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![Favourability maps of European badger presence in Portugal estimated for 2040, by applying the best BRT model to different land-use change scenarios, all showing a suitability decrease of the southern edge and an increase in the northeast [Libertarian Europe-A1_2040; Eurosceptic Europe-A2_2040; Social Democracy Europe-B1_2040; European Localism-B2_2040; see 38 for scenario details] and scenario A1B from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES 17 ).](publication/331400106/figure/fig4/AS:731247512911875@1551354401976/Favourability-maps-of-European-badger-presence-in-Portugal-estimated-for-2040-by.jpg)
Favourability maps of European badger presence in Portugal estimated for 2040, by applying the best BRT model to different land-use change scenarios, all showing a suitability decrease of the southern edge and an increase in the northeast [Libertarian Europe-A1_2040; Eurosceptic Europe-A2_2040; Social Democracy Europe-B1_2040; European Localism-B2_2040; see 38 for scenario details] and scenario A1B from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES 17 ).
Source publication
Human-Induced Rapid Environmental Change (HIREC), particularly climate change and habitat conversion, affects species distributions worldwide. Here, we aimed to (i) assess the factors that determine range patterns of European badger (Meles meles) at the southwestern edge of their distribution and (ii) forecast the possible impacts of future climate...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... produced favourability maps of badger presence in Portugal for 2040 based on four land-use change sce- narios described by Stürck and colleagues 38 and an IPCC climate prediction (Scenario A1B 17 ) (Fig. 4). All sce- narios presented a similar output. By 2040, badger landscape favourability seems to increase in the country's eastern and northeastern regions, but decreases in the North-west. Furthermore, the southern edge of the species range seems to decrease in adequacy for badgers, with a decrease of 50% in the number of cells with ...
Context 2
... χ 2 = 1.392, p = 0.707) from the current situation (22.73% of the country showing a favourability >0.5) to favoura- bility percentages of 24.71% (A1_2040), 25.17% (A2_2040), 25.86% (B1_2040) and 26.19% (B2_2040). Thus, the increase in favourability in northwestern areas compensates for the overall decrease in southern regions (Fig. 4 www.nature.com/scientificreports ...
Context 3
... together with the predicted changes in landscape composition 38 , will decrease the favourability of areas of southern Portugal for badgers, potentially leading to a range retraction northwards. This retraction will likely be matched by an increase in favourability for northeastern Portugal, where badgers will find better conditions to survive (Fig. 4). Although we forecast a contraction of the badger's southern range limit in Portugal, we estimate no overall difference in the percentage of areas in the country with higher favourability. Thus, loss of favourable areas in the south will be compensated for by more beneficial environmental conditions in the ...
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Citations
... The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) is among the most prevalent medium-sized carnivores throughout Europe [6], where it mainly inhabits woodlands [7,8]. Despite their typically shy and elusive behavior towards humans, badgers, along with other wildlife, are regularly found near human settlements, influenced by factors such as habitat loss and food availability [7,9]. To date, limited information is available on the prevalence of VBPs in badgers, particularly in populations beyond the UK [10]. ...
Background
Vector-borne pathogens (VBPs) are increasing in significance in veterinary medicine and public health settings, with wildlife playing a potentially crucial role in their transmission. Eurasian badgers (Meles meles) are widely distributed across Europe. However, information currently available on the prevalence of VBPs in badgers is limited. The objective of the current study was to investigate the occurrence of Anaplasmataceae, Bartonella spp., Mycoplasma spp., Rickettsia spp., Piroplasmida, Trypanosomatida and Filarioidea in badgers and subsequently, based on the results, assess the potential risk to domestic animals, other wildlife and humans.
Methods
Between 2017 and 2021, blood or spleen samples from 220 badgers were collected in nine continental European countries: Austria (n = 7), Bosnia and Herzegovina (n = 2), Croatia (n = 22), France (n = 44), Germany (n = 16), Hungary (n = 7), Italy (n = 16), Romania (n = 80) and Serbia (n = 26). VBPs were identified by performing PCR analysis on the samples, followed by Sanger sequencing. Additionally, to distinguish between different Babesia lineages we performed restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis on piroplasm-positive samples, using HinfI as restriction enzyme. A phylogenetic analysis was performed on Mycoplasma spp.
