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Extreme dry and wet spell analysis across Australia. (a), (b) Duration of extreme dry (wet) spells. (c), (d) Changes in the duration of extreme dry (wet) spells as percentage change per decade with reference to the duration in 1958. (e), (f) Average within-year timing of extreme dry (wet) spells in the period 1958–2017. (g), (h) Changes in the within-year timing of extreme dry (wet) spells as days per decade with reference to the timing in 1958. Results of (c), (d), (g) and (h) are shown as means across hexagons. Black dots represent the rain gauges examined with locally significant (green) and field significant (magenta) sites. To facilitate the interpretation of results, colors in in (e) and (f) match those in figures 2(e), 2(f), 3(e) and 3(f) season-wise.
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Dry spells are sequences of days without precipitation. They can have negative implications for societies, including water security and agriculture. For example, changes in their duration and within-year timing can pose a threat to food production and wildfire risk. Conversely, wet spells are sequences of days with precipitation above a certain thr...
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Climate change and human development may lead to a serious crisis in food security in China, especially in areas with both water shortages and large grain production. Thus, the quantitative evaluation of future food security risk considering water scarcity is increasingly important. Here, we combined water scarcity and crop production data under di...
Citations
... Global warming is predicted to alter the intra-annual variability in precipitation patterns around the globe (Pendergrass et al., 2017). In the mid-latitudes, these changes are leading to increased summer weather persistence with longer dry and wet spells compared to historic averages (Zolina et al., 2013;Coumou et al., 2018;Pfleiderer et al., 2019;Breinl et al., 2020;Hoffmann et al., 2021). Such shifting precipitation regimes (PRs) will likely alter the functioning of many terrestrial ecosystems because of the accompanied changes in soil water and nutrient dynamics (Knapp et al., 2008;Borken and Matzner, 2009;Felton et al., 2021). ...
Global warming is altering the intra-annual variability of precipitation patterns in the mid-latitudes, including a shift towards longer dry and wet spells compared to historic averages. Such fluctuations will likely alter soil water and nutrient dynamics of managed ecosystems which could negatively influence their functioning (e.g., productivity and fodder quality). Here, we investigated whether basalt addition could attenuate effects of increasingly persistent precipitation regimes (PR) on two agricultural grassland monocultures differing in drought resistance (low: Lolium perenne (LP) vs high: Festulolium (FL)) and digestibility (high: LP, low: FL), while improving soil C sequestration. In total, 32 experimental mesocosms were subjected to either a low (1-day wet/dry alternation) or a highly (30-day wet/dry alternation) persistent PR over 120 days, keeping total precipitation equal. In half of these mesocosms, we mixed basalt with the top 20 cm soil layer at a rate of 50 t ha−1. Overall, 30-day PR increased average water availability resulting in improved aboveground biomass and shoot digestibility for both species, in spite of elevated physiological stress. These PR also increased shoot Si, K, N and C but reduced Ca accumulation. Basalt addition generally increased soil Al, Ni, Mg, Ca, P, K and Si availability without altering root biomass or total soil carbon. Moreover, differences in root N content and C:N ratio between species were reduced. Interestingly, basalt modified the PR effects on productivity. Within 30-day PR, basalt stimulated aboveground biomass (±14%) and root Si and K contents without altering plant digestibility, palatability, crude protein content or Ni/Al content. These results indicate that basalt can stimulate grassland productivity and soil nutrient availability under more persistent PR without negatively affecting fodder quality. Hence, basalt application may improve the performance of young temperate grassland monocultures under climate change, though dry soil conditions may limit effects on soil C sequestration during summer.
... Rainstorms and associated flood events have major impacts on various water quality constituents and are also changing in their frequency and intensity in several regions owing to climate change 79,80 . In small river basins, short-duration, high-intensity rainstorms tend to increase with expected increases in flood hazard in a warmer climate 81 . ...
