Fitting SIR (top left), SEI3RD (bottom right) and SEIR models to data from Italy

Fitting SIR (top left), SEI3RD (bottom right) and SEIR models to data from Italy

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We demonstrate an approach to replicate and forecast the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic using the toolkit of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). Our goal is to study the impact of various modeling assumptions and motivate policy interventions enacted to limit the spread of infectious diseases. Using existing compartmental mode...

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During the second half of 2020, many European governments responded to the resurging transmission of SARS-CoV-2 with wide-ranging non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). These efforts were often highly targeted at the regional level and included fine-grained NPIs. This paper describes a new dataset designed for the accurate recording of NPIs in Eu...