Results
The pathogens identified were Babesia sp. badger type A (54%), B (23%), and C (37%); Trypanosoma pestanai (56%); Mycoplasma sp. (34%); Candidatus Mycoplasma haematomelis (8%); Candidatus Mycoplasma haematominutum (0.5%); and Ehrlichia spp. (2%). Rickettsia spp., Bartonella spp. and filarioid nematodes were not detected among the tested samples.
Conclusions
The large sample size and diverse study populations in this study provide valuable insights into the distribution and epidemiology of the analyzed pathogens. Some of the VBPs identified in our study show high similarity to those found in domestic animals, such as dogs. This finding suggests that badgers, as potential reservoirs for these pathogens, may pose a threat not only to other wildlife but also to domestic animals in close vicinity. Continuous surveillance is essential to monitor VBPs in wildlife as a means to enable the assessment of their impact on other wildlife species, domestic animals and human health.
Graphical Abstract
... The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) is among the most prevalent medium-sized carnivores throughout Europe [6], where it mainly inhabits woodlands [7,8]. Despite their typically shy and elusive behavior towards humans, badgers, along with other wildlife, are regularly found near human settlements, influenced by factors such as habitat loss and food availability [7,9]. To date, limited information is available on the prevalence of VBPs in badgers, particularly in populations beyond the UK [10]. ...
Toxocara vitulorum (Nematoda: Ascaridida) is a common parasite of cattle and buffaloes in tropical and subtropical regions and the causative agent of toxocarosis in calves. In Europe, sporadic infections have been reported in cattle, but also in bovines held at zoological gardens. Here, we report T. vitulorum infections in a herd of American bison (Bison bison) kept at the Vienna Zoo, Austria, which occurred in 2023 and 2024. After the first case in a seven-week-old calf in July 2023, another case in a five-week-old calf was diagnosed in May 2024, both of them detected by coproscopy and fecal discharge of adult worms after anthelminthic treatment. The calves originated from two different mothers imported to the zoo in 2014 from the Czech Republic and 2012 from Germany respectively. Both calves showed diarrhea and fecal soiling of the anal region prior to fecal analysis. Two intramuscular administrations of ivermectin (0.2 mg/kg bodyweight, two-week interval) caused the passing of up to 39 cm long gravid female worms, resulted in the cessation of egg shedding and improved fecal consistency. Morphological and molecular identification confirmed infections with T. vitulorum. Additionally, another calf, born in May 2024 from the mother of the calf that was T. vitulorum-positive in 2023, showed periods of diarrhea. Due to difficulties in taking individual samples, no definitive diagnosis of T. vitulorum infection could be made, however, the animal was also treated and clinically improved afterwards. Besides T. vitulorum, Eimeria spp. were detected in all samples and Giardia duodenalis genotype E in two samples in 2024. This case series highlights the possibility of unnoticed parasite introductions into zoological gardens via animals infected with resting parasite stages, and demonstrates the importance of regular individual parasitological analysis in bovine zoo animals during the first weeks after birth.
... A myriad of other factors related to prey availability, distribution, climate, and land use contribute, isolated or in synergy, determine mesocarnivores' distribution in Portugal (Hipólito et al. 2018;Rosalino et al. 2019;Alexandre et al. 2020). Our data indicate that prey-related drivers can facilitate species presence in Portugal; concretely lagomorph presence, promote all five mesocarnivores' presence. ...
Context
The expansion of exotic plantations can impose conservation challenges on wildlife, and the Iberian Peninsula has one of the widest planted areas of exotic Eucalyptus sp. in Europe. Since mesocarnivores are pivotal elements of ecosystems’ functioning and Eucalyptus have been modifying the Portuguese landscape context in the last half century, it is crucial to understand how these systems may affect carnivores’ range.
Objectives
We aim to identify the drivers of five mesocarnivores’ distribution in Portugal (e.g., land-cover, ecogeographic predictors, mammal prey availability) and understand the influence of Eucalyptus plantations in their distribution range.
Methods
Using generalized linear models, we modelled the distribution range of mesocarnivores. The initial dataset was randomly split for model training and validation, and the multicollinearity between the predictors was tested. Then, we examined the potential relationship between the Eucalyptus plantations area and the predicted probability presence of each species.