Climate change and extreme weather events (such as droughts, heatwaves, rainstorms and floods) pose serious challenges for water management, in terms of both water resources availability and water quality. However, the responses and mechanisms of river water quality under more frequent and intense hydroclimatic extremes are not well understood. In this Review, we assess the impacts of hydroclimatic extremes and multidecadal climate change on a wide range of water quality constituents to identify the key responses and driving mechanisms. Comparison of 965 case studies indicates that river water quality generally deteriorates under droughts and heatwaves (68% of compiled cases), rainstorms and floods (51%) and under long-term climate change (56%). Also improvements or mixed responses are reported owing to counteracting mechanisms, for example, increased pollutant mobilization versus dilution during flood events. River water quality responses under multidecadal climate change are driven by hydrological alterations, rises in water and soil temperatures and interactions among hydroclimatic, land use and human drivers. These complex interactions synergistically influence the sources, transport and transformation of all water quality constituents. Future research must target tools, techniques and models that support the design of robust water quality management strategies, in a world that is facing more frequent and severe hydroclimatic extremes.
... Given the strong relationship between precipitation seasonality and terrestrial mammal richness, our findings indicate the need for additional research on the impacts of precipitation seasonality on local and global biodiversity. Precipitation seasonality is expected to shift in many ecosystems under climate change (Breinl et al., 2020;Pascale et al., 2016). However, projected changes to precipitation seasonality have been understudied compared to other potential impacts of climate change (Parmesan et al., 2022), making it difficult to predict how trophic richness could vary geographically under changing precipitation regimes. ...
Understanding environmental drivers of species diversity has become increasingly important under climate change. Different trophic groups (predators, omnivores and herbivores) interact with their environments in fundamentally different ways and may therefore be influenced by different environmental drivers. Using random forest models, we identified drivers of terrestrial mammals' total and proportional species richness within trophic groups at a global scale. Precipitation seasonality was the most important predictor of richness for all trophic groups. Richness peaked at intermediate precipitation seasonality, indicating that moderate levels of environmental heterogeneity promote mammal richness. Gross primary production (GPP) was the most important correlate of the relative contribution of each trophic group to total species richness. The strong relationship with GPP demonstrates that basal-level resource availability influences how diversity is structured among trophic groups. Our findings suggest that environmental characteristics that influence resource temporal variability and abundance are important predictors of terrestrial mammal richness at a global scale.
... According to dry/wet-spell lengths analyses covering the years 1960-2010, western Central Europe (incl. Germany) showed no dominance of dry weather conditions in contrast to southern and eastern Europe (Zolina et al. 2013) and wildland-fire prone regions worldwide (Breinl et al. 2020). The temperate and semi-humid climate is the main reason why Germany was less vulnerable to wildfires in the past (see also Dawson and Goldsmith (2018) for the world map of annual number of wet days (≥0.1 mm/day)). ...
Background Increasing extreme weather events due to climate change require updated environmental monitoring and prediction systems in Germany. Aim The Grassland Fire Index (GLFI), developed by the German Meteorological Service ~15 years ago for temperate climates, was revised to improve fire-danger predictions during the fire season. Our paper gives insight into the new model version. Methods The former fire-behaviour core, i.e. Fosberg’s Fire Weather Index (FWI), is replaced by the standardised fire-reaction intensity, a different fuel-moisture of extinction term, and a replica of the fire-spread rate of the Canadian FFBP-System. A standardised ease-of-ignition index is added as a measure of ignition success. The fire module is supplied with diurnal dead-grass fuel-moisture calculations based on the water-budget and energy-balance concept. Key results The GLFI output is compared with diurnal fuel-moisture measurements and results of Wotton’s Grass-Fuel-Moisture model, Fosberg’s FWI, and Cheney’s rate of spread equation. The GLFI computes periods with a high fuel moisture more realistically, whereas it exceeds Cheney’s rate-of-fire spread systematically at lower wind speeds, which leads to higher danger ratings during calm-air conditions (as requested by users). Conclusions and Implications The GLFI estimates dead-fuel moisture and fire danger on open, horizontal topography according to the current scientific level. Model extensions are necessary to run the model on complex topography under varying greenness and occasional frost conditions.
