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The vulnerability of coastal communities to climate change risks is an important development issue for Africa's low-lying coastal zones. Frequent floods resulting from climate change, sea-level rise and other human-induced environmental stressors have become a major concern in the coastal zone of Nigeria. This article draws upon conceptual issues i...
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... or meso-scale anthropogenic stresses in Nigeria's coastal zone resulting in environmental changes, described previously, have further contributed to the increase in fre- quency and severity of flood events in coastal communities. In addition, local subsidence, sand mining, coastal develop- ment and deforestation have been indicated as contributing to flooding (Figure 3). ...
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... Further research is required to improve AHR-FLOOD, such as providing specific convenience characteristics for individual transportation modes and classifying different destination types. For example, some cases can feature daily access to riverfront farms (Holstead et al., 2017) and coastal fishing grounds (Adelekan & Fregene, 2015), whereas others can ensure accessibility to natural landscapes without transportation facilities. ...
Integrated flood risk management based on urban policies remains challenging compared with infrastructure due to the unclear risk‐reduction effects over time. To consider heterogeneity in social responses to urban planning measures, a previous study developed an agent‐based household relocation model under flood risk (AHR‐FLOOD) by combining flood‐inundation and agent‐based relocation models. However, accurate modelling of relocation incentives remains challenging. This study aimed to improve AHR‐FLOOD by introducing spatial amenities based on transportation convenience and reflecting their impact on the decision‐making processes of agents to analyze the development of different flood risk areas. AHR‐FLOOD considering access to public transportation reproduced the spatial characteristics of the actual population and housing prices. The development of low‐risk areas reduced flood exposure and resulting flood damage. However, this effect was less clear for low‐income individuals, but the development of low‐amenity areas had the potential to induce low‐income population to move to safe areas. Chain migration was observed as a long‐term effect of the spatial amenity policy. This study presents insights into the effect of transportation policies on flood safety for long‐term spatial distance management in an agent‐based approach with the rigorous modelling and validation of local amenity impact on household relocation choices.
... Makoko and Ilaje, coastal towns in Lagos, Nigeria, are severely affected by marine debris and plastic pollution as a result of poor waste management, urban runoff, and neighborhood-based businesses including fishing and unofficial trading. Makoko dubbed the "Venice of Africa," is plagued with home garbage dumped straight into the lagoon and plastic debris that finds its way into the waterways from the heavily populated city (Adelekan & Fregene, 2015). Similarly, the absence of official trash collection infrastructure and ...
... Ebelechukwu & Asekun, 2024 OJER 5(1) | 4 5 ` pollution from adjacent industrial activity affect Ilaje (Adelekan & Fregene, 2015). Significant environmental and health issues plague both areas, such as the destruction of marine ecosystems, the threat to marine life, and negative effects on the local economy and public health (Gall & Thompson, 2015). ...
Plastics, synthetic organic polymers derived from oil or gas, have become ubiquitous due to their versatility. However, their excessive use has led to a significant global issue: marine litter. This pollution poses severe threats to marine life and coastal environments, creating a critical environmental challenge with widespread effects on ecosystems, human health, and economies. Coastal cities like Lagos, Nigeria, are particularly affected due to rapid population growth, urbanization, and inadequate waste management. In Lagos, the communities of Makoko and Ilaje were studied for their plastic pollution levels. These areas face high plastic waste accumulation, exacerbated by insufficient waste management infrastructure and urban runoff. The study involved both physical sampling of plastics and surveys to understand local plastic usage, disposal practices, and awareness of pollution impacts. In Makoko, the majority of plastic waste consists of polyamide (nylon) at 48%, followed by plastic bottles at 36%. A significant portion of respondents (52%) admitted to improper plastic waste disposal, reflecting serious deficiencies in waste management practices and low awareness of environmental impacts. Conversely, Ilaje primarily deals with polyethylene terephthalate (PET), making up 62% of the waste, largely due to the high consumption of bottled products. Both communities demonstrate a pressing need for improved waste management systems and better public education on plastic pollution. The study advocates for enhanced infrastructure, effective recycling programs, and public awareness campaigns. It also recommends implementing the "Polluter Pays Principle" to encourage responsible plastic disposal and recycling, which is crucial for mitigating environmental and health impacts, promoting sustainable urban development, and reducing plastic pollution in coastal regions.