Results
We detected species-specific patterns explained by different drivers, including climatic, land cover and mammal prey related ones. Furthermore, in areas of Eucalyptus plantations, the probability of occurrence of most Portuguese mesocarnivores is lower: red fox,stone marten,European badger, and Egyptian mongoose.
Conclusions
Managers must take action to adapt their management to promote native forest patches within plantation, and allow the development of some understory within stands, to improve this plantation’s permeability to mesocarnivores. This will increase the spatial heterogeneity and enhance resource availability, reducing the constraints that plantations might have on the range of mesocarnivores in Portugal.
... As roads are more prominent in lowland areas, particularly in the south-east of Northern Ireland and around Lough Neagh, associated with higher human population density. Badgers are also documented to prefer herbaceous fields and shrub lands, on podzol soils interspersed with rocky outcrops and an absence of cattle, as opposed to more intensively managed and desolate landscapes 65 . Furthermore, in Northern Ireland, badgers have higher population densities in semi-natural broadleaved forest and parkland habitats 36 . ...
Isotopic techniques have been used to study phenomena in the geological, environmental, and ecological sciences. For example, isotopic values of multiple elements elucidate the pathways energy and nutrients take in the environment. Isoscapes interpolate isotopic values across a geographical surface and are used to study environmental processes in space and time. Thus, isoscapes can reveal ecological shifts at local scales, and show distribution thresholds in the wider environment at the macro-scale. This study demonstrates a further application of isoscapes, using soil isoscapes of ¹³C/¹²C and ¹⁵N/¹⁴N as an environmental baseline, to understand variation in trophic ecology across a population of Eurasian badgers (Meles meles) at a regional scale. The use of soil isoscapes reduced error, and elevated the statistical signal, where aggregated badger hairs were used, and where individuals were identified using genetic microarray analysis. Stable isotope values were affected by land-use type, elevation, and meteorology. Badgers in lowland habitats had diets richer in protein and were adversely affected by poor weather conditions in all land classes. It is concluded that soil isoscapes are an effective way of reducing confounding biases in macroscale, isotopic studies. The method elucidated variation in the trophic and spatial ecology of economically important taxa at a landscape level. These results have implications for the management of badgers and other carnivores with omnivorous tendencies in heterogeneous landscapes.
... However, estimations of badger density are limited to very few regions in Iberia -Doñana National Park (S) and Park of Collserola (NE), in Spain, and Serra de Grândola in Portugal [10][11][12] -not representing the full range of environmental conditions badgers explore in Iberia. Thus, more data are needed to allow a better understanding of how Iberian populations respond to and are influenced by the Iberian landscape context, because this region is expected to suffer drastic environmental changes in the next future due to climate warming [14,15]. ...
Carnivores social organization varies widely, from strongly social to solitary predators. European badgers are facultative social carnivores that also shows a geographical variation in social structure. These patterns derive mainly from central/west European regions, with an under-representation of Mediterranean populations that face different conservation challenges, especially regarding group composition, sett use patterns and breeding phenology. We addressed these traits topics for a population inhabiting a Portuguese agro-silvo-pastoral system. Based on monthly monitoring of 34 setts and continuous camera-trapping surveys of 12, we showed that setts surrounded by diversified vegetation and located in sandy sites are more used, a pattern probably linked to food availability and ease of sett excavation and maintenance, respectively. Badgers followed a general pattern regarding group size (2–4 adults), but showed an intermediate population density (0.49–0.73 badgers/km2), with values higher than those estimated for other Mediterranean environments, but lower than for central-western populations. This, together with the breeding (November/January) and cub emergence (1.8 cubs/sett; March/April) periods, indicates an ecological adaptation to the landscape context, where human-related resources and mild environmental conditions allow badger to reach higher densities than in many southern populations, and to reproduce earlier than their northern counterparts.
... The FF reflects the degree (between 0 and 1) to which the local probability values differ from that expected according to the species' prevalence, where F = 0.5 corresponds to a local probability value equal to the species prevalence in the Iberian Peninsula. The FF has been applied in biogeographical studies for different taxa and regions (for example, [47][48][49][50][51]). Logistic regression is a supervised machine learning algorithm that related the species' presence/absence on 10 × 10 cells of the Iberian Peninsula with the predictor variables (Table S1). ...
