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Example of regression slope assessment of heat sensitivity using relative bi-monthly effective temperature (T eff ) as explanatory variable and relative changes of flowering onset (FO) as dependent variable. In this way the plants are comparable as thermometers for the same period. (Sp-7: Fragaria vesca; Sp-11: Euonymus europaeus; MA=T eff period; solid line=linear regression line; dotted line=line with a = -1 as a 45° slope)
Source publication
Eco-climatological studies recognise plant phenophases as high-confident climate indicators, since they are strongly dependent on heat conditions. We investigated the first flowering response of numerous plant species to inter-annual fluctuation of seasonal temperatures (e.g., heat sensitivity of the phenophase), also the rate of these species-spec...
Context in source publication
Context 1
... order to determine a rough but comparable indicator of heat sensitivity of FO, regression analyses were carried out on the time series of relative changes of FO and monthly, multi-monthly temperatures. Fig. 7 is an illustration for the regression slope assessment of sensitivity using relative monthly temperature and flowering changes. From a geometric aspect, heat sensitivity is the higher, the regression line fits the better to the 45° line, namely to the theoretic, perfect phyto-thermometer. Thus, in the example of the figure, Euonymus ...
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Citations
... Many research shows that temperature change significantly affects the life cycle of plants (e.g. Scheifinger et al. 2003, Kunkel et al. 2004, Hansen et al. 2006, Lehoczky et al. 2016. ...
... It is also very important to choose the correct methodology for the research. Primack (1985) Previous research on the Carpathian Basin (Keresztes 1984, Walkovszky 1998, Schieber et al. 2009, Eppich et al. 2009, Molnár et al. 2012, Varga et al. 2012, Lehoczky et al. 2016) did not follow Primack's method but still provided important data. Several previous studies (e.g., Menzel 2000, Roetzer et al. 2000, Walkovszky 1998, Eppich 2009) confirmed that flowering phases advanced during the 20th century, which is connected with the increasing temperature. ...
Global climate change has unforeseeable ramifications for the ecosystem of our home planet. In Europe, more than half of the vascular plant flora may become endangered by the year 2080 as a result of climatic changes. Urban climate conditions are considered similar to the changing global climate conditions. The concept of our study is based on the Space for Time Substitution method, utilizing its advantage of saving time and resources compared to long-term monitoring. To find out how excess heat in urban environments affects the phenological flowering patterns of species we planted specimens representing 6 different life-forms of the Raunkiær system (phanerophytes, chamaephytes, hemicryptophytes, geophytes, hemitherophytes, therophytes). Each category was represented by at least 5 species and each species by 5-5 specimens in Budapest, Füvészkert and in the MATE Botanical Garden of Gödöllo. All the species in the experiment averaged at 7.62 ˝ days earlier flowering onset in Budapest. The peak of the flowering had 12.94 days of difference, while the end of flowering had 2.9 days of difference, with the earlier being Budapest. There is a strong significant difference (P < 0.001) in the onset of the flowering of Globularia cordifolia between the locations, regarding the peaks of flowering there is a strong significance (P < 0.001) for Inula ensifolia, regarding the end of flowering there is a strong significance (P < 0.001) for Polygonatum multiflorum. To clarify other driving forces and the role of abiotic parameters in the flowering phenology patterns, further study is required.
... Many research shows that temperature change significantly affects the life cycle of plants (e.g. Scheifinger et al. 2003, Kunkel et al. 2004, Hansen et al. 2006, Lehoczky et al. 2016. ...
... It is also very important to choose the correct methodology for the research. Primack (1985) Previous research on the Carpathian Basin (Keresztes 1984, Walkovszky 1998, Schieber et al. 2009, Eppich et al. 2009, Molnár et al. 2012, Varga et al. 2012, Lehoczky et al. 2016) did not follow Primack's method but still provided important data. Several previous studies (e.g., Menzel 2000, Roetzer et al. 2000, Walkovszky 1998, Eppich 2009) confirmed that flowering phases advanced during the 20th century, which is connected with the increasing temperature. ...
Global climate change has unforeseeable ramifications for the ecosystem of our home planet. In Europe, more than half of the vascular plant flora may become endangered by the year 2080 as a result of climatic changes. Urban climate conditions are considered similar to the changing global climate conditions. The concept of our study is based on the Space for Time Substitution method, utilizing its advantage of saving time and resources compared to long-term monitoring. To find out how excess heat in urban environments affects the phenological flowering patterns of species we planted specimens representing 6 different life-forms of the Raunkiaer system (phanerophytes, chamaephytes, hemicryptophytes, geophytes, hemitherophytes, thero-phytes). Each category was represented by at least 5 species and each species by 5-5 specimens in Budapest, Füvészkert and in the MATE Botanical Garden of Gödöllő. All the species in the experiment averaged at 7.62 days earlier flowering onset in Budapest. The peak of the flowering had 12.94 days of difference, while the end of flowering had 2.9 days of difference, with the earlier being Budapest. There is a strong significant difference (P < 0.001) in the onset of the flowering of Globularia cordifolia between the locations, regarding the peaks of flowering there is a strong significance (P < 0.001) for Inula ensifolia, regarding the end of flowering there is a strong significance (P < 0.001) for Polygonatum multiflorum. To clarify other driving forces and the role of abiotic parameters in the flowering phenology patterns, further study is required.
... Nejedlik and Szalai (2009) presented 53 phytophenological stations available from the 19th century extending over the entire currently studied region over a wide spatial and elevation range from the Adriatic coast up to the Carpathian mountain belt. However, only isolated records have been evaluated thus far, for instance from Croatia (Vucetic and Vuceti c, 2006) or Romania (Lehoczky et al., 2016). To fill in the many gaps in the presently available records is a major task for the future. ...
A systematic compilation of temperature (n = 10) and moisture sensitive (n = 4) proxy records of the Northern Balkan–Carpathian (NBC) region with annual resolution for the past millennium is presented and evaluated. The proxy-climate relationship is re-evaluated using a uniform climatological dataset providing a longer calibration. The originally determined response seasons were in the most part verified. Spectral constraints were established by combining wavelet coherence analysis and band filtering, thus, the signal-to-noise ratio was successfully improved in certain cases, either by separating the temperature/moisture sensitive frequencies in complex signals, and/or by extracting “focus” bands. In the case of winter temperature, the earliest available dates in the natural proxy records were 1774 AD, for spring and summer they were 1732 AD and 1040 AD respectively, while for hydroclimate this date was 1497 AD. Although only one record was available for winter, it showed a pronounced similarity to winter temperature reconstructions from adjacent areas outside the NBC. Spring thermal proxies were comprised of grape-vine phenology data from the Western NBC margin, these being in quite good agreement with each other, for instance, in the case of the characteristic mutual decadal pattern the mild springs of the 1750s. In addition, a common long-term cooling trend was observed, starting in the mid-18th century and ending at the turn of the 20th century. The comparison of summer temperature records indicated that proxies of the same origin/source tend to show a stronger mutual variation than those located close to each other, but of different types. This serves as a warning in the interpretation of climate field reconstructions from multiproxy networks.
The results of a phenology study of 78 species of perennial plants from biomorphological groups of chamaephytes, hemicryptophytes and geophytes over a 20-year period (1996—2015) are discussed. Against the background of air temperature and precipitation changes of the warm season in Novosibirsk, the timing shift in phenological events have been analyzed using calculated linear trends. It is found that the trends for species groups are multidirectional and vary significantly in magnitude. At the same time, most of the shifts in phenology are due not to trends, but to the interannual variability of climatic indicators.
