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Extreme dry and wet spell analysis across Europe. (a), (b) Duration of extreme dry (wet) spells. (c), (d) Changes in the duration of extreme dry (wet) spells as percentage change per decade with reference to the duration in 1958. (e), (f) Average within-year timing of extreme dry (wet) spells in the period 1958–2017. (g), (h) Changes in the within-year timing of extreme dry (wet) spells as days per decade with reference to the timing in 1958. Results of (c), (d), (g) and (h) are shown as means across hexagons. Black dots represent the rain gauges examined with locally significant (green) and field significant (magenta) sites.
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Dry spells are sequences of days without precipitation. They can have negative implications for societies, including water security and agriculture. For example, changes in their duration and within-year timing can pose a threat to food production and wildfire risk. Conversely, wet spells are sequences of days with precipitation above a certain thr...
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Citations
... However, the corresponding increase in the evapotranspiration (2%/°C) is often di cult to meet the moisture Liu et al., 2022). However, changes in dry spells exhibit complex geographical patterns over different regions (Wang et al., 2014, Breinl et al., 2020, Zeng and Sun, 2021. ...
... Prolonged dry spells have been observed over South and North China (Zhang et al., 2015, Zeng andSun, 2021), the Indian monsoon region (Singh et al., 2014), the south central and southwestern parts of the United States (Breinl et al., 2020), and Russia (Ye, 2018). Conversely, dry spells have become shorter across the northern and eastern parts of the United States, Northwest China, and Europe and Australia are also dominated by decreasing trends in the length of dry spells (Cheng et al., 2015, Huang et al., 2015, Breinl et al., 2020. ...
... Prolonged dry spells have been observed over South and North China (Zhang et al., 2015, Zeng andSun, 2021), the Indian monsoon region (Singh et al., 2014), the south central and southwestern parts of the United States (Breinl et al., 2020), and Russia (Ye, 2018). Conversely, dry spells have become shorter across the northern and eastern parts of the United States, Northwest China, and Europe and Australia are also dominated by decreasing trends in the length of dry spells (Cheng et al., 2015, Huang et al., 2015, Breinl et al., 2020. Interestingly, the responses of dry spell durations to global warming are not able to be fully interpreted using the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, and the causes of the spatially heterogeneous variations in the changes in the dry spell durations remain unclear. ...
Dry spells have negative implications for water security and agriculture. Climate changes associated with increasing temperature and precipitation variations lead to changes in dry spell durations. The variability of the dry spell duration during the rainy season (May–October) over the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) was analyzed, and the contributions of the temperature and precipitation changes with respect to the trend in the total duration of dry spells (TDDS) were quantified using linear regression methods. The results indicate increasing trend in the with a rate of 0.9 days/10 year over the entire ICP. Nevertheless, the trends presented great spatial variability, and 37.4% and 10.7% of the peninsula presented significant increasing and decreasing trends at the 95% confidence level, respectively. Climate warming has led to a considerable elongation of the dry spells during the rainy season at a rate of 5.3 days/°C, and areas with precipitation less than 1000 mm and higher than 2000 mm generally show faster increases. The change rates are clearly asymmetrically distributed with the dry spell duration, with hotter rainy seasons witnessing more frequent long-duration dry spells. On the other hand, considerable increasing precipitation shortens the dry spells, while decreasing precipitation facilitates the dry spell extension caused by rising temperatures. As the climate continues to warm, hotter rainy seasons will favor more frequent and prolonged dry spells, which will further exacerbate drought and heat waves over the ICP. These research results are expected to provide reference for agricultural activities, water resources management, and disaster prevention over the ICP.
... The analysis of dry and wet spell characteristics (i.e., occurrence and duration) provides insight into sustainable hydro-environmental planning and management. Several attempts have been made to quantify spatiotemporal changes in wet and dry spells as well as the associated alterations in precipitation pattern [18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] . For instance, the spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation patterns in India has indicated that the duration of the maximum dry/wet spell had changed significantly (having either increased or decreased), while no signs of change were found in total precipitation events from 1906 to 2010 26 . ...