... Previous studies of wet/dry spells primarily focused on trends in spatial and temporal distribution of these spells at various scales, such as global (Dai et al., 1998;Giorgi et al., 2011), continental (Han et al., 2019;Ratan & Venugopal, 2013;Vogel et al., 2021), national (Breinl et al., 2020;Ho et al., 2018;Yang et al., 2021;Zolina et al., 2013) and district scales (Li et al., 2021;Singh et al., 2014). During the late 20th century, precipitation during wet spells and prolonged dry spells has increased significantly in many regions. ...
Spatiotemporal changes in wet and dry spells had significantly contributed to climate‐related natural hazards in East Asia, especially in river basins undergoing warming. However, few studies have systematically analysed these changes for river basins at different latitudes. Herein, we investigated the observed and projected variations in wet and dry spells for East Asian river basins at different latitudes. We found that river basins at low latitudes (Yangtze and Pearl rivers) had obvious wet characteristics, whereas those at high latitudes (Amur and Yellow rivers) had obvious dry characteristics. In general, the river basins presented a ‘wet south but dry north’ spatial pattern. Long‐duration wet spells have been shown to be the primary contributor to total wet spells in low‐latitude river basins, while long‐duration dry spells have been found to be the primary contributor to total dry spells in high‐latitude river basins. Importantly, climate is changing from prolonged wet spells to short, intense wet spells in low‐latitude river basins, whereas the climate is changing from single, short dry spells to moderate, prolonged dry spells at high latitudes. These changes indicate a high probability of flash floods in river basins at low latitudes and a high probability of droughts at high latitudes. In the future, more temporally clustered heavy precipitation events and prolonged dry spells may lead to increasingly uneven precipitation in high‐latitude river basins and the Pearl River basin, especially under the higher shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. In contrast, more frequent consecutive heavy precipitation events may aggravate the risk of flooding in the Yangtze River basin. These findings are expected to serve as a guide for flood and drought risk mitigation in East Asia under a warming climate.
... However, the corresponding increase in the evapotranspiration (2%/°C) is often di cult to meet the moisture Liu et al., 2022). However, changes in dry spells exhibit complex geographical patterns over different regions (Wang et al., 2014, Breinl et al., 2020, Zeng and Sun, 2021. ...
... Prolonged dry spells have been observed over South and North China (Zhang et al., 2015, Zeng andSun, 2021), the Indian monsoon region (Singh et al., 2014), the south central and southwestern parts of the United States (Breinl et al., 2020), and Russia (Ye, 2018). Conversely, dry spells have become shorter across the northern and eastern parts of the United States, Northwest China, and Europe and Australia are also dominated by decreasing trends in the length of dry spells (Cheng et al., 2015, Huang et al., 2015, Breinl et al., 2020. ...
... Prolonged dry spells have been observed over South and North China (Zhang et al., 2015, Zeng andSun, 2021), the Indian monsoon region (Singh et al., 2014), the south central and southwestern parts of the United States (Breinl et al., 2020), and Russia (Ye, 2018). Conversely, dry spells have become shorter across the northern and eastern parts of the United States, Northwest China, and Europe and Australia are also dominated by decreasing trends in the length of dry spells (Cheng et al., 2015, Huang et al., 2015, Breinl et al., 2020. Interestingly, the responses of dry spell durations to global warming are not able to be fully interpreted using the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, and the causes of the spatially heterogeneous variations in the changes in the dry spell durations remain unclear. ...