Metapopulation theory considers that the populations of many species are fragmented into patches connected by the migration of individuals through an interterritorial matrix. We applied fuzzy set theory and environmental favorability (F) functions to reveal the metapopulational structure of the 222 butterfly species in the Iberian Peninsula. We used the sets of contiguous grid cells with high favorability (F ≥ 0.8), to identify the favorable patches for each species. We superimposed the known occurrence data to reveal the occupied and empty favorable patches, as unoccupied patches are functional in a metapopulation dynamics analysis. We analyzed the connectivity between patches of each metapopulation by focusing on the territory of intermediate and low favorability for the species (F < 0.8). The friction that each cell opposes to the passage of individuals was computed as 1-F. We used the r.cost function of QGIS to calculate the cost of reaching each cell from a favorable patch. The inverse of the cost was computed as connectivity. Only 126 species can be considered to have a metapopulation structure. These metapopulation structures are part of the dark biodiversity of butterflies because their identification is not evident from the observation of the occurrence data but was revealed using favorability functions.
... The FF reflects the degree (between 0 and 1) to which the local probability values differ from that expected according to the species' prevalence, where F = 0.5 corresponds to a local probability value equal to the species prevalence in the Iberian Peninsula. The FF has been applied in biogeographical studies for different taxa and regions (for example, [47][48][49][50][51]). Logistic regression is a supervised machine learning algorithm that related the species' presence/absence on 10 × 10 cells of the Iberian Peninsula with the predictor variables (Table S1). ...
Metapopulation theory considers that the populations of many species are fragmented into patches connected by the migration of individuals through an interterritorial matrix. We ap‐ plied fuzzy set theory and environmental favorability (F) functions to reveal the metapopulational structure of the 222 butterfly species in the Iberian Peninsula. We used the sets of contiguous grid cells with high favorability (F ≥ 0.8), to identify the favorable patches for each species. We super‐ imposed the known occurrence data to reveal the occupied and empty favorable patches, as un‐ occupied patches are functional in a metapopulation dynamics analysis. We analyzed the connec‐ tivity between patches of each metapopulation by focusing on the territory of intermediate and low favorability for the species (F < 0.8). The friction that each cell opposes to the passage of individuals was computed as 1‐F. We used the r.cost function of QGIS to calculate the cost of reaching each cell from a favorable patch. The inverse of the cost was computed as connectivity. Only 126 species can be considered to have a metapopulation structure. These metapopulation structures are part of the dark biodiversity of butterflies because their identification is not evident from the observation of the occurrence data but was revealed using favorability functions.
... Foxes also look for food in agricultural areas, where the availability of rodents is much higher. The European badger is mainly tied to the occurrence of forests and woodlots (Rosalino et al. 2019;Kauhala and Holmala 2011). The burrows are mostly found in forests (Santos and Beier 2008;Revilla et al. 2000), except for pine monocultures (Kurek 2011). ...
The methods used to assess the significance of land cover in the vicinity of a road for the mortality of mesopredators are diverse. In assessing the effect of land cover along the road on road causalities, scientists use various buffer sizes, or even no buffer along the road. The aim of this study was to verify how results of land cover effects on the mortality of mesopredators on roads may differ when analyzing various buffer sizes from the road. We assessed road causalities in the Warmian-Masurian voivodeship (Poland) from 3 consecutive years: 2015, 2016, and 2017. The roads were divided into equal sections of 2000 m each with buffer size of radius: 10, 250, 500, and 1000 m. We analyzed the number of road kills of red fox and European badger separately in a generalized linear model, whereas explanatory variables we used land cover types (based on the Corine Land Cover inventory) and traffic volume. Mean annual mortality from road collisions amounts to 2.36% of the red fox population and 3.82% of the European badger population. We found that the buffer size determines the results of the impact of land cover on mesocarnivore mortality on roads. The red fox differed from the European badger in response to land cover depending on the buffer size. The differences we have shown relate in particular to built-up areas. Our results indicate a 500-m buffer as best reflecting the land cover effects in road kills of both species. This was confirmed by model evaluation and a tendency to use or avoid the vicinity of human settlements of the analyzed species. We concluded that buffer size will probably affect mostly the significance of cover types that are spatially correlated with roads, positively or negatively. We suggest that the home range size of given species in local conditions should be assessed before determining the size of the buffer for analysis.