Extended periods of hydro-climate extremes with excessive or scarce rainfall associated with high or low temperatures have resulted in an imbalanced water cycle and inefficient socio-economic systems in several regions of Iran. However, there is a lack of comprehensive investigations on short-term to long-term variations in timing, duration, and temperature of wet/dry spells. This study bridges the current gap through a comprehensive statistical analysis of historical climatic data (1959–2018). Results indicated that the negative tendency of the accumulated rainfall (− 0.16/ − 0.35 mm/year during the past 60/30 years) in 2- to 6-day wet spells had made significant contributions to the ongoing downward trend in annual rainfall (− 0.5/ − 1.5 mm/year during the past 60/30 years) owing to a warmer climate condition. Warmer wet spells are likely responsible for precipitation patterns changes in snow-dominated stations since their wet spells temperature has more than threefold growth with increasing distance to coasts. The most detected trends in climatic patterns have started in the last two decades and become more severe from 2009 to 2018. Our results confirm the alteration of precipitation features across Iran due to anthropogenic climatic change, and suggest expected increase in air temperature would likely result in further dry and warm conditions over the coming decades.
... The duration and magnitude of wet/dry spells varies with climatic zones and that there was no clear monotonic trend in wet/dry spells over Akobo Basin of Ethiopia (Kebede, et al, 2017). Although the underlying mechanisms can be complex, Changes in the timing of wet days and dry spells can for instance pose a threat to food production, water de cit, crops, sowing and developmental stages(Troy et al., 2015, Korbinian Breinl et al, 2020. The extraordinary wet days increase risks of ooding and extreme dry spells contribute to droughts and their various impacts. ...
Extreme Rainfall is crucial for Crop production and food security in Eastern Africa. This paper seeks to investigate the changes and variability in wet days and dry spells over the IGAD region. Data used are Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). Several statistical methods and wet days and dry spells thresholds at ≥ 1mm applied on decadal (10 years), 20, 30 and 41 years. The results show that decrease in the number of wet days lead to longer dry spells. The majority of districts in Uganda, southwestern South Sudan, southwestern zones in Ethiopia, highlands of western and Nyanza counties in Kenya observed the highest number of wet days (50–70 days) and lowest consecutive dry spells (0–1 spells). Uganda and South Sudan are the two countries with lowest variability on wet days (highest variability in dry spells). Again, South Sudan and Uganda, most parts of Ethiopia, highlands of western Kenya observed 90–100% probability of exceeding 7 and 14 days (1 and 2 spells) during March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and September-November (SON). Northeastern Kenya and Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, most parts of Eritrea and Djibouti observed less than 5% of probability under 7, 14,21,28 days (1,2,3,4 spells). In addition, most parts of the region observed decreased number of wet days in the 1980s and 1990s, while the last decade (2011–2020) experienced an increase during MAM and JJA. These findings are important for rain-fed agriculture, supplementary irrigation planning and food security in the IGAD region.
... In most regions of the world, extensive droughts triggered by climate change are predicted to intensify within the next few decades [9]. An increase in length of duration of dry periods in Eastern Europe and indications for prolonged dry periods in continental Croatia were reported recently by Breinl et al. [38]. Therefore, improvement in drought tolerance in wheat will be of great importance in the following years. ...
Extended drought affects the production and quality of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), one of the world’s most important food crops. Breeding for increased drought resistance is becoming increasingly important due to the rising demand for food production. Four old traditional Croatian wheat cultivars were used in the present study to examine the early antioxidant response of flag leaves to desiccant-stimulated drought stress and to identify drought-tolerant cultivars accordingly. The results indicate that the enzymatic antioxidant system plays the most significant role in the early response of adult wheat plants to drought stress and the removal of excessive H2O2, particularly GPOD and APX. Nada and Dubrava cultivars revealed the strongest activation of the enzymatic defense mechanism, which prevented H2O2 accumulation and lipid peroxidation. Additionally, the Nada cultivar also showed increased synthesis of proline and specific phenolic compounds, which both contribute to the increased stress tolerance. Among the cultivars investigated, cultivar Nada has the broadest genetic base, which may explain why it possesses the ability to activate both enzymatic and non-enzymatic defense mechanisms in an early response to drought stress. This suggests that old traditional wheat cultivars with broad genetic bases can be a valuable source of drought tolerance, which is especially important given the current climate change.
