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Figure LCC-6. Initial Conservative Scenario. Estimated costs across time for the baseline Evolvable Lunar Architecture.
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This study’s primary purpose was to assess the feasibility of new approaches for achieving our national goals in space. NexGen assembled a team of former NASA executives and engineers who assessed the economic and technical viability of an “Evolvable Lunar Architecture” (ELA) that leverages commercial capabilities and services that are existing or...
Citations
... An alternative approach results from recent evidence of ice at the lunar poles [6]: propellant could be produced from lunar resources and used either on the lunar surface [2,[7][8][9] or in cis-lunar space [4,[10][11][12][13]. Producing propellant at the location of demand has been shown to enable self-sufficiency [14] and reduce the need for propellant to be pushed through the 15+ km/s of Δ required to reach the lunar surface from Earth. ...
... Miller et al. [12] developed an Evolvable Lunar Architecture that would perform commercial mining of propellant from the lunar poles to be used for NASA missions to Mars. The authors noted that "[a] commercial lunar base providing propellant in lunar orbit might substantially reduce the cost and risk [to] NASA of sending humans to Mars." ...
NASA is preparing to return humans to the lunar surface as a first step to a human exploration campaign of Mars. Both a sustained lunar campaign and a campaign of missions to Mars will require tens to hundreds of tonnes of propellant. Although this propellant could be delivered from Earth, an alternative approach is to use the potentially vast quantities of lunar ice to enable in-situ propellant production on the lunar surface. This study evaluates the cost breakeven for using lunar-derived propellants, as opposed to those delivered from Earth, in support of an extended human exploration campaign with both a multi-year presence on the Moon as well as multiple crewed missions to Mars. In so doing, the value of lunar propellant production is considered in the context of future exploration priorities, addressing the question: over what range of human missions to the lunar surface and Mars does in-situ propellant production trade favorably with propellant delivery from Earth on the basis of cost? The results of this analysis show that the magnitude and duration of the lunar campaign, more so than the Mars campaign, drive the breakeven and that without long lifetime ISRU systems, with greater than 5 years of autonomous operation before replacement, the demand in cis-lunar space for a Mars campaign favors propellant delivery from Earth.
... Having fully deployed cost-effective propellant production facilities and refueling systems would make many goals more accessible, fueling exploration missions as well as entirely new ways of doing business in space. 5 These findings lead to the conclusion that there is already an existing interest in developing a lunar propellant outpost, and that the actual development would considerably extend and influence the forthcoming markets. ...
... AR has conducted research into the wide variety of technologies, both past and present, being deployed and utilized to provide the sustained logistics support for a cross-section of advanced commercial and government sponsored extreme projects within the United States and throughout other regions of the Earth. These areas of research were selected with the intent that they have potential analogous counterparts to future extreme projects to be conducted on the lunar surface or could potentially represent a portion of the lunar architecture itself 37 . By taking this approach, we have gained significant insight into the need for and benefits of a transportation system architecture that is very mission flexible and agile by the nature of the vehicles overall design. ...
Lunar Surface Logistical Capability: A Study of Spacecraft Needed to Support Human Habitation, Scientific Research, and Commercial
Operations on the Lunar Surface
Abstract
In 2018, NASA revealed plans for human space exploration moving forward into the 2020’s. The focus of these evolving plans, for the next decade, will be the launch, assembly and operation of the Lunar Orbital Platform Gateway (LOPG). This new and highly innovative plan is the next logical step in the development of a workable international Earth-Moon transportation system. The Gateway will achieve dual purposes. First, it will open up Cis-Lunar Space for a multitude of robotic and manned missions to the lunar surface in ever increasing frequency, duration, and purpose. Ultimately, the Gateway is the first step leading to a permanent human presence on the lunar surface. Second, it will provide the manned Orion Spacecraft, Space Launch System (SLS) transported payloads and other manned/robotic commercial spacecraft, a support facility from which to conduct both short and long duration science missions deeper into the solar system and ultimately to achieve cis-Mars operations, planetary orbit and manned surface operations at Mars.
In support of the Gateway, and looking beyond the Gateway, NASA has outlined that organization’s initial need for a lander vehicle architecture to initially achieve small (50kg-100kg) payload robotic scientific mission delivery to the lunar surface. These light lander missions would then be followed by manned lunar missions in the late 2020’s. For these missions, NASA has determined that NASA will need a man-rated lander capable of delivering heavier payloads to the lunar surface, and also having a return to orbit capability, with these vehicles being in the 5000kg-6000kg payload class. The initial architecture of lander capabilities are to be acquired through the “Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) Contract” for which an RFP was issued in 2018.