... Most animal samples were also found in the South and East of Northern Ireland, which is likely due to the high density of roads in this region which is a direct predictor of traffic accident mortality in badgers (Fabrizio et al., 2019). This region is also synonymous with many of the landscape features strongly associated with high badger population densities, mainly moderate annual temperatures and the occurrence of herbaceous fields and shrublands (Rosalino et al., 2019). Population densities and territoriality are also highly predictable and constant across local populations (Potts et al., 2019). ...
Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) in Badgers (Meles meles), otherwise known as heavy metals, are unique amongst environmental pollutants occurring, both naturally and anthropogenically. PTEs have a broad range of negative health and environmental effects, therefore identifying their sources and pathways through the environment is imperative for public health policy. This is difficult in terrestrial systems due to the compositional nature of soil geochemistry. In this study, a compositional statistical approach was used to identify how PTEs accumulate in a terrestrial carnivorous mammal, Eurasian Badgers (Meles meles). Compositional principal component analysis (PCA) was used on geochemical data from the Tellus survey, the soil baseline and badger tissue data to map geo-spatial patterns of PTEs and show accumulative trends measured in time. Mapping PCs identified distinct regions of PTE presence in soil and PTE accumulation in badger tissues in Northern Ireland. PTEs were most elevated in liver, kidney and then muscle tissues. Liver and kidney showed the most distinct geo-spatial patterns of accumulation and muscle was the most depleted. PC1 and 2 for each type were modelled using generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) to identify trends through time. PC1 for the liver and muscle were associated with rainfall and ∂N15 in the liver, showing a link to diet and a bioaccumulation pathway, whilst PC2 for both tissues was associated with mean temperature, showing a link to seasonal activity and a bioaccessibility pathway. However, in kidney tissue these trends are reversed and PC1 was associated with bioaccessibility and PC2 with bioaccumulation. Combined these techniques can elucidate both geo-spatial trends in PTEs and the mechanisms by which they move in environment and in future may be an effective tool for assessing PTE bioavailability in environmental health surveys.
... To infer the responses of species to climate change, several community metrics such as changes in distribution area and optimum colonization position of populations have been proposed (Lenoir & Svenning, 2015). Furthermore, changes in the distribution sizes of species in the cool (i.e., leading edge) and warm edges (i.e., trailing edge) have been reported recently (Chen et al., 2011;Parmesan et al., 1999;Rosalino et al., 2019). Although there are various directions of species shift, such as poleward, equatorward, westward, eastward, upward (or uphill) and downward (or downhill), in response to progressive climate change (Devictor et al., 2012;Domisch et al., 2013;Palmer et al., 2015;VanDerWal et al., 2013), here, we focused on the most significant direction, that is north-south direction, which has a clear thermal gradient as species distribution strongly depends on thermal conditions. ...
Aim
A progressive increase in air temperature is recognized as the most important mechanistic driver of species range shifts. However, only a few studies have simultaneously considered the influence of both extrinsic and intrinsic mechanistic drivers; there are still no studies on the roles of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers that regulate such species changes. We investigated how species will shift their geographical ranges to cope with future climate change and analysed the relative importance of the mechanistic drivers in governing species range shifts.
Location
Sixteen countries in South, West and North Europe.
Methods
We used ensemble species distribution models on the European continental scale to predict 105 odonate species in response to climate change in the future decades until 2080s under three emission scenarios. We evaluated the projected changes in four community metrics (distribution area, optimum position, leading edge and trailing edge) and investigated how these changes are driven by extrinsic and intrinsic factors.
Results
The odonate species were predicted to shift their range margins poleward, with a higher migration rate towards the trailing edge (2.38‒10.34 km/year) than the leading edge (1.13‒2.00 km/year). Contrary to the assumption that the response of the odonate species to climate change will linearly accelerate over time, the distribution areas of odonate species were predicted to increase until 2050s and then decline until 2080s under RCP 2.6 (representative concentration pathway). However, their distributions under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were predicted to decrease over time, with a higher rate under RCP 8.5. Overall, environmental preference and habitat override dispersal ability govern the range shift of odonate species.
Main conclusions
Quantifying the relative importance of extrinsic and intrinsic factors across a large spatial scale under different emission scenarios can help understand the mechanistic processes to facilitate species range shifts.