... Particularly, long-term drought spells, hot drought events, flash droughts, and mega-heatwaves like in 2003, 2010, between 2018 and 2020, and recently in summer 2022 provoke persistent landcover transformations that amplify faunal and floral aggravation and land degradation, and consequently force socio-cultural adaptation (Barriopedro et al., 2011;Fischer et al., 2021;Ionita & Nagavciuc, 2021;Lin et al., 2020;Luterbacher et al., 2004;Miralles et al., 2014;Pereira et al., 2017;Quesada et al., 2012;Rasmijn et al., 2018;Schumacher et al., 2019;Shah et al., 2022;Sousa et al., 2020;Zhou et al., 2019). Parallel to this, the number of severe flood events and the frequency of wet spells increased over the past decades with significant regional variability across Europe (Breinl et al., 2020;Dai et al., 1998;Dietze et al., 2022;Kahle et al., 2022;Zolina et al., 2010). The development of rapidly occurring and long-lasting extremes poses particularly high challenges on the ecosystem's adaptive mechanisms. ...
Europe witnessed a strong increase in
climate variability and enhanced climate-induced
extreme events, such as hot drought periods, mega
heat waves, and persistent flooding and flash floods.
Intensified land degradation, land use, and landcover
changes further amplified the pressure on the environmental
system functionalities and fuelled climate
change feedbacks. On the other hand, global satellite
observations detected a positive spectral greening
trend—most likely as a response to rising atmospheric
CO2
concentrations and global warming. But
which are the engines behind such shifts in surface
reflectance patterns, vegetation response to global
climate changes, or anomalies in the environmental
control mechanisms? This article compares long-term
environmental variables (1948–2021) to recent vegetation
index data (Normalized Difference Vegetation
Index (NDVI), 2001–2021) and presents regional
trends in climate variability and vegetation response
across Europe. Results show that positive trends in
vegetation response, temperature, rainfall, and soil
moisture are accompanied by a strong increase in
climate anomalies over large parts of Europe. Vegetation
dynamics are strongly coupled to increased
temperature and enhanced soil moisture during winter
and the early growing season in the northern latitudes.
Simultaneously, temperature, precipitation, and
soil moisture anomalies are strongly increasing. Such
a strong amplification in climate variability across
Europe further enhances the vulnerability of vegetation
cover during extreme events.
... Particularly, long-term drought spells, hot drought events, flash droughts, and mega-heatwaves like in 2003, 2010, between 2018 and 2020, and recently in summer 2022 provoke persistent landcover transformations that amplify faunal and floral aggravation and land degradation, and consequently force socio-cultural adaptation (Barriopedro et al., 2011;Fischer et al., 2021;Ionita & Nagavciuc, 2021;Lin et al., 2020;Luterbacher et al., 2004;Miralles et al., 2014;Pereira et al., 2017;Quesada et al., 2012;Rasmijn et al., 2018;Schumacher et al., 2019;Shah et al., 2022;Sousa et al., 2020;Zhou et al., 2019). Parallel to this, the number of severe flood events and the frequency of wet spells increased over the past decades with significant regional variability across Europe (Breinl et al., 2020;Dai et al., 1998;Dietze et al., 2022;Kahle et al., 2022;Zolina et al., 2010). The development of rapidly occurring and long-lasting extremes poses particularly high challenges on the ecosystem's adaptive mechanisms. ...
Europe witnessed a strong increase in climate variability and enhanced climate-induced extreme events, such as hot drought periods, mega heat waves, and persistent flooding and flash floods. Intensified land degradation, land use, and landcover changes further amplified the pressure on the environmental system functionalities and fuelled climate change feedbacks. On the other hand, global satellite observations detected a positive spectral greening trend—most likely as a response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming. But which are the engines behind such shifts in surface reflectance patterns, vegetation response to global climate changes, or anomalies in the environmental control mechanisms? This article compares long-term environmental variables (1948–2021) to recent vegetation index data (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), 2001–2021) and presents regional trends in climate variability and vegetation response across Europe. Results show that positive trends in vegetation response, temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture are accompanied by a strong increase in climate anomalies over large parts of Europe. Vegetation dynamics are strongly coupled to increased temperature and enhanced soil moisture during winter and the early growing season in the northern latitudes. Simultaneously, temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture anomalies are strongly increasing. Such a strong amplification in climate variability across Europe further enhances the vulnerability of vegetation cover during extreme events.