Dry spells have negative implications for water security and agriculture. Climate changes associated with increasing temperature and precipitation variations lead to changes in dry spell durations. The variability of the dry spell duration during the rainy season (May–October) over the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) was analyzed, and the contributions of the temperature and precipitation changes with respect to the trend in the total duration of dry spells (TDDS) were quantified using linear regression methods. The results indicate increasing trend in the with a rate of 0.9 days/10 year over the entire ICP. Nevertheless, the trends presented great spatial variability, and 37.4% and 10.7% of the peninsula presented significant increasing and decreasing trends at the 95% confidence level, respectively. Climate warming has led to a considerable elongation of the dry spells during the rainy season at a rate of 5.3 days/°C, and areas with precipitation less than 1000 mm and higher than 2000 mm generally show faster increases. The change rates are clearly asymmetrically distributed with the dry spell duration, with hotter rainy seasons witnessing more frequent long-duration dry spells. On the other hand, considerable increasing precipitation shortens the dry spells, while decreasing precipitation facilitates the dry spell extension caused by rising temperatures. As the climate continues to warm, hotter rainy seasons will favor more frequent and prolonged dry spells, which will further exacerbate drought and heat waves over the ICP. These research results are expected to provide reference for agricultural activities, water resources management, and disaster prevention over the ICP.
... The analysis of dry and wet spell characteristics (i.e., occurrence and duration) provides insight into sustainable hydro-environmental planning and management. Several attempts have been made to quantify spatiotemporal changes in wet and dry spells as well as the associated alterations in precipitation pattern [18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] . For instance, the spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation patterns in India has indicated that the duration of the maximum dry/wet spell had changed significantly (having either increased or decreased), while no signs of change were found in total precipitation events from 1906 to 2010 26 . ...
Extended periods of hydro-climate extremes with excessive or scarce rainfall associated with high or low temperatures have resulted in an imbalanced water cycle and inefficient socio-economic systems in several regions of Iran. However, there is a lack of comprehensive investigations on short-term to long-term variations in timing, duration, and temperature of wet/dry spells. This study bridges the current gap through a comprehensive statistical analysis of historical climatic data (1959–2018). Results indicated that the negative tendency of the accumulated rainfall (− 0.16/ − 0.35 mm/year during the past 60/30 years) in 2- to 6-day wet spells had made significant contributions to the ongoing downward trend in annual rainfall (− 0.5/ − 1.5 mm/year during the past 60/30 years) owing to a warmer climate condition. Warmer wet spells are likely responsible for precipitation patterns changes in snow-dominated stations since their wet spells temperature has more than threefold growth with increasing distance to coasts. The most detected trends in climatic patterns have started in the last two decades and become more severe from 2009 to 2018. Our results confirm the alteration of precipitation features across Iran due to anthropogenic climatic change, and suggest expected increase in air temperature would likely result in further dry and warm conditions over the coming decades.
... The duration and magnitude of wet/dry spells varies with climatic zones and that there was no clear monotonic trend in wet/dry spells over Akobo Basin of Ethiopia (Kebede, et al, 2017). Although the underlying mechanisms can be complex, Changes in the timing of wet days and dry spells can for instance pose a threat to food production, water de cit, crops, sowing and developmental stages(Troy et al., 2015, Korbinian Breinl et al, 2020. The extraordinary wet days increase risks of ooding and extreme dry spells contribute to droughts and their various impacts. ...
Extreme Rainfall is crucial for Crop production and food security in Eastern Africa. This paper seeks to investigate the changes and variability in wet days and dry spells over the IGAD region. Data used are Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). Several statistical methods and wet days and dry spells thresholds at ≥ 1mm applied on decadal (10 years), 20, 30 and 41 years. The results show that decrease in the number of wet days lead to longer dry spells. The majority of districts in Uganda, southwestern South Sudan, southwestern zones in Ethiopia, highlands of western and Nyanza counties in Kenya observed the highest number of wet days (50–70 days) and lowest consecutive dry spells (0–1 spells). Uganda and South Sudan are the two countries with lowest variability on wet days (highest variability in dry spells). Again, South Sudan and Uganda, most parts of Ethiopia, highlands of western Kenya observed 90–100% probability of exceeding 7 and 14 days (1 and 2 spells) during March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and September-November (SON). Northeastern Kenya and Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, most parts of Eritrea and Djibouti observed less than 5% of probability under 7, 14,21,28 days (1,2,3,4 spells). In addition, most parts of the region observed decreased number of wet days in the 1980s and 1990s, while the last decade (2011–2020) experienced an increase during MAM and JJA. These findings are important for rain-fed agriculture, supplementary irrigation planning and food security in the IGAD region.