In this paper, Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) is focused on what comes after CLPS. The paper identifies the need for highly reusable, modularly designed spacecraft that are both highly logistically capable and mission flexible. These include vehicles that can ascend to orbit and return to the surface, accomplish extended surface flight operations, have orbital and lunar surface refueling capability, and be easily serviced through their design and their use of component line replaceable units (LRU). The paper describes the family of vehicles that will be needed to support extended or permanent human habitation, extended scientific research, and ultimately small and large commercial operations on the lunar surface. The adaptation and modifications necessary for evolving the lunar vehicle architecture into a Mars surface vehicle architecture, will also be briefly explored.
... For example, the cost of transporting 1 kg of mass to Mars is estimated at 600,000 dollars (Vargic, 2016). A permanent industrial lunar base for four astronauts would cost 40 billion dollars ( ± 30%) and have annual operating costs of 7.35 billion dollars (Miller et al., 2015). The operating expense is calculated with the assumption that all resources brought from Earth are recycled to the maximum extent possible. ...
... Development of resource recovering systems is also important for terrestrial applications, such as decentralized wastewater systems, as well as isolated locations (polar bases, etc.). It will also increase resilience during disasters and will aid in the mitigation of the degradation of the environment by reducing the consumption of resources (Miller et al., 2015). ...
Extraterrestrial colonization is a certain eventuality that would be nearly impossible without the efficient and robust resources of recovering life support systems. Knowledge of inputs is necessary for the development of such systems, especially for the first stages of design such as mass balancing and the selection of unitary processes. One of the most important inputs is blackwater, as this stream is the most polluted and rich in resources and needs to be treated and reused. In the paper, data from space missions and terrestrial sources concerning the flows, concentrations and loads in urine and feces are compared and analyzed. It is shown that results obtained during space missions are scarce and for many parameters no information is available. It is also shown how gravity influences the elemental composition of urine and feces. In contrast, data from terrestrial sources are abundant. The presented analysis shows that data from space and terrestrial systems are convergent for many parameters and that the available terrestrial data for those parameters can be used for mass balancing and unitary process selection without a high risk.
... Miller et al. developed an Evolvable Lunar Architecture that would perform commercial mining of propellant from the lunar poles to be used for NASA missions to Mars [8]. The authors noted that "[a] commercial lunar base providing propellant in lunar orbit might substantially reduce the cost and risk [to] NASA of sending humans to Mars." ...
... • Earth orbital launch infrastructure (crew and cargo) • Orbital gateway stations (at least one in high Earth orbit) • Lunar landers and landing pads (crew and cargo) • Lunar habitation modules • In situ resource utilization facilities • Scientific laboratories and other facilities • Planetary defense systems (beginning with soft version against micrometeorites) • Support systems: communications (including any satellite relays), life support, power production, surface transportation, and surface construction Developing and maintaining all these infrastructure elements presents a challenge in cost and political commitment. Even if an international agreement for collaboration were reached, developing all the elements would take a relatively long time (at least a decade for initial in situ production, according to the estimates of the Evolvable Lunar Architecture (Miller et al. 2015)), during which the political commitment of the partners to the program would be tested against potential cost and schedule overruns. The costs, even if spread out among several partners, would potentially reach tens of billions of dollars per year for the complete infrastructure. ...
... The wealth provided by commercial entities would justify maintaining a defense and science outpost, and would provide more direct benefits to the economy in the form of taxes and highly qualified jobs, which are easier to justify politically than a purely public space endeavor. Finally, a self-sustained space and lunar commercial infrastructure would enable other applications to appear, such as asteroid mining and on-orbit manufacturing, and could provide support for missions to Mars as plenty of others argue (Utrilla 2017a, b;Miller et al. 2015;. ...
... On the other hand, recent experience presents a potential model to reach economic feasibility through PPPs. This model was elaborated for the case of a lunar base in several proposals (Miller et al. 2015;, showing its applicability to the lunar case. The conclusion is that commerce is an indispensable element in the development of MMB, acting as an enabler for the other activities: defense and science. ...
