it was estimated that the airline industry in the United States made a substantial contribution of more than $1.3 trillion to the national economy, or around 5.2% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Furthermore, it is worth noting that this particular sector played a crucial role in sustaining around 376,000 employment opportunities within the US domestic labour market. ...
... The aviation industry recognizes that pilots constitute a significant investment in terms of human resources. Hence, there has been significant scholarly and commercial attention directed towards the subjects of employee retention, training, and retraining, as evidenced by a multitude of academic publications (Krikunov, 2013;Elisov and Gromov, 2014;Lutte et al., 2014;Judy, 2018;Sun, 2021;CAPA, 2018;AIS, 2019). The problem of pilot shortage had been widely acknowledged as a significant obstacle prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (Merdith, 2019). ...
... Put another way, the demand for airline pilots is going to outweigh the supply by far. Unfortunately, the high entry cost of new pilots to the industry and the relatively low salaries are averting a quick fix to this problem (Lutte, 2014). ...
Single Pilot Operations (SPO) have drawn significant attention during the last years, as a result of the increased dual flight crew expenses, and as a remedy to the impending pilot shortage which is estimated to manifest itself in the following years. The main objective of this study was to explore the factors that influence the Greek passengers’ acceptance of SPO. To that end, 12 semi-structured interviews were conducted and analyzed through Thematic Analysis by combining both a priori and inductive coding procedures.
Qualitative findings of this process revealed seven factors influencing passengers’ intention to accept and fly with a SPO aircraft. The three predominant factors were the reputation of the airline company, the degree of passengers’ knowledge regarding SPO safety, and the track record of successful SPO over time. Furthermore, four additional factors were found to influence passengers’ intention such as the urgency to travel, the price of the SPO tickets, the social pressure, and the duration of the flight.
By drawing on the current study’s findings, specific recommendations are proposed in the case of SPO implementation, especially from the industry’s perspective. Finally, it is advised for any future SPO marketing strategy to take into consideration such factors that can eventually result in a smoother transition to single-piloted flights.
... However, commensurate with the increase in demand there is also an accelerating, global shortage of airline pilots. Estimates vary: In the US it is projected that there will be a shortage of 35,000-40,000 pilots by 2035 [26,27], the majority of which will be borne by the regional carriers. Boeing expect that between 2021 and 2040, the world's airlines will need 612,000 new pilots [28]: 130,000 new pilots will be required in North America: 115,000 in Europe and 250,000 in the China/Asia-Pacific region. ...
For financial and operational reasons many aircraft manufacturers are working on the development of single-pilot commercial aircraft. It is suggested that cargo operations may commence in the early 2030s followed by passenger flights later that decade. Two technological approaches for the development of single-pilot airliners are being developed either based upon extant technology and operating concepts derived from uninhabited aviation systems and military aircraft, or alternatively based upon high levels of onboard autonomy/automation. This review considers the economic, technological, regulatory (safety) and societal acceptance of the single-pilot airliner, and examines some of the operational challenges that airlines may face. It is suggested that while the technological and safety challenges may be resolved, it is the operational challenges that may determine if the concept is ultimately viable.
... Apart from technical issues, the industry is faced also with a significant lack of pilots, estimated to manifest itself around 2040, when approximately half a million of extra pilots will be needed worldwide to serve the commercial transport needs (Caraway, 2020). However, the high expenses associated with becoming a new pilot in the industry, as well as the comparatively low wages, make it difficult to quickly resolve this issue (Lutte, 2014). ...
The airline industry is moving towards Single Pilot Operations (SPO), as a result of the increased training and salary cost of pilots, and also as a remedy to the impending pilot shortage which is estimated to manifest itself in the years to follow. The main objective of this study was to explore whether the Greek public is willing to accept only one pilot onboard, what are the factors that affect this decision, and which is the preferred method of replacing the second pilot by choosing between an array of alternative options proposed by the industry.
Based on the qualitative findings of previous research, a close-ended scale was developed to explore the attitudes of the public quantitatively (N=414) through exploratory factor analysis and inferential statistics.
Results showed a fairly negative attitude of the public towards SPO (mean score of 3.61 on a differential scale of 1-7). Also, the result of the exploratory factor analysis included three factors, namely, the inherent concerns of the passengers, the degree of passenger’s safety awareness and the reputation of the airline company. Lastly, the participants of this study showed a preference for combining highly-sophisticated technology such as advanced automation with a permanent ground operator as the optimum solution to replacing the second pilot.
It is recommended that an integrated marketing strategy should be implemented at this time, so as to facilitate a smoother transition to SPO. This strategy should take into serious consideration the factors that affect the public’s intention to accept SPO. Finally, despite the overall conservative attitude of the passengers, there was no evidence of an impending failure of this innovation to diffuse into the market.
... This significant forecasted deficit highlights the urgent need for innovative recruitment and retention strategies that can efficiently address the shortfall. Lutte (2014) emphasizes the influence of training costs, the availability of qualified candidates, and the impact of regulatory requirements on the pilot supply, suggesting that addressing these factors could mitigate the looming shortage and ensure operational continuity for the airline industry. ...