... Particularly, long-term drought spells, hot drought events, flash droughts, and mega-heatwaves like in 2003, 2010, between 2018 and 2020, and recently in summer 2022 provoke persistent landcover transformations that amplify faunal and floral aggravation and land degradation, and consequently force socio-cultural adaptation (Barriopedro et al., 2011;Fischer et al., 2021;Ionita & Nagavciuc, 2021;Lin et al., 2020;Luterbacher et al., 2004;Miralles et al., 2014;Pereira et al., 2017;Quesada et al., 2012;Rasmijn et al., 2018;Schumacher et al., 2019;Shah et al., 2022;Sousa et al., 2020;Zhou et al., 2019). Parallel to this, the number of severe flood events and the frequency of wet spells increased over the past decades with significant regional variability across Europe (Breinl et al., 2020;Dai et al., 1998;Dietze et al., 2022;Kahle et al., 2022;Zolina et al., 2010). The development of rapidly occurring and long-lasting extremes poses particularly high challenges on the ecosystem's adaptive mechanisms. ...
Europe witnessed a strong increase in climate variability and enhanced climate-induced extreme events, such as hot drought periods, mega heat waves, and persistent flooding and flash floods. Intensified land degradation, land use, and landcover changes further amplified the pressure on the environmental system functionalities and fuelled climate change feedbacks. On the other hand, global satellite observations detected a positive spectral greening trend—most likely as a response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming. But which are the engines behind such shifts in surface reflectance patterns, vegetation response to global climate changes, or anomalies in the environmental control mechanisms? This article compares long-term environmental variables (1948–2021) to recent vegetation index data (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), 2001–2021) and presents regional trends in climate variability and vegetation response across Europe. Results show that positive trends in vegetation response, temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture are accompanied by a strong increase in climate anomalies over large parts of Europe. Vegetation dynamics are strongly coupled to increased
temperature and enhanced soil moisture during winter and the early growing season in the northern latitudes. Simultaneously, temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture anomalies are strongly increasing. Such a strong amplification in climate variability across Europe further enhances the vulnerability of vegetation cover during extreme events.
... These results corroborate the findings of Breinl et al. (2020) which reported significant changes in the duration and intensity of extreme dry and wet spells for the US, Europe and Australia. ...
Understanding the spatiotemporal changes of climate extremes is essential for managing climatic risk. In the present study, trends of annual and seasonal climate variables along with extreme temperature and precipitation were examined in eight climatic stations of Meki watershed, the Central Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia during the period 1981 to 2020. A set of 20 precipitation and temperature extreme indices were selected and computed in RClimDex package of the R program to detect climate extreme events. The recent method of Innovative trend analysis, the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test, and Sen's slope estimator were applied to evaluate trends of the annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature. The result indicates that the annual precipitation has been decreasing in 71% of climatic stations and 43% of these stations showed a significant trend. The annual minimum temperature declined in 75% of the stations, whereas all stations indicated a significant increasing trend in annual mean maximum temperature. The Mann–Kendall test detected a significant increasing and decreasing trend in most of the temperature and precipitation extreme indices respectively. For the temperature extremes, more frequent warm and fewer cold temperature extremes were observed. In more than 75% of the climatic stations, a considerable drying trend was found for the precipitation extreme indices. Besides, stations with significant warming and drying trends were located in the downstream areas of the watershed. Overall, this study proved that the observed warming trend in mean annual temperature contributed to changes in the normal thresholds of extremes. The change in precipitation and temperature extremes have increased the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events in most of the stations. Likewise, climate extreme events that occur more frequently with high intensity are likely to exacerbate climatic risks, which require proper planning of risk management strategies in Meki watershed.
... Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) is proven as a suitable precipitation forcing in such regions (Wang et al., 2016). The threshold is set as 0.1 mm to classify wet or dry days (Breinl et al., 2020;Tabari et al., 2021). The location of 15 stations and their wetness fractions from 1979 to 2005 are presented in Table S1. ...
Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation is important for assessing the impact of climate change. However, some issues (e.g., the underestimation of extremes) limit statistical downscaling methods to project daily precipitation accurately. This study develops an integrated hybrid statistical downscaling models combined with bias correction and Bayesian model averaging (named as SDBC-BMA) for improving the ability of downscaling methods. The performance of SDBC is compared with regression based statistical downscaling methods (RSDM) and hybrid statistical downscaling methods (HSDM) based on different performance metrics and extreme indices. SDBC-BMA is applied to the Amu Darya River Basin (ADRB) to demonstrate its feasibility and capability, where three GCMs and two CMIP6 scenarios are considered. Several findings can be summarized: (1) compared to RSDM and HSDM, SDBC is more robust with a higher computation ability of daily precipitation and a lower mean bias (i.e., +0.10 mm/day); (2) compared with the simple model average, the biases of extreme indices and mean daily precipitation obtained from SDBC-BMA could decrease by 49% and 88%, respectively; (3) the mean precipitation values would increase by 56±41 mm/year (under SSP245) and 126±55 mm/year (under SSP585) during 2076-2100, higher than mean precipitation in the historical period (1979-2005); (4) extreme indices under multi-GCMs (except for consecutive wet days) would increase by 20% (under SSP245) and 22% (under SSP585), implying that extreme events in ADRB are more frequent in the 21st century. The increasing risk of precipitation extremes would exacerbate threats to agricultural and ecological security.
... Similarly to above definition of frequent rain, wet spells are defined as >1mm precipitation per day over >5 consecutive days (TT-DEWCE WMO, 2016), i.e. a period of precipitation leading excess accumulation of higher water volumes. The same volumetric threshold yet without any threshold for duration of the event, is used by Breinl et al., (2020) and Zolina et al., (2013). (Figure 6). ...
... Meteorological dry periods have been defined as precipitation < 0.1mm (Breinl et al. 2020) and < 0 mm d -1 (Zolina et al. 2013) or as a period with less precipitation than normal (related to a reference period) (Salomon et al. 2019). The threshold for a dry period is often < 1 mm d -1 (Bärring et al. 2006; TT-DEWCE WMO 2016) or < 0.1 mm d -1 (Bärring et al. 2006;SMHI 2018;Stensen et al. 2019;Breinl et al. 2020). ...
... Meteorological dry periods have been defined as precipitation < 0.1mm (Breinl et al. 2020) and < 0 mm d -1 (Zolina et al. 2013) or as a period with less precipitation than normal (related to a reference period) (Salomon et al. 2019). The threshold for a dry period is often < 1 mm d -1 (Bärring et al. 2006; TT-DEWCE WMO 2016) or < 0.1 mm d -1 (Bärring et al. 2006;SMHI 2018;Stensen et al. 2019;Breinl et al. 2020). The latter is classed as the limit for measurable precipitation. ...
Abstract
Extreme weather events are per definition rare. These events are classified differently depending on sector and system of interest. Agrometeorological extremes consider the relation of potential and actual impact of weather events on crop development and yield. Climate change is changing todays’ extreme events in frequency, occurrence, and extent (intensity).
This document reviews definitions of extreme weather linked to agricultural production in the Nordics. The objective is to identify relevant agrometeorological indices of normal and extreme weather for assessing potential impacts on crop production in the temperate-boreal zone. The review is limited to indices related to the meteorological variables of precipitation and temperature.
The result show that definitions of agrometeorological extreme events used in literature are not standardized. The review found a substantial number of studies using typical meteorological definitions, especially linked to extreme precipitation and drought events (n =19 of 22, and n = 9 of 13 individual definitions respectively), even when the application was intended to assess potential agricultural (crop) impacts. In total, n = 33 publications for Nordic and global sources were reviewed with 44 % of definitions addressed temperature, 40 % addresses precipitation and 14 % related to combination of two or more c weather features (such as aridity index).
Unlike meteorological and hydrological indices, agrometeorological indices need to reflect intra-seasonal frequency and intensity of events, to inform crop and animal husbandry management. Relevant high-resolution agro-climatic assessments is necessary to inform agricultural adaptation strategies and investments in temperate-boreal zones, when todays’ extreme weather becomes the new normal.