... In most regions of the world, extensive droughts triggered by climate change are predicted to intensify within the next few decades [9]. An increase in length of duration of dry periods in Eastern Europe and indications for prolonged dry periods in continental Croatia were reported recently by Breinl et al. [38]. Therefore, improvement in drought tolerance in wheat will be of great importance in the following years. ...
Extended drought affects the production and quality of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), one of the world’s most important food crops. Breeding for increased drought resistance is becoming increasingly important due to the rising demand for food production. Four old traditional Croatian wheat cultivars were used in the present study to examine the early antioxidant response of flag leaves to desiccant-stimulated drought stress and to identify drought-tolerant cultivars accordingly. The results indicate that the enzymatic antioxidant system plays the most significant role in the early response of adult wheat plants to drought stress and the removal of excessive H2O2, particularly GPOD and APX. Nada and Dubrava cultivars revealed the strongest activation of the enzymatic defense mechanism, which prevented H2O2 accumulation and lipid peroxidation. Additionally, the Nada cultivar also showed increased synthesis of proline and specific phenolic compounds, which both contribute to the increased stress tolerance. Among the cultivars investigated, cultivar Nada has the broadest genetic base, which may explain why it possesses the ability to activate both enzymatic and non-enzymatic defense mechanisms in an early response to drought stress. This suggests that old traditional wheat cultivars with broad genetic bases can be a valuable source of drought tolerance, which is especially important given the current climate change.
... Particularly, long-term drought spells, hot drought events, flash droughts, and mega-heatwaves like in 2003, 2010, between 2018 and 2020, and recently in summer 2022 provoke persistent landcover transformations that amplify faunal and floral aggravation and land degradation, and consequently force socio-cultural adaptation (Barriopedro et al., 2011;Fischer et al., 2021;Ionita & Nagavciuc, 2021;Lin et al., 2020;Luterbacher et al., 2004;Miralles et al., 2014;Pereira et al., 2017;Quesada et al., 2012;Rasmijn et al., 2018;Schumacher et al., 2019;Shah et al., 2022;Sousa et al., 2020;Zhou et al., 2019). Parallel to this, the number of severe flood events and the frequency of wet spells increased over the past decades with significant regional variability across Europe (Breinl et al., 2020;Dai et al., 1998;Dietze et al., 2022;Kahle et al., 2022;Zolina et al., 2010). The development of rapidly occurring and long-lasting extremes poses particularly high challenges on the ecosystem's adaptive mechanisms. ...
Europe witnessed a strong increase in
climate variability and enhanced climate-induced
extreme events, such as hot drought periods, mega
heat waves, and persistent flooding and flash floods.
Intensified land degradation, land use, and landcover
changes further amplified the pressure on the environmental
system functionalities and fuelled climate
change feedbacks. On the other hand, global satellite
observations detected a positive spectral greening
trend—most likely as a response to rising atmospheric
CO2
concentrations and global warming. But
which are the engines behind such shifts in surface
reflectance patterns, vegetation response to global
climate changes, or anomalies in the environmental
control mechanisms? This article compares long-term
environmental variables (1948–2021) to recent vegetation
index data (Normalized Difference Vegetation
Index (NDVI), 2001–2021) and presents regional
trends in climate variability and vegetation response
across Europe. Results show that positive trends in
vegetation response, temperature, rainfall, and soil
moisture are accompanied by a strong increase in
climate anomalies over large parts of Europe. Vegetation
dynamics are strongly coupled to increased
temperature and enhanced soil moisture during winter
and the early growing season in the northern latitudes.
Simultaneously, temperature, precipitation, and
soil moisture anomalies are strongly increasing. Such
a strong amplification in climate variability across
Europe further enhances the vulnerability of vegetation
cover during extreme events.