... The research in ecologically vulnerable areas effectively identifies water stress hotspots and ecologically sensitive zones, offering a reliable scientific basis for preserving ecosystems and ensuring sustainable resource utilization. However, comprehensive studies in these regions must account for critical factors such as local socioeconomic development, ecological conservation, and population stability (Adelekan and Fregene, 2015;Wang et al., 2022d). These factors are intricately related and create conflicts that necessitate the acceptance and implementation of research results. ...
... Consequently, the theoretical framework of system dynamics offers valuable insights for the concrete expression and threshold evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in regions like Oran, Algeria (Magri and Berezowska-Azzag, 2019). It also contributes to the assessment of the relationship between resource environment and livelihood vulnerability in Nigeria (Adelekan and Fregene, 2015), and the examination of the connections between climate change, water resources utilization, and agricultural production systems in Iran (Hashemi et al., 2017). Overall, this research enriches the cross-disciplinary research content at the intersection of system science and sustainability science. ...
A R T I C L E I N F O Keywords: Water resource environment carrying capacity (WRECC) Threshold Leverage point Gray system model System dynamics (SD) Ecological migrant resettlement area A B S T R A C T Identifying the threshold and leverage point of water resource environment carrying capacity (WRECC) is crucial for effectively adjusting the industrial structure, population migration, and regional planning. This study has introduced the concept of leverage points and employed both the gray system model and the system dynamic (SD) model to reveal the threshold of WRECC and capture the coupling relationship between the population growth system and the WRECC system in Hongsibao County, China. Three typical scenarios were designed for distinct purposes and simulated by the constructed SD model in Hongsibao County from 2021 to 2030. The results indicate that the quantity of water resource carrying capacity, rather than the quality, is a critical shortcoming hindering socioeconomic sustainability in Hongsibao County. Threshold and leverage point analysis showed that the increased development speed scenario performed the worst in terms of WRECC (28.02 × 10 4 persons in 2021) and leverage point (23.65 × 10 4 persons in 2026). The steady development scenario is considerably more effective for improving WRECC and boosting system recovery and conditioning, and the steady development scenario performs the best in both aspects. To achieve stable development, priority actions are necessary. Firstly, it is imperative to improve agricultural water-saving irrigation rates while addressing soil salinization in Hongsibao County. Secondly, efforts should be directed toward developing the grape industry, breeding industry, and wolfberry industry to stimulate economic growth while avoiding excessive water consumption. Finally, promoting the establishment of comprehensive sewage disposal infrastructure in rural areas is vital for protecting the water environment.
... Due to climate change, flood and drought-related acute food insecurity and malnutrition have increased in Africa (Langsdorf et al., 2022). Africa's low-lying coastal zones and their artisanal fishing communities are very vulnerable to floods (Adelekan & Fregene, 2015). Urban communities have been documented to be affected by a combination of high tides and high rainfall in upstream areas that cause damage to housing, especially to informal settlements, and infrastructure in for example the coastal town of Mombasa in Kenya (Okaka & Odhiambo, 2019) and the Western Cape Province of South Africa (Dube et al., 2021). ...
... Small-scale fisheries are very vulnerable to floods caused both by flash floods from upstream catchments, heavy rainfall and by sea level rise, which has been studied and documented in for example Bangladesh (Islam et al., 2021), Vietnam (Thanh et al., 2004), Nigeria (Adelekan & Fregene, 2015), and in small-scale reef fishing in Madagascar and Kenya (D'agata et al., 2020). Common for these studies is that they focus on factors determining the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of coastal fishing communities. ...