This concluding chapter shows practically that planetary defense is not about securing the mere absence of threat. Deflecting asteroids does not necessarily require its own dedicated technology. Quite the contrary, planetary defense can and should be approached as a civilian and scientific endeavor with historical importance. This will be challenging, but if we can build a laser capable of sending nanoprobes to the nearest stars at 20% light speed and use the same installation for possible asteroid deflection, then we should not need to rely on militarily oriented planetary defense by a leading nation. In this chapter, we discuss the associated challenges and required technologies, and also that our community of fate can become a security community—a community in which we do not perceive one another as enemies but as allies. We explain the science of Moon survival and structures for the multipurpose lunar base, as well as the main issues of building a super powerful laser on the Moon. The same installation can be built on Earth if we can reach a breakthrough in global governance. The chapter ends by discussing the notion that planetary defense is not national defense.
... • Earth orbital launch infrastructure (crew and cargo) • Orbital gateway stations (at least one in high Earth orbit) • Lunar landers and landing pads (crew and cargo) • Lunar habitation modules • In situ resource utilization facilities • Scientific laboratories and other facilities • Planetary defense systems (beginning with soft version against micrometeorites) • Support systems: communications (including any satellite relays), life support, power production, surface transportation, and surface construction Developing and maintaining all these infrastructure elements presents a challenge in cost and political commitment. Even if an international agreement for collaboration were reached, developing all the elements would take a relatively long time (at least a decade for initial in situ production, according to the estimates of the Evolvable Lunar Architecture (Miller et al. 2015)), during which the political commitment of the partners to the program would be tested against potential cost and schedule overruns. The costs, even if spread out among several partners, would potentially reach tens of billions of dollars per year for the complete infrastructure. ...
... The wealth provided by commercial entities would justify maintaining a defense and science outpost, and would provide more direct benefits to the economy in the form of taxes and highly qualified jobs, which are easier to justify politically than a purely public space endeavor. Finally, a self-sustained space and lunar commercial infrastructure would enable other applications to appear, such as asteroid mining and on-orbit manufacturing, and could provide support for missions to Mars as plenty of others argue (Utrilla 2017a, b;Miller et al. 2015;. ...
... On the other hand, recent experience presents a potential model to reach economic feasibility through PPPs. This model was elaborated for the case of a lunar base in several proposals (Miller et al. 2015;, showing its applicability to the lunar case. The conclusion is that commerce is an indispensable element in the development of MMB, acting as an enabler for the other activities: defense and science. ...
This introductory chapter aims to attune the reader to the topic of planetary defense through the lens of political science. The entire volume proposes an ambitious approach, a multipurpose lunar base, but the key condition for humankind’s peaceful expansion into space is based on cosmopolitan global governance, which we argue will not emerge easily. This chapter considers several political science problems in relation to cosmopolitan thinking, from development aid criticism to perceptions of influence by individuals in global politics and the claim that the anarchy we allegedly live in is caused by states themselves. As the authors progress through discussions of political science and theoretical concepts, several questions arise as to how we can discern moral from immoral behavior in political science theory. Finally, as our requirements are constantly changing, cosmopolitan thinking shows that humanity faces three sets of problems: sharing the planet, sustaining life and developing a rulebook. This chapter lays the foundation for further theoretical argumentation throughout the whole volume, which considers these three sets of problems using a multidisciplinary lens.
... • Earth orbital launch infrastructure (crew and cargo) • Orbital gateway stations (at least one in high Earth orbit) • Lunar landers and landing pads (crew and cargo) • Lunar habitation modules • In situ resource utilization facilities • Scientific laboratories and other facilities • Planetary defense systems (beginning with soft version against micrometeorites) • Support systems: communications (including any satellite relays), life support, power production, surface transportation, and surface construction Developing and maintaining all these infrastructure elements presents a challenge in cost and political commitment. Even if an international agreement for collaboration were reached, developing all the elements would take a relatively long time (at least a decade for initial in situ production, according to the estimates of the Evolvable Lunar Architecture (Miller et al. 2015)), during which the political commitment of the partners to the program would be tested against potential cost and schedule overruns. The costs, even if spread out among several partners, would potentially reach tens of billions of dollars per year for the complete infrastructure. ...
... The wealth provided by commercial entities would justify maintaining a defense and science outpost, and would provide more direct benefits to the economy in the form of taxes and highly qualified jobs, which are easier to justify politically than a purely public space endeavor. Finally, a self-sustained space and lunar commercial infrastructure would enable other applications to appear, such as asteroid mining and on-orbit manufacturing, and could provide support for missions to Mars as plenty of others argue (Utrilla 2017a, b;Miller et al. 2015;. ...