The global pilot shortage in the aviation industry is a growing concern, affecting airlines worldwide as they struggle to meet the demand for qualified pilots. This article delves into the causes and implications of the shortage, highlighting its impact on airline operations, travel costs, and safety. It provides a comprehensive overview, including a historical background, current situation analysis, and an exploration of potential future consequences. Case studies are presented to showcase strategies employed by airlines and organizations to combat the problem, such as training local individuals, expanding flight capacities, partnering with flight schools, implementing autonomous aircraft plans, and introducing innovative training programs. The intended audience comprises aviation industry professionals, policymakers, educators, and stakeholders like airline executives, regulators, training organizations, schools, government officials, and researchers. The article aims to deliver valuable insights and influence decision-makers and stakeholders to take proactive measures in addressing the pilot shortage.
... Economic factors are the main drivers for the development of SPO. Airlines would like to save costs, increase operational flexibility, and prepare for an imminent pilot shortage, which could be achieved by a transition to SPO [4,5]. ...
... At the same time, there are signs 3.2 Concept s of Operat ion | 21 of an impending pilot shortage. A study showed that the US airline industry would see a shortage of approximately 35 000 pilots between the years 2013 and 2031 [4]. Boeing forecasts that 804 000 new civil aircraft pilots will be needed around the world over the next 20 years [5]. ...
... For further analyses in the context of flight path control, the variances in the parameters heading, altitude, indicated airspeed, bank angle, and pitch angle were calculated for each participant. 4 As described previously, variance served as a measure of variability in flight path control reflecting the extent of corrections performed by the participants. The results are presented in Table 5 and showed that differences between SPO and TCO were mostly marginal and no clear patterns could be identified. ...
Due to the technological progress, increasingly sophisticated and highly automated systems have replaced human roles in the cockpit of commercial aircraft. Consequently, the crew size has been reduced from initially five to two cockpit crew members over the past decades. Nowadays, a captain and a first officer share the tasks throughout the flight by assuming the roles of pilot flying (PF) and pilot monitoring (PM). However, in light of the ongoing technological advancements, the logical next step seems to be a further de-crewing from two-crew operations (TCO) to single-pilot operations (SPO). To provide adequate support for the single pilot, a redesign of the cockpit is required.
The present study contributes to this research area by adopting a human-centered perspective and investigating how the PF is affected by the absence of the PM during commercial SPO. A study was conducted in a fixed-base Airbus A320 flight simulator. Fourteen professional pilots participated. Their task was to fly short approach and landing scenarios at Frankfurt Airport both with and without a PM. A 2x3 factorial within-subject design was used with the factors crew (TCO and SPO) and scenario (baseline, turbulence, and abnormal). A combination of quantitative and qualitative data was collected in the form of subjective workload ratings, eye-tracking data, simulator parameters, video recordings, and debriefing interviews.
The results showed that workload was not generally higher during SPO but particularly the temporal demand increased significantly. Additionally, checklist usage was less consistent and pilots handled the abnormal scenario differently when the PM was absent. The pilots’ scanning behavior was also significantly affected by the absence of the PM. Pilots had to spend considerably more time scanning secondary instruments at the expense of primary instruments. Moreover, transition behavior between the cockpit instruments and the external view was less efficient in SPO and was interpreted in terms of an overload on the pilots’ visual modality.
This research will help inform the design of commercial SPO flight decks providing adequate support for the single pilot. Several implications for the design of SPO cockpits are discussed, such as headup displays, multisensory interfaces, augmented reality glasses, advanced automation, and additional support from ground operators.
... During this period, there was a reduction in pilot hiring at mainline carriers thus stagnating career progression for those pilots at regional airlines. However, the airline industry has recently recovered, and hiring is expected to exceed 95,000 pilots throughout the United States in the next 20 years (Lutte, 2014). In response to the uptick in pilot demand, regional airlines have implemented new incentives to attract qualified aviation professionals. ...
... Currently, the regional airline industry is suffering from a shortage of pilots. This shortage is expected to grow to a 35,000 pilot shortfall by the end of 2035 (Higgins et al., 2013). This has created a very competitive environment for regional airlines to acquire new pilots. ...
Single-pilot operations (SPOs) in commercial air transport present a range of benefits and challenges, but there is a need to define architectures and compare them in different operational contexts. Here, we identified various combinations of architectural decisions based on the literature, and we compared them to current operations (in different operating contexts) on a safety versus cost tradespace. Safety was defined as a function of the pilot nominal operations workload, handling of off-nominal situations, and pilot incapacitation; whereas the cost was defined as a combination of acquisition and operating costs. Our analysis suggests that different classes of aircraft (wide bodies, narrow bodies, and regional jets) have different levels of benefits and costs in moving to SPOs. The capabilities of automation need to improve drastically before the second human in the flight deck can be replaced, and this is borne out by the dominance of human-centered architectures in the tradespace. The analysis also reveals that regional aircraft may be prime candidates to move to SPOs first because most regional architectures generate positive savings.