Current and projected flood risks are significant and growing due to climate change, increasing the need for flood risk management measures. These measures could potentially have negative impacts on coastal environments and coastal communities. This report, commissioned by SwAM, the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management, focuses on the linkages between flood risk management and the blue economy in Somalia. The results show that measures such as nature-based solution and strengthening of planning and preparedness could strengthen the blue economy of Somalia while avoiding negative trade-offs.
... Moreover, while overall precipitation is projected to decrease in West Africa, heavy precipitation events are expected to occur more frequently and intensively according to scenarios considering medium to high emission levels, which leads to accumulated hydroclimatic stress through drought and flood events in the region (Trisos et al. 2022;Giorgi et al. 2019). Already, floods cause a wide variety of impacts in West Africa, such as damaged buildings, disruption of livelihoods, damaged goods, fatalities, displacement, sickness and spreading of diseases, damaged infrastructure and crop damage (Wagner et al. 2021;Afriyie et al. 2018;Brisibe and Pepple 2018;Addo and Danso 2017;Ahadzie et al. 2016;Enete et al. 2016;Adewole et al. 2015;Adelekan and Fregene 2015;Codjoe et al. 2014). With regards to the financial implications of flood impacts in the Lower Mono River Basin (LMRB) in particular, it was found that floods regularly affect households financially through agricultural (lost investments through loss and destruction of crops and plantations, loss of livestock), material (repair and replacement cost for damage or destruction of residential houses and personal material belongings), health (sickness and subsequent payment for medical care), and commercial/trade impacts (lost income from damaged stored products for sale, lack of market access, and affected marketplaces) . ...
Floods portray a severe problem in the riverine areas of West Africa while more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events are projected under climatic change scenarios. Already, floods cause manifold impacts, leaving the population to cope with the financial impacts of floods through their own means. As formal risk transfer mechanisms (e.g., insurance) are not yet widely available to the population, efforts to increase their accessibility are being intensified. However, studies assessing flood insurance demand currently mostly focus on regions with more established markets. Also, they are majorly applying conventional statistical modeling approaches that consider only a small number of parameters. Contrarily, this study aims to provide an approach for assessing flood insurance in a context of low previous exposure to such products, to allow for a better consideration of the research context. Therefore, a parameter selection framework is provided and machine learning and deep learning models are applied to selected parameters from an existing household survey data set. In addition, the deep learning sequential neural networks outperformed all machine learning models achieving an accuracy between 93.5—100% depending on the loss function and optimizer used. The risk to be covered, insurance perception, no access to any source, access to support from community solidarity funds, access to governmental support, or drawing upon own resources for financial coping, financial recovery time, lack of means and prioritizing more essential needs emerged as important model parameters in researching insurance demand. Future roll-out campaigns could consider the parameters pointed out by this study.
... For example. extractive industries set up along rivers and coastlines (e.g. for extractive fishing enterprises) are prone to flooding from rising sea levels -a global climate change phenomena (Adelekan and Fregene 2014). Heat exposure risk from outdoor extractive work is also increasing because of climate change-induced temperature rises, in extractive orientated settlements (Nunfam et al. 2019). ...
... Flood awareness through previous flood disaster experiences and people living in flood-affected and flood-prone areas is commonplace and resonates with the high return period of flooding (Adelekan, 2011). Fluvial and coastal flood types often result from water rising in the rivers (mostly River Ogun) and flooding the surrounding lands (Bashir et al., 2012;Adelekan & Fregene, 2015;Komolafe et al., 2015). ...
... The reality of flood risk with its noxious fusion of risk factors, socio-economic vulnerability, and susceptibilities in the developing countries brings about distress amongst hundreds of thousands of internally displaced human populations. Like a spectre of untamed fury, floods through torrential surface runoffs impede economic activities, destroy dwellings, and other physical assets, inflict inappreciable destruction on local communities' mainstay, values, and culture (Adelekan & Fregene, 2015;Balgah et al., 2023). Investigating ways to reduce flood risk is an extensive area of research, and the existing literature contains major attempts (Alfieri et al., 2018;Grigg, 2023). ...