... On the other hand, recent experience presents a potential model to reach economic feasibility through PPPs. This model was elaborated for the case of a lunar base in several proposals (Miller et al. 2015;, showing its applicability to the lunar case. The conclusion is that commerce is an indispensable element in the development of MMB, acting as an enabler for the other activities: defense and science. ...
The unique character of planetary defense requires an adequate governance model. There is no reason to believe that the current mode of global governance based on geography, not function, is applicable to address spatially unbounded issues. To bridge the lacking effectivity and accountability of the global system dominated by nation-states, we look to cosmopolitan and critical security theory. Following the dissemination and analysis of deficiencies of international organization and contemporary global governance, we move to describe a three-layer Planetary Council as a structure for managing planetary defense. Our proposed structure aims to start the debate on how we organize collective efforts to ensure not simply human survival but rather all-human flourishing. The application of cosmopolitan theory aims to positively change our collective behavior as a species and develop a new norm to Defend Earth that is useful for other areas of human activity.
... • Earth orbital launch infrastructure (crew and cargo) • Orbital gateway stations (at least one in high Earth orbit) • Lunar landers and landing pads (crew and cargo) • Lunar habitation modules • In situ resource utilization facilities • Scientific laboratories and other facilities • Planetary defense systems (beginning with soft version against micrometeorites) • Support systems: communications (including any satellite relays), life support, power production, surface transportation, and surface construction Developing and maintaining all these infrastructure elements presents a challenge in cost and political commitment. Even if an international agreement for collaboration were reached, developing all the elements would take a relatively long time (at least a decade for initial in situ production, according to the estimates of the Evolvable Lunar Architecture (Miller et al. 2015)), during which the political commitment of the partners to the program would be tested against potential cost and schedule overruns. The costs, even if spread out among several partners, would potentially reach tens of billions of dollars per year for the complete infrastructure. ...
... The wealth provided by commercial entities would justify maintaining a defense and science outpost, and would provide more direct benefits to the economy in the form of taxes and highly qualified jobs, which are easier to justify politically than a purely public space endeavor. Finally, a self-sustained space and lunar commercial infrastructure would enable other applications to appear, such as asteroid mining and on-orbit manufacturing, and could provide support for missions to Mars as plenty of others argue (Utrilla 2017a, b;Miller et al. 2015;. ...
... On the other hand, recent experience presents a potential model to reach economic feasibility through PPPs. This model was elaborated for the case of a lunar base in several proposals (Miller et al. 2015;, showing its applicability to the lunar case. The conclusion is that commerce is an indispensable element in the development of MMB, acting as an enabler for the other activities: defense and science. ...
The chapter opens with an introduction to the general legal regime in outer space. We are focusing on topics that are accentuated throughout the book, to discuss under what conditions various ideas would be realizable or what unintended consequences various decisions would cause. The intention of the chapter is not to complete a thorough international law analysis of planetary defense, or even to propose a legal regime, but rather to discuss topics found in the book using an international law perspective. We also show that making things happen is not necessarily based on engineering virtue, and that some legal obstacles remain in the way. Adopting a nuclear explosion method and treating it as the most effective can be true from an engineering point of view, but building lasers on the far side of the Moon could be much easier to achieve if we perceive the problem from the international law perspective.
... Finally, the fast-maturing private space industry will play a prominent role in such missions, bringing new insight and providing innovative solutions, technologies, and a youthful and agile workforce to accomplish such a complex mission in a speedy manner 30 ...
In the effort to establish a settlement on Mars, Phobos, a moon of Mars, has been proposed as a way point to set up an exploration base as well as a teleoperations platform to explore and select promising locations, and eventually establish a settlement on the surface of Mars. However, the cost to establish a base on Phobos may be similar in time and resources to directly establishing a settlement on Mars. To attain clarity on which method may achieve the most desired result extensive real time telerobotic activities are proposed to be conducted from a self-sufficient Interplanetary Teleoperations Vehicle (IPTV) orbiting in Mars vicinity while performing additional science on Phobos with the aid of landers.
This paper will present the general components of the IPTV capable of transporting and sustaining six crew members to, at, and from Mars vicinity with considerations for assembly and construction in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO). Trajectories, propulsion, data and communication systems, consumables, timelines, and interactions with Phobos and Mars are discussed. The IPTV concept architecture may be realized much quicker than current NASA plans that include Phobos in the critical path, aided by a rapidly evolving private space sector.