Flooding continues to ravage communities and leave societies driven by quest towards a more likely solution to flood threats. The need to accommodate both the provision of fundamental human needs and the core values and functions of the natural environment, for instance, controlling floods, puts emphasis on sustainability and illustrates the worth of ecosystem-based approach to flood risk management in locations inhabited by almost half a million people in danger of flooding. This study aims to assess the awareness of ecosystem services in the Ogun State of Nigeria and how a sustainable appropriation of the natural resources can aid local flood risk mitigation and control. The study employed a mixed-method approach through a thorough literature search to gather secondary data and a semi-structured questionnaire to source primary data from a population of 1483 participants in the study area. From the analyses, a considerable proportion of the participants (∼70%) possess a profound knowledge of flood risk and are aware of local flood abatement and ecosystem services. Based on all measured variables, only less than half of the sampled respondents identified with the idea of ecosystem, although just about 43.6% of the sampled population failed to grasp that exploring more efficient ways of using natural resources can aid in tackling flooding in the study area. With this outcome in mind, the area under study can only attain a holistic flood risk management framework by making ecosystem-based flood risk management the centrepiece of local flood risk mitigation policy and practice. This research suggests a new angle to help incorporate ecosystem service into local FRM, fortify the resilience of communities and adapt indigenous methods and assets for flood risk mitigation economy and regulation.
... Global trends in climate change and its expression at the local level combined with other direct anthropogenic stressors provide considerable pressure on coastal zones (Turner et al., 1996;Wu et al., 2002;Nicholls et al., 2007;Adelekan and Fregenen, 2014). Accelerated sealevel rise (SLR) has gained more consideration including frequent floods, raised tidal inundation, speedy erosion, intruding saltwater, increasing water tables, and a set of ecological changes (Dolan and Walker, 2006). ...
... Ann Zanetell and Knuth (2004), Allen (2006), Dumaru (2010), Westerman et al. (2012), Khan (2013), Reid and Huq (2014), Keys et al. (2014), Kirkby et al. (2015), Elrick-Barr et al. (2016), Haque (2017), Karim and Thiel (2017), Khan (2017), Cinner et al. (2018), andHussein et al. (2020) has addressed different dimensions of CBA and building the adaptive capacity of coastal fishing communities. However, Brugere et al. (2008), Coulthard (2008), Adelekan and Fregenen (2014), Parasuraman et al. (2016), Balasubramanian (2018), Mounika (2019), and Makesh (2020) have addressed vulnerability and adaptive capacity of small-scale fishing communities in particular, to changing climate and SLR. Regardless of its importance, the understanding of communicating SLR risk and building capacities of local small-scale fishers such as artisanal fishers remain limited (Islam et al., 2014). ...
... While the approach used in this study could be adopted for studying other areas, the methods and results of this study could be appropriate for use as a model for planning and raising the awareness of the local communities on how to impede and cope with SLR and its impacts (Panpeng and Ahmad, 2017) through effective climate services. The understanding of the climate service approach adopted relevant to the SLR risk communication and capacity building of artisanal fishing communities highlighted in this study, therefore, has the prospective to inform policy-relevant recommendations that would advance CBA both in the present and possible future (Adger, 2006;Kelly and Adger, 2000;Ribot, 2011;Smit and Wandel, 2006;Adelekan and Fregenen, 2014) at the local level in line with national and state coastal climate adaptation policies. ...
Accelerated rise in sea levels due to changing climate threatens the communities located in the low-lying coastal regions. Small-scale fishing communities such as artisanal fishing communities are vulnerable to the risk of sea-level rise. Climate services are considered to be effective instruments to communicate such risks and enhance the capacity of local communities. However, the application of climate services to build capacities of artisanal fishing communities remains sparse. In this context, this study attempted to address the risk of rising sea levels and building capacity of artisanal fishing communities of Ennore region in Chennai situated on the east coast of India, as a case study. The study has addressed the following research questions: What sea-level rise risk information is required? How should it be communicated effectively? and how efficiently climate services can be utilized to enhance the capacities of communities to rising sea levels? BASIEC coastal climate service framework methodology has been adopted. Sea-level rise risk campaign and adaptation workshops were served as climate service platforms to create awareness through narratives and visualization techniques as risk information, communication and education strategies. By adopting participatory techniques such as citizen science and pair-wise ranking methods, the study has identified and prioritized community-based adaptation strategies to sea-level rise. As a climate service, this case study provides a model to communicate the sea-level rise risk and build capacities of artisanal fishing communities in adaptation decision-making. The approach and methodology of this study are valuable for facilitating climate services to empower coastal communities.
... Floods generally result from the interaction of physical processes, including certain hydrological preconditions, meteorological or climate factors, runoff generation processes and river routing at different scales (Nied et al. 2014). While floods are initiated by precipitation excess or dam failure (Kunkel et al. 1999;Ologunorisa 2001;Ologunorisa & Tersoo 2006;Adelekan and Fregene 2015;Albright and Crow 2019;Tei et al. 2020), the effects are largely exacerbated by blocked drainage systems and poorly planned settlements, among other urban planning problems (Costa 1985;Brown and Graham 1988;Adelekan 2011;Atufu and Holt 2018;Asiedu 2020;Latrubesse et al. 2020). ...
Flooding events in the Lower Benue valley of Nigeria are often associated with huge damage to properties and loss of life in the adjoining communities. Objectives were to (i) examine the characteristics of rainfall and discharge at the major river in the study area – Benue trough of Nigeria; (ii) assess the occurrence of extreme rainfall conditions and other flood-triggering/exacerbating factors in the area; and (iii) determine flood damage extent and available warning system in the area. Specific reference was made to the 2017 flood event in the area. Method used was an integrated environmental approach that combines analysis of rainfall and discharge data with social surveys, remote sensing and geographical information system. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) as well as flood damage curves were analysed with landuse/cover change and soil data to establish the nature of the flood and its impacts. Result showed that rainfall has increased in the study area in October – December and February (b ≤ 0.13) but has decreased in the other months, albeit insignificantly (R sq. < 0.5). Rainfall-runoff relationship at the gauge station was weak (b = 16.67, R sq. = 0.21), indicating the influence of antecedent soil moisture content at the gauge station while the well-drained nature of the soil, its sedimentary geology and land use/cover analysis would indicate the dominance of infiltration-excess flow. The results of the SPI and PCI, which categorized the study area as largely wet during the study period (13.5% of the years classified as extremely wet and 54.1% wet), as well as high record of consecutive rain days revealed the vulnerability of the area to flood hazards in the wet months. 85% of the vulnerable residents are considerably poor, earning an equivalent of US $4.3 daily, and live in non-reinforced concrete masonry (64%) and wooden buildings (24%). The study recommends extensive flood control policy for the area and similar flood-prone communities.
... According to the study, vulnerability is also strongly correlated with adaptive capacity and sensitivity. Several studies have also focused on assessing the vulnerability to climate shocks at national and sub-national levels (Adelekan & Fregene, 2014;Morand et al., 2012;Senapati & Gupta, 2017 (Adato et al., 2006;Giesbert & Schindler, 2012). One approach would be to weigh indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity objectively by their marginal contribution to households' wellbeing with explicit attention to the greater vulnerability of poor households. ...
Focusing on economic methods, this study provides a comprehensive review of the current research in fisheries and aquaculture within the context of climate change. We find there has been remarkable progress in evaluating the biophysical impacts of climate change on fish. However, the effect those impacts have on future fish stocks, yields, and dynamics are less understood. Climate change adaptation strategies in fisheries and aquaculture lack quantitative assessment, while current vulnerability indices rely heavily on subjective weighting schemes. Economic studies involving fisheries and aquaculture have seen some recent advancements but can be improved through incorporating methods from other disciplines, notably agricultural economics. Relative to its increasingly large role in global fish supply, the aquaculture sector is found to be under-represented in the economic literature. We suggest that future research in fisheries and aquaculture should further incorporate methods from agricultural economics, focus on the economics of aquaculture, and refine interdisciplinary research methods such as bioeconomic modelling